The day after

A more lucid analysis will have to wait for tomorrow. For the moment I can only offer some swing breakdowns: 5.6 per cent in Sydney, 5.5 per cent in the rest of New South Wales; 5.4 per cent in Melbourne, 4.7 per cent in the rest of Victoria; 7.8 per cent in Brisbane, 8.5 per cent in the rest of Queensland; 1.4 per cent in Perth, 4.1 per cent in the rest of WA; 5.8 per cent in Adelaide, 9.2 per cent in the rest of SA (Mayo, Barker and Grey); 2.5 per cent in Tasmania; 1.7 per cent in ACT; 2.8 per cent in NT.

I think I can also manage an overview for the Senate, which has produced a surprisingly strong result for the Coalition and a number of disappointments for the Greens. Kerry Nettle is gone in NSW, with three seats each for Labor and the Coalition. It’s looking like the same result in Victoria, although Greens candidate Richard di Natale might yet take the final seat from the third Liberal candidate Scott Ryan. The Greens also seem to be falling short in Queensland, their candidate 2.4 per cent behind Labor’s third for the final seat. Better news for the Greens from Western Australia, which turned in its expected result of three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens, and South Australia, where their candidate looks likely to just keep ahead of Labor at the second last exclusion and win the final seat on their preferences. Tasmania is a clear three for Labor, two for Coalition and one for Greens, and Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory split one Labor and one (Country) Liberal as normal.

Assuming the Greens don’t get up in Victoria, and unless my late night/early morning arithmetic leads me astray, that points to 18 seats out of 40 for both Labor and the Coalition, three for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. Combined with ongoing Senators, that means 37 for the Coalition (one short of a blocking majority) and 32 for Labor, with the balance consisting of five for the Greens, one Family First and one Nick Xenophon. The Greens will thus not hold the balance of power in their own right, with the Coalition being able to stitch together a blocking majority with Fielding or Xenophon or an absolute majority with them both. Interesting times ahead.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,248 comments on “The day after”

Comments Page 22 of 25
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  1. wpc – do I have any other info on whether freezing canetoads is or isn’t a worthy definition of socialism? Now I know you’re having a lend of me.

  2. Incidentally, at the Mayo (commiseration) party last night we were asked to take down the corflutes and keep them safe, as it was highly likely that there would be a by-election in the seat before long.

    Is it possible for Mary to add to the 7% swing a further 6% (non-encumbency) swing then and therefore make it a Labor seat?

    One can only hope.

  4. Actually, I’ve just remembered that every election until this one, they always asked “Have you already voted?” (or something) before handing over the ballot papers. Not this time.

  5. I know this doesnt mean anything statistically but the online poll in SA on next Lib leader is:

    Malcolm Turnbull 33%, Brendan Nelson 9%, Julie Bishop 10%, Joe Hockey 16%, Alexander Downer 11%, Christopher Pyne 11%, Tony Abbott 6%

    Surprised to see Hockey second.

  6. Steven Kaye, WC doesn’t explain why the Libs are now out of power everywhere. They have moved so far right and become so mean-spirited, that a lot of their natural support base has now rejected them. I saw a lot of this while handing out HTV’s yesterday.

  7. I just want to go on the reccord as being in the majority when i say I love union dominated governments and wall-to-wall labor.

    I also want to say that John Howard was a good Liberal party leader, but has always struggled to get a following across a broad enough section of the Australian community to make him a good leader of Australia.

    I will say that Howard was a good ‘manager’ of this country in many ways, understanding not manager is perfect. However, managers make the right decisions, leaders make decisions that are right.

  8. 1051. Pancho. LOL Sorry, I thought you were referring to the legality of it. But, to me, having to kill cane toads by freezing them is a wonderful analogy of socialism 🙂

  9. Long suffering Labor voter in Sturt. Come on Mia – so close! Pork barreling is alive and well. Pyne rocks up to a well to do Soccer club in Sturt during the election, after training we gather around and he promises $1 million for the club to build another club room (already have 2)! He said he worked his party hard to get the nod for the $ (yer sure he did). A master stoke – it may have got him enough votes to cross the line. Ironic given a cent won’t be provided now the nasty slimy rodent and his cronies have rightly been chucked out.

