Morgan: 59-41

Morgan has simultaneously released results of face-to-face polling conducted over the previous two weekends, and a phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday. The former has Labor leading 49 per cent to 36 per cent on the primary vote and 59-41 on two-party preferred, compared with 61.5-38.5 at the previous such poll a fortnight earlier; the latter has Labor’s leads at 50 per cent to 34.5 per cent and 60-40, compared with 63-37 last week. In other news, political parties’ financial disclosure returns for 2006/07 have been published by the Australian Electoral Commission: Steven Mayne sifts through the evidence at Crikey (subscriber only).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

302 comments on “Morgan: 59-41”

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  1. Gusface , your correction (“peeps”) is appreciated

    guess the policy question is whether the overall liberal philosophy behind workchoices (ie. let each worker negotiate his own conditions individually as part of a free market place) is still part of the Liberal party

    or whether the Libs will genuinely embrace collective bargaining based on productivity ?

  2. Me thinks most right-wingers are more fond of rules and order then your average left-wingers. The right-wingers will tend to cling to more established sites such as news.com.au and all their reactionary demigods, where as the lefties are more willing to see what else is out there as they are unhappy with what is offered them by the mainstream media.

    The Poll Bludger is a open forum for debating politics, on here you live and die by your arguments. That is what scares right-wingers I think, on here they don’t own the game.

  3. 844
    Ron Says:
    February 3rd, 2008 at 10:36 am
    Got to go out but thought I’d reblog this from the other site to get discussion going for williams finance
    ….now that I’m going , the Rodents lurking in the dark can now come out of their closet …the Ann Coulter of PB and Pompous Toff

    Steve , you’ve expressed the sentinment the clearest in #839

    The blog should be put on a reasonable financial footing so it can continue

    My concern was not with Centre’s intentions but with the flawed execution of him actually being a Bookie on this site (or to be more accurate a 1/2 Bookie)

    ie. liable for the total of notional winning bets less notional losing bets

    my blog 832 explains the detail why Centre was wrong to claim minimal losses
    WOULD be incurred by the ‘Bookie’ & why a Bookie is inappropriate

    Therefore Centre’s idea belongs in the dust bin and we should endeavour to bounce around practical ideas tp make the Poll Bludgers site viable.

    (which could involve bragging rights & varying “”class’s” of a ‘Rodent’ award)

  4. The issue has been raised previously but ignored by William. If an alternative method of making financial contributions can be organised then I will be happy to help out. As it stands, PayPal won’t accept my credit card.

  5. William,

    Fair’s fair. If one is not allowed to play the man then you would delete Ron’s post at 153 or allow me to administer an appropriate smackdown!

  8. ESJ, there’s no equivalence between Ron’s comment and yours.

    TW, I’m not aware of any reputable alternative to PayPal that’s worth the paperwork. What’s it doing when you submit your credit card details?

  9. 144

    I believe that most Australians share in your hopes for the future, that is the issue that will unite us so we can move forward as one to develop this nation in a responsible manner.

    On another note…is this Sunday confessions???

    Gee, what gets me is that you guys are very intelligent and maybe William should post some threads on maybe the social or economic issues and these could be discussed in the manner of coming to some sort of solution.

    Honestly guys…I think we need something like this between the elections.

    Think about it William.

  10. I’m wondering if a merger between the Queensland Nationals and Liberals work out, that the Nationals and Liberals on a federally and in other states will merge as well.

  11. Tristan ideally they should merge at a Federal Level first thus avoiding the problem of having Warren Truss the leader of the Federal National Party yet a member of a different Queensland Conservative Party.

  12. The merger in Qld has so much momentum that is hard to see how it can be stopped. From the 7.30 report last night we learn from National Party MLA Ray Hopper, that the Nationals will merge with the Liberals, even if they have to do so without the Liberals!

    ” MARK WILLACY: Dalby, on Queensland’s Darling Downs, is National Party heartland. Like Barnaby Joyce, National State member Ray Hopper is a believer in the gospel of merging.

    RAY HOPPER: We are going to make it happen. If the Libs don’t want to come onside, we are going to go without them…”

    http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2152385.htm

  14. 162

    I believe a new political force has to be created to cast off the past.

    A new charter has to be written to establish the new identity to ensure a viable option for the electorate in the future.

