Pennsylvania minus one week

A merciful mid-campaign lull precluded the need for a “minus two weeks” thread, but things are well and truly picking up again now. Real Clear Politics’ Pennsylvania Democratic poll average has Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 47.4 per cent to 40.4 per cent, which is not as much as she would like. However, the most very recent poll from SurveyUSA puts it at 56-38 (UPDATE: Whoops, that’s not the most recent poll after all. There have been quite a few others since that have been around the RCP average). Statistical anomaly, or Obama’s elitist chickens coming home to roost? I report – you decide.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,655 comments on “Pennsylvania minus one week”

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  1. Glen at 1550
    Gosh – and here was I thinking that it was Guy Fawkes (the white Catholic guy) that started all of the terrorism thing.

  2. Well some say it started in Palestine where the locals carried out ‘terrorist attacks’ against the Romans or the Persian tribe the ‘Assassins’ but nevertheless.

  3. Welcome Glen ,

    As a Liberal opponent I have found you to be flexible & sound in your views (even though we’ve often disagreed) which is mortre han I can say for the Obamabots so do not let them scare you off with numbers

  4. Finns

    re Kirri , you would be disappointed if I did not use one of your famous lines so I will

    Kirribilli #1518
    Ahem, the US GDP is close to $15 trillion.
    I rest my case

    Ron: Then you just lost your case , the total US economy is under 14 trillion
    You just got the Barry Hall punch Kirri.

  5. Year Eight, the Reign of The Imbecile.
    April 22, Day of the Dem Penn. Primary.

    “When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.” HST.

    Fine weather augers well for a monster turnout. Team Obi are pumped and ready to rumble. The Kid’ll attract enough Joe and Jane Six-Packs, oldies, Rock Choppers and Fudd Elmers in the Allentown Belt and rural areas for his clear advantage in Philly (and to a lesser extent, Harrisburg and Pittsburgh) among young-uns, blacks and bourgeoisie to get him first past the post to win it by a lip.

    50.5/49.5, Obi over Brutusina.

    Super Ds will be magnetised by a combination of Democratic Induction, the political dumbness of being associated with a loser (never a good look in America) and what will come to be referred to as the “Coalescence of the Willing”. As a consequence, Senator Duck-Clinton will be staring down both barrels of a sawn-off Remington-SD and invited to drop off then make nice soon after. Pointblank politics will ensure that it’s an offer she can’t refuse. Enough of her imprinted followers will do what Mommie tells ‘em to, so that victory in November for The Kid over McBombster will be achieved without Dem voter dummy-spitting becoming a factor.

    Res Ipsa Loquitur.

  6. 1554
    Ron – yes i find it amusing the amount of animosity displayed over those backing Hillary Clinton and those who support Obama, especially when they should be more focused on winning the Whitehouse.

    I wouldn’t put it past Clinton to win by about 10% that would put the cat among the pigeons wouldn’t it, especially when Clinton is favoured in Indiana and Obama in NC. Plus it would reinforce the narrative that Obama can’t succeed in Big Swing States a must for any Presidential Candidate. One feels if Clinton wins PA by around 10% she’ll fight all the way to the nomination, especially if the MI and FL delegate issue has not been resolved.

    Even Obama has admitted he wont win but says it will be close now, if he performs badly in PA it won’t do him much good come November as McCain is looking good in the polls there and if the Republicans win PA yibbida-yibbida that’s all folks.

    On almost feels that it will go down to the Convention, but if Obama’s lead doesn’t change he should clinch it though in the end.

  7. #1555, Ron, be my guest. Unfortunately for KR, he is just a pretender, and a self appointing one, when comes to this:

    btw; GG, #1535 – love your [KR patent pending] bit, been doing a lot of that IPs stuff myself lately. But in this KR patent pending case, the I is sorely missing.

  8. 1556 EC [what will come to be referred to as the “Coalescence of the Willing”]
    Beautiful EC, just beautiful – the coalescence of the willing – that’s the expression; that’s what will carry Obama gloriously on to the nomination.

  9. Ron, ron, ron, you are having trouble with the modifier..”close to” as opposed to the number I saw you quote. If you meant it to mean anything other than US GDP then perhaps saying so in English would be a good idea.

