There are no fewer than seven seats which are still too close to call a week after polling day, with less than 0.3 per cent separating the two parties. The AEC’s official Close Seats list further includes Flynn and La Trobe, but these are all but certain to respectively go with Labor and Liberal. Corangamite briefly popped on to the list a few days ago, but it’s gone now. Two other seats that could be of at least theoretical interest come the preference count are O’Connor and Calare. In O’Connor, Nationals candidate Philip Gardiner (18.37 per cent) has a vague hope of getting ahead of Labor (20.42 per cent) on preferences from, among others, the Greens (6.68 per cent), and then overcoming Liberal member Wilson Tuckey (45.25 per cent) on Labor preferences. Similarly, in Calare the independent candidate Gavin Priestley (23.73 per cent) might be able to overcome Labor (24.84 per cent) with preferences from the Greens (2.60 per cent) and the Citizens Electoral Council (0.94 per cent, which was boosted by a donkey vote that will flow on to Labor) and then, just maybe, within spitting distance of John Cobb of the Nationals (47.89 per cent). For some reason only ordinary votes have been counted to this point in O’Connor.
Bowman. Labor’s Jason Young narrowly led Liberal incumbent Andrew Laming from election night until Tuesday when Laming got his nose in front on pre-polls, but this has proved to be the only close electorate where postals have favoured Labor. Young recovered the tiniest of leads and has inched slowly ahead to his current lead of 116 votes.
Herbert. Liberal incumbent Peter Lindsay leads by just 60 votes, and I have unconfirmed reports that only provisional votes remain to be counted. Last time provisionals favoured Lindsay 279-257: if there’s the same number this time and they swing the same way as the rest, Colbran will close the gap by 45 votes and lose by 15.
McEwen. Another seat where Labor was ahead on election night, but postals put Liberal incumbent Fran Bailey a very handy 502 votes up on Monday. That looked like it might be enough, but a remarkably good partial count of absent votes pulled it into 111 yesterday. Further counting of pre-polls then pushed her lead out to 150.
Solomon. Labor’s Damian Hale was a full 1.0 per cent ahead on election night, but late factors such as overseas Defence Force votes have steadily whittled it down to 262 votes, or 0.3 per cent. That leaves some hope for CLP incumbent Dave Tollner, though Hale should probably get up.
Swan. Labor incumbent Kim Wilkie had a 134-vote lead on election night, but has since had to watch as each new batch of votes has delivered a few dozen votes to Liberal candidate Steve Irons, who currently leads by 239 and is looking increasingly likely to emerge as the only Liberal candidate to topple a sitting Labor MP.
Dickson. Labor’s Fiona McNamara had reason to feel confident about her 425-vote lead on election night, but a strong performance on postals by Liberal member Peter Dutton pushed him 268 votes ahead on Wednesday. The seat has since provided Labor with some rare late count good news, absents and pre-polls reeling in the lead in to just 106.
Robertson. This one hadn’t been on my watch list, with Labor candidate Belinda Neal holding a formidable 1094 vote lead on election night. However, Liberal member Jim Lloyd has kept whittling away Neal’s lead, once again being boosted by postals which have gone 58-42 in his favour. Neal’s lead is now just 273 – too close to comfort, but probably just enough.
To illustrate the recurring theme of Liberal comebacks, here is a table comparing party support by type of vote cast for 2004 and 2007, bearing in mind that the 2007 figures are still incomplete. While there was a slightly better performance by the Coalition in declaration votes across the board, it does seem they have managed to produce their best results on postals where it has mattered most.
| ORDINARY | ABSENT | PRE-POLL | POSTAL | |||||||||||||
| 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | |||||||||
|
Labor
|
44.0 | 38.3 | 5.8 | 39.3 | 34.0 | 5.4 | 41.1 | 34.9 | 6.2 | 40.2 | 34.4 | 5.9 | ||||
|
Coalition
|
41.7 | 46.5 | -4.8 | 40.8 | 44.2 | -3.4 | 45.3 | 48.3 | -3.0 | 49.2 | 52.9 | -3.7 | ||||
|
Greens
|
7.6 | 7.0 | 0.6 | 12.1 | 10.9 | 1.2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | -1.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 0.1 | ||||
John. As you may not need to identify yourself than by that name can you please tell me the following of your AWA –
1) what is it you do for a living & which state do you live?