    I think they should act for the sake of democracy.

  15. William, I believe the problem is I had a PayPal account years ago which I let lapse. For some reason they have gone and blocked my card from their system so it can never be used again.

    Perhaps if you set up a Poll Bludger bank account we can transfer contributions directly into that account?

  16. nostra, I’d comment on how ridiculous your post is but I recognise that you are a double agent troll, a Labor supporter that posts to make Coalition supporters look stupid

  17. For Ron @ 153,

    The Coulter of No Regret:

    THERE was postings on the network, and the word had passed around
    That the “Coulter of No Regret” had posted once again,
    And had upset the wild bluff bloggers of the left— he was worth a thousand jibes,
    So all the crackpots had gathered to the fray.
    All the tried and noted whingers with their cyber pseudos near and far
    Had mustered at their keyboards overnight,
    For the bludgers love their sledging where the Bill Bowe bloggers are,
    And the lurkers like to giggle with delight.

    With deepest of deepest apologies to the Banjo

  19. 152

    TurningWorm, I read Poll Bludger primarily for the links to the polls, and his reading of the tea leaves. I enjoy it very much.

    If there was more discussion on psephology and the electoral landscape (and the Lib-Nat amalgamation issue is a good example), you might find more conservatives participate in the discussions.

  21. Indeed, TurningWorm, and a good point – but you did ask why not many conservatives participate in the site much.

    Personally I enjoy William’s links on the polls, redistributions etc. I’m not particularly interested in PB as a “open forum for debating politics”. That’s not to say that this site doesn’t have value for those who wish to use it to do so. It’s just not what I’m looking for here, and I daresay other conservatives who read this site probably share this view.

    But back to your worthwhile point – what do you think will be the results of the Queensland redistribution?

  22. 133
    Bushfire Bill

    Crikey BB, do I detect a dose of passion? LOL

    If you like your passion served cold, like revenge, when the corpse is cold (but only just!), then you’ll probably enjoy this eulogy for Paddy McGuinness by Bob Carr:

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23129013-7583,00.html

    …as it puts the whole ‘cultural warrior’ brigade firmly in the front of the phalanx that was Howard’s ultimate defeat.

    Delicious!

    There’s also another more fawning one, more grotesquely fulsome and baroque from that other rotund champion of conservatism Christopher Pearson, but believe me, it’s pure high camp sycophancy.

  23. OV, I haven’t a clue on the subject other than it seems the population growth in QLD means it will pick up a seat. Please share your views with us. Promise I won’t bite as long the words Krudd, hell, hack or rot aren’t mentioned in relation to the Labor party. 🙂

  24. Occasional Visitor,

    I can asure you Glen is a strong Liberal bloger here & regular.

    He has a genuine go at policys & politics & is respected for it , although he does get teased over his love affair for Julie Bshop & Downers black stocking routine

    whereas others are neocons. rarely getting into policy or politics but snipe instead & so get return fire…but not from a gentile soul like I

  25. BB @ 133,
    Labor being blamed for things that go wrong? – it’s the burden of Government.
    Not much point in whingeing about it – in my experience most people want to blame “them” for most things, and the Federal Government is the biggest and most obvious “them” to pick on.

  27. suppose as soon as Governments make decisions , someone or group is going to be unhappy Dyno

    hope the ‘sorry’ , the schools laptops program go well & inflation is controlled

  28. Is Her Majesty’s opposition asking for the wording of the apology anything like PM Howard being asked for the wording of the WorkChoices legislation?

  30. ON the apology, if you really wanted to put Rudd on the spot, you would come out as Nelson and say an apology is fine but lets give it real meaning and not make it an empty gesture call for a compensation package with it.

    If Nelson did that I believe it would expose the essential hypocrisy of Labor on this issue.

  32. Sure GG, but if you were Nelson you could say we all know this will be followed up in the courts lets show real leadership and keep the courts out of it by setting up a compensation fund,

  33. “It begins, I think, with the act of recognition. Recognition that it was we who did the dispossessing. We took the traditional lands and smashed the traditional way of life. We brought the disasters. The alcohol. We committed the murders. We took the children from their mothers. We practised discrimination and exclusion. ”

    An excerpt from Paul Keating’s Redfern speech
    10/12/1992

    Where were the massive compensation claims that followed this? It didnt happen. Compensation issue is a non-issue. Disagree with the apology if you want but dont fall for the compensation beat-up.