  11. 1049 Glen
    They should have a good think about it now. No knee jerk replacement but maybe a caretaker leader while they work out where to go next.
    In that situation, maybe Nelson as the minder while they position their re-election strategy over the next 6-12 months. They need to get out to the electorate and listen this time to help formulate their future directions, not surround themselves with sychophants and yes men. This is the time to be candid.

  15. RIP Matt Price. That is a really sad pieceo f news, although not entirely unexpected.

    In other, happier, news, Malcolm Turnbull is set to announce he’ll be seeking the leadership of the Liberal Party!

  16. Glen 873
    You could say the same thing about other Liberals who got blown away. There is nothing special about Keenan, although Howard did fancy him.

    There were promises to spend money on local roads but I thought every marginal got those.

    So I still don’t understand why when there were so many things going against him he was hardly touched.

  17. [If the next Liberal Leader is smart he’ll court the Greens to try to get them to split their preferences 50/50. That could make a big difference in a lot of the marginals in 2010/2011.]

    If the Greens are stupid enough to agree to this it will be their equivalent of the GST for the Democrats. They will certainly sacrifice my support.

  18. Nelson can get agro so he can deal with himself in Parliament and i like the bloke but whenever he talks for longer than 3mins zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

    Brendan Nelson is the favourite but Julie Bishop will probably have 11 votes from WA and the Senators from WA stitched up and she could be the outsider to Malcolm and Brendan.

    If Julie isn’t the leader she’ll be deputy i think.

    Nelson could be good he’s got experience but Malcolm is probably more liked by the electorate.

  23. Haiku: To Dennis Shamahan

    In rat’s nest you groped —
    now Rudd’s new day dawns, expect
    zero sympathy

    Homage to Tabitha

    Rodent knows defeat
    Even lost his seat

    Smirk wimped out
    Hockey far too stout

    Who’s left standing?
    (Abbott notwithstanding)

    Sorry set of losers
    Toffs, airheads, bruisers

    Expect decomposition
    Or permanent opposition

  25. rossco well he holds it by what 1.2% without postals in so it could be even more marginal or back out to 2% still it makes it easier for Keenan to win in 2010.

    Tinely should of run in Hasluck, Jackson is a reject.

  26. Just looked up the results in my Wilberforce booth in Greenway where I handed out Labor HTVs

    Markus got 65% of the 2PP.

    You know, for some unknown reason, I’m not that unhappy about it! LOL 😀

  30. 1068 Glen.
    I hear you about Nelson but that’s exactly my point. Caretaker now and then Booshka, new person takes over and “you” have”re-vitalised ” the party.
    Oh well, it’s up to you guys on the ground in the party because it’s 10- 15 years in the wilderness otherwise.
    Our benches are now oozing with fresh new talent and ready to go.
    It’s gunna be frantic.

  31. Glen, Nelson will never hear the end of SuperHornet in the new parliament, and rightly so. Why not Abbott for a while to soak up the punishment; nobody wants him anyway, so no damage done.

    BTW commiserations Glen – not for the election loss that both the country and the Libs needed, but for the loss of Mal Brough which did surprise me, when a drone like Michael Johnson can hang on so easily.

  35. Nelson will never be PM but might be a good caretaker Leader of the Opps until they reorganise. However who ever they pick, if it’s an ex-Minister they will have baggage. Nelson with his Super Hornets or Turnbull with his Rain Machine.

  38. Update on cliffhangers:

    McEwen: ALP up by 462

    Herbert: ALP up by 460

    Dickson: ALP up by 389

    La Trobe: ALP up by 378

    Bowman: ALP up by 223

    Swan: ALP up by 185

    Macarthur: Libs up by 320

    Cowper: Nats up by 687

    Sturt removed from close seats page. I think Pyne will win.

    Bugger it.

  43. Sunday November 25, 03:51 PM
    More heavy rainfall forecast for Qld

    Severe thunderstorms with hailstones big enough to damage cars are forecast to hit parts of southern Queensland in the next few hours.
    .
    .
    OMG the Labor Party really can make it rain.

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