Morgan: 54.5-45.5

Roy Morgan has released a phone survey of 1670 voters including 1025 in hand-picked Coalition marginals. It shows Labor with an overall lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, or 46.5 per cent to 40 per cent on the primary vote. The picture is somewhat better for the Coalition in the marginals, where the swing to Labor is 5.2 per cent compared with 7.2 per cent overall. Morgan aren’t done yet: the accompanying release tells us “the final Morgan Poll will be conducted tonight and released on election morning”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,119 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5”

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  2. gusface Says:”
    gillard had the line of the election so far

    “dont worry tony ,you can stay on in parliament -as the fitness instructor!” :)”

    Gold LOL! Did Abbott respond with “f*ck you, you a**-hole b*tch, I’ll go you with a knife!”

  6. Yes ESJ, I think we’ll get a 53-47 or 54-46 from Newspoll. That’s a convincing win, but we might only see Labor ahead by 10 seats in the end.

  7. Ashley, the overriding question on primaries is whether you really believe this election is so polarising that the minor party vote is so tiny.

    Personally, I’m an ex-minor party voter who will probably vote 1 Labor this time… but I’m not sure that’s wipe-spread. In any case, a Labor primary of 42.5 would be higher than any result they’ve achieved since 1993.

  9. As far as the the Galaxy poll is concerned, the simple fact is that whilst the Coalition primary vote of 42.5 is in line with what most polls have been saying all campaign (averaging at about 41/42), the labor vote is clearly on the low side, probably explained by the high primary for the greens/others.

  10. LTEP, I think if Galaxy is correct (big if) then most of the missing ALP primary will be with the Greens, and it will flow straight back to Labor on preferences. Can’t see any Coalition marginals getting over the line on primaries.

  11. In relation to the galaxy poll how many people were polled?

    In relation to the questions what were the questions and how were they framed, for example the Telegraph reports:

    However, voters told Galaxy pollsters they expected a Labor election victory on Saturday – 62 per cent to 25 per cent for the Coalition.

    But they were not sure either side deserved to win.

    http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22806538-5001021,00.html

    They were not sure either side deserved to win? sounds like push polling?

  12. Yes Ashley and I think Rudd will govern very conservatively in that case – he will have a small margin, small number of seats and will not want to upset anybody in caucus – and hope the Liberals implode with a view to a big win in 2010.

    Or he may go for the Whitlam option (or his ministry might) God has given us the papacy we should enjoy it sort of school of thought. On reflection through the campaign I doubt the later will happen and obviously the elites have come to the same view which is why he will win.

  13. Personally, I’m an ex-minor party voter who will probably vote 1 Labor this time… but I’m not sure that’s wipe-spread. In any case, a Labor primary of 42.5 would be higher than any result they’ve achieved since 1993.

    You realise the only difference between putting a minor party first and a major party second in most lower house seats is who gets the electoral funding flowing from your first preference vote?

    So if for no other reason, if you are sympathetic to a minor party it’s worthwhile thinking about putting them first and then preferencing the major party of your choice in order to improve funding to the minor party.

  14. 93- You might consider beting markets worthless but I would take them anyday over your collection of “gut feelings” and obvious personal insecurities about the result. There is more than enough evidence to backup the accuracy of betting markets as a predictor especially at the pointy end of an election.

    Worthless might be used to describe an argument that has been banging the same drum for six weeks without any eveidence to back it up apart from anectdotal personal stories and ” gut feelings”.

  15. ESJ — dunno how conservative he will be in some areas. Don’t forget he has “the buck stops with me” line hanging over his head. He’s gotta know that that’s going to come back and bite him on the ass, so I think he’ll be doing some headkicking when it comes to health.

  16. Patrick, I’m more than aware of all that and I will not decide my vote based on funding. I’m yet to decide on my Senate vote and may decide on the spot.

  17. I am in Bennelong. My mum rang me just now excited. She said Howard had rung her and said you will get all these benefits etc listing them. I told her that it must be a recorded message. Campaigning is getting hectic.

  18. Edward,

    I doubt they’ll go the Whitlam route. Once in power the new government will like the feel of the place and want to stay as long as possible. They won’t want to upset too many people. I suspect we’re about to see the most conservative and careful Labor government in history.

  19. Best way for Rudd to get Howard riled up: go and campaign in Bennelong with Maxine. However, it seems both leaders will be in QLD today.