2) what was your previous pay & conditions &
3) what conditions have you forsake to have a better pay deal on a AWA?
4) was your AWA done before or after the fairness clause was tag on?
I am serious about trying to distinguish if you are really on a better deal or not.
Trivia question: Sorry if its been brought up before.
What do Julia Gillard, Julie Bishop, Brendan Nelson and Therese Rein all have in common?
Ave it 07 says”..I Agree! Sensible posters only!”
Ave It, the cyanide capsule is sewn in to the collar of your brown shirt. Chow down baby.
Diogenes,
they all wear ear rings.
RE AWA S
Those on good money do well eg Laws & Jones in the NSW radio industry
however if you have no bargaining power you lose badly
In the Federal Public Service where I work each agency would have
it”s own agreement for all and you would either accept it or lose your job
My agreement is through a union !!!
152 Diogenes
All were originally croweaters. Furthermore Bishop and Rein both went to St Peters Girls College.
154 GG-LOL!
Actually, they all grew up in SA and then left. I think all their parents still live here.
143
fred Says:
December 2nd, 2007 at 6:32 pm
#142
“I’m on an AWA and am very happy with it, just like everybody I know employed on an AWA. Do you actually know anybody on an AWA?’
I know both ends, it suits a minority – but under bargained agreements, there is nothing stopping an employer paying “above award” or giving better conditions individually or collectively – there never was a barrier for employers rewarding the higher-performing individuals, should they so wish.
Saw a guy on 4-Corners who honestly thought that Unionised or enterprise-bargained safety-net minimum conditions/payscales etc would take money off him? Bizarre.
156 Don Wigan- I just looked their ages up and theyre only 2 years apart. Wonder if they knew each other at school. Saints Girls wasnt very big back then.
Still waiting (I love my AWA) John.
The AEC are not on AWAs – no counting on a Sunday. 🙂
Hi all,
I live in Sydney but am ex WA. My sister’s husband has been on some form of AWA-type agreement for more than a decade (different agreements of course, as re-negotiated several times). He loved the fact that when they had kids (they now have 3) he was able to change his terms of employment several times to create circumstances that worked for his family, without having to change from full-time. He works in the resources/mining sector, and has changed from for instance 2 weeks on 2 weeks off site (used to be typical) to 7 days on 7 days off and other combinations… the point is all of the combinations he as wanted to change to require him to be on non-award conditions. He gets very well paid. I asked him about what he thought going into this election and he said he was dreading Labor coming in because they would make it much much harder for him in terms of what sort of arrangements he could have.
Respectfully, this is one of the reasons the WA vote was high and will remain high for the Coalition (plus WA is generally hig for Coalition federally).
Another reason is WA as seen how much productivity soars when unions are kept in check, particularly in the construction industry. Compare that to the debacle of NSW trains and Sydney ferries
cheers
10pse.
“some form of AWA-type agreement for more than a decade”.
Yes like what? A collective agreement? When were AWAs introduced? I think you will find it was less than a decade ago.
Good gracious some people are thick. 🙂
AWAs were introduced by the Liberals and the Democrats in 1996.
154
Greeensborough Growler – Once again you are wrong, Nelson only wore one ear ring not earrings…
Sounds as if they might have known each other, Diogenes.
Interestingly, our Jasmine (ALP-leaning lawyer) over in WA has a high opinion of Bishop. Possibly knows her through WA legal circles. This is in contrast to most ALP PB bloggers who find her a bit of a dill. In a general sense, she has got off to a bad start as a Minister by going in to bat for Howard’s Culture Wars.
