There are no fewer than seven seats which are still too close to call a week after polling day, with less than 0.3 per cent separating the two parties. The AEC’s official Close Seats list further includes Flynn and La Trobe, but these are all but certain to respectively go with Labor and Liberal. Corangamite briefly popped on to the list a few days ago, but it’s gone now. Two other seats that could be of at least theoretical interest come the preference count are O’Connor and Calare. In O’Connor, Nationals candidate Philip Gardiner (18.37 per cent) has a vague hope of getting ahead of Labor (20.42 per cent) on preferences from, among others, the Greens (6.68 per cent), and then overcoming Liberal member Wilson Tuckey (45.25 per cent) on Labor preferences. Similarly, in Calare the independent candidate Gavin Priestley (23.73 per cent) might be able to overcome Labor (24.84 per cent) with preferences from the Greens (2.60 per cent) and the Citizens Electoral Council (0.94 per cent, which was boosted by a donkey vote that will flow on to Labor) and then, just maybe, within spitting distance of John Cobb of the Nationals (47.89 per cent). For some reason only ordinary votes have been counted to this point in O’Connor.
Bowman. Labor’s Jason Young narrowly led Liberal incumbent Andrew Laming from election night until Tuesday when Laming got his nose in front on pre-polls, but this has proved to be the only close electorate where postals have favoured Labor. Young recovered the tiniest of leads and has inched slowly ahead to his current lead of 116 votes.
Herbert. Liberal incumbent Peter Lindsay leads by just 60 votes, and I have unconfirmed reports that only provisional votes remain to be counted. Last time provisionals favoured Lindsay 279-257: if there’s the same number this time and they swing the same way as the rest, Colbran will close the gap by 45 votes and lose by 15.
McEwen. Another seat where Labor was ahead on election night, but postals put Liberal incumbent Fran Bailey a very handy 502 votes up on Monday. That looked like it might be enough, but a remarkably good partial count of absent votes pulled it into 111 yesterday. Further counting of pre-polls then pushed her lead out to 150.
Solomon. Labor’s Damian Hale was a full 1.0 per cent ahead on election night, but late factors such as overseas Defence Force votes have steadily whittled it down to 262 votes, or 0.3 per cent. That leaves some hope for CLP incumbent Dave Tollner, though Hale should probably get up.
Swan. Labor incumbent Kim Wilkie had a 134-vote lead on election night, but has since had to watch as each new batch of votes has delivered a few dozen votes to Liberal candidate Steve Irons, who currently leads by 239 and is looking increasingly likely to emerge as the only Liberal candidate to topple a sitting Labor MP.
Dickson. Labor’s Fiona McNamara had reason to feel confident about her 425-vote lead on election night, but a strong performance on postals by Liberal member Peter Dutton pushed him 268 votes ahead on Wednesday. The seat has since provided Labor with some rare late count good news, absents and pre-polls reeling in the lead in to just 106.
Robertson. This one hadn’t been on my watch list, with Labor candidate Belinda Neal holding a formidable 1094 vote lead on election night. However, Liberal member Jim Lloyd has kept whittling away Neal’s lead, once again being boosted by postals which have gone 58-42 in his favour. Neal’s lead is now just 273 – too close to comfort, but probably just enough.
To illustrate the recurring theme of Liberal comebacks, here is a table comparing party support by type of vote cast for 2004 and 2007, bearing in mind that the 2007 figures are still incomplete. While there was a slightly better performance by the Coalition in declaration votes across the board, it does seem they have managed to produce their best results on postals where it has mattered most.
| ORDINARY | ABSENT | PRE-POLL | POSTAL | |||||||||||||
| 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | |||||||||
|
Labor
|
44.0 | 38.3 | 5.8 | 39.3 | 34.0 | 5.4 | 41.1 | 34.9 | 6.2 | 40.2 | 34.4 | 5.9 | ||||
|
Coalition
|
41.7 | 46.5 | -4.8 | 40.8 | 44.2 | -3.4 | 45.3 | 48.3 | -3.0 | 49.2 | 52.9 | -3.7 | ||||
|
Greens
|
7.6 | 7.0 | 0.6 | 12.1 | 10.9 | 1.2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | -1.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 0.1 | ||||
Providing they are talented i have absolutely nothing wrong with them either Adam.
[Let me hasten to say I see nothing wrong with that. I quite admire political dynasticism. Families like the Downers, the Anthonys, the Beazleys and the Creans, with long traditions of public service, are a good thing IMHO.]
