Morgan has simultaneously released results of face-to-face polling conducted over the previous two weekends, and a phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday. The former has Labor leading 49 per cent to 36 per cent on the primary vote and 59-41 on two-party preferred, compared with 61.5-38.5 at the previous such poll a fortnight earlier; the latter has Labor’s leads at 50 per cent to 34.5 per cent and 60-40, compared with 63-37 last week. In other news, political parties’ financial disclosure returns for 2006/07 have been published by the Australian Electoral Commission: Steven Mayne sifts through the evidence at Crikey (subscriber only).
Ron @ 82 said:
Dolly announced yesterdat he’ll be will be doing peaking tours in his black stockings for his fans so perhaps you can get a ticket before they all sell out
I’m not surprised. Seems Lord Downer of Mayo has fallen on hard times. He’s just put his ‘modest’ log cabin on the market. He’s trying to put on a brave face by claiming he and the missus just want to downsize now they’re empty nesters, but I know not all the kids have in fact left home.
It’s a pity they hung Saddam. I’m sure he would have been delighted to return previous favours by making a sizable contribution to poor ol’ Dolly’s relief fund.
And it seems that he’s not the only former Howard minister hurting. I understand a few are finding it hard to manage now they’ve had a $90,000 pay cut. $127,600 doesn’t go as far as it used to, especially with all that inflation thingy that Kevin07 is causing!!
Could it be that Glen’s frequent absences are because he’s taken on a second job to help his heroes out in their time of need? Must be hard to type and flip burgers at the same time. 😉
PS: I’ve not seen it myself, but Milord’s modest cabin may not be all that modest. He’s rumoured to have already knocked back a $1.1 mil offer.
ominod @95
Because they’d be drinking schooners, pots or midi’s at the local pub/club/bowlo/razzle – pints would be too inner-city (depending on your inner-city!).
But seriously, it depends on who you’re pitching too. The shenanigans in Lindsay are just what I would have thought would have cooked up at the local pub, and given the current fuss about muslim schools and hindu temples in Sydney’s south-west might even have played out positively in Macarthur (coz Pat Farmer needs all the help he can get!). That’s certainly unfair to the bulk of people who live in Lindsay and Macarthur, but seems to typify the kind of bravado and opinion expressed at too many pubs etc on a Friday afternoon/evening.
On another matter – anybody have any ideas about the next NSW poll to come out? Newspoll seemed to have every other state but no NSW. Iemma’s not up for a while, but we now have the electricity privatisation appearing to spark a revolt internally, so I’m more than curious about the public response.
102 Stewart J
sorry – you’re taking me with an American slant, and I’m Australian.
I’m not being literal about the pub and pints. In fact I wouldn’t know first hand what happens in a pub…
Politicians in general seem to be so genuinely disconnected from reality where honest people call it as it is, instead of couching everything in spin.
I’ve been told that Annabel Crab is a good measure of the past week.
Hopefully this post will end the line of dozens of silly ones preceding it.
The poll once again shows the popularity of Rudd. He still shines, the people still think much of him. How do interest rates / economy / SG apology come in? What do people think of that?
I think it’s mostly Rudd’s slick smiling face and the reprehensible Nelson, as I’ve said before.
Further to my 80, the following gem confirms real movement on the Lib side. Good for them because it is certainly good for Australia.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23144204-601,00.html
Is that so, Mayoferal, about Dolly?
Falling on hard times.
I’ll be at a party tonight, what a nice topic to discuss.
Hope the Bridgewater Mill survives without ‘our’ largesse, Dolly’s favourite caf. Not that Le holds anything but disgust for him and his.
PS. I was invited to a party at Mt Barker for tonight, in a Lair of Libs, which thankfully I had to decline, in view of one of the niece’s 30th, at Brighton. No concerns about majority at this venue.
But how lovely it could have been, at Mayo, in view of this information.
104 Michael
What do I think?
I think that’s a pretty limited analysis.
What do you think was being discussed before?
If you want to be simplistic, then interest rates are a bit of a non-issue since the emperor(s) has been revealed – it’s not like anyone in this country can do much about it now given the way the economy has been managed for the last decade; the sorry speeches are being pulled out of the drawer after being drafted just over a decade ago. The only reason sorry is even an issue is that the media has nothing but the libs bumbling on this issue (and the cricket) to talk about right now. The Rudd government is just getting the job of enacting election promises done in a very business like fashion.
