Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia
Morgan: 60.5-39.5
Roy Morgan’s first face-to-face poll of the Rudd era shows Labor with a predictably bloated two-party lead of 60.5-39.5. Read all about it here.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
Any other contributions re Glens personna gratefully received
True Diogenes, health was number 1 on Exit Polls.
It doesn’t help that its a complex system, and not well integrated across the different sectors.
Just my view, but it would also help to do some public education on how the system works, the public expectation or “demand” needs to be managed, as well as “supply” issues.
The whole hospital ‘score card’ or ‘league table’ thing bothers me, it would be hard to do it without increasing misinformation, and media scare campaigning (especially at the hands of Murdoch). They did that in the UK in the late 90s, and just escalated out of control, tabloid media scaring people with death, fire and brimstone, if you use your local hospital headlines. Just destroyed public confidence in the system, for no reason.
But for Rudd & Co, I’m quietly confident they’ll give it their best shot, surely they can’t do any worse than the previous bunch!
I must demur on the Hillsong suggestion for Glen.
He has repeatedly shown he lives in Melbourne. And Melburnians don’t generally go in for Hillsong type churches.
His comments that he lives in Port Mlebourne but was volunteering in Anna Burke’s electorate (Chisolm?) are intriguing. To me it suggests that he grew up in that electorate in the middle/outer east of Melbourne before moving in – perhaps for university. But he went back “home” to do his volunteering.
As a Melburnian the school is all-important. I suggest his debating style is reminscent of Melbourne Grammar. A strange inability to accept that not everyone approaches life from his paradigm seems very reminiscent of my experiences adjudicating Melbourne Grammar students.
Oh gus, Glen is a spoiled child with ‘attention-seeking’ issues, ignore him!
Glen at 377 says the states are rrsponsible for health.
And yet when Tony Abbott and John Howard moved to takeover Mersey Hospital he supported them in lock step.
Funny, that.
I wonder when we may know the result from McEwen is there a date where they’ll declare the seat or shall we just have to wait?
Would someone please grab a strap and take Glen behind the woodshed.
That’s because Tasmania had failed in their duties to maintain adequate health services to large communities Spiros that was what i was getting at.
glen 408: “That’s because Tasmania had failed in their duties to maintain adequate health services to large communities Spiros that was what i was getting at.”
is that why they cherry picked a hospital despite advice that its community was too small to sustain its services and that people would die in the hospital as a result? the tasmanian govt. was (belatedly) doing the right thing. one of the reasons you don’t want overlapping hospitals, like the takeover would have created, is because specialists require a critical mass of patients to maintain their skill level. all the advice says that the mersey under howard control would have *killed* patients. yet howard was willing to cause adverse outcomes to who knows how many patients to win an election. maybe the liberal party under brendan nelson should offer to take it over and run it. it’s only going for about a dollar and they could show how they can fix the health system but were prevented from doing so for 11 years.
402 Rain- I wholeheartedly agree with education of the public about expectations of Health. In Cairns last year, they did an education campaign re what to present to Emerg Departments for and when to go to GPs during the winter busy time. The local GPs supported this by leaving a few more consulting slots for Emerg cases. It worked very well and the Cairns Emerg Department survived the winter onslaught. BTW on your obesity project, SA Health has banned some types of elective surgery (eg abdominoplasty and breast reduction) on patients with a BMI greater than 30. They have a very high complication rate and stay in hospital longer than average.
[That’s because Tasmania had failed in their duties to maintain adequate health services to large communities Spiros that was what i was getting at.]
And when the Tasmanian government held an independent review, led by a panel of Professors of medicine from Victoria, an opportunistic federal government tried to score cheap political points out of their rationalisation plans.
Thankfully that mob of economic dunces is now out of power.
What little respect i have for O’Donoghue has diminshed even futher – not all of the removals were “cruel” and “evil” – it’s because of m*r*ns like her that today many black children are left in abusive situations that would see a white child removed in a second.