  20. Mccabe wa spushing her usual liberal BS this mroning, was waiting for her to give the week as a win for the coalition again…….but even she coudln’t…….althoigh she did poopoo the flyer scandal she did say that both sides use dirty tricks?????……

  21. LTEP@93:

    [It just tells us who people think will win]

    I couldn’t agree more. The betting market is just reflecting who it is people expect to win, not who they WANT to win.

    According to the Galaxy Poll 62% of people believe that the ALP will win, but only 52% are going to vote for them. It’s 25%/48 2PP for the Coalition.

    Throughout this campaign (and pre-campaign) when there has been a high expectancy that the ALP will win there has been a commensurate drop in the 2PP figure for the ALP. When it looks like the ALP is going to romp home people scratch their heads out in the marginals and wonder “why is that again given that it ain’t broken?”

    I maintain that I don’t think the electorate is sold on either of the parties, and being the favourite this time might possibly be a net negative thing.

  22. george

    i think his sackcloth was chafing him as he squirmed very uncomfortably

    bet abbott thought it though-then did penance for thinking it!

  24. Wow, portlandbet is out to 1.67 for Howard in Bennelong, Centrebet on 1.65. That’s a big move (just over a week ago Howard was on around 1.45).

  25. Paul K,

    True, the best model is a Carr style NSW government. Do nothing controversial, spin furiously, paper over the cracks.

    Sound like something we already know federally?

  26. LTEP,

    So, you might decide your Senate vote on the spot. Well, you’ve had me fooled in here for many dozens of posts that you were someone with rational and sensible basis for making decisions. This is written in sadness, not anger, that I will take your future posts with a ton of salt if, after all this discussion, you are a decide-in-the-booth voter.

  29. Did anyone else notice that the ACNielsen poll also mentioned that they repeated their Online Poll (with a totally different sample), and got the same result.

  31. Hemingway, I’m torn between the Democrats and the Greens but not yet fully decided. Leaning more to the Democrats. There’s a lot to consider.

  34. Ashley, they say it’s possible to weight respondents to these polls… I’m not really sure about that but we must keep an open mind to new sampling methods.

  35. More info on the Galaxy poll:

    Support for the greens 8.5%

    http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22806119-661,00.html

    The Galaxy poll showed Mr Rudd a clear leader as preferred prime minister, 51-43.

    Mr Rudd easily out-campaigned the Prime Minister, according to the poll.

    It showed 57 per cent agreed the Labor leader had been more impressive on the hustings, compared with just 27 per cent who rated Mr Howard the better performer.

    Many Coalition supporters even gave the nod to Mr Rudd, with 27 per cent agreeing he was more impressive in campaigning.

    Voters were more cynical about the parties themselves, with almost half those polled believing neither Labor nor the Coalition deserved to govern.

    Half of those polled said they were better off than three years ago. Less than a third, or 29 per cent, thought they were worse off.

    The Government has run its campaign on the basis of superior economic management.

    After an extended period of economic growth, 55 per cent said they were not financially stressed. But Labor’s cost of living arguments may be resonating, with 44 per cent describing themselves as financially stressed or more stressed than they were three years ago.

    Support for the Greens was 8.5 per cent while Family First came in with 2.5 per cent.

    The Herald Sun/Galaxy phone survey of voter intentions was taken on Tuesday and Wednesday evenings and involved the views of 1186 voters.

  36. More fabulous reporting from news.com.au… apparently “two out of three polls back Labor win”. Which I guess means a 52-48 Galaxy poll in favour of the ALP actually points to a Liberal win.

  40. Voters were more cynical about the parties themselves, with almost half those polled believing neither Labor nor the Coalition deserved to govern.

    …but not having the guts or intelligence to preference another party ahead of them or register their displeasure at compulsory preferential voting with a donkey vote…

  42. Patrick, I’m more than aware of all that and I will not decide my vote based on funding.

    That’s my point, it doesn’t “decide your vote”. Labor doesn’t care if they’re getting your first preference or your sixth preference, so long as the LibNatz are at least one behind them.

  43. If you discount the polls and the betting markets, Labor is heading for a massive electoral defeat. I refuse to accept polls or betting odds at face value. Psephology is the new Voodoo Science. Astrology has never let me down. Except of course during my divorce, unemployment, drinking problem, smoking problem and depression. But I am on new medication now (combination of prozac and viagra) and I have never been better. I can see clearly now and Howard can never be beaten. Only fools deny reality.

  45. 49 Samuel K Yes you are right, but I am quoting a number of people on this site. And it has happened twice. Also it has been mention that Galaxy has a connection to the Liