A more lucid analysis will have to wait for tomorrow. For the moment I can only offer some swing breakdowns: 5.6 per cent in Sydney, 5.5 per cent in the rest of New South Wales; 5.4 per cent in Melbourne, 4.7 per cent in the rest of Victoria; 7.8 per cent in Brisbane, 8.5 per cent in the rest of Queensland; 1.4 per cent in Perth, 4.1 per cent in the rest of WA; 5.8 per cent in Adelaide, 9.2 per cent in the rest of SA (Mayo, Barker and Grey); 2.5 per cent in Tasmania; 1.7 per cent in ACT; 2.8 per cent in NT.
I think I can also manage an overview for the Senate, which has produced a surprisingly strong result for the Coalition and a number of disappointments for the Greens. Kerry Nettle is gone in NSW, with three seats each for Labor and the Coalition. It’s looking like the same result in Victoria, although Greens candidate Richard di Natale might yet take the final seat from the third Liberal candidate Scott Ryan. The Greens also seem to be falling short in Queensland, their candidate 2.4 per cent behind Labor’s third for the final seat. Better news for the Greens from Western Australia, which turned in its expected result of three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens, and South Australia, where their candidate looks likely to just keep ahead of Labor at the second last exclusion and win the final seat on their preferences. Tasmania is a clear three for Labor, two for Coalition and one for Greens, and Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory split one Labor and one (Country) Liberal as normal.
Assuming the Greens don’t get up in Victoria, and unless my late night/early morning arithmetic leads me astray, that points to 18 seats out of 40 for both Labor and the Coalition, three for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. Combined with ongoing Senators, that means 37 for the Coalition (one short of a blocking majority) and 32 for Labor, with the balance consisting of five for the Greens, one Family First and one Nick Xenophon. The Greens will thus not hold the balance of power in their own right, with the Coalition being able to stitch together a blocking majority with Fielding or Xenophon or an absolute majority with them both. Interesting times ahead.
I hope Dutton squeaks in on postals and absentees???
Vey sad to hear about Matt, I think he would have loved to see the contest for the libs leadership
Smart move by Costello, not for him the hard yards of a Kim Beazley, or a Hewson after 93.
Better not be the bridesmaid oppostion leader as well as the bridesmaid Treasurere
I would expect lead changes in some seat once postals and absentess are counted- not much in prepolls for either party at the moment.
I wonder what ALP having a bigger lead in polling early on would do to postals, abscentees and prepolls?
SirEggo, Dawson or Flynn? Dawson 4.5k votes up 2pp, it’s gone. Flynn 2k votes up 2PP, and no incumbent. For the 2/3 others in doubt, being in front is pretty good at this stage. Interesting that ABC but not AEC have called Dickson.
DOUBLE DISSOLUTION WITHIN 6 MONTHS – or Rudd looks even more impotent.
Very sad news about Matt Price.
A great journo. And a great blogger.
Far too young.
RIP
George at 1086: Maxine has a swing of nearly 6%, and only needed a shade over 4%, so with only some 20% left to count, it doesn’t look tlike he rodent has a hope in Hades (which is where he is going, politically speaking!)
There won’t be a DD. We’ve been over this before. The Libs don’t have the numbers to block changes to Work Choices and in any case no new Leader of the Opps is going to want to take on Rudd in his honeymoon period.
Looks like it’s not enough to be a failed Federal Rep. Now the libs want losers to line up for a state seat. With the member for Kwana hating the council amalgamations so much that he wants to be the Mayor of the new Sunshine Coast supercouncil, Steve Dixon might get elbowed out of the way to make room for an unwanted has been like Brough.
Liberal Mal Brough has declined to comment on his political future including a suggestion that he move into state politics.
Liberal frontbencher Joe Hockey has called for Mr Brough to be parachuted into the leadership of the Queensland Liberals.