I don’t think smiling has a lot to do with it at this point – it’s not like we’re approaching an election or anything.
If anyone feels like a small laugh on the side, go here http://blogs.news.com.au/news/splat/index.php/news/comments/john_howard_apologises_unreservedly_to_the_aboriginal_people/ and have chortle.
The quote is from a speech in 2000 made by “John Howard” – the actor – making an apology speech to the aborigines.
Half the Wingnuts don’t realise it and are making “the media covered this up… typical”, “the abos are only after the money” , “Rudd is all spin…” etc. type comments.
Hilarious in its own understated way.
BB
Truly incredible
but then WA (where most of the morons posting their bile originate)
did stay with the Rodent. 🙁
maybe they will “mature” next fed election
The narrowing that has occurred in the most recent poll IS real, and you need to look at it from the fact that it also has an in-built seven-point bias to Labor on two party preferred. Committing to an apology has not done Labor any favours; the vast majority of mainstream Australia opposes such a concept.
Re 101 MayoFeral
So, Lord Downer is finding it hard to Keep Up Appearances on his reduced stipend. A Liberal economic whizz – and he didn’t have the gumption to save money for the hard times he knew were coming after the election.
Are Libbos really that smart with money, or is it all a carefully constructed myth? … Wait, don’t bother, I think I know the answer!
Parlaiment hasn’t sat yet, which means in effect the new government has not taken their seats on the Government side of the house.
I just can’t wait to see them – Abbott, Costello, the Bishop’s,
Downer, Ruddock, et al, (and not Howard: because He Lost His Seat), on the Opposition Benches.
The reality has not even begun to sink in for The Coalition of HasBeens.
Nostradamus- forget it .
You guys haven’t even begun to feel your irrelevance.
114
jen
Is that a wee bit of advance gloating I detect there? LOL
114 Jen, I can see it now, Dolly Downer sitting in the back stalls knitting a tasteful pair of fishnets because his last sprung a snag dancing with Madeleine Not-too-bright; Ruddock reclining so thoroughly that you’d think he was not the walking dead any longer; Bronnie peeking into the makeup mirror to check the strength of the latest product her hairdresser has slipped her (under the counter); Costello practising his rogueish smile, the one that’s he’s mislaid somewhere under Tanya’s copy of ‘Clancy and the Overflow’ ; and where’s Unka Howie, Glen’s mentor and the meaning of it all? Oh it’s all too tragic….
if there is a full ‘sorry’ , are we then reconciled as one Country
with a disadvantaged group of white & black Australians needing practical solutions
or will we continue to be 2 nations of peoples…the original inhabitants & the colonialists
Apres@116
not forgetting
abbott praying that someone,anyone, thinks he has a heart;Jovial joe hockey wondering wether anyone will notice he been taking chunks out of abbott as they pass in the corridors;chris pyne wondering what all the fwuss and fwanfare wegarding wudd is,i mean weally!;Minchin trying desperately to stop anyone using pennypinching as in”minchin pennypinching” and not forgetting blondie bishop desperately hoping no-one will realise Nelson is dagwood bumstead
ps King Malcolm will be refining his famous double act-derail the republic(again) and the liberal leadership (again)
cant wait 🙂
117
I can’t see a lot changing overnight, but let’s hope we do become one country so we can all get on and build a decent nation for us all to live in.
Finger crossed it’s a good speech – anyone know who is in on the drafting?
But Gusface, will blondie bishop be able to continue to make her points of order
in the house with such an authorative air
Ron
my guess is she will resort to hypnotising them 🙂
111 Nostradamus – I don’t know why you think there will be a backlash for Labor. Firstly, people voted Labor in knowing they were going to do this and secondly half the Libs agree with Labor. Wrong again hey old boy?
as she is a strong supporter of the Admiral , perhaps she may use her hypnotising skills on his enemy Spiderman from Wentworth or would that be water of a ducks (spiders) back to him
Mr Bowe, is nostrils really back or are you making it up as you go along, as usual? Reaches for pinot grigio…and zimmer frame…oops
I would have thought that a civil post, whether we agree with the sentiments expressed or not, would at worst be met with civil argument, or be ignored.