  10. 1556
    Enemy Combatant

    That’s a brave call Ecky, and I’d be surprised, but very pleasantly! LOL

    Are there enough under 30’s to do it? In the second oldest (demographically) state in the country?

    Like I said, I’d be surprised.

    Although the Obama campaign has been nothing short of amazing to whittle her down this much, I can’t see the numbers it for him, but I can’t see the numbers in it for her either, (as in winning the nomination!)

  11. Ecky:

    According to exit polls conducted by Edison/Mitofsky in the states that have voted so far, 57 percent of voters 65 and older have supported Mrs. Clinton and 36 percent have supported Mr. Obama. Most of the Clinton voters say they want a candidate with experience.

    Of voters age 30 and younger, 59 percent have supported Mr. Obama and 38 percent have supported Mrs. Clinton. Most of Mr. Obama’s supporters say they want change.

    Part of the reason is simply identification with one’s own age bracket, which both candidates have tried to exploit.

    “This is classic generational politics,” said Gordon F. De Jong, a demographer at Pennsylvania State University. “Their identification with one candidate or the other has to do with the time when voters were socialized.”

    …it’s going to be hard with this old population, eh?

  12. Thanks, jv. Let’s hope so!

    Kirri, at first glance the generational divide thing would appear to cancel out each other’s support. I’m basing my bold prediction on the literally record-breaking numbers of new voter registrations among the under 30’s, their internet savvy and social connectedness via My Space, Face Book, You Tube, blogs and chat rooms, but most importantly because by a significant margin, the newbie registrants are Kid boosters. They get their pollie jollies and wise-up grabs from Jon Stewart and Steven Colbert et al.

    Booths are going to have to be kept open while these folks vote in uinprecedented numbers. This time tomorrow I’ll be eating crow pie or wailing like a Banshee for Brutusina’s blood.

    Bravado aside, I’ll be tickled pink if he can run her to less than 5 points.

  13. Now it’s Hillary The Great Obliterator. Make you feel warm and fuzzy, and relaxed about the future of your children, doesn’t it?
    Seriously though, is this the sort of talk that’s going to deliver a safer world?

    Clinton Threatens to ‘obliterate’ Iran if Israel Attacked

    Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton has threatened to “obliterate” Iran if it launches a nuclear attack on Israel, in an interview broadcast on US television.

    “I want the Iranians to know that if I’m the president, we will attack Iran,” Senator Clinton said when asked what she would do as president were Iran to launch a nuclear attack on Israel.

    “In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them.”

  14. Kirribilli #1518
    Ahem, the US GDP is close to $15 trillion.
    I rest my case

    Ron: Then you just lost your case , the total US economy is under 14 trillion

    Now Kirri ,
    I wrote my blogs #1499 & #1512 off the my cuff as is evident with the times
    and are based on economics. GG was correct & as I’ve said had Obama made the same choice you would have supported it. But hey, try your luck

  15. I can’t get over that cr*p from Clinton. It’s exactly the sort of belligerent arrogance we’ve seen from the neo-cons for the past 8 years. How could you let someone with that bully-boy approach near the white house after what has been happening. What she said is outrageous. Who’s coaching her now, Dick Cheney?

  16. 1563

    Good article, and as we’ve seen throughout a very well run campaign, the people he’s got are in a class of their own. Hillary’s camp on the other hand has been less than stella, and her choices telling.

  17. Res Ipsa Loquitur

    “Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton has threatened to “obliterate” Iran if it launches a nuclear attack on Israel, in an interview broadcast on US television.”

    Whats the problem ? Iran will in due course be able to reach Italy , then progressively France then Britain. Which Country shold the US draw a line in the sand in with the pre unmptive threat.

  18. There’s been movement in the polls this afternoon. RCP now has PA at Clinton 6% ahead – up from 5.7 this morning. Late swing to Hillary perhaps? Still a long way short of where she needs to be.

  19. jv, it’s what warmongers do. However, the Brutusina Bomb-Bomb routine was a brazen pitch to consolidate the J*wish hawk vote, while at the same time reassuring the Beltway and MIC that she’s their gal, and it will will be business as usual when the signing statement pen is in her hand and her pinky is on the red-button.