And don’t forget the Court Dynasty in WA where Richard suceeded Sir Charles in the seat of Nedlands.
We’re all thankful that Joh’s boy failed to create a dynasty in Qld
Ah, FG you’ve done a nice variation on the Possum metaphor, (his was the sh!t sandwiches the new opposition leader will be forced to consume).
It never ceases to amaze me how people will accept any falsehood while it’s the dominant paradigm, no matter how flagrantly illogical or absurd, and just as easily reject it when the tide runs out against it.
But you’re so right about the dunny overflowing; it was time to flush ’em away.
“I’ve got more out of alcohol than it’s gotten out of me.” (Churchill)
Current Election results (including scrutiny data of whats still to be counted – Some additional votes not accounted for… all in the one location.
Why is Solomon recording more prepoll votes issued then received back and Why is the number of postal votes received greater then the number issued…
Still no answers to these puzzelling discrepancies…
Votes appear from no where and some vptes disappear.. Is it all only an illussion of democratic process
🙂
On the other hand Putin has won an overwhelming vote of confidence. It is without doubt that Putin has the support of 60%+ of his Russian constituents. Inspite the USA’s ongoing unfounded complaints about the Russian poll. (I think USA elections should be subject to international monitoring and review.)
Putin is a very impressive politican… If I had a vote I would vote for him.. Well done Vlad
… and to think Melbourne has the pride of place and envy of other cities being a Sister City to St. Petersburg.
So True KR. In an earlier post (345) I referred to the ‘turd quotient’ theory of political demise. Possum concurred (349) so it must have some validity.
Well done Ross Gittens. Nothing like some facts to puncture a Howard claim. From ABS 5220, here is percentage growth in real GDP per capita from 1993:
1993 = 1.8%
1994 = 2.5%
1995 = 3.9%
1996 = 3.3%
1997 = 3.3%
1998 = 3.4%
1999 = 3.1%
2000 = 3.8%
2001 = 1.2%
2002 = 2.8%
2003 = 2.4%
2004 = 4.2%
2005 = 3.4%
2006 = 3.4%
2007 = 3.1%
First, note that the economy was recovering strongly (+3.9%) when Howard took over in 1996. Arguably he actually cut too deep and reduced growth. Second, if you took out Qld and WA, we would have been in recession in 2001. So, without teh resources boom, Howard’s record was quite average. He was very lucky.
Can Mike Kelly retain the “Colonel” in his title given that he is still an active officer in the army reserve? I am assuming that he has retained his commission.
Wouldn’t his full title be The Honourable Colonel Dr Michael J. Kelly, AM?
“Dr Kelly, 47, who retired from the army as a colonel but remains an active reserve officer…”
http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/news/local/general/somalia-to-edenmonaro-how-mike-kelly-fought-a-murderous-warlord-all-the-way-to-a-firing-squad/1072581.html
Was Malcolm with Rddy?
AUSTRALIA has ratified the Kyoto Protocol.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd signed the instrument of ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in his first act after being sworn in this morning.
The ratification will come into force in 90 days.
“This is the first official act of the new Australian Government, demonstrating my Government’s commitment to tackling climate change,” Mr Rudd said
Putin is a neo-Stalinist thug and these elections were fraudulent from start to finish. It’s not hard to win an election when the main opposition party has been barred from participating and you control all the media. I no longer consider Russia to be a democracy at all. If you can’t see that MelbCity you are a bigger fool than I thought.
Fagin, there’s a limit to what will fit on a business card!
Ron Brown,
I greatly appreciate and enjoy your vote count analysis and prognoses. Keep up the fine work, please.
I hope we’ll be seeing widespread redistributions to fix the egregious numerical inequality among electorates. I don’t believe that they have been gerrymandered in the Bjelke-Peterson sense of the word, but these significant disparities make a farce out of one-person-one-vote value.
Adam, I thought MelbCity was being sarcastic. Phrased like Borat…
Don’t forget to imprison all the major opposition figureheads. That’s an important step too.
Were you being sarcastic, MelbCity? I don’t think he was. We have argued these matters before in relation to Ukraine. I think he is a genuine Putin dupe – a “useful idiot” as they were called in Stalin’s day.
Well Adam, if thats the case I’m with you. Putin scares me. He’s about as democratic as Mugabe.
