What is to be done

What I don’t know about the Liberal Party could fill a warehouse, but most of the prescriptions outlined by Michael Kroger on Sky News on Tuesday accord with my prejudices:

The organisational wings around the country need to be reformed immediately, particularly in relation to the branch structure and preselections. There’s a lot of things that can be done, very quickly. The party is in a terrible electoral position, but it can very quickly put itself into a fantastic position. This is not a five or ten year repair job. You could actually fix all the organisational and structural problems in the Liberal Party within 12 months if you had the will to do it, and make whoever the incoming leader is in a fantastic position to fight the next federal election in three years’ time. But what tends to happens is people retreat to their corners, they want to protect their own power bases and nothing happens. It requires some strong decision-making from the senior people to fix this thing, they can fix it in 12 months … The branch structure is 60 years old and even though the branch members still do a fantastic job, it’s the structure, not the branch members, it’s the structure which is drowning us. We’ve got probably 500 people in the Victorian Liberal Party whose job is as honorary auditor … There need to be branch amalgamations, we need to base the party around state or federal electorates, you need to broaden the base of people voting in preselections, you need to have perhaps a senior committee of senior party people who have the final say over preselections to rubber stamp the selections, you’ve got to stop the petty branch stacking, we should amalgamate with the National Party, we should give the federal party some more power a little like the ALP does, we should make it a federalist party and not just individual states, we need to totally revamp the fundraising within the organisation and we need to give the federal executive some power … you just can’t have situations where five or 10 or 20 people can stack a few branches and take over a safe Liberal Party seat and preselect a C-grade candidate and be happy with that. I pay credit to the Labor Party for some of the candidates they preselected, I don’t like their politics, but the fact is in various places they strong-armed some tired old members out, put some new people in who may or may not succeed but on the face of it some of them have got very good credentials for parliament. That’s the way you have to operate in politics. To leave these things to the branch-stackers is a recipe for disaster.

Malcolm Turnbull – wealthy, assertive, independently powerful – struck me as being just the man for the job outlined by Kroger. Perhaps the party room knows better. Or perhaps, to use Kroger’s formulation, they have signalled an intention to retreat to their corners and protect their own power bases, and nothing will happen.

Recommended reading: Alister Drysdale of the Business Spectator reports that both parties’ internal polling showed a late Coalition recovery that was stopped dead in its tracks by the Lindsay pamphlet disgrace. It’s also argued that the fake Jeff Kennett letter regarding proposed funding cuts to the states had the same impact during the last week of the 1996 campaign. I personally do not imagine that either incident was single-handedly decisive, but this is not the first report to emerge of a sharp shift in party tracking polling following Jackie Kelly’s infamous “Chaser-style prank” interview of last Wednesday. There’s also a very intriguing article on the Liberal Party’s late-term leadership ructions from Pamela Williams in today’s Financial Review (subscriber only unfortunately).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,042 comments on “What is to be done”

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  2. BN @ 98, you should take a closer look at the WA Liberals at a local level: very disappointing. By comparison, they make a quite inept Labor State Government appear almost passable. Aside from the state party, taken as a whole, the federal Lib contingent is as lacklustre as could be. But I have an alarming thought: they could be typical of Liberals everywhere.

  4. I wonder if it makes a difference to the public what flavour of government is in power during economic good times? So long as you don’t do something really silly many of the voters simply ‘sleep-walk’ and assume you have the credit for the good times.

    Mr Howard handled the issues of Workchoices and Iraq very poorly and woke up the sleep-walkers. If he had introduced Workchoices after a good deal of public and parliamentary discussion and then pushed it through much of the bite would have been removed. Sell it then make it mandatory. Howard could have also morphed the combat role to a training role in Iraq as soon as it became apparent the issue was on the nose and, thus kept the faith with GWB.

    It wasn’t so much the issues but how and when they were handled. This is why he lost not to mention Rudd stealing all the good issues as soon as he was made leader of the opposition. Howard’s political acumen wasn’t up to scratch, laziness and over-confidence.

    I don’t like Workchoices at all but I reckon Howard could have sold it if he was willing to bother – the public seemed to always listen to him and give him the benefit whenever he made the effort.

    One part of that failure is due to the low standard of people he kept around him and their easy compliance. How all these ministers in a long term government got beaten in their respective debates is beyond me.

    Nelson clearly ties himself to the past with Workchoices and not-sorry and this really helps Labor by clearly showing the divide between the two parties. Whilst it continues it will entrench public opinion and push Rudd Labor further out in front. The Liberal party really needs to take all these things on-board to show that they ‘get it’ and have changed and now once more worthy.

    If the economy sticks together for another 3 years then Labor could end up occupying the top job for many many years thereafter.

