There are no fewer than seven seats which are still too close to call a week after polling day, with less than 0.3 per cent separating the two parties. The AEC’s official Close Seats list further includes Flynn and La Trobe, but these are all but certain to respectively go with Labor and Liberal. Corangamite briefly popped on to the list a few days ago, but it’s gone now. Two other seats that could be of at least theoretical interest come the preference count are O’Connor and Calare. In O’Connor, Nationals candidate Philip Gardiner (18.37 per cent) has a vague hope of getting ahead of Labor (20.42 per cent) on preferences from, among others, the Greens (6.68 per cent), and then overcoming Liberal member Wilson Tuckey (45.25 per cent) on Labor preferences. Similarly, in Calare the independent candidate Gavin Priestley (23.73 per cent) might be able to overcome Labor (24.84 per cent) with preferences from the Greens (2.60 per cent) and the Citizens Electoral Council (0.94 per cent, which was boosted by a donkey vote that will flow on to Labor) and then, just maybe, within spitting distance of John Cobb of the Nationals (47.89 per cent). For some reason only ordinary votes have been counted to this point in O’Connor.
Bowman. Labor’s Jason Young narrowly led Liberal incumbent Andrew Laming from election night until Tuesday when Laming got his nose in front on pre-polls, but this has proved to be the only close electorate where postals have favoured Labor. Young recovered the tiniest of leads and has inched slowly ahead to his current lead of 116 votes.
Herbert. Liberal incumbent Peter Lindsay leads by just 60 votes, and I have unconfirmed reports that only provisional votes remain to be counted. Last time provisionals favoured Lindsay 279-257: if there’s the same number this time and they swing the same way as the rest, Colbran will close the gap by 45 votes and lose by 15.
McEwen. Another seat where Labor was ahead on election night, but postals put Liberal incumbent Fran Bailey a very handy 502 votes up on Monday. That looked like it might be enough, but a remarkably good partial count of absent votes pulled it into 111 yesterday. Further counting of pre-polls then pushed her lead out to 150.
Solomon. Labor’s Damian Hale was a full 1.0 per cent ahead on election night, but late factors such as overseas Defence Force votes have steadily whittled it down to 262 votes, or 0.3 per cent. That leaves some hope for CLP incumbent Dave Tollner, though Hale should probably get up.
Swan. Labor incumbent Kim Wilkie had a 134-vote lead on election night, but has since had to watch as each new batch of votes has delivered a few dozen votes to Liberal candidate Steve Irons, who currently leads by 239 and is looking increasingly likely to emerge as the only Liberal candidate to topple a sitting Labor MP.
Dickson. Labor’s Fiona McNamara had reason to feel confident about her 425-vote lead on election night, but a strong performance on postals by Liberal member Peter Dutton pushed him 268 votes ahead on Wednesday. The seat has since provided Labor with some rare late count good news, absents and pre-polls reeling in the lead in to just 106.
Robertson. This one hadn’t been on my watch list, with Labor candidate Belinda Neal holding a formidable 1094 vote lead on election night. However, Liberal member Jim Lloyd has kept whittling away Neal’s lead, once again being boosted by postals which have gone 58-42 in his favour. Neal’s lead is now just 273 – too close to comfort, but probably just enough.
To illustrate the recurring theme of Liberal comebacks, here is a table comparing party support by type of vote cast for 2004 and 2007, bearing in mind that the 2007 figures are still incomplete. While there was a slightly better performance by the Coalition in declaration votes across the board, it does seem they have managed to produce their best results on postals where it has mattered most.
| ORDINARY | ABSENT | PRE-POLL | POSTAL | |||||||||||||
| 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | |||||||||
|
Labor
|
44.0 | 38.3 | 5.8 | 39.3 | 34.0 | 5.4 | 41.1 | 34.9 | 6.2 | 40.2 | 34.4 | 5.9 | ||||
|
Coalition
|
41.7 | 46.5 | -4.8 | 40.8 | 44.2 | -3.4 | 45.3 | 48.3 | -3.0 | 49.2 | 52.9 | -3.7 | ||||
|
Greens
|
7.6 | 7.0 | 0.6 | 12.1 | 10.9 | 1.2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | -1.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 0.1 | ||||
Maybe but those MPs whose seats were not declared were allowed to vote (Laming, Tollner, MacArthur, Laming) and both parties Turnbull and Nelson allowed them to vote so i don’t think Turnbull can dispute the ballot marky. But thats not to say he wont challenge down the track.
The rodent employed Max the Axe to axe dissidents in the public service. Kevin Rudd employed another Max the Axe to axe the rodent. Does JWH see any sort of justice / irony in this? And when is the bastard going to concede?