408
Socrates Says:
December 3rd, 2007 at 4:26 pm
Well done Ross Gittens. Nothing like some facts to puncture a Howard claim. From ABS 5220, here is percentage growth in real GDP per capita from 1993:
Socrates , the inflation rate under Keating at 1996 was under 3% and falling
THEREFORE interest rates would fall whoever was the PM in 1997
whereas inflation has been rising in 2007 & is now 3% & still rising when Howard leaves …indicating more interest rate increase
Howard was lucky to fall between these 2 inflation bands (and get a mining boom as well)…statistically therefore Howard’s record is not of a good economic manager
I have directed my patented Blog Irony Sniffer at Melbcity 406 and detected a big zilch reading. Which makes it a very odd post indeed.
Sorry I missed the after party Rates. Was it subdued, or did the national win sweep everyone along?
Man, he signed Kyoto fast. Some right wing commentators are gonna explode 😀
I think it would be Colonel the Honourable Dr Mike J. Kelly AM.
Adam,
did you forget Kelly Hoare and Bob Brown?
Who could forget Kelly The? Probably the worst federal MP since Bruce Goodluck. I didn’t count her because mercifully she no longer “serving.” Some dynasties are a bad idea.
411
Adam – Better Putin than the Communists.
Ron Brown, I agree. Just to be clear, the stats I posted were for economic growth, not inflation – it was growth in real per capita GDP. The point of my post was that the per capita increase in GDP under Howard was not much different to under Keating’s second term. So the difference was not that great for most individuals. Groups who didn’t get a lot of kickbacks from Howard (eg couples without children) were probably slightly worse off under Howard than Keating. And as you say, inflation got worse.
Crispy – The atmosphere was defintely set to “cathartic party”. No-one seemed too offended Bailey hadn’t got up. It was getting much quieter by about 12 so I left then.
Glen, only marginally so.
According to the latest AEC results Labor nationally has won 52.88% of the two party vote. Seats wise the AEC have said Labor has won 80 seats and is ahead in 4. However Bowman, Robertson and Solomon Labor’s lead is less than 0.2%. I would not be suprised when counting is finished Labor only wins 81 seats. Interesting enough a 5.6% swing to Labor according to the Mackerras pendulum done before the federal would have allowed Labor an extra 21 seats, they held 60 seats before the election.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mackerras_federal_election_pendulum%2C_2006
There’ll be no recession in 2009. That’s just claptrap peddelled by $weetie, and he doesn’t know his arse from his elbow. Whilst a number of economic indicators point to a scenario of a ‘scary recession’, economies don’t function like they used, like in J Ho’s day, there are no levers, like $weetie likes to think, So a recession leading to a depression is unlikely. Unless there is a wages policy which reduces actual-take home, in-the-hand, money.
In 2003, Hanan Ashrawi was awarded the Sydney Peace Prize. Bob Carr stood his ground on this one in spite of many protests from anti-Palestinian elements.
Here’s an excerpt from Margo Kingston’s “Still not happy, John” (a great biography of the man):
“In a stunning illustration of how politicised the Australian Defence Force has become since Tampa and September 11, Colonel Mike Kelly, an Australian Army officer serving in Baghdad, emailed Carr in early October demanding he abandon his support for Ashrawi: ‘It would be hard to explain to a soldier who has just lost both legs in a terrorist attack why an Australian State Premier (supposedly an ally in this war) has been in effect comforting the enemy.’ His email naturally found its way onto the front page of the Australian.”
Dutman is pulling ahead and is now 184 votes ahead of the local union hack.
The Union hack is cuter!
The AEC on differences between issues and received postal vote envelopes
Putin better than communists??
How?
The only difference is he is ensuring his allies do benefit…just like someone who recently lost government.
And don’t think I support communists because they wiped out my whole lineage because we were white Russians
MelbCity’s constant allegations of foul play at the AEC (and also the VEC) are getting rather tiresome. Given his comments above on the Russian “elections,” it seem obvious that he would rather live in a one-party state where election results are known in advance and there is no tiresome vote-counting.
Off Topic
President Hugo Chávez Admits Defeat on Constitutional Referendum
In a close vote, Venezuela’s citizens rejected a
constitutional referendum that would have abolished term
limits, allowed Mr. Chávez to declare states of emergency for
unlimited periods and increased the state’s role in the
economy, among other measures.