  5. Julie Bishop sets the Liberal Party’s modus operandi for their stint in Opposition… reactive politics.
    __________________________________________________
    Julie Bishop has no opinion on ‘sorry’ issue
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22847180-29277,00.html

    Ms Bishop declined to offer a view on the issue today.

    “It’s now up to the new government to take a position on this and then we will respond accordingly,” she told ABC Radio.
    __________________________________________________

    I have to say… that’s a very poor start. They need to know the other side’s position before they can have one? Weak.

  6. Cross-post from the McEwan discussion:

    I’ve been doing some further numbers…

    * Ordinary (polling booth) results in McEwan are about 3500 below what might be expected based on the 2004 results, adjusted for the 9% increase in enrollment in McEwan from 2004. Consequently, the “3000 missing votes” may yet turn up.

    * Based on 2004 returns, there are likely to be approximately 4000 absentee, 1500 pre-poll and 1000 postals yet to be counted, or a little over.

    * If remaining absentee, pre-poll and postal returns remain consistent with trends to date this results in around 3115 extra votes to the ALP and 2385 to the Liberal Party. This would be enough for the ALP to win the seat by a bit over 200 votes.

    Caveats:

    * The current percentage of absentees going to the ALP (61%) is dramatically higher than 2004 (44%) yet postals and prepoll are more consistent with 2004 (2004 – 39% pre-poll, 39% postal to ALP; 2007 – 45% prepoll, 40% postal to ALP). This suggests that there might be some weirdness in the early absentee counting. If the 61% absentee ALP vote doesn’t hold up then the Liberal party looks pretty safe.

    * We’ve been lead to believe that if these 3000 mystery votes ever appear they’re likely to favor the ALP. Although it’s possible that they’re still out there I personally won’t be holding my breath.

    Conclusion: the ALP remains a real chance here, but given the above uncertainties my money is on the Liberal Party retaining the seat by a nose.

  7. Nelson married thrice!!
    OMG hahahhhh what is wrong with him.
    What is his relegion? Certainly not Christian, they don’t allow/endorse divorce 🙁
    (for which I don’t agree)
    Liberals grilled Latham for his second marriage. Look at their leader Nelson now.
    What a bad substitude! I bet Nelson won’t last long.

  8. Lose the election please, I never liked your posts until you revealed that you were one of us working undercover. Now that we have indeed lost the election, you change sides? You sir are a turncoat, a rat in the ranks.

  10. Thinking about Rudy Guiliani’s efforts to get the Republican nomination in the U.S – he was recently described by a fellow conservative as the “thrice married, cross-dressing, gun-suppressing abortionist from New York.”
    Not great credential for appealing to your base – wonder if Nelson’s status as the “thrice married former ALP member” might hurt him with the Hillsong gang and others.

  11. William , you say you do not know alot about the Liberal Party

    Well it is summed up by a phrase EVERY wet & dry Liberal ever includes when describing what the Liberal Party stands for :

    ‘individual choice’

    You are on your own in a ‘market’ economy and the ‘best’ will earn the most.
    Schools, Hospitals , private health insurance , indeed ‘all services’ belong in a
    ‘market economy’ where those who have earned the most benefit

    Labor’s values of equity of opportunity , ‘fair go’ and compassion support are in conflict with the above Liberal values.

    Work choices IS CONSISTENT therefore with Liberal values

  12. ESJ

    If you’re still around, you noted previously that many unions have seen a big drop in membership since the introduction of workchoices (or the introduction of the ALPs policy response). Have you some data to back this?

    Ta.

  13. Ron @ 111 – so there is a philosophical base for the Liberal Party after all- The law of the jungle – let the strong survive and the weak make their own arrangements.

    But wait – what about the huge payments to pay the cost of starting and maintaining private schools, drought relief and tax breaks for farmers. So where is the consistency with the philosophical base there? Law of the jungle for some, molly-coddling for others. I really would like to ID that immutable inner core of the Liberal Party, but it seems awfully elusive so far.

  14. William reported on the Business Spectator which said: It’s also argued that the fake Jeff Kennett letter regarding proposed funding cuts to the states had the same impact during the last week of the 1996 campaign.

    This is tommy-rot. 1996 was the best example ever of the polls being stuck in a rut and not moving one inch from 1 year before the election until right up to the election itself. There is not the slightest public polling evidence that Keating was making some sort of comeback.

    Could be true in 2007…. definitely NOT true in 1996.

  16. 115 Nothing to see here situation normal. The Galaxy poll is looking better this week than last week. It’s like a good port just improves with age.

  17. Who wants to predict what the final 2PP will be ??

    Sat night it was 53.41% …presently 52.95% ( & has fallen hourly since Sat nite)

    is Galaxy 52 to 48 going to be proved right

    I guess 52.5% but I wish I knew WHERE in the aec site you can find “National”
    figures for no. of pre polls & postals RECEIVED by the aec ??

    the aec only give the “National” pre polls & postals counted. We need both stats

    (then we’d know “National” how many remain uncounted…I can only find it per seat

  18. Julie Bishop on saying Sorry…
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22847180-29277,00.html
    “It’s now up to the new government to take a position on this and then we will respond accordingly,” she told ABC Radio.