Sadly, it is typical of Howard that the most (small ‘l’) liberal ones get the nastiest jobs – vide Rudd and Vanstone. But if she wants others beside Glen to admire her, she’ll have to shed a lot of that Howard baggage.
10pse. Going on previous post earlier today I take it that your a ‘dye in the wool’ tory. Suit yourself. To day is the LAST day that OLD Johnny boy will be PM. As Mr T once said….’I pity da FOOL’ !! 🙂
for the libs to get back in S.A. they first of all have to do something about Hamilton Smith, he does nothing but whine and complain, he’s never yet come up with a viable alternative or told us what he’d do to to fix whatever his latest whinge is about, even when Rann and co come up with something good he has to front up before the cameras and have a whinge.
it’s hard to respect him when his first essay into parliament as leader was a stunt– that someone leaked to labor and so fell flatter than a pancake, i know as opposition he has to differentiate himself from the government, but gee he could learn a lot from Rudd who didnt mind giving credit where it was due, everyone i know, even my lib pals have stopped listening to his constant harping, it gets depressing after a while.
[for the libs to get back in S.A. they first of all have to do something about Hamilton Smith, he does nothing but whine and complain, he’s never yet come up with a viable alternative]
Hamilton-Smith has come up with some policies. For example, his policy to tackle the water shortage is to end water restrictions, but to charge consumers double or triple for water. Businesses get to continue paying the same price they currently pay.
I think that counts as a new policy, I just don’t think many people will vote for it.
168 judy- I’m not even sure the Libs want to get back in in SA. They seem to be so bone idle lazy that Opposition suits them. What do you do in opposition? If you don’t want to get back in, all you have to do is turn up, collect your pay, go out for lunch, read the paper and go home. What the hell are they doing, except for MHS and Chapman, I never see them. I think they like the lack of responsibility and quiet time. They really need a rocket.
Thanks for that local info, Judy, which as another SA ex-pat I miss, albeit my ability to care has diminished since the passing of Don Dunstan.
On another bit of nostalgia, Judy, it is sad to read of the death of Ken McGregor, another Westies football star of the 50s, although better remembered nationally as a tennis and Davis Cup great.
When the next Governor-General is appointed (I think next year), I hope Rudd makes a good appointment based on merit and not some symbolic gesture. I don’t think O’Donoghue would be a good choice.
My recommendation would be Justice Michael Kirby of the High Court. He is due for retirement in March 2009. I feel he would fill the role admirably, somewhat similar to Sir William Deane in outlook and who was one of our greatest ever GGs.
Michael Kirby is a brilliant speaker, a very passionate and compassionate man, and would do Australia proud at home and abroad.
On the subject of SA Politics & whining – I’m not sure whether those in SA remember it, but Rann was one of the biggest whiners around in opposition. I’m an ALP supporter, but found it to be almost intolerable at the time.
Having made that observation, I think his transformation from the whining opposition leader to the positive Premier in a very short time, surprised & impressed many. In fact, I recall several family members comment on the positive change & their surprise that he had it in him.
Pi, well said and a shame you will cease with this blog. Have thoroughly enjoyed your contributions and hope you will pop in now and then for those of us still in thrall.
Would love to see an end to symbolic appoinments, such as the GG, being made to ex military officials.
I know some will not like me saying this, but I think its time Australia matured & stopped looking at military achievements/past battles for its identity. For example, I think its a bit sad that we focus so much on Anzac Day as our defining moment as a nation.
Australian Bureau of Statistics figures for March 2005 show that hourly wages of workers on AWAs were two percent lower than the hourly wages of workers on registered collective agreements, mostly negotiated by unions.
What are the Stats now?
We must be just about due for a fortnightly Newspoll, mustn’t we?
[I think its time Australia matured & stopped looking at military achievements/past battles for its identity]
Really, Triffid?
Some alternative histories come to mind –
“3 December 2007. At Yarralumla the the Imperial Viceroy announced that in Tokyo yesterday the Emperor had approved a new Council of Advisers for the Prefecture of Australia….”
