Pennsylvania minus one week

A merciful mid-campaign lull precluded the need for a “minus two weeks” thread, but things are well and truly picking up again now. Real Clear Politics’ Pennsylvania Democratic poll average has Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 47.4 per cent to 40.4 per cent, which is not as much as she would like. However, the most very recent poll from SurveyUSA puts it at 56-38 (UPDATE: Whoops, that’s not the most recent poll after all. There have been quite a few others since that have been around the RCP average). Statistical anomaly, or Obama’s elitist chickens coming home to roost? I report – you decide.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,655 comments on “Pennsylvania minus one week”

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  1. Glen, the stats tell a very different story. The Kid’s demographic is far far wider than that. Face it, he wouldn’t be this far ahead otherwise.

  2. Oh cmon you’re telling me that the black vote in Philadelphia won’t give Obama a big margin against Hillary??

    I know whites are voting for him but blacks are voting for him in droves for obvious reasons and they are his core voter group just as senior whites are Hillary’s.

  3. Yeah, that’s wrong Glen. While Obama will win the black vote handsomely, he is also tied with Hillary, even in PA, in that new forgotten minority of white men. Women, and particularly older women, are where Hillary’s advantage is.

  4. Make it lively tomorrow during the count guys – I will be flying about remote regions of the state and only able to see the blog on my phone (but can’t post). I reckon it should be possible to pick up what happens from you lot, though, to say the least – in fact I’ll probably know more about it, and earlier, than most people on the planet ๐Ÿ™‚
    It is sobering to note, as you have HarryH, that it will probably all grind on and on after tomorrow.

  5. Finns

    #1604

    The greatest fighter of all time gave Bert Newton a look when he called him ‘boy’
    but Ferny does have form #1092

    Glen
    #1601

    Finns #1594 poll figures were accurate , so the following blog to yours had no relevance to what you said. The stats tell the story Finns quoted

  6. #1067 Ron, if I were a Obama supporter, i would be really pissoff for my candidate to be called the Kid, especially if my candidate happens to be black.

  7. Time to hand out the medication again.

    6 Weeks! OMG, and look what we’ve got:

    Obama is black and you called him the Kid. 1 + 1 = 2

    …are you sure Finn?

    Did you say “+”, and “=”?

    Sure about that?

    Can you go and check for us, as it’s VERY important, and well, you seem so smart with this stuff.

    Could you do 2+2 for us, if you’re not too busy? Please?

  8. 1611 That’s funny, I thought Obama was a candidate who happened to be black. So Hillary has no race? That must be because she’s white and therefore her race is invisible.

  9. Finns – You are being absurd and abnoxious about this ‘kid’ business. When I lived in New Guinea before independence, the whites there still used the term ‘boy’ as in ‘house boy’ etc.. This term goes back a long way into the unpleasant world of slavery and colonisation. Never did I hear the use of ‘kid’ as a synonym, and believe me, I heard every possible variation and abusive term for the indigenous peoples.
    ‘Kid’ refers to youth, not colour, and you are being dishonest to suggest it is a substitute for ‘boy’ in the sense of its use as a racial slur. That’s why it doesn’t appear in the ‘Racist Slur Database’ linked below. What you are attempting says a lot more about you than anyone else here.

    http://www.rsdb.org/

  10. Hi PBs

    My prediction that even a Pa state-wide vote Clinton:Obama of 54:46%, Obama can still win a narrow majority (net 3) of Delegates in the 161 available.

    Here are the calcs:

    35 delegates split according to state-wide result: Clinton 19: Obama 16
    20 PLEOs (pledged elected officials) Clinton 11: Obama 9
    3 unpledged delegates Clinton 2 : Obama 1

    Sub Total Clinton 32 : Obama 26

    There are 19 Electoral Districts with number of delegates available varying from 3 to 9. Those districts with a high African American demographic, high youth demographic because of university campuses will favour Obama as follows

    Electoral District Avail. Delegates Clinton Obama

    1st 7 2 5
    2nd 9 2 7
    3rd 5 3 2
    4th 5 3 2
    5th 4 2 2
    6th 6 2 4
    7th 7 4 3
    8th 7 2 5
    9th 3 2 1
    10th 4 2 2
    11th 5 3 2
    12th 5 3 2
    13th 7 4 3
    14th 7 2 5
    15th 5 2 3
    16th 4 2 2
    17th 4 2 2
    18th 5 3 2
    19th 4 2 2

    Totals 103 47 56
    Sub Total (from above) 58 32 26

    Clinton 79 Obama 82

    Adding this projection to the existing delegate count
    Clinton 1508 Obama 1647

    we get Clinton 1587 Obama 1729

    with Hiliary still in denial and Obama steadily increasing his delegate lead.