    Her leader said the party won’t say sorry.
    Now the deputy says something else (like, we’ll wait to see if we can engineer some political mileage for ourselves after Labor reveals its position).

    So which is it guys? The Howard line or the Machiavellian line?

    Not a good start for the new team

  19. The Lindsay pamphlet thing was a demonstrable mistake that everyone would consider a terrible thing to try and do. But the Liberal Party doesn’t have a mortgage on idiocy.

  21. It’s not up to the Coalition to say sorry NOW that they are in opposition. Certainly the political parties don’t hold any responsibility for the stolen generation; it is the Australian Government which holds responsibility.

  23. I think Labor will scrape in in Bowman, comparing figures to ’04 and they haven’t started counting provisionals yet.

  25. If they could pull Turnbull back a tad from the “left” of the Liberals he’d do excellent. Nelson is going to take them under, deep under. I’m a member and I’m absolutely disgusted at the choice.

  26. [Ron Brown, check out latest Bowman count, hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.]

    Labor’s lead has increased by 90 votes since this morning.

  27. Corangamite has now been removed from the ‘close’ seat count. Still yet to start counting absentees or provisionals.

  28. 120 Certainly not. I have been very critical of Galaxy but as Ron Brown pointed out at 117 the National figures have been falling steadily since Saturday night, as the postal votes due to incumbants having more staff etc and better resources to sure up votes makes Galaxy look better, much as I dislike to admit it.

    News on the Queensland stalemate is that the Libs are having a meeting on Monday to resolve the Leadership issue. Could be a long meeting.

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/deadlock-must-be-broken-flegg/2007/11/30/1196037126505.html

  29. Corangamite – the absentee votes only favoured McArthur 52.48:47.52 in 2004.

    His prepoll 2PP is down from 59.83 in 2004 to 55.06 this time so far, and his postal 2PP is down from 61.86 to 56.27. If that pattern holds up the absentee votes may well favour Labor.

  30. Yo Ho Ho,

    Yes go to http://www.airc.gov.au and look at the registered organisation files. Pick the name of any union and find anyone that has reported its 2006-2007 financial results and you will see there has been a decline on average of about 10%.

  33. http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/sorry-issue-splits-libs/2007/11/30/1196037125789.html

    “Today, Dr Nelson said he had cried while reading about the plight of Aboriginal Australians in the past, but Australians should not be sorry about it.”

    Any bets on how long this contradiction might go on? Could go one of two ways – he’ll do a Blainey and distance himself from the left and start to go loopy on a range of things, or do what he feels is morally correct.

    Given his history, I’d be inclined to think the former.

  35. I suspect the ALP will be happy with the role the “celebrity candidates” played. Helped give the illusion of change for the party and helpfully most of them,

    Maccas Guy
    SAS Guy
    Army Guy 1 ( La Trobe)
    Glamour Girl
    Thoughtful Girl

    just missed out. Maxine and Army Guy 2 wont be able to cause too much disruption ( a la Cheryl) on their own.

  43. LTEP Maccas Guy is a celebrity in Townsville. Glamour Girl is Cornes in Boothby. Belinda is just a Central Coast local fighting for her community.

    Pancho always the loyalist, admirable. Like the English generals in the chateaus I am certain your field of Flanders efforts are admired by high command.

  44. ESJ you seem to be intent on looking for inconsequential victories where ever you can find them. This is all peripheral to the main game, which is of course that LABOR ARE BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  45. ESJ – my supervisor is os at the moment chairing a history conference. Will have to check with him if my efforts are admired on his return. 🙂 How’s yr blog going?

  47. The ALP factional system is generally misunderstood, invariably misrepresented in the media and often did the Party no favours when internal brawling hit the news. The system was developed to organise and give official voice to the various philosophical positions that inhabit the Labor party. They also served to ensure that leadership decisions were based on advice received from across the Party and not just on the Leader’s own views/biases/perceptions. This democratic approach to decision-making contrasts with the Liberal party where the Leader is supreme and his (it’s always a he) word is law. This is a weakness for the Libs in that the leader’s power is hard to assail and when the leader pursues an unwise course the whole machine follows him into oblivion (witness their current position). With Mr Rudd muzzling the factions and centralising power in himself, is the ALP now in danger of committing the same folly as the Libs??

  48. Actually I think its a real shame that all of them will go down Gary. If they had got up it would have been a significant bloc which could have led to opening up and democratisation in the ALP.

    Yes the Labcest candidates got up – mores the pity!

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