M.H.S.’s plan for his first foray into parliament as a new lib leader, was for the libs to all file in and just sit there and do and say nothing, i’m still scratching my head over what that was supposed to prove, maybe i’m a bit thicker than i thought but if anyone can come up with a sensible explanation i’m willing to learn.
Glen and a couple of libs in here are actually excellent debators as a rule, has any other Adelaide folk here caught Monica or Mignon on radio 5AA? every time i tune in i seem to catch one or the other of them in a rant over how the libs were robbed of government by the media, Mignon seems to think Rupert was behind Rudd’s winning the election, — did we sound so delusional when Howard kept winning? hmmm well, maybe yes a little, i guess someone had better break it to them gently that the election is over now and all the tanty’s on air aint going to change a thing for the next few years, thats democracy.
AWA’s???
What’s the use in arguing over a bad experiment that will be history?
Being an employer, it would never be a reality, I have enough bullshit paperwork to do as I’m an unpaid tax collector.
# 132 – Good call, Pi. The Fifth Estate is the perfect monika for the blogosphere.
And I whole-heartedly support your remarks re: Bill Bowe and this excellent Pollbludger site. I came here late, like a refugee, from Bryan’s “Ozpolitics”. Thanks for having me.
Great analysis and truth beneath the froth to be found here.
The Fifth Estate rocks.
172 gregbris – I whole-heartedly agree with your suggestion for GG – Justice Michael Kirby. He is obviously an intelligent and compassionate man – perfect for the role as GG, then as President when we get our Republic. I assume the Libs will now support the Republic?
The ALP could have picked up at least 4 seats in WA instead of losing one. if it was not for millionaire unionists such as Kevin Reynolds and his tattle-tale wife Shelley Archer. Would you believe the member for Perth was on some “foreign affairs” business in Canberra on election day spruiking for the ABC.
Don Wigan Says:
December 2nd, 2007 at 8:23 pm
Thanks for that local info, Judy, which as another SA ex-pat I miss, albeit my ability to care has diminished since the passing of Don Dunstan.
On another bit of nostalgia, Judy, it is sad to read of the death of Ken McGregor, another Westies football star of the 50s, although better remembered nationally as a tennis and Davis Cup great.
Don i was never a tennis follower, but as you know i’m a Westie tragic and Ken was one of our premiership greats, footie was always his first love, he ranks up there with the best, with Jimmy Wright, Clarry {bang bang} Cannon and co, my dad was the treasurer, my uncle was captain and my aunt and uncle ran the footballers club in their time, last time i was at Richmond they had set up memorabilia rooms for the greats, i follow the Crows in the AFL and i’m a gold card member, but my Westies will always be my real love.
sorry about digressing William.
Re the AWA’s. We all know of people who are on them . A close relative of mine had to sign one. “Sign here if you want the job” was the gist of it. She earns so little that she can’t afford private health insurance, and can’t afford a car. She has tried to get other jobs, but lives in a regional centre (with a National Party rep. in parliament) so the good jobs are still pretty scarce. Despite the fact that there are all those ‘wonderful’ jobs created by the outgoing government, maybe it’s time to analyse the quality of those jobs, not just the quantity. My relative would love to join a union, but like so many others, she feels intimidated by her employers. This is the reality of AWAs, and is perhaps a principal reason that so many people voted the Howard government out. It’s hardly a ‘relaxed and comfortable’ scenario when all the aces are in the employers hands.
Incidentally, and off topic, it’s been raining long and hard in eastern Australia since Kev was elected. I knew that it would, hence my name!
Kirby would be great as GG, i never took much interest in him till he was smeared in cowards castle, when i found the sort of man he was i got on my high horse and ranted in the ear of every pollie i knew, as times gone on my respect for him just grew and grew.
Don Wigan, i think Dunstans micro mini pink shorts were a stunner lol, only he had the panache to wear them in parliament and carry it off lol, i became close to some of the pollies in the Chris Summner as AG days, though Lyn Arnold was a friend from way before then, Chris became a good friend and saw me through some of my worst times, Rann and Atkinson both treat me with respect and Rann kept his promise that he would bring in legislation to keep Von Einam behind bars forever, for that i’m in his debt forever.