  11. 1620 that’s ‘obnoxious’ not ‘abnoxious’. I’m not suggesting anything is wrong with your abs. I’m sure you have a 6-pack Finns.

  12. Off subject but relevant to the issue of the nature of Whitehouse Administrations and why a change now may well be a good thing at the right time.

    Seems that if Rumsfeld or Cheney were in the Whitehouse at the time of JFK then the USA would be a backwater right now.

    McNamara on SBS telling that nuclear war was a hairs breadth away on 3 occasions and, one General adviser was telling JFK to attack Cuba (theyh didn’t know until 1992 that they had heaps of nuclear bombs there already and Castro had recommended they be used.) Makes a good case that an ex-General should never be Secretary of Defence or an ex-head of a defence company either. Seems it was lucky the USA had their first? non military SoD at the time.

  13. Umm…KR…the Pope give encyclicals or even decrees. Edicts are given by sovereigns.

    And I thought you were a republican Billbowe.

  14. 1628

    Ferny, you’ve not read:

    The Papal Edict of 1054

    Excommunicating the Patriarch of Constantinople

    ????

    It was a big hit, and divided the Eastern and Western churches for the last 1,000 years.

  15. Ferny – They don’t get any tougher than Malleus Malficarumthat Pope Innocent VIII wrote for the Inquisition, which must have been the most bullish papal bull, although you could argue that that anti-contraception ones of more recent times cause more misery in total.
    Those bulls make a benevolent ruler like William look very soft with his rules!

  16. Thats OK William ,

    I was replying to Finns question to me in #1608 and as you know it was a long post. when it went into ‘moderation’ , I checked back & saw your edict & realised I’d wasted my time but thats fine

  17. Vote1Maxine #1623

    We are on opposite sides here , however that was an outstanding job. You’ve highlighted the quirk in their Primary system of mulit level apportionment. the same may have occured in Texas.

    However under the POTUS system with 2 exceptions , Hillary would win all
    electoral college votes and even a 1% win by her is sufficent to claim she wins the big States & the more important ones like Ohio & Florida which is why for mine a 1% win is sufficent for her because Obama & her have thrown everything at this Primary

  18. Thanks Ron, however I beg to differ. 51 : 49 Clinton : Obama would give Obama at least a 5 delegate majority excluding recalculating the Electoral Districts delegates (I’m too tired). Don’t forget Ron that Clinton at one stage had a 20 point lead over Obama and PA is regarded as a Clinton strong hold. Anything less than a 10 point lead by her would be regarded as a poor result. A 1 point lead as a disaster. Time to put on my Obama pajamas and dream of an Obama upset in PA lol.

    Good night all. tomorrows gonna be riverting.

  19. Vote1Maxine
    #1645

    Maxine , my second paragraph was referring to the Nov election when a different count system is applied ie the winner if Hillary (or Obama indeed for that matter) even by 1% gets all electoral college votes. Therefore I was saying a 1% win in this Primary is all she needs to argue she has won another big State & therefore can get all electoral Penns. college votes in November

    Now in termss of delegates won for Primary purpose if it was 1% , then you are correct. As to the former 20 or 10 point lead that will be Obama’s story naturally. But the alternative argument is its been a 7 week campaign and the side at the end of the game (even a footy game) no matter the margin is the winner. Obama would prefer to be in Hillarys shoes with a win than not which tells you who has the best story to tell (despite what the journos spin is from both sides

    Obama to be fair will have his bragging rights in North Carolina & with a big margin

  20. 1645
    Catrina

    RCP now has Obama up by 10pts nationally.

    There’s a faint smell of desperation in the Clinton campaign, as she does a Rovian style slap, and I think Dems who aren’t rusted on to her will start to turn.

  21. Talent and brains enough to get a really sharp team together who could get the country electrified. Some talent! But more than that, he’s got the ability to be himself, and he’s very likeable. God, just the thought of ending the Bush disaster and putting someone with that talent in the Whitehouse is enough to inspire hope! LOL

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