Howards got alzheimers,he’s forgotten there was an election.
JWH’s contempt is showing. Particularly galling when Maxine has gracious in victory.
Despite the fact there are a multitude of contributors on PB who have an intricate knowledge of political manouvering most seem to have missed the hidden agenda with the Libs leadership election process.
Turnbull was a shoe-in and he knew it. He doesn’t want it right now.
Nobody else looked like spiking his guns so he went on ABC Radio and created enough loud moderate “noise” to spike his own chances. Why did he cover so many fields of policy? He wanted to make sure he had off-sided enough Libs to NOT get elected YET. Even then he nearly got up. No contest on who got a vote from him, he would get up (LOL).
He’s one smart political animal with the selfish instincts that JWH would be proud of.
Cheers, NSMM.
Maxine has been …
Rumour is that Lexy is thinking of doing the same thing. That should make for interesting times because I can’t see their state leader willingly hand power to either. Hamilton-Smith is also the only one of the tree with a modicum of talent.
Might be good for the state though because the government has been sleep walking much of the time lately and seemingly going out of its way to p*ss people off when it isn’t.
Re the federal LIbs, I wouldn’t be writing off Cossie yet. He might be saying he isn’t interested but these buggers don’t lie straight in bed. It’ll be interesting to see if he pulls stumps once his super entitlement supposedly peaks in March.
While I can’t help thinking it’s good riddance to bad Ruddock, at the same time it seems that with so many of the senior ministers retreating to the back bench and others getting the flick at the hands of the electorate, Nelson is going to be pushing to put his shadow ministry together. For example, who’d want Immigration, Trade or Defence given the likely disclosures in those areas?
Jenny if nobody got into trouble before when they were investigated i hardly see where anything new is going to come from?
[Maybe but those MPs whose seats were not declared were allowed to vote (Laming, Tollner, MacArthur, Laming) and both parties Turnbull and Nelson allowed them to vote so i don’t think Turnbull can dispute the ballot marky. But thats not to say he wont challenge down the track.]
I like how “Parties” means Turnbull V Nelson.
The Liberals have completely given up fighting against Labor.
George Newhouse didn’t make it, but what about all the other Labor candidates who were ineligible?
ShowsOn Rudd’s not been sworn in yet and this is Howie’s last day as PM and you’re saying that in the midst of a leadership election Nelson and Turnbull had to start fighting against Labor, lets wait till Feb then you’ll see.
107 Mayoferal-Re Pyne and Lexie, State politics move. I’m told that State Labor hopes desperately that they DONT move for the reasons you mention. If Hamilton-Smith was joined by two Federal ministers in a unified team, Labor would be in trouble because they are doing a terrible job IMHO and if there was a credible alternative, it could be interesting.
I assume the ballot is secret in which case the real question is: Did Turnbiull vote for Turnbull or Nelson?
I’d say the electoral commission people have the day off: no counting today!
1) His name is Major General Michael Jeffrey
2) He served under Coalition and Labor governments from Menzies to Keating so knows it makes little difference to the ADF which party is in power. They both eulogise you as heroes when they need you to die for them, and don’t want to know you if, inconveniently, you return broken in body and/or spirit.
3) Only the wet behind the ear young’uns lust for war. Old campaigners like Jeffrey who’ve been there, done that and got the tee shirt know most wars aren’t worth fighting and most of us are more anti war than the marchers for peace (RSL blowhards often being the exception that proves the rule).
Has the Deputy Leader of the Nationals been elected yet?
Should I even care about Nelson’s shadow ministry?
Glen, one hopes the likes of Bruce Billson, Greg Hunt, perhaps Scott Morrison get promoted.
Warren Truss the person you listen to just before you go to bed, soon send you to sleep.
“Despite the fact there are a multitude of contributors on PB who have an intricate knowledge of political manouvering most seem to have missed the hidden agenda with the Libs leadership election process.”
NSMM, I don’t think Turnbull deliberately sabotaged his chances of being voted as leader of the opposition. If he really didn’t want the leadership now, then he could have just held off putting his hat into the ring, and therefore keep his powder dry for later.
By going on ABC radio and announcing that he would support gay marriage, saying sorry to the indigenous, and signing Kyoto, he put those beliefs on the public record. If he then took up the leadership later and had to voice different positions, such as opposing gay marriage, then this will come back to bite him. People will be right to ask why he is changing his mind and then questioning what he truly believes in… not a great start for an alternative PM.
I actually think that people give Turnbull too much credit. Sure, he is more than willing to play dirty when it comes to his own political survival (and we witnessed this with the bogus claims about George Newhouse being ineligible to run as the rival candidate in his seat), but he has also conducted a LOT of gaffes in what is only a 3 year career as an MP. He is sloppy. And things tend to backfire on him.