Read More:
http://www.nytimes.com/?emc=na
Democracy in action 🙂
425
Socrates Says:
December 3rd, 2007 at 4:39 pm
Ron Brown, I agree. Just to be clear, the stats I posted were for economic growth, not inflation –
yes Socrates , I added inflation comparisons to support your view
Net wealth is gained by the 2 factors subject to “funding”
But to bring “funding” as a subject for comparison makes Howard look even worse
A country’s wealth is earned partly like any business does: Sales GP less expenses
1996 Australia’s current account deficit cum. export $ less import $ = $181 Billion
2007 Australia’s current account deficit cum. export $ less import $ = $543 Billion
DESPITE the mining boom , Australia is an economic basket case on these figures
As a % of GDP , the $543 Billion is over 6% of GDP (7th worst debt in the world !!)
This is Howard’s REAL LEGACY
Why did not rudd mention it….hello , hello , he wanted to win the election
Agree again Ron Brown. I’m not saying Howard was an economic vandal – he “did all right” as they said in a memorable Yes Minister episode. But Gittens was right to say he was/got complacent. Looking at the combination of economic figures, it seems to me that his best years really were up to 2001. After seeing us through the Asian crisis and 2001 recession, he coasted on the resources boom, and this is when inflation started again. He can hardly say the inflationary impact of the skill shortage was unexpected either. The Business Council of Australia was warning of it in the 2004 campaign. One organisation I was involved in identified it as a looming problem in 2001 and started training programmes then! (but when the industry as a whole is under supplied, other firms just poach the people).
Wilkie is 32 votes behind now.
He’s coming back!
Well Saul Eslake estimated the other day that we had a 33% risk of recession in the next three years. Yet some Liberal pluggers are already quietly hoping for it so that Rudd will lose. It shows how much they care about the nation’s future, or indeed “Howard’s battlers”. Every millionaire for themselves is more like it.
All parties out of power hope for recessions, preferably a few months before the next election. It’s regrettable but inevitable in a party-political system.
425
Socrates Says:
“So the difference was not that great for most individuals. Groups who didn’t get a lot of kickbacks from Howard (eg couples without children) were probably slightly worse off under Howard than Keating. And as you say, inflation got worse.”
Singles, and parents of young adult kids were worse off under Howard.
No Family Tax Benefits, No Baby Bonuses, Unwanted expensive Private Health “Tax” including 30% age loadings in the case of many 40-somethings, private heath tax hitting young graduates, because of wage inflation, skyrocketing increases to HECs debts which include annual interest charges etc. And superannuation in many cases reducing in value in real terms. Tax-cuts were always subtabntially less than the increases in just the basic mandatory private health insurance premiums, let alone inflation or interest rates. One of the reasons Gen-Y 20-somethings disliked Howard/Costello so much was they would get a 2% pay-rise and between both private health premium increases and HECs debt interest, would always take home less.
And pensions much reduced in real terms, the chronically disabled even had substantial cuts. Commonwealth Payments to States/Territories were reduced by about 2% of GDP, which obviously reduced services and infrastructure nationwide, or people wouldn’t be whining about it so much coast-to-coast.
Dont know who got invited to Howard’s economic boom-boom parties, but there are plenty I know who didn’t, and are more than “slightly” worse off, and feel (rightly or wrongly) they have been over-taxed to pay for the “baby-boomers” and the “baby-makers”. I can only guess these demographic groups are numerically small, and their votes would never count enough to make a difference.
Rain,
Good points; singles especially were realy slugged under Howard. I am over 40 and admit I benefitted from the house price inflation. I do feel sorry for those under 30 though, who were economically done over by Howard policies and must struggle more than normal to buy a house. It is a national problem that needs fixing. Otherwise the only recourse left to the young will be to demand higher wages to match, leading to a high inflation episode and probably recession.
430 Glen – one has to say that well 52.5% of the Australian electorate don’t believe your crap re union hacks.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/03/2108345.htm
Huzzah
One of the stupidest pillars of the Howard regime toppled in seconds.
Wilkie 29 behind.
Wilkie, go you good thing!!!!!
So we have signed the protocol but let me get this right did i not read in the paper that most of the signatories have gone above their agreements, and is it not true that our State governments are busily doing the opposite by building more freeways, more coal fired power stations and desalination plants. To me the rhetoric has changed that is what is different.
Left E, @ 445
A great day – there seems to be a lot of them recently.
I’m still not sure why howard, with all his rat instincts, let Kyoto go. Why he did not ratify it and get moving on carbon trading scheme is something of a mystery.
Was he that dumb? That much in trall of bush?