Late mail

There are no fewer than seven seats which are still too close to call a week after polling day, with less than 0.3 per cent separating the two parties. The AEC’s official Close Seats list further includes Flynn and La Trobe, but these are all but certain to respectively go with Labor and Liberal. Corangamite briefly popped on to the list a few days ago, but it’s gone now. Two other seats that could be of at least theoretical interest come the preference count are O’Connor and Calare. In O’Connor, Nationals candidate Philip Gardiner (18.37 per cent) has a vague hope of getting ahead of Labor (20.42 per cent) on preferences from, among others, the Greens (6.68 per cent), and then overcoming Liberal member Wilson Tuckey (45.25 per cent) on Labor preferences. Similarly, in Calare the independent candidate Gavin Priestley (23.73 per cent) might be able to overcome Labor (24.84 per cent) with preferences from the Greens (2.60 per cent) and the Citizens Electoral Council (0.94 per cent, which was boosted by a donkey vote that will flow on to Labor) and then, just maybe, within spitting distance of John Cobb of the Nationals (47.89 per cent). For some reason only ordinary votes have been counted to this point in O’Connor.

Bowman. Labor’s Jason Young narrowly led Liberal incumbent Andrew Laming from election night until Tuesday when Laming got his nose in front on pre-polls, but this has proved to be the only close electorate where postals have favoured Labor. Young recovered the tiniest of leads and has inched slowly ahead to his current lead of 116 votes.

Herbert. Liberal incumbent Peter Lindsay leads by just 60 votes, and I have unconfirmed reports that only provisional votes remain to be counted. Last time provisionals favoured Lindsay 279-257: if there’s the same number this time and they swing the same way as the rest, Colbran will close the gap by 45 votes and lose by 15.

McEwen. Another seat where Labor was ahead on election night, but postals put Liberal incumbent Fran Bailey a very handy 502 votes up on Monday. That looked like it might be enough, but a remarkably good partial count of absent votes pulled it into 111 yesterday. Further counting of pre-polls then pushed her lead out to 150.

Solomon. Labor’s Damian Hale was a full 1.0 per cent ahead on election night, but late factors such as overseas Defence Force votes have steadily whittled it down to 262 votes, or 0.3 per cent. That leaves some hope for CLP incumbent Dave Tollner, though Hale should probably get up.

Swan. Labor incumbent Kim Wilkie had a 134-vote lead on election night, but has since had to watch as each new batch of votes has delivered a few dozen votes to Liberal candidate Steve Irons, who currently leads by 239 and is looking increasingly likely to emerge as the only Liberal candidate to topple a sitting Labor MP.

Dickson. Labor’s Fiona McNamara had reason to feel confident about her 425-vote lead on election night, but a strong performance on postals by Liberal member Peter Dutton pushed him 268 votes ahead on Wednesday. The seat has since provided Labor with some rare late count good news, absents and pre-polls reeling in the lead in to just 106.

Robertson. This one hadn’t been on my watch list, with Labor candidate Belinda Neal holding a formidable 1094 vote lead on election night. However, Liberal member Jim Lloyd has kept whittling away Neal’s lead, once again being boosted by postals which have gone 58-42 in his favour. Neal’s lead is now just 273 – too close to comfort, but probably just enough.

To illustrate the recurring theme of Liberal comebacks, here is a table comparing party support by type of vote cast for 2004 and 2007, bearing in mind that the 2007 figures are still incomplete. While there was a slightly better performance by the Coalition in declaration votes across the board, it does seem they have managed to produce their best results on postals where it has mattered most.

ORDINARY ABSENT PRE-POLL POSTAL
2007 2004 2007 2004 2007 2004 2007 2004
Labor
 44.0 38.3 5.8 39.3 34.0 5.4 41.1 34.9 6.2 40.2 34.4 5.9
Coalition
 41.7 46.5 -4.8 40.8 44.2 -3.4 45.3 48.3 -3.0 49.2 52.9 -3.7
Greens
 7.6 7.0 0.6 12.1 10.9 1.2 6.7 7.9 -1.2 5.0 4.9 0.1

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

683 comments on “Late mail”

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  2. 200 – Antonio
    Yes, also the accumulation of resentment about the lies, upon lies, upon lies,also finally burst forth from voters without the Tampa or the leadership obstacle in previous elections this time. The electorate never liked the Howarrd government, but couldn”‘t see its way clear until now to toss them out.