I knew some lefties go far to trash us centre-righties but to say that a political party would be happy to kill people to win an election is low gam even for you.
The question is what will the ALP do about it?
They are in power everywhere, they can’t escape from the health systems the State governments primarily created. I dont see how all the blame is on the Howard government when the States are constitutionally responsible for Health and Howard gave the States billions in extra funding thanks to the GST. In some States they’ve had a decade to fix the health system and failed miserably (Victoria/NSW).
Clearly the Health system is a product of Federal/State relations and buckpassing though this has not changed with the election of Labor across the country. As seen by Roxons woeful response to the PI hospital.
‘The more things change the more things remain the same’
412
Jasmine Pierce – hear hear!
Showson and Gam are absolutely correct.
I hear Costello is going at Shneezel will be the candidate around May time this year.
Glen @ 413
Howard gave the States billions in extra funding thanks to the GST
He did? Or did he reduce federal payments to the states by a similar amount and did they also have to give up many other sources of revenue?
Prior to the reform of federal financial relations, implemented from 1 July 2000, general revenue assistance comprised the largest component of Australian Government payments to the States. Those payments consisted mostly of financial assistance grants, which have now been replaced by the provision of GST revenue to the States. General revenue assistance also includes a range of other payments, most of which have largely been phased out.
And did not Abbott admit during the election campaign that billions had been ripped out of the federal health budget for hospitals? Wonder where that went? Torturing refugees in Pacific hellholes, perhaps? Or Horatio’s dud planes?
413 Glen What’s this centre bit?
Thrown in for looks is it?
412 Jasmine Pierce
I seem to remember an earlier assault on Lowitja O’Donoghue by you. I suggest that you do some reading on the subject of the Stolen Generation, beginning with the ‘Bringing them home’ report. Then you might begin to understand the complexity of this issue and its far-reaching consequences for Indigenous families and clans.
Chris B i am not a complete right wing nutter.
I am:
pro-choice
pro-gun control
pro-financial rights for homosexuals
pro-stem cells
Fair enough.
Tony Abbott would not be pleased with all my political views Chris B, but my other views make it just about impossible to contemplate voting for the other mob.
Glen is full of frustration and aggressive hostility, and it is all an artificial barrier to mask his inhibitions, and his massive inferiority complex.
I didn’t know we had a Sigmund Freud in the house?
Diogenes Says @ 410: “I wholeheartedly agree with education of the public about expectations of Health. In Cairns last year, they did an education campaign re”.
*nodding* integration often works better in regional centres, often better relationships between acute and primary care sectors. Not something Liberal federal govts like though, they want health privatised, and co-operation between primary care and acute care is too socialist for their ideology.
“BTW on your obesity project, SA Health has banned some types of elective surgery (eg abdominoplasty and breast reduction) on patients with a BMI greater than 30. They have a very high complication rate and stay in hospital longer than average.”
Yeah, service rationing, has to be done somewhere. Again its meant to generally be up to the states to make those decisions as they see fit in their jurisdictions, and federal health shouldn’t really get involved on that micro-level. Just Abbott and co, if they smelled some political advantage (as in Tassie) would step in and play games with the situation.
yes, with obesity, some strong correlations with things like injury in kids. The extra weight can affect bone growth and strength, a nasty fall off a pushbike in a healthy kid, heals and recovers quickly. Obese kids much worse health outcomes. Even minor cuts, abrasions etc heal less quickly, higher infections etc. Poorer utcomes on rehab for trauma victims etc. Skin conditions and allergies more common. Obese girls are more likely to have pregnancy complications in later life. Depression rates higher, going off to the GP or therapist. Higher OTC medication use/misuse. List goes on.
I could be off-base, but I suspect this current federal offer to reduce waiting-lists is aimed to quickly clear the worst cases off the back-log that all states have, and much of it will be done by cutting deals with private hospitals.
Which is what happened when the private hospital insurance came in around 99, over time the waiting lists start to get bigger and bigger – the immediate introduction of the private health insurance schemes, did help clear a lot of the backlog or “pent up demand”, for awhile. Only to find 2-3 years down the track it starts to build again.