My reasonable guess is that he did make a genuine run for the leadership but botched it by overestimating the extent to which his colleagues wanted a sense of renewal.
I think Turnbull has got a long way to go before he could ever rival Rudd.
Point about Hamilton-Smith.
For the Liberals to get back in in South Australia, what needs to be done?
97 Jasmine Pierce Says:
Lowitja O’Donahue has the same problem as the late Kath Walker – both decided to adopt an Aboriginal name for political reasons and it backfired on them – you see conservative commentators continually pointing out that “Lowitja” sounds like a rare neurological disorder – while Kath Walker’s Aboriginal name is difficult to spell or remember easily – hence 99.9% of people still call her Kath Walker.
Jassie, Jassie, Jassie, some suggestions:
1. Learn how to spell people’s names (O’Donoghue, not O’Donahue)
2. Remember conservative commentators are sometimes, just sometimes, wrong, misguided, nasty and ‘political’
3. Don’t be snide (‘for political reasons’). It only diminishes you.
4. Don’t (Sociology 101) make ridiculous claims that you can’t prove (99.9%).
5. If you can’t say something intelligent, best to keep quiet.
Think what you will Noocat but the outcome was as good as he could have hoped for. Had to run to avoid the “Costello no stones” label and, he is more cunning than you appear to realise.
Personally, I couldn’t give a rat’s tossbag, I was commenting on the political manouvering rather than the outcome.
We just want to get Damien up in Solomon so there is a decent person representing the good people of Darwin.
113 Diogenes – Depends on what you class as “credible alternative”.
Downer is an incompetent. A dangerous incompetent, just ask the people of Timor, or those stranded on the docks when Israel attacked Lebanon last year. Pyne may be better, not sure. Frankly, his whining manner makes my skin crawl and I switch channels whenever he pops up on the idiot box.
But they may present the illusion of ‘credible’ sufficiently well enough to continue fooling most of the people. I was shocked at how well Lexy’s vote stood up in Mayo. I’d expected a much bigger swing against him than the state average given the childish way he carried on in the last weeks of the campaign, but it was significantly less. Sigh
Their biggest problem will be that Downer and Pyne will expect H-S to play third fiddle and I’d doubt he’d do that willingly.
I agree with Noocat.
Turnbull is a political novice, he bungled the pulp mill approval by making people think the final decision was his – not sheeting the blame on the Tas Govt.
He botched the Murray-Darling water plan by saying one thing and doing another – he lost the trust of the people he was negotiating with.
I am sure the Libs with dump Horatio Hornet for the Wally from Wentworth – its just that he will be even worse. 😛
121 HooHoo- Suggestions for Libs in SA to raise their profile and electability
1. Stable high profile team which gets media attention (theyve got nothing except Hamilton-Smith at the moment. Get Fawcett, Pyne, Downer.
2. Water is an absolute disaster. They need a plan that everyone knows about and agrees with.
3. Health is a disaster. The public hospital system is in terminal, palliative care mode. The numbers are APPALLING but Chapman is too stupid to know where to look to disclose them. The Marj is being used as an excuse to run sub-standard hospitals for ten years and therefore save money.
4. Transport-need I say more
5. Bullying and dummy spitting by Rann, Foley and minders of the media if they ever get bad publicity. The ban on Abrahamson should be highlighted more.
Glen @ 109 The difference between the previous inquiries and the ones being mooted now is that Labor controls the terms of reference, and in the AWB case at least, if not others, that is likely to make a big difference. If stuff comes out, it will place shadows in a difficult position – do you bag your predecessor or claim that black is white?
But I agree with MayoFeral that some of the dear departed, including Lord D, will be no great loss.
124 Mayoferal- I agree about Dolly’s competence but the electorate would feel chuffed to have someone who was foreign minister for so long. The same goes for Pyne. The media especially would like it and would give them a lot of airplay. I cant name a Lib shadow minister except Hamilton-Smith and Chapman who I’ve seen in the media in a year.
I also cannot understand how Downer got such a small swing against him. I thought Mayo voters were well enough off to vote on the “moral” issues like AWB, Haneef etc and I thought he’d get caned.
Apres:
Kath Walker at least *did* change her name for political reasons per her Wikipedia article:
“In 1988 she adopted her traditional name Oodgeroo (meaning “paperbark tree”) and returned her MBE in protest and to make a political statement at the condition of her people in the year of Australia’s Bicentenary celebrations”
HooHoo said:
Well for a start they need more than just H-S. ATM, he’s a one man band. The former leader and deputy were going to set the world on fire but instead seem to have fallen off its edge, and the others – I assume there are others – are are even less visible.