Mr Brough surprisingly lost his Brisbane seat of Longman, which he has held since 1996, at last night’s Labor Rudd-slide.
A spokeswoman said Mr Brough would not be making any comments on his political future today or tomorrow.
“That’s it. It’s all over,” she said.
“He made some comments last night.”
The Queensland Liberals have floundered under current leader Dr Bruce Flegg, who many see as an electoral liability.
Mr Hockey told the Seven Network it was time to change the leadership in Queensland.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/brough-no-comment-on-shift-to-state-politics/2007/11/25/1195947545599.html
1108
or on workchoices
Kirribilli Removals @ 1107, thanks for that.
Oh dear. Didn’t Insiders this moring report that Matt Price was doing well? It’s so sad. He was such a great journalist and interesting writer.
Rudd’s first press conference and he’s up and running, (see it on this page, video down on left side of page):
http://www.abc.net.au/news/
Straight talking and businesslike, and it looks like he’s been doing it for years. I really like his confidence and incisive style, it’s very refreshing after years of Howard squirming around and hiding behind his own legend.
wysiwyg 1104
You misunderstood. I was talking about the cliffhanger seats I listed with the current margins.
Dawson and Flynn are long gone.
Kirribilli Removals 1107
How’s the job going? Or is Hyancinth chained herself inside and refuses to move? LOL
Kirribilli I thought he sounded like he needed a nap.
Cowper is coming strongly back to ALP with 4 polling places left to count Libs should hang on- just
“Albert Ross Says:
November 25th, 2007 at 2:20 pm
Trevor Khan,
So you’re a bunch of Political Change as well Climate Change deniers?”
Mate, bit deep for me. Give me a little more detail and I might be able to respond.
As for Climate Change deniers, my speech in the Upper House recently makes quite plain where I stand on the science….the issue for me is in the solutions.
Trev
K Jin,
Matt Price is just the sort of journo that Cassidy would like and admire. Cassidy is a bit further “to the left” than Matt, but they actually both have a great sense of humour if you follow their work over a period of time.
My guess is that Cassidy knew that Matt was very crook, but didn’t know he had died, and wanted to give him a “heads up, thinking of you, mate” at the end of the program.
RIP Matt
Glen
Dutton needs about 60% of the remaining votes to win. I don’t think the 13 postal votes will help him.
I think he is toast. 🙂
Greetings fellow psephoids. After a very long night I have slept most of today. I am hoarse, sunburnt and footsore, but much delighted at the events of yesterday. My candidate got a very handsome majority, with the working-class booths delivering large swings. Yes, it was all about WorkChoices.
My immediate post-election wrap-up is here:
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/guide8.shtml
More will follow.
A preliminary observation is that the voters didn’t care one bit that Labor candidates were union officials, party hacks or both. Mike Symon in Deakin, Yvette D’Ath in Petrie, Craig Thomson in Dobell, the much-maligned Belinda Neale in Robertson, Darren Cheeseperson in Corangamite, Jason Young in Bowman, the SDA Three in South Australia, all did very well.
I will be very disappointed if Kim Wilkie loses in Swan. A top bloke.
Bill Weller, well done on fighting the good fight all this year, but I did warn you that your vote wouldn’t increase. Don’t blame the unions – if you want union backing you should join the ALP.
Simon Jackman over at the Bulletin’s election website has an article up about Nielsen, and concludes that there is “reasonably strong evidence of some bias in the Nielsen estimates.”
RIP Matt Price. Very sad news 🙁
oh dear, i seem to keep referring to the libs as the ‘government’. A matter of habit after 11 years.
Trevor Khan Says:
“As for Climate Change deniers, my speech in the Upper House recently makes quite plain where I stand on the science”
Trevor, do you have link to that?
BBD, It will come down to the greens preferences.- I can’t see many of them going to the Nats – the green vote in that area is pretty left.