  3. Lord Nelson is truly a great leader, and almost as one eyed as his namesake, (either that or he’s been peering into too many keyholes for kicks). Insiders was priceless today, and proved what a sublime choice for the non-Liberal party Nelson is. We chortled and cheered as he side-stepped the questions and did a few a turns and came out talking to Rudd, talking about Rudd, and talking like Rudd. He ruddywell tied himself in knots, while having us in stitches.

    Now, get this straight: Horatio Hornet is going to make a beeline (or should that be more WASPish?) for the things that matter, and whoa, there’ll be no sorry-ising from his lips. Nup, none of those slippery symbolic gestures for our Hornet, he’s going to be talking about the shocking state of our nation’s health system, and its neglected infrastructure! But don’t get him wrong, he’s a CONSERVATIVE in capital letters, prays for the Queen, and won’t be changing anything, despite the fact that “our Federation has let us down”.

    No sir, our Brengun shoots from the mouth as soon as his foot is out of it.

    I’d defy any of our comedians to come up with a better performance than the one Lord Half Nelson gave Insiders today. Clarke and Dawe have met their match, as Horatio is simply without peer. What a cack!

  4. 203 KB – Good one – Who was Clouseau’s superior officer in the Pink Panther? Anyway the Admiral will be twitching like him if he keeps this please everybody charade going

  5. Kirriblli,I saw Lord Nelson on Insiders with a bloke who didnt know who he was and his reaction was,who in the hell is this wanker,I told him and he said well they got no hope in hell.

  6. If Herbert ends up being close(100 votes or so) can the challenger call for a recount???

    Townsville needs Labor to win otherwise we won’t recieve any of the goodies, and our V8 race will be delayed for ANOTHER 3 years!

  7. Would love to see an end to symbolic appoinments, such as the GG, being made to ex military officials.

    Bugger. I was hoping to be asked 😉

    But the previous one to Jefferys was a long time ago, must be at least 40 years.

    I know some will not like me saying this, but I think its time Australia matured & stopped looking at military achievements/past battles for its identity. For example, I think its a bit sad that we focus so much on Anzac Day as our defining moment as a nation.

    To the extent we should I believe the enphasis should be on WW2, which is a war we did need to win.

    IMHO, the problem with glorifying any aspect of WW1 is that it was mostly war for the sake of war.There was no great cause that warranted the huge sacrifice or the terrible events that were set in train. If it hadn’t been fought we wouldn’t have wasted nearly a whole generation on the killing fields of France or Gallipoli, the Depression may not have occurred , Hitler would have remained an insignificant paperhanger, the Soviet Union probably wouldn’t have existed, and WW2, the Korean, Vietnam, both Afghani, and maybe even the current Iraq wars would not have been fought.

    So, honour those who died for they knew nothing of the consequences, but not the war, or its battles.

    Oh, and I wouldn’t be wasting William’s bandwidth, which is reason enough to condemn those who lead Europe to war in 1914!

  8. LaborVoter, I’m certain that there will be a recount in Herbert, unless Lindsay picks up the majority of what is left to count and wins by more than 200.
    Is Rudd interested in V8s?

  9. I heard Nelson in one breath saying he would hold Labor to all their election promises, and in another breath saying he would not necessarily let them dismantle WorkChoices – their main promise! In fact I seem to remember the last PM saying “This election is a referendum on WorkChoices” – what was the result of that referendum, Mr.Nelson?

  12. It’s over a week since the election and the AEC still hasn’t given a preference distribution in O’Connor. William, you are the only media I’ve seen which says this seat remains in doubt. I agree with you, but I’d like to see the AEC reveal some figures. What’s going on?

  14. #208
    Progressive Says:
    December 2nd, 2007 at 10:49 pm
    “LaborVoter, I’m certain that there will be a recount in Herbert, unless Lindsay picks up the majority of what is left to count and wins by more than 200.
    Is Rudd interested in V8s?”