    A couple of months back she was tearing-up all over the 6 o’clock news to jag the sympathy vote in New Hampshire. Poor,poor,Hillary. But don’t mess with her or she’ll nuke you before you can say Shalom.
    “The PA primary is finally here, right? I’m not dreaming. I won’t wake up tomorrow and find out that it’s still Monday?—That my life is caught in a Groundhog day type loop where the PA primary is always just a day away and I have to go over the latest tracking poll numbers every twenty minutes while David Brooks keeps repeating his “war games” test for the presidency over and over and over again…”

    John Amato C & L

  20. Well we all know Obama would never use nuclear weapons…somebody should ask him if he’s in favour of nuclear disarmament?

    The Republicans have been sending out fund-raising emails with quotes from Hamas that voice support for an Obama Presidency…for obvious reasons.

    Clinton will have a better foreign policy than Obama’s and she wont take any crap neither. I see Obama as more of a push over someone with less backbone then what you need in a President/Commander in Chief. The last thing you want is a US President who looks like a push over especially with Russia flexing its muscles and China emerging.

    Obama has little if any foreign policy credentials and while his health plan i support over Clinton’s on the Democrat side…Hillary has a better foreign policy.

  21. Oh , a TLC , missed that 7 weeks , h….m

    Actually Barry Halls defence was he was swatting a fly and it was not his fault Sakers head happened to be there

    So I’d try that defence also.

    Which reminds me the actual demographics on Pennsylvania will be interesting to see how many (up to day ago) ex registered Repug voters and ex registered Independent voters actually became Democrat registerd voters in the lastweek
    This may end up in the Courts on voter manipulation claims

  22. 1575 [a brazen pitch to consolidate the J*wish hawk vote, while at the same time reassuring the Beltway]
    That’s of course all sadly true EC. She’d sell her mother into pompom dancing if it got a few more votes. But she’s already so welded to the Israel lobby you wouldn’t have thought such irresponsible loudmouthing was necessary.
    I see Barack has maintained his dignity, and hasn’t felt Hillary’s need to crawl up anyone’s *rse today.

  23. 1575
    Enemy Combatant

    Well, in answer to Hillary’s shot of testorone, well honey, if ya hadn’t invaded Iraq and freaked Allah out of the neighbours, maybe they wouldn’t be feeling so pressured, huh?

    As an historical note: Modern Iran has not invaded any country.

    And as for all that ‘wipe Israel off the map stuff’, 3 points:

    1. Ahmadinejad is a nobody, a symbolic head, who plays to the loony right
    2. There is no such expression in Farsi, and it is NOT what he said.
    3. There is a Jewish member of the Iranian parliament, and Jews that live in Iran.

  24. Codger, you’ve got a wicked wit you rotten old bastard! Vicious even.
    Like it a lot.
    It’s an Uncle Duke thing, Ferny. Doctors of Gonzo journalism, scholars, medical doctors and historians as well as mouth-pieces possess some facility with Latin. HST was wrong as often as he was right about “people and politics”, but gee he had fun writing about it. Some of his dispatches were pure Swift. No other political scribe has made me laugh till my gut hurt as much as he did in his heyday and occasionally still can. On song, no one even came close.

  25. JV

    I like it: She’d sell her mother into pompom dancing ! LOL

    But your serious point is noted; she’s doing a bloody Lieberman!

    She has no shame, nor pretends to have.

  26. Oh dear, his loftiness has come down to earth with a thud, thud, thud. so much for the new politic.

    Obama ‘brand’ has taken a hit
    Pennsylvania has seen some of the most dramatic moments of his campaign

    PHILADELPHIA — The Obama team has always been very conscious and protective of the Sen. Barack Obama “brand.” After a tough Pennsylvania contest, Obama’s brand is bruised. Obama is not as pristine as he once was. He’s had to deal with a series of controversies and he’s gone negative against Sen. Hillary Clinton — as she has attacked him. In this historic election, Obama’s high pedestal was cut down a few feet in Pennsylvania, his hardest fight so far.,CST-NWS-sweet22.article

  27. 1581
    Enemy Combatant

    Speaking HST, have you come across this guy:

    …he’s an old Yank journo, retired, living in Mexico with his Mexican wife and kid, and he drinks, smokes, and writes like diablo on mescal.

    Try a few of his columns (from the left hand menu) and you’re sure to find a few laughs…and a few head bangs!