It was working better with the old 3-tier system with self-insurance options in-between fully public and fully private cover. Those of middle-income could cut-deals to let them jump the queue, and cutting out the middle-man costs of private health insurance funds, still made it cheaper and affordable option for many people. The insurance funds are just as bureaucratic and much of their costs are gobbled up by their own corporate administration overheads.
413 [ I dont see how all the blame is on the Howard government when the States are constitutionally responsible for Health]
The states are not solely, constitutionally responsible for health Glen. You have been told many times over many months but still you repeat this nonsense.
glen 413 wrote: “I knew some lefties go far to trash us centre-righties but to say that a political party would be happy to kill people to win an election is low gam even for you.”
what makes you think i said that?
“From the point of view of health and the health care system, the Prime Minister’s intervention in the Mersey Hospital in Tasmania is, at best, ill advised and, at worst, calamitous for Tasmanians and, potentially, for other Australians. It will almost certainly result in the death of northwest Tasmanians.”
A large number of Australians die each year as a result of avoidable “adverse events”: mistakes which would not have occurred in a higher quality system. In 1995, the landmark “Quality of Australian Health Care Study” (Wilson, RM et al, Medical Journal of Australia, No 163, pages 458-471) estimated that at least 10 per cent of annual hospital admissions are associated with an adverse event. Up to 9,000 die unnecessarily each year and many more suffer some level of permanent disability. These are not primarily the fault of doctors (who make mistakes like all of us) but of systems which have not been properly designed to avoid errors and which force doctors to work in unsafe hospitals.
This was the main reason that the Expert Advisory Group which I chaired in 2004 recommended that one large, not two small hospitals in northwest Tasmania should provide comprehensive specialist services. This would allow the delivery of safe world class, not second class, specialist services.
The Prime Minister’s intervention will cement in place a system in which adverse events will flourish and in which Tasmanians will die unnecessarily.
Professor Jeff Richardson was Chair of the Expert Advisory Group and 2004 Report, The Tasmanian Hospital System: Reforms for the 21st Century. He is Foundation Director of the Centre for Health Economics, Monash University and Adjunct Associate, at the Center for Health Policy/Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research at Stanford University.
the AMA backed that assessment as did numerous other health administration experts, so yes the howard govt. was prepared to cause needless deaths to win an election. not only that but they were willing to do so while flagrantly disregarding all advice to the contrary. must make you feel warm all over voting liberal.
I fail to see how reflections on a poster’s character contribute to the quality of this blog.
While most here don’t agree with much of what Glen has to say – and I’m one of those – there’s no call to blacken his name to the extent it becomes a sub-thread in its own right. That’s just cheap ad hominem persiflage.
There’s a difference to attacking his message – a la Steve at 427 – and speculating/casting nasturtiums at his character.
Let’s keep it on topic.
Ok, now I am willing to be corrected on any of the detail below, but here is some utterly unimportant micropsephological trivia for the purpose of parlour games.
Biggest swings at fixed booths (excluding new, abolished, mobile and other special polling places).
The biggest swing at a fixed polling place:
Injinoo in the electorate of Leichardt which saw a 30.1% 2PP swing to ALP from LIB. (2007 ALP 147/LIB 31; 2004 ALP 96/LIB 106)
Notable here is the retirement of Warren Entsch and the loss of his personal vote. Indeed Leichardt produced many of the largest booth swings to go with its large overall swing. So we also have:
Biggest swing to a sitting member (whose electorate covered the booth at both elections):
Dajarra in the electorate of Kennedy which saw a 29.73% 2PP swing to IND from ALP. (2007 IND 31/ALP 17; 2004 IND 23/ALP 43)
Biggest swing against a sitting member (whose electorate covered the booth at both elections):
Wee Jasper the electorate of Hume which saw a 27.13% 2PP swing to ALP from LIB. (2007 ALP 31/LIB 27; 2004 ALP 20/LIB 56)
Finally, since these have been mostly small booths which more readily allows dramatic swings we have
Biggest swing at a booth with over 500 votes cast:
Thursday Island in the electorate of Leichardt which saw a 27.93% 2PP swing to ALP from LIB. (2007 ALP 517/LIB 242; 2004 ALP 334/LIB 498)
Biggest swing at a booth with over 1000 votes cast:
Mount Gambier North in the electorate of Barker which saw a 21.43% 2PP swing to ALP from LIB. (2007 ALP 977/LIB 782; 2004 ALP 396/LIB 765)
gam@428. Ah, evidence, experts and empiricism. Isn’t it great that they seem to have a role to play again?