    Both George Colbran(Labor) and Peter Lindsay(Liberal) have promised bringing the V8’s to Townsville.

    I dunno how these things work, but I think if Lindsay wins then Labor won’t want to pay for the V8’s as it will just prop Peter Lindsay up.

    V8 supercars is the biggest issue facing us in the Townsville electorate… Colbran CAN NOT lose!

  17. How come last Sat nite 77.5% were counted and a week later aec still have not counted all ‘ ORDINARY ‘ votes personally cast at the booths

    Voters votes who voted in the wrong Division should have been counted by now
    as well

  18. Just logged on and what a surprise… ruawake has said something ignorant.

    ruawake you accuse me of being thick for saying my brother in law had been on an AWA-style agreement for more than a decade…. you ask when AWAs came in, suggesting it was not a decade ago? well, sadly you are once again out of your depth…the reason i said AWA-type agreements was that it was not originally an AWA… the Court government introduced AWA type agreements (they had a different name though) before the Howard Govt did…. had you been listening to Julie Bishop the other day you would have known this.

    It is one thing to be a lefty, but please dont be an ignorant one, and if you are going to accuse someone of being thick, be sure you are on solid ground. i assure you in my case you rarely will be

  19. William your chart of postal & pre poll % ‘s between 2004 and 2007 , does this indicate LCP better postal organization in 2007 or the base lowest bias of LCP voter % in the postal area

  22. I am simply saying that anyone who still supports the ‘AWA’s slavery concept
    is ignorant. It is a system that operated up to the end of the 19th Century

  26. #
    223
    10pse Says:
    December 3rd, 2007 at 12:01 am

    Whilst I understand the analogy you are drawing Ron, it really does not work.

    Why not….a worker under work choices trying to negotiate for himself NORMALLY has no even negotiating playing field.

    This position last applied to workers pre the advent of Unions in the 19th Century

  27. Agree with you about O’Connor William.

    My understanding is that the AEC have been instructed to do a 2PP count between the majors in O’Connor (and Melbourne) much to the annoyance of the Nats.

    They will have to get the count done soon though because the Libs and the Nats are voting on leaders and appointing shadows and the like.

  28. respectfully i disagree. i am not suggesting the playing field is always even… but employees are so much more needed and valued today and have so many more protections that comparisons to yesteryear are not helpful really

  30. respectfully i disagree. i am not suggesting the playing field is always even… but employees are so much more needed and valued today and have so many more protections that comparisons to yesteryear are not helpful really

    cheers

  31. [respectfully i disagree. i am not suggesting the playing field is always even… but employees are so much more needed and valued today and have so many more protections that comparisons to yesteryear are not helpful really]

    I completely don’t understand the proposition that there is huge demand for low skilled workers. If that was the case employers would be paying double or triple the award.

    What there seems to be high demand for is high demand workers willing to work for the award.

  33. #
    230
    10pse Says:
    December 3rd, 2007 at 12:42 am

    respectfully i disagree. i am not suggesting the playing field is always even… but employees are so much more needed and valued today and have so many more protections that comparisons to yesteryear are not helpful really

    cheers

    Having been an Employer of hundreds over 30 years in various Industries , it still
    appears there are people who do NOT understand the basic inequity and immorality to workers of work choices …by avoiding condemning it outright

    ANYONE who does not condemn work choices is really supporting it without the courage to say so.

    I negotiated with workers collectively (via Unions and workers collectively without Union representation) which strenghened their bargaining position vs me
    but negotiation is about outcomes based on net wages vs productivity
    which sensible negotiators understand

  34. 10pse Says:
    December 3rd, 2007 at 12:42 am

    respectfully i disagree. i am not suggesting the playing field is always even… but employees are so much more needed and valued today and have so many more protections that comparisons to yesteryear are not helpful really

    cheers

    The problem is not one for the miner or the engineer, the problem is for the sales person at your local retail outlet. If you can’t see that then you really are self centered.