  28. 1580

    As Dudley Moore sang:

    Laugh? We nearly shat!
    We haven’t laughed so much
    since grandma caught her left tit in a mangle

  29. Evening ‘bludgers

    It’s the calm before the storm tonight except for a little nervous, expectant cross-fire.

    Having been haunted by Nader handing victory to the Imbecile for eight years now, I emailed the Votemaster asking whether he felt he needed factor Nader into his comparisons. He sent back the following, which should make us Obamabots and you Clintonistas happy.

    “I think he will max out at 0.5% this time. He barely got 1% last time and Democrats understand they could actually win this time if they don’t do something stupid. But remember the states are all winner-take-all (except NE and ME) so if Obama gets 48%, McCain gets 47% and Nader got 5% all that matters is Obama got the most.”

    Of course, if Nader stole 5% of Obama’s 51% and dropped him to 46% against McCain’s 49%, his rosy scenario is gone the way of Ron’s rose-coloured glasses.

    BTW his real name is Andy Tanenbaum.

  30. Glen @ 1576 [Hillary has a better foreign policy]
    What, for more failed belligerence? That’s no substitute for diplomatic engagement and a desire to fix the world’s problems instead of inflaming them.

    Obama’s got plenty to say on foreign policy Glen, and it’s the only policy that has a glimmer of hope for improvement. Let’s face it the last thing we need is more of the same. A few policies and statements:

  31. Saw the god H on SBS tonight: ‘What we need at 3am is someone who got Iraq right, and the consequences oh and someone who read & understood the intelligence reports’ Paraphrased, no links but very funny & apt.

  32. Finns


    “as she has attacked him. In this historic election, Obama’s high pedestal was cut down a few feet in Pennsylvania, ”

    Ron says
    Cut down a few feet.
    Does this Obama cann’t look down on the working class any more

  33. Hi Dio, Ralph will only play if it’s close of course, although he’s more likely to pull votes from Obi than Bom-bom. First we must see Mrs Nuke-alot off then we deal with Ralph, however, I like the sound of Andy T’s, “I think he will max out at 0.5% this time”.

    Kirri, read one and got a chuckle, so I bunged him in favs and will try a couple a day to see if if he gets moorish. Thanks.

  34. State Pollster End date Clinton Obama
    Pennsylvania Zogby Apr. 21 51% 41%
    Pennsylvania Insider ADvage Apr. 20 49% 39%
    Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Apr. 20 51% 44%
    Pennsylvania Rasmussen Apr. 20 49% 44%
    Pennsylvania Suffolk U. Apr. 20 52% 42%
    Pennsylvania SurveyUSA Apr. 20 50% 44%

    avg: 50.3 vs 42.3 – My prediction Hillary by 12. Bring it on.

  35. HarryH says

    Obama’s “high pedestal” has been cut down so far that he has now rocketed to a 9.6% RCP average lead nationally.

    Devastating fo sho

  36. Dyno, you and Jen say Obi by 2, I reckon Obi by .5%. Think we’re the only 3 PBs who have tipped an upset, but wouldn’t bet on it.

    All will be revealed within 24 hours.

  37. Dyno & EC – you’ve joined Jen as the only ones among us brave enough to call an Obama win in PA.

    A month ago Hillary was between 15-20 points ahead. It’s been 5-6 for the last couple of days. Yesterday the average dropped to early 5’s. Today there’s a very small late swing back to Hillary which brings her back to 6.

    On the other side Finns has been brave too, with a 12 point prediction to Hillary.

    Obama has already conceded he can’t win, but is predicting a closer call than many are predicting. Word is his team have been working flat out in the cities to bring out the vote.

    Clinton by 7-8. Nowhere near enough, but she will keep going.

    …and we on PB will still be churning over the same ol’ same ol.

  38. FG, Obama is basically relying on the black vote in PA, face it it’s his core constituency and he’s banking on them coming out to vote to make it close.

  39. my Penn prediction.

    Hillary 53-47. Penn is Prime demography for Hillary.

    12 delegate pick-up.


    Groundhog Day. Hillary still a mile behind.

    Obama will win more net delegates from N Carolina and Indiana than Hill wins in Penn tomorrow.
    N Carolina and Indiana are open primaries to Democrats and Independants.

    2 more tedious weeks to go folks.

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