On a similar topic, does anyone know how long Windschuttle and Albrechtson’s contracts with the ABC last?
Pancho who did you have in mind for their replacements???
‘The centre right, as represented by the Liberal Party, favours the present economic rulers by removing perceived obstacles to their further success, such as regulations and labour market restrictions. The centre left, as represented by the ALP, is just as supportive of the ruling economic class, but seeks to interpose layers of social responsibility.
The political and social divide separating these positions is wide; the contest between these competing ideas is what that often mystifying term, the culture wars, is all about.
The right, which has been in the ascendancy for more than a decade, is clearly in trouble: without holding elected office anywhere, it no longer has the means of patronage, the most potent ideological weapon in the war of propaganda.
Conservatism — the political tendency in Australia that until recently dared not speak its name — is in crisis, because without the capacity to dispense patronage, it lacks the very means of propagating its legitimacy.
There is no coherent doctrine that describes Australian conservatism, and the political distinction first formulated by the historian Keith Hancock almost 80 years ago — Labor as “the party of initiative” opposed by “the parties of resistance” — still holds up despite the modern day Liberals’ rejection of the description.’
Glen
Someone with a little more experience in communications, broadcast or management, as per the ABC’s charter. Surely you can acknowledge that they are not sound appointments, and are not acceptable representatives across the community. And before you hit me with an ideological charge, I would be just as disappointed if say Phil Adams ended up on the board and attempted to push politics in the way these two have done.
‘In a merciless critique of the previous government’s record released this morning Access has also labeled its spending decisions “positively Whitlamesque”…
Whereas the Keating Government had been criticised for promising away tax cuts well in advance in return for wage moderation, the Coalition had promised away tax cuts well in advance “in return for nothing really”.’
‘If Peter Costello really believes Swan and Labor are “the luckiest Lotto winners” it’s a sign of how complacent he’d become.
The Howard Government enjoyed such good luck it never felt it had to try very hard, and so it didn’t. It had little idea of the need to capitalise on the good times and so did allow problems to build up for the future.’
Re 431,
Pancho I read somewhere recently that the various contracts for the ABC board members run out between 2009 & 2011 (can’t remember who goes first though).
cheers,
I have come to the conclusion that “Glen” is God. Because she is everywhere, knows about everything and has infinite time to waste and fuss over nothing.
BTW,
for those still interested in opinion polls 🙂 there’s an article in todays online Age in the opinion section titled “You can trust opinion polls – to an extent”, by Robin Rothfield.
Mostly repeats what many have said on this forum & the other phephological blogs for months – ie margin of error & just what was the Oz smoking when they were trying to interpret their own polling information??
cheers,
Albrechtson beginning of 2010, Windschuttle mid 2011, assuming that each serves their full five years.
439
I believe it is a rare form of intoxicate…Jangstrings.
It’s all over. Bailey has conceded.
Where’d you get that Spiros?
Do you mean – McEwen? How do you know?
It’s true they announced it over the camp speakers too!
The Finnigans @ 438 – Then I thank the fates for being an athiest/deist
No, you fools, not McEwen.
Mike Bailey has conceded in North Sydney.
Very funny Spiros. ESJ have a word to the comrades for me would you? It does us no good to be releasing information before the zeitgeist is ready to accept our engineering.