1114
SirEggo
Kevin Rudd talked to Mr Rodent, and said he fully understood that Mrs Rodent was heavily sedated, and they could take their time moving out. But I guess Mr Rudd will not tolerate them squatting beyond a seemly period of time!
1115
Lose the election please
He looked a hell of a lot better than I did earlier today!
Wilkie ahead by 85votes with Polling Places Returned: 40 of 42.
Looks like the Tories could win Swan yippie!
Does anyone have a link of an updated/new pendulum or anything like that? I would like to see the new margins and that.
Have to say Matt Prices’ death has taken the fun out of this day.
What a sh*tty world it is sometimes.
Looks like its going to be turnbull or Hockey.
Glen: Bennelong, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Page, Parramatta and Robertson (NSW), Corangamite, Deakin, La Trobe and McEwen (Vic), Blair, Bonner, Bowman, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Herbert, Leichhardt, Longman, Moreton and Petrie (Qld), Hasluck (WA), Kingston, Makin and Wakefield (SA), Bass and Braddon (Tas), Solomon (NT). Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie! Yippie!
1129 [Does anyone have a link of an updated/new pendulum or anything like that? I would like to see the new margins and that.]
Fair crack of the whip, the votes haven’t been counted yet. Patience or do your own with what we know.
Adam some of those seats are not confirmed yet so your yippies like mine are premature!
Cowper looks like staying with the Nats. I don’t see the ALP overturning a 687 vote lead on postals and pre-polls.
Swan doesn’t look great, either, although the pre-polls have been counted there.
The rest of the marginals look OK for Labor, although Bowman seems to be getting tighter. Can’t believe Laming may hold on there…
Hey Adam @ 1132, can you please show some enthusiasm with your post? 😉
So what’s everyone’s thoughts on the senate?
Yeah, Cowper looks unlikely
Glen, looks like the Bribie Island nuclear power plant idea of your tory mates was a good idea. Worked about as well as everything else they dreamt up in the past 12 years.
Macarthur is only 320 apart on 2pp and I don’t think it had – any counting today – it could be another one
paul k 1025
[if it’s an ex-Minister they will have baggage. Nelson with his Super Hornets ]
And don’t forget his ‘intelligent design’ stand in his previous portfolio. The bloke is a complete idiot!
I am very saddened to hear about Matt Price. He was a fair and balanced political commentator with a great sense of humour. RIP Matt.
1135
Swing Lowe
Pity about Cowper, it was always going to be an outside chance, but I did have a $100 of Sportingbet’s money it at very tasty odds!
[Adam some of those seats are not confirmed yet so your yippies like mine are premature!]
Have you conceded the election to Labor yet?
Glen,
Now that the conservatives are dead in the water Federally what do you think the chances are that the Libs will take back the state government in WA next year? Got to get back in somewhere.
Glen,
You have a bad case of premature eyipulation.
Oh, BTW, is OK to be show some hubris yet?
Finally awake after the great event. Amazing how a good session in the pool neutralises last night’s coalition of beers, ALP-left reds, and assortment of minor party concoctions of less than 1%!
Adz, ALP 32, Coalition 37, Greens 5 X 1 and FF 1
The Greens will pick up seats in Tasmania, South Australia and WA (added to the 2 senators elected in ’04 Milne and Siewert).
Xenephon will be elected on 1st prefs alone.
The rest will show a 3-3 split.
Bennelong update: Howard picked up a net 50 votes from pre-polls out of a total of 1416.
If that voting split is similar to what is coming from the 7000 (uncounted) postal votes, Howard will pick up only another net 250 votes through the postals. Considering Maxine has a current margin of about 2500, Maxine looks pretty safe. From my maths, Howard would need to win 67.5% of the postals to win the seat.
Just had another look at Cowper and yep – it’s a Nat retain. The four outstanding booths are all hospitals and aged care places as well. You can probably add 2 more for Sefky from my parents who would have voted absentee but that isn’t going to get him over the line.