  34. 180 Edward StJohn – so let’s play party politics with the “Sorry” issue. Lovely attitude ESJ. That’s been the problem with the Libs for the last 11 years.

  35. Last night SBS featured Cathy Freeman’s ancestry on Who Do You Think You Are. Among the sadder incidents was her mother showing Cathy a letter she had to write to the government asking permission for her and her husband to visit their relatives for Christmas. Permission was refused without explanation. This wasn’t a hundred years ago, but just a couple before Cathy was born!

    Another, was a letter written by Cathy’s great grandmother to the ‘Protector’ of Aborigines asking why she could no longer draw on her husband’s wage. The department wrote back that it had decided to look after the money. Apparently, they still are. The kicker in the story is that Cathy’s great grandfather was a trooper serving with the 11th Light Horse in the Mid East at the time, fighting to preserve freedom for others. Freedom which he never had, or would have.

    Cathy’s maternal grandparents were sent to the penal colony on Palm Island because the grandfather refused to sign a work agreement, even though he wasn’t legally required to. Wonder if this is where JWH got the idea for AWAs from?

    And some twist their knickers about saying ‘Sorry’! 🙁

  37. ESJ #180,

    Would this not instead expose the hypocrisy of the Liberal Party for all to see, as well as annoying the Nationals? After all, the same Liberals who would be pushing for compensation in your scenario were the same people who, on the opposite side of the House, were decrying an apology because it would “open the floodgates to billions in compensation”? If Rudd wants to prove them wrong by giving an apology sans compo, that appears to me to be a moderate position on his part.

  38. Steve 185, Thanks for the link. Isnt it amazing that Hillsong earns $50 million a year and it is all tax free? I think some Christian churches, by so openly joining the political fray are going to be in for a lot more scrutiny in the future.

  39. #183 Harold, folks just don’t want to apologise but they don’t want to be seen as “mean & tricky”, to use a familiar phrase. Hence they argue about a non-issue, as you say, of compensation.

    Money has a stupid way of making people worried.

  40. #187, speaking of Hillsong and their millions, last night (or this morning, whichever way you look at it) I couldn’t sleep and was reading a book with the TV on in the background when I realised that dopey galoot Benny Hinn was in Venezuala mumbling mumbo jumbo to the masses who were mumbling mumbo jumbo (and gee, didn’t they look soooo happy! *sarcasm*), and a little note at the bottom of the screen invited people to go to his site and read his letter about his financial accountability. This was a response to recent demands from Senators wanting to know just how much money various televangelists receive are being spent on charity and how much are spent on maintaining a more-than-comfortable lifestyle. http://www.bennyhinn.org/finances/default.cfm

    His letter made me really annoyed.

  41. GB (184) I don’t know about the sarcasm directed at ESJ; however, I think you have mentioned a valid point. There really is, as I see it, no utility for the Coalition playing ‘party politics’. Indeed, a perception of being mean spirited and pedantic is apt to erode the Coalition’s public standing at a time when their parliamentary leader has a tenuous hold on the leadership. An apology to the ‘stolen generation’ was part of the ALP’s platform for election. With or without bipartisan support the ALP should implement that policy. Mr. Rudd plans to do so in the Parliament under parliamentary privilege. If his implementation of the policy is in some way mismanaged and it creates problems for the Commonwealth, then he and his government can be left to deal with any adverse political consequences. The Liberal Party would be well advised (I know, not a recent characteristic) to let this one go through.

  42. Harold 183 and others are right – there is no legal link between an apology and claims for compensation. Establishing a legal right to compensation requires proof of breach of some statutory or common law obligation of government. Because of the racist statutory framework under which much of the taking away of children occurred and the difficulty of establishing facts many years after the event, compensation test cases/claims are difficult and the first ones in the Northern Territory failed. A successful claim has recently been concluded in South Australia. Statements made by Premiers and PMs inside or outside Parliamnet are of no value in trying to prove a claim (unless perhaps they were very specific to a claim which doea not occur) – statements to the court are what count. Rudd making statement in Parliament is proper procedure, not to avoid reference to the statement in a court or fear of legal consequences.