You are a cruel, cruel man Spiros . . .
Peter Slipper has decided that the coalition is ‘unelectable’ at both State and Federal levels.
A Queensland Liberal MP has branded the federal and state coalition parties “unelectable”, saying they do not deserve to be re-elected until united as one conservative force.
Peter Slipper, the member for the Sunshine Coast-based seat of Fisher, today said the Liberal and National parties should either merge or form a new party all together.
Mr Slipper, speaking at the declaration of the poll for his electorate, said the parties’ poor result in the federal election and last year’s Queensland election proved change was urgently needed.
Refer my Gus 398
Any other contributions re Glens personna gratefully received
True Diogenes, health was number 1 on Exit Polls.
It doesn’t help that its a complex system, and not well integrated across the different sectors.
Just my view, but it would also help to do some public education on how the system works, the public expectation or “demand” needs to be managed, as well as “supply” issues.
The whole hospital ‘score card’ or ‘league table’ thing bothers me, it would be hard to do it without increasing misinformation, and media scare campaigning (especially at the hands of Murdoch). They did that in the UK in the late 90s, and just escalated out of control, tabloid media scaring people with death, fire and brimstone, if you use your local hospital headlines. Just destroyed public confidence in the system, for no reason.
But for Rudd & Co, I’m quietly confident they’ll give it their best shot, surely they can’t do any worse than the previous bunch!
I must demur on the Hillsong suggestion for Glen.
He has repeatedly shown he lives in Melbourne. And Melburnians don’t generally go in for Hillsong type churches.
His comments that he lives in Port Mlebourne but was volunteering in Anna Burke’s electorate (Chisolm?) are intriguing. To me it suggests that he grew up in that electorate in the middle/outer east of Melbourne before moving in – perhaps for university. But he went back “home” to do his volunteering.
As a Melburnian the school is all-important. I suggest his debating style is reminscent of Melbourne Grammar. A strange inability to accept that not everyone approaches life from his paradigm seems very reminiscent of my experiences adjudicating Melbourne Grammar students.
Oh gus, Glen is a spoiled child with ‘attention-seeking’ issues, ignore him!
Glen at 377 says the states are rrsponsible for health.
And yet when Tony Abbott and John Howard moved to takeover Mersey Hospital he supported them in lock step.
Funny, that.
I wonder when we may know the result from McEwen is there a date where they’ll declare the seat or shall we just have to wait?
Would someone please grab a strap and take Glen behind the woodshed.
That’s because Tasmania had failed in their duties to maintain adequate health services to large communities Spiros that was what i was getting at.
glen 408: “That’s because Tasmania had failed in their duties to maintain adequate health services to large communities Spiros that was what i was getting at.”
is that why they cherry picked a hospital despite advice that its community was too small to sustain its services and that people would die in the hospital as a result? the tasmanian govt. was (belatedly) doing the right thing. one of the reasons you don’t want overlapping hospitals, like the takeover would have created, is because specialists require a critical mass of patients to maintain their skill level. all the advice says that the mersey under howard control would have *killed* patients. yet howard was willing to cause adverse outcomes to who knows how many patients to win an election. maybe the liberal party under brendan nelson should offer to take it over and run it. it’s only going for about a dollar and they could show how they can fix the health system but were prevented from doing so for 11 years.
402 Rain- I wholeheartedly agree with education of the public about expectations of Health. In Cairns last year, they did an education campaign re what to present to Emerg Departments for and when to go to GPs during the winter busy time. The local GPs supported this by leaving a few more consulting slots for Emerg cases. It worked very well and the Cairns Emerg Department survived the winter onslaught. BTW on your obesity project, SA Health has banned some types of elective surgery (eg abdominoplasty and breast reduction) on patients with a BMI greater than 30. They have a very high complication rate and stay in hospital longer than average.
[That’s because Tasmania had failed in their duties to maintain adequate health services to large communities Spiros that was what i was getting at.]