Mayo Feral,
I couldn’t give a toss what his “real” name is, to me he is General-General Jeffery Jefferies: conservative stooge first-class and below-par replacement for the rape denier Hollingworth.
Be gone with him.
After the 2004 debacle, I resolved to not read or watch any news for the three years between the elections. I felt that there was nothing that the liberal government could say to me that would take away from the lies I had been told for the previous years, and the ones to come. It turns out that all of the lies I knew to be so, were identified as such during this election campaign of over a year.
The absolute drivel that was spewed forth from the young liberals both in 2004 and 2007 was breathtaking in its ignorance and selfishness, but finally I suspect that their single asset (constant and never-ending spam) is looking to have seen its day. This time, the deafening sounds of the ignorant trolls were drowned out by reason and logic, and for that I am forever thankful. We have turned a page in our history in Australia, and I shed not a single tear for thing the Australian public has rejected. The howard years will be remembered as the decade of hate, when it became a regular political tactic to identify a defenseless minority and demonize them to appeal to the ignorant, and provide just enough silver to satisfy the rest. From opposition, and beholden to the religious right-wing, this tactic will forever consign them to minor party status. The new ALP looks to be a very good government, with ideals and principals run by a man that is a diplomat of the highest order, and a work ethic that has no compare.
But I am not a junkie, feeding upon forums to satisfy my own addiction, and so have decided to sign-off as a regular contributor to political forums. If (and I suspect when) the DD comes along, I expect there will be a greater contribution.
Thanks to JJ for making this entire site possible, and for the contributors of reason that didn’t lose faith. It is the rise of the 5th estate that we are witnessing, and the voices of the informed will become even harder to silence in the future.
The thread is here…
http://ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=2462
And thanks, of course, to William, for making the impact that this site actually made.
129 Jasmine
Two points. Wikipedia is a doubtful source of wisdom. Second, all choices are ‘political’, as is your choice to address this topic.
HooHoo
“For the Liberals to get back in South Australia, what needs to be done?”
Well, maybe they could paint themselves green and cut off their horns. But the first thing to do would be to laugh at Dolly Downer – along with the rest of the country. (Sorry, just trying to be helpful).
Importantly, Hamilton-Smith and Chapman must do a Rudd and bring forth appealing policy. They can’t just whinge.
Should have said…
And thanks, of course, to William, for making possible the impact that this site actually made.
I watched the budget this year, and Hamilton-Smith was still bringing up events that happened 20 years ago. (ie. State Bank)
Nobody else is to be put on an AWA. Think it’s about time they started handing out some big fines to employers who wish to continue the ruse.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/employers-warned-over-awas/2007/12/02/1196530464623.html
The Liberal vote in WA held up because they were voting for Howard and his superior economic management. With Howard off the scene that personal factor won’t be there in 2010. A Liberal party led by Abbott or Turnbull definitely would not get the same support in WA. If Bishop is the leader the Liberal vote might increase in WA (parochial vote, not merit) but would completely collapse everywhere else.
The WA state election is due February 2009. The Liberal party might with a bit of luck have sorted out who their leader will be by then. The next election will be fought on new electorates based on one vote, one value which will favour Labor.
The Libs and Nats will be squabbling over country seats. The Nats have declared they will not go into coalition with the Libs again.
State Labor have shown themselves to be resposible economic managers, maintaining a budget surplus.
Labor with Green preferences will win in 2010.
That should be will win in 2009 State election
steve,
I’m on an AWA and am very happy with it, just like everybody I know employed on an AWA. Do you actually know anybody on an AWA?
#142
“I’m on an AWA and am very happy with it, just like everybody I know employed on an AWA. Do you actually know anybody on an AWA?’
Yes.
Several.
None of them happy in the slightest.
And if you were on their AWAs you wouldn’t be happy either.
Re 87,
Centre Says:
Now Beazely in this context is a very good idea 🙂 🙂 We shall have to wait and see if you are right Centre 🙂
Re 89,
Albert F Says:
ACT is in October 2008 (only elections next year). WA isn’t next year, I believe it is 2009 although I do not know what month.
fred @ 143 Says: “And if you were on their AWAs you wouldn’t be happy either.”
Simply classic!!
John
Well good for you – you like your AWA. Shame the previous govt did not release the statistics to show how many happy campers like you exist.
No more hiding stats now. 🙂
117 “Has the Deputy Leader of the Nationals been elected yet?”
WHO CARES?
They’ll announce the deputy Nationals leader just as soon as they’ve removed the dags from his tail and given him a good sheep-dip.
Isn’t there a clause in AWA’s that you cannot discuss your pay/conditions with others?