I don’t see the need for expletives or personal attack unless it is provoked.
I have never agreed with a sentiment expressed by Nostradamus, but I feel an apology is owed to him.
Anyone up to saying sorry, or is that now a word reserved for political expediency?
The abusive comment to which FS refers, by Apres, has been deleted.
I think Nelson must try to get his party to unite behind the apology.
Whatever the merits of the apology, it’s a done deal, and an apology that is given, but not supported by all parties, is really going to leave a sour taste in the mouth.
William. You have mention that you feel the imbalance here at PB as far as bloggers input go’s between left & right point of view & the lack of right wing thinking bloggers. May I suggest you put out an invitation on coalition websites to recruit such types in order to re balance the perceived imbalance that you have mentioned. Glen & ESJ & co carry enough of the weight I’m sure. We need to stir the pot!
William. Any thoughts?
Actually onimod @ 108, I think Michael (104) is spot-on, although the adjective for Nelson is probably more “ineffectual” than anything else.
No-one’s been taking any notice of whether Rudd’s keeping promises or not, they’ve been more interested in what Harbajhan said to Symonds, or how Heath died, or …
Rudd just seems like a nice bloke and has done a few sensible things. And most of the uncommitteds are willing to give him a fair go.
Aussieguru re: 127
Most right wing blog commentors went to ground after that landmark day of 24 November (in some cases, even before). A lot to do with their pre-election bombastic bravado I suspect.
Those who are still around to carry the can tend to be more irrational than ever, shrill, mendacious and ungracious in defeat.
Still, it could be ‘interesting’ if any want to venture on over…
The Queensland Liberal Party’s State Council meets today with Opposition Leader Springborg urging them to consider amalgamation with the Queensland Nationals.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/springborg-gives-libs-a-hurry-up/2008/02/02/1201801103161.html
Sadly Rx,
Many posters/commenters see politics as a football game, ie my team wins your team loses.
It is also clear that there is a preponderance of people who favour the one football team, ie Labor. Coupled with this is an attitude that anyone who supports the other football team is immoral or stupid. Hence you often see refers to Repugs or other condescending references to the Liberals.
The reality is in recent months many of the more reasoned voices have either left the blog or have scaled back them comment. You do not see Hugo, LTEP, Dovif, Adam for example post comments much these days?
When you are convinced of the moral superiority of a political position that intolerance tends to kill debate or interesting thought or comment, in many respects the intolerant howard haters are in the ascendant on this blog and that is unfortunate.
I for one have commented that I thought Rudd was off to a great start but it would be sad if the one correct and acceptable position was to genuflect before his totem pole two months into the term.
Not a single parliamentary sitting day yet and already Labor is being blamed for an alleged (and maybe real, for all I know) downturn in the economy simply because they’re there.
What a beautiful argument: “You can’t elect Labor because they’ll ruin the economy. No matter how good it was when they got in, they’ll trash it.”
It’s in line with Howard’s “Interest rate will always be lower under the Coalition”. No need for (indeed no possibility of) proof. Untestable. A pure assertion to be planted in the minds of slow thinkers who (the Coalition hopes) are now in the throes of buyer’s remorse.
It’s plain now that howard let the election go so long and so late because he was hoping for a downturn. nd he nearly got one. The Sub-Prime mortgage fiasco started and the fizzled. It actually worked against him… everything seemed to be fixed so quickly, the punters thought we were impregnable… and so voted for Labor.
But as it becomes clearer and clearer that we were not ready and prepared for a downturn, that our schools, hospitals and higher education infrastructure had been ground down into the dust to preserve Howard’s war chest for more important things like baby bonuses, a new brick dunny for the Oodnagarlarbie Footy Club oval and $6 million to construct a Benny Elias wing for the Rugby League Hall of Fame, the penny will drop. Howard strung it out too long, issued too many bribes to too many disparate groups, played too many sections of society off against each other while the nation wore out from lack of maintainence. All Costello ever did was fine tune the Ferrari (a tweak here, a dab of oil there) when he should have retired the old racing car and invested in a new one that might be equipped to win races into the future.