And when the Tasmanian government held an independent review, led by a panel of Professors of medicine from Victoria, an opportunistic federal government tried to score cheap political points out of their rationalisation plans.
Thankfully that mob of economic dunces is now out of power.
What little respect i have for O’Donoghue has diminshed even futher – not all of the removals were “cruel” and “evil” – it’s because of m*r*ns like her that today many black children are left in abusive situations that would see a white child removed in a second.
I knew some lefties go far to trash us centre-righties but to say that a political party would be happy to kill people to win an election is low gam even for you.
The question is what will the ALP do about it?
They are in power everywhere, they can’t escape from the health systems the State governments primarily created. I dont see how all the blame is on the Howard government when the States are constitutionally responsible for Health and Howard gave the States billions in extra funding thanks to the GST. In some States they’ve had a decade to fix the health system and failed miserably (Victoria/NSW).
Clearly the Health system is a product of Federal/State relations and buckpassing though this has not changed with the election of Labor across the country. As seen by Roxons woeful response to the PI hospital.
‘The more things change the more things remain the same’
412
Jasmine Pierce – hear hear!
Showson and Gam are absolutely correct.
I hear Costello is going at Shneezel will be the candidate around May time this year.
Glen @ 413
He did? Or did he reduce federal payments to the states by a similar amount and did they also have to give up many other sources of revenue?
To quote from the Fed governments own webpage.
And did not Abbott admit during the election campaign that billions had been ripped out of the federal health budget for hospitals? Wonder where that went? Torturing refugees in Pacific hellholes, perhaps? Or Horatio’s dud planes?
413 Glen What’s this centre bit?
Thrown in for looks is it?
412 Jasmine Pierce
I seem to remember an earlier assault on Lowitja O’Donoghue by you. I suggest that you do some reading on the subject of the Stolen Generation, beginning with the ‘Bringing them home’ report. Then you might begin to understand the complexity of this issue and its far-reaching consequences for Indigenous families and clans.
Chris B i am not a complete right wing nutter.
I am:
pro-choice
pro-gun control
pro-financial rights for homosexuals
pro-stem cells
Fair enough.
Tony Abbott would not be pleased with all my political views Chris B, but my other views make it just about impossible to contemplate voting for the other mob.
Glen is full of frustration and aggressive hostility, and it is all an artificial barrier to mask his inhibitions, and his massive inferiority complex.
I didn’t know we had a Sigmund Freud in the house?
Diogenes Says @ 410: “I wholeheartedly agree with education of the public about expectations of Health. In Cairns last year, they did an education campaign re”.
*nodding* integration often works better in regional centres, often better relationships between acute and primary care sectors. Not something Liberal federal govts like though, they want health privatised, and co-operation between primary care and acute care is too socialist for their ideology.
“BTW on your obesity project, SA Health has banned some types of elective surgery (eg abdominoplasty and breast reduction) on patients with a BMI greater than 30. They have a very high complication rate and stay in hospital longer than average.”
Yeah, service rationing, has to be done somewhere. Again its meant to generally be up to the states to make those decisions as they see fit in their jurisdictions, and federal health shouldn’t really get involved on that micro-level. Just Abbott and co, if they smelled some political advantage (as in Tassie) would step in and play games with the situation.
yes, with obesity, some strong correlations with things like injury in kids. The extra weight can affect bone growth and strength, a nasty fall off a pushbike in a healthy kid, heals and recovers quickly. Obese kids much worse health outcomes. Even minor cuts, abrasions etc heal less quickly, higher infections etc. Poorer utcomes on rehab for trauma victims etc. Skin conditions and allergies more common. Obese girls are more likely to have pregnancy complications in later life. Depression rates higher, going off to the GP or therapist. Higher OTC medication use/misuse. List goes on.
I could be off-base, but I suspect this current federal offer to reduce waiting-lists is aimed to quickly clear the worst cases off the back-log that all states have, and much of it will be done by cutting deals with private hospitals.