    There is a moral link between an apology and compensation. That is a political matter which can be sorted out later. It is certainly sensible to attempt to settle claims without lengthy and expensive hearings (about 10 years in the SA case and no doubt pretty expensive) as Tasmania has decided.

  43. To change the topic, something I posted on the other thread which applies equally to this one.

    Following on from last night, I’m still wading through a couple of articles about psychpathology in politicians and other famous people. There is a great article comparing levels of psychopathology on 291 world famous men. The groups were (including a % of severe psychopathology using DSMIIIR); scientists (18%), composers (31%), politicians (17%), artists (37%), thinkers (26%) and writers (46%).

    Reference: Brit J Psychiatry (1994), 165, 22-34.

    Listing all the politicians in terms of severity;

    None: Briand, Franco, Gandhi, Metternich, Smuts, Stresemann, Thiers

    Mild: Asquith, Ben Gurion, Bethmann-Hollweg, Garibaldi, Lenin, Mao-Zedong, Masaryk, Mazzini, Nkrumah, Poincare, FD Roosevelt, Sun-Yat-Sen

    Moderate: Adenauer, Cavour, Chiang Kai-Sek, Churchill, Clemenceau, Gambetta, Gladstone, De Gaulle, Lloyd George, Mussolini, Nasser, Nehru, Palmerston, Parnell, Peel, Peron, Pilsudsky, Stalin, Venizelos

    Severe: Bismarck, Bulow, Disraeli, Hitler, Ataturk, Lincoln, O’Connell, Woodrow Wilson.

  45. Some people here are too sensitive to Aborigine’s feeling

    Aboriginal Leaders generally don’t care whether the Libs support or don’t support the Rudd apology , because they know the Libs current leadership is divided on the issue & that leadership taints any Liberal response to Rudds view

    Saying “Sorry” is not symbolism nor dollars to the Aborigine
    It is recognition. But it needs the PM’s “sorry'” to give it credibility

  47. Whilst interest rates increase, whilst the wealthy continue to cream off our government regarding negative gearing, private health cover, private education- Rudd decides to have another talkfest, just like Hawke in 1980s, all talk and no action.. Another pr gimic solution… Don’t any Labor Mp’s have any policies?

  48. Steve #196,

    What the overheated housing market needs is NOT another measure designed to encourage anyone (no matter how much in need) to enter the market – it needs help to balance supply and demand. With demand outstripping supply, increasing demand will only lead to inflationary pressures. A measure to improve supply, or get certain segments of the markets out (i.e, reduce incentives for[for example] investment house-buyers) will bring the market back into balance. While these measures are apparently well-intentioned, they are not the appropriate solution to the problem.

  49. Mathew Cole@198
    what about the old Dept housing and construction resurrected.
    acting as the focal point it could co-ordinate states/developers
    the Comm retains control until the house is sold to owners
    this would stop prestige/sardine developments and allow for demand planning and decentalization
    Whitlam started down this path but unfortunately no attempts were made to keep it going

  50. Yes, Marky, far better to come up with policies without consulting anyone and then tell your critics that they’re standing in the way of process.
    Hawke’s ‘talkfest’ in the ’80s led the Accord, which saw the unions work with the government to limit wage rises to reduce inflation, at the same time lowering the number of workdays lost to strikes. This had ongoing benefits to all of Australia for the next decade.
    Consulting with people isn’t effective UNLESS you already have your own ideas – discussions need to happen within a framework.
    As a policy writer, I can attest that there are huge dangers in coming up with ideas and then just blindly implementing them. The best results come when you run your initial ideas past experts in the field, getting them to prove to you whether or not your thoughts are valid.
    The worst results come when, ala Howard and the National Water Initiative, you come up with a great plan all by yourself and won’t let anyone criticise it, even when its flaws are obvious and implementing it will led to as many problems as it solves.
    Noone – despite Howard’s impersonations – can know everything about everything and it’s dangerous to pretend that they do. I am constantly dealing with people who know little or nothing about a subject having a ‘bright idea’ and then trying to get me to sell it, refusing to listen to me when I try and point out the obvious flaws.
    We’ve just got rid of a government that acted in the same way. We should have learnt a few lessons from that.

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