Labor hammering this point home might be a good political tactic, but it also happens to be true: Howard let the country run to ruin, hoping for a miracle which never came.
I spoke to a young woman yesterday who said she thought “Rudd is a weenie”. When I pressed her as to what she meant she articulated her frustration that Rudd didn’t go around “telling people what to do.” Instead, she claimed, he asked people what he should do. She was 7 when Howard was elected, and all she knows is that Prime ministers threaten other people, purge their enemies and wisely come up with Murray-Darling-type plans off the back of an envelope and announce them suddenly “because otherwise the other side will find out about it and critiise it.” Oh my God, what have we come to when to consult and take advice means you’re “a weenie”?
This will be Howard’s legacy: the country has become, in the opinion of many who know nothing else, an extension of the PM’s mind. The prejudices, the crackpot ideas, the desperate policy ambushes – from Work Choices to Aboriginal Intervention – that characterized Howard’s last three years, all to the detriment of good governance, are how a nation should be run.
Humiliate the bastards Kevin & Co. There’s no time for polite discussion at the margins of things that might have been done better by Howard’s mob. Drag out every possible scandal and blunder they made (and there are plenty). If Howard’s Way is allowed to stand, or even to be only nibbled at, there’s a whole generation out there who’ll think you’re just a bunch of weenies.
Labor has won the war. Now they need to win the peace.
ESJ @132,
Once again, I find myself in violent agreement with the sentiments expressed. A few of the bloggers here have been supping at the keg of victory a bit long and seem on very good terms with themselves (morally superior, more knowledgeable, convinced of the supremacy of their own intellect).
While I like a degree of sledging and piss taking that can be feature of this blog, I too am disappointed at the intolerance represented by some of the comments. Repetitive abuse and 10,000 words without an editor do not make a debate.
Poll Bludger will live or die by the amount of spirited contributions made by as big a range of opinions as possible.
See you on the Blogging Boards!
Apologies if this has already been discussed but I was wondering about the size of both parties primary votes. It must have been a long time since Labor has gotten 49% of the primary vote in any poll. Can anyone fill me in on when that last happened?
Similarly, while 36% for the coalition is a large Labor lead, it means that the total for all minors plus undecided is only 15%. I would have thought that was low in recent years. Again, any knowleedge of how that compares.
Assuming that these are indeed unusually large shares of Labor support and low minor party votes, I will take a guess on why: now that we have finally seen some movement from both parties on several issues (climate change, apology, troops in Iraq) it presumably cuts into the minor parties support share that is basically a protest vote.
The next question is what does this mean? So just as people are talking (realistically IMO) about a Liberal – National Party merger, is it time for the minors to do the same? Should the Greens and Democrats finaly bury the hatchet and try to merge? Likewise, is there any point having a “climate change coalition” separate to the Greens?
and GG (the Ann Coulter of PB) has not sinned here , let alone our mini ‘rodent’
as reps of exclusive bretheren , many a ‘compliment’ u’ve showered me with
& with I guess a sadistic smile to wit.
the moral high ground is indeed in the eyes of the beholder
ESJ 132 and GG 134
I agree with your comments; there is a need for balance. I would make two comments though. Firstly, a backlash against the Liberals is understandable, given that they were frankly, a most unprincipled government and they certainly played the game hard against their opponents. When a government can have members carrying on like Senator Heffernan’s smear against Justice Kirby, or Kevin Andrews’ unlawfull use of his powers against Dr Haneef, and not punish the guilty in any way (both still in parliament at our expense), they should be thankful they are only disparaged and not incarcerated. So it is a bit like the schoolyard bully crying to teacher when someone fights back for Libs to complain too much now. We should have reasoned debate, but both sides have to come up with constructive comments for that to happen. Lets face it, there are trolls on both sides.
Second, the long term consequences of a lack of balance are very harmfull for all concerned. Having grown up in Joh-era Queensland I saw what lack of a competent opposition (Labor under Keith Wright and his cronies) could do to a government. Inevitable success led to arrogance, then corruption and finally downfall. I don’t want to see that happen to Rudd, and anyone who knows his past as head of the Qld Office of Cabinet under Goss kows it is possible. Similarly just as I was opposed to Howard and delighted to see him go, I also think that Labor state governments under Iemma and Bracks deserve the boot. Beatty should have lost too but the opposition was unelectable and I haven’t yet formed an opinion on Anna Bligh.