Which is what happened when the private hospital insurance came in around 99, over time the waiting lists start to get bigger and bigger – the immediate introduction of the private health insurance schemes, did help clear a lot of the backlog or “pent up demand”, for awhile. Only to find 2-3 years down the track it starts to build again.
It was working better with the old 3-tier system with self-insurance options in-between fully public and fully private cover. Those of middle-income could cut-deals to let them jump the queue, and cutting out the middle-man costs of private health insurance funds, still made it cheaper and affordable option for many people. The insurance funds are just as bureaucratic and much of their costs are gobbled up by their own corporate administration overheads.
413 [ I dont see how all the blame is on the Howard government when the States are constitutionally responsible for Health]
The states are not solely, constitutionally responsible for health Glen. You have been told many times over many months but still you repeat this nonsense.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/781?cp=4
glen 413 wrote: “I knew some lefties go far to trash us centre-righties but to say that a political party would be happy to kill people to win an election is low gam even for you.”
what makes you think i said that?
Professor Jeff Richardson was Chair of the Expert Advisory Group and 2004 Report, The Tasmanian Hospital System: Reforms for the 21st Century. He is Foundation Director of the Centre for Health Economics, Monash University and Adjunct Associate, at the Center for Health Policy/Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research at Stanford University.
the AMA backed that assessment as did numerous other health administration experts, so yes the howard govt. was prepared to cause needless deaths to win an election. not only that but they were willing to do so while flagrantly disregarding all advice to the contrary. must make you feel warm all over voting liberal.
I fail to see how reflections on a poster’s character contribute to the quality of this blog.
While most here don’t agree with much of what Glen has to say – and I’m one of those – there’s no call to blacken his name to the extent it becomes a sub-thread in its own right. That’s just cheap ad hominem persiflage.
There’s a difference to attacking his message – a la Steve at 427 – and speculating/casting nasturtiums at his character.
Let’s keep it on topic.
Ok, now I am willing to be corrected on any of the detail below, but here is some utterly unimportant micropsephological trivia for the purpose of parlour games.
Biggest swings at fixed booths (excluding new, abolished, mobile and other special polling places).
The biggest swing at a fixed polling place:
Injinoo in the electorate of Leichardt which saw a 30.1% 2PP swing to ALP from LIB. (2007 ALP 147/LIB 31; 2004 ALP 96/LIB 106)
Notable here is the retirement of Warren Entsch and the loss of his personal vote. Indeed Leichardt produced many of the largest booth swings to go with its large overall swing. So we also have:
Biggest swing to a sitting member (whose electorate covered the booth at both elections):
Dajarra in the electorate of Kennedy which saw a 29.73% 2PP swing to IND from ALP. (2007 IND 31/ALP 17; 2004 IND 23/ALP 43)
Biggest swing against a sitting member (whose electorate covered the booth at both elections):
Wee Jasper the electorate of Hume which saw a 27.13% 2PP swing to ALP from LIB. (2007 ALP 31/LIB 27; 2004 ALP 20/LIB 56)
Finally, since these have been mostly small booths which more readily allows dramatic swings we have
Biggest swing at a booth with over 500 votes cast:
Thursday Island in the electorate of Leichardt which saw a 27.93% 2PP swing to ALP from LIB. (2007 ALP 517/LIB 242; 2004 ALP 334/LIB 498)
Biggest swing at a booth with over 1000 votes cast:
Mount Gambier North in the electorate of Barker which saw a 21.43% 2PP swing to ALP from LIB. (2007 ALP 977/LIB 782; 2004 ALP 396/LIB 765)
gam@428. Ah, evidence, experts and empiricism. Isn’t it great that they seem to have a role to play again?
On a similar topic, does anyone know how long Windschuttle and Albrechtson’s contracts with the ABC last?
Pancho who did you have in mind for their replacements???