As has been asked elsewhere, if AWAs are not generally used to reduce wages/conditions, why are companies reportedly rushing to sign them before the change to legislation? Are they sprinting to pay more money before they are required to sign collective agreements for less cash?
If so, do you want to buy this harbour bridge I have for sale? I will even throw in some magic beans.
As a Redlegs fanatic, I acknowledge Ken McGregor as a true and humble champion in both football and tennis. Sadly, Westies always got pipped by Port Adelaide in those days.
The problem with AWAs and the rest of WorkChoices is not what effects they have now, but what effect they would have if there was an economic downturn and companies were forced to shed staff and reduce costs. We would undoubtedly see a lot of basic conditions eroded, and workers laid off with retrenchment pay.
Howard and Costello’s last-minute pre-election tactic, of warning that the economic clouds were building was counter productive. It just reminded voters what WorkChoices would mean in a recession. The same thing happened when Hewson launched Fightback. It’s not that people really wanted to vote Keating back in, but that Hewson’s cure hurt more than the ailment.
The only protection the Coalition offered for workers in hard times was to farmers (and racehorses).
#189 should, of course, read “WITHOUT retrenchment pay”!
#24 Sportingbet has accepted my withdrawal request. I hope it’ll go through. Did you try to withdraw?
Phil, yup we were pipped but we went down with dignity, that just made our few victories all that much sweeter, i was in queensland when we took the premiership in the early sixties, i flew home for the victory ball and never went back.
we used to get up on the hill at Adelaide oval and razz the port mob and they’d razz us back, it was all good humour not the virulent spite thats dished out nowadays between the Crows and Power, i dont think Chocco helps with that — he mouths off too much, but his dad now, EVERYONE, no matter what team respected him, Chocco could look and learn from him, i dont think Westies treated Doug Thomas very well in the end, the new board have no respect for tradition, pity that it had to end as it did for a wonderful stalward who gave his life to the club.
Queenslander keeps his head down!
Previously provided evidence for La Nina’s observation about the rain. But what the heck, I’ll do it again. It is a lovely picture…
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/rainmaps.cgi?page=oldmap&variable=totals&period=week&area=aus&steps=1
162
10pse Says:
Probably another reason on the list of why the WA Libs should break off and form their own party. The Liberals out there just simply stand for different things than the rest of the country. The rest of the country can’t keep and won’t keep AWA’s just to keep the West Aussies happy. Kevin and Julia are going to consult with the industries out there and make their changes in as consultative a fashion as they can. Changes will come though.
Just briefly looking in – great summary of the close seats William. I see my seat Robertson is still a victim of mediocrity … either way … Where’s Adam to explain the reason for thie failure for Belinda to surge over the line given her dynamic attributes and the general swing?
pissant libs is now an oxymoron………….and rightly.so
sorry,……………..i meant oxy…………moron
redundant…………….tautology
Re the intro to the thread….I think we should be suspicious of stories that the Libs might have snatched the election if it wasn’t for the Jackie Kelly “Chaser-style prank”. I certainly think it was a factor in the huge swings in Lindsay and Macarthur, and maybe it influenced the Bennelong result. But Lindsay was gone anyway. There were no real surprises in the NSW results, except perhaps the size of the swing in Page, which I would attribute to “sea change” and associated demographic and infrastructure issues.
But I doubt that it sank in with too many voters in states like Queensland and Victoria. Many would not have even known about it.
Blaming an election loss on Kelly is a denial that there were many other factors, including Howard being too long in the job, WorkChoices, and Rudd’s emphases on education and climate change.
The argument that Howard’s warning of a “tsunami” was changing voters’ minds is at odds with the big swings in mortgage belts in nearly all states.
And Alistair Drysdale is a former Liberal spinner, of considerable renown. He may still be spinning.