    Workchoices is an absolute disaster for our society and I happen to be an employer (one who is sticking to the awards as a basis for employment conditions).

    If the Liberal party will not be of any value until they get ever it, and past the current comedy routine.

  35. There has been some comment regarding Lindsaygate causing the downfall of the Rat Pack, what absolute piffle. All this did in the voter’s minds was to confirm what they already knew, the Coalition were tricky and corrupt, and it was time for a fresh start. Lindsay itself was gone for all money anyway, but they just could not resist the temptation to revert to type and carry out one more smear campaign. Begone you rabble.

  36. 10pse

    What you describe has been happening using individual employment contacts under common law since at least 1980.

    If you think AWAs are the only way to get flexibility you really are as I described. 😛

  38. Snake

    I’m told the Howard memoirs is a very short book consisting mostly of the phrases.

    “I don’t recall”

    “I didn’t say that”

    “To the best of my memory I can not remember”

    “I can not recollect that conversation”

  39. I wouldn’t cross the street to see a V8 Supercar, but the rev-heads in Townsville should check the fine-print of what promises Rudd made.

    Did he promise that Townsville would get V8 Supercars if Colbran won, or did he promises that Townsville would get V8 Supercars if Labor won the election?

    I would expect a promise is a promise, irrespective of how individual electorates voted. The same applies to the assorted bits of road pork Rudd promised to individual electorates. If it’s a pledge by the government it should be honoured, irrespective of what party the local member belongs to.

  40. 237 – There will be a second book written in consultation with senior public servants that will include all the things that Howard was never told. 🙂

  41. 239
    Petrie is Coming Home

    You beat me to it by a whisker! Ha, but that’s OK, maybe we should start a title competition, how about:

    The Howard Years: The greatest story never told.

    …just to kick it off!

  42. A V8 Supercar Race for Townsville?

    Why should taxpayer funds be expended on an entertainment that is of interest to a very small proportion of the population of Australia?

    The participants all seem to be quite wealthy. Perhaps they could create their own facility?

  43. If you take as look at say McEwan

    http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-226.htm

    It reports

    Declaration Vote Scrutiny Progress Absent Provisional Pre-Poll Postal Total
    Envelopes Issued 9,525 1,091 7,918 8,338 26,872
    Envelopes Received 2,451 1,091 2,564 5,915 12,021
    Rejected at Preliminary Scrutiny 2 0 4 11 0
    Ballot Papers Counted 2,227 0 5,421 7,158

    Postal votes issued 8,338 Received back 5,915

    All good BUT how is it that they have counted 7,158 if only 5,915 have been received back…

    Somehow I think it is a bug in the AEC web site… If you shift the columns by one then maybe it reads correctly.. I am begining to underatand why the AEC does not publish the scrutiny data in comparison with the election results.

    Clearly this information should have been more readily available

    Nine seats are within 0.05%…

  44. 227
    Regarding counting of Lab & Lib votes first in O’Connor…

    The Victorian equiv. of the AEC did this in East Gippsland when Craig Ingram (indep.) won the seat on ALP prefs from the Nat. sitting member Doug Treasure (aka the ‘Hidden Treasure’) the year that Kennet lost gov’t.

    On the night it was obvious to scrutineers by 8.30pm that the ALP would come in 3 and push Ingram across the line. However the electoral computers – as well as Antony Green’s at the ABC – hadn’t been programmed for the ALP to not be in the top 2 vote winners, so the call on the night was comprehensively wrong.

    In the end it took a couple of weeks for the final result to be declared. If only I had been aware of electronic betting back then – not sure it was even available – I could’ve made a killing.

  45. Calare is an interesting seat.

    The Declaration Progress page shows:

    – there are 5068 absent votes to be counted.

    – there were 3,360 postal vote envelopes issued but 4,022 “received”.

    Is this an anomaly?

  46. PM Rudd is now sworn in!!! Hoooorraayyyyyyyy 🙂

    Some how I don’t think the next PM of Australia surname will not begin with a N or a T. LOLOLOLOL!!!

  49. To steal a line form George Costanza – I think a great title for any book on the Howard Era would be “Its not a lie if you believe it”.

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