I agree with dyspnoeia @429 – let’s avoid personality attacks (too reminiscent of the rodent’s tactics). But a debate about what centre right etc actually means is probably relevant. Here are some observations by Abjorenson (read more on http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/running-from-the-right/2007/12/16/1197740085666.html?page=2)
‘Running from the right’
‘The centre right, as represented by the Liberal Party, favours the present economic rulers by removing perceived obstacles to their further success, such as regulations and labour market restrictions. The centre left, as represented by the ALP, is just as supportive of the ruling economic class, but seeks to interpose layers of social responsibility.
The political and social divide separating these positions is wide; the contest between these competing ideas is what that often mystifying term, the culture wars, is all about.
The right, which has been in the ascendancy for more than a decade, is clearly in trouble: without holding elected office anywhere, it no longer has the means of patronage, the most potent ideological weapon in the war of propaganda.
Conservatism — the political tendency in Australia that until recently dared not speak its name — is in crisis, because without the capacity to dispense patronage, it lacks the very means of propagating its legitimacy.
There is no coherent doctrine that describes Australian conservatism, and the political distinction first formulated by the historian Keith Hancock almost 80 years ago — Labor as “the party of initiative” opposed by “the parties of resistance” — still holds up despite the modern day Liberals’ rejection of the description.’
Glen
Someone with a little more experience in communications, broadcast or management, as per the ABC’s charter. Surely you can acknowledge that they are not sound appointments, and are not acceptable representatives across the community. And before you hit me with an ideological charge, I would be just as disappointed if say Phil Adams ended up on the board and attempted to push politics in the way these two have done.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/
‘In a merciless critique of the previous government’s record released this morning Access has also labeled its spending decisions “positively Whitlamesque”…
Whereas the Keating Government had been criticised for promising away tax cuts well in advance in return for wage moderation, the Coalition had promised away tax cuts well in advance “in return for nothing really”.’
http://business.smh.com.au/get-ready-for-a-tough-budget/20071216-1hev.html
‘If Peter Costello really believes Swan and Labor are “the luckiest Lotto winners” it’s a sign of how complacent he’d become.
The Howard Government enjoyed such good luck it never felt it had to try very hard, and so it didn’t. It had little idea of the need to capitalise on the good times and so did allow problems to build up for the future.’
Re 431,
Pancho I read somewhere recently that the various contracts for the ABC board members run out between 2009 & 2011 (can’t remember who goes first though).
cheers,
I have come to the conclusion that “Glen” is God. Because she is everywhere, knows about everything and has infinite time to waste and fuss over nothing.
BTW,
for those still interested in opinion polls 🙂 there’s an article in todays online Age in the opinion section titled “You can trust opinion polls – to an extent”, by Robin Rothfield.
Mostly repeats what many have said on this forum & the other phephological blogs for months – ie margin of error & just what was the Oz smoking when they were trying to interpret their own polling information??
cheers,
Albrechtson beginning of 2010, Windschuttle mid 2011, assuming that each serves their full five years.
439
I believe it is a rare form of intoxicate…Jangstrings.
It’s all over. Bailey has conceded.
Where’d you get that Spiros?
Do you mean – McEwen? How do you know?
It’s true they announced it over the camp speakers too!
The Finnigans @ 438 – Then I thank the fates for being an athiest/deist
No, you fools, not McEwen.
Mike Bailey has conceded in North Sydney.
Very funny Spiros. ESJ have a word to the comrades for me would you? It does us no good to be releasing information before the zeitgeist is ready to accept our engineering.
You are a cruel, cruel man Spiros . . .
Peter Slipper has decided that the coalition is ‘unelectable’ at both State and Federal levels.
A Queensland Liberal MP has branded the federal and state coalition parties “unelectable”, saying they do not deserve to be re-elected until united as one conservative force.
Peter Slipper, the member for the Sunshine Coast-based seat of Fisher, today said the Liberal and National parties should either merge or form a new party all together.
Mr Slipper, speaking at the declaration of the poll for his electorate, said the parties’ poor result in the federal election and last year’s Queensland election proved change was urgently needed.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/coalition-unelectable-liberal-mp/2007/12/17/1197740159420.html