So yes I agree, we need balance and we need a debate about real ideas. But for the former to happen,I suspect a few apolgies are required, and for the latter to happen, lets hear the ideas concerned. If you put those ideas up, you will get an honest respnse from me and a few others here too I think.
regards
ESJ – “Hence you often see refers to Repugs or other condescending references to the Liberals.” That’s all well and good ESJ but haven’t you referred to Rudd as Krudd? Say no more.
GB,
Yes I did and I also referred to Howard as the rodent but I (after a comment from someone else on this blog) considered the practice and thought it was unworthy and ceased doing so in August of last year.
139 Edward StJohn – Well, I commend you on that and agree with you.
Socrates
thought you were alittle hard on Bracks re his record net of mistakes.Yemma yep
thought you were alittle soft on 132 & 134 on 2 grounds
Firstly, as we Labor people after 11 Howard years are entitled to our 5 seconds of joy & indeed gloating.
After 2004 , how many Libs were tut tutting
Secondly, my #136 was trying to softly say that these 2 who compaineth of being heavily sledged are 2 of the greatest sinners (as am I)
It is like the school boy bully complaining to the Teacher when one of the bully’s victims stands up to that bully
‘balance’ surely is in the eyes of the beholder & as this is a ‘left’ blog what would one expect. Go to Andrew Bolt or Piers & you get more ‘right’ views
Yes lets be done with it – why not a name change, I suggest “Poll Bludger’s Socialist Forum”
oh , so the issues in #141 are too difficult
ESJ @142
Unworthy. As a Green I come to this blog to lookand learn regarding what’s happening on the hustings, the polls and in politics generally. I hope it to be moderately objective and certainly informative. Dissenting views should be tolerated, if not accepted. While I am obviously happy that Howard is no longer PM, I see a much longer road in building a compassionate, forward thinking and ultimately ecological society. Kevin Rudd is but a first (small) step. Unfortunately, Iemma/Costa in NSW is not.
On another note, any ideas on the next NSW state poll? And on a further note, I see that Romney is romping home in Maine.
I refer to Kevin Rudd *affectionately* as “kruddy” or the “kruddmeister”.
I don’t consider it derogatory, more of a nickname. I don’t see people from any side of politics using “krudd” or “kruddy” as being derogatory.
“Hey, Jimbo, how the f— are ya? Wanna come down the pub with me and Kruddy and have some beers?”
Sure Peter,
I think its very Australian to take the pi.s out of politicians and names like the rodent reflect our irreverent national self-image.
The point isnt about the name as much as the repetitive nature of the comments reflect an intolerant self-righteous attitude which I would humbly suggest most Australians find a huge turn-off too.
Having said that I think to actually fight your way into being an elected PM is an enormous achievement and every one is entitled to a basic level of respect.
Stewart J , think any sort of credible Opposition leader may see Yemma go
Peter , the language you used in your last paragraph is at odds with
the ‘Rodent’ supporters sensitivities who were complaining about being sledged
As I said earlier
It is like the school boy bully complaining to the Teacher when one of the bully’s victims stands up to that bully
Ron,
Tissue Boxes to you too!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHVMxBkW0CQ
ah , the Ann Coulter of PB has surfaced from the shadows
actually peeps
the thing is that the political dynamic has changed-forever.
no longer the “boys club” of the enlightened ones,the real people are able to voice their opinion,sometimes sarcastically and sometimes passionately BUT it is their opininions,not some drivel delivered by 3rd rate hacks.
I was a liberal voter(so was mrs g and her family-but neveer eveer again tahnks worstchoices) who still maintains links with liberals-in the main great people bitterly disillusioned by howards dictatorial style reign as regards the “machine” thanks bill heffernan.They will return,hopefully more compassionate etc-then and only then will i even consider voting for the libs
so now in 2008 what do we have
simply put a gradually return to our TRUE core values.
BTW Rudd has announced a National Forum in april to plan ahead (2020 i think)
ALL political leaders at both state and federal level will be invited plus 1000 other experts,Nation Building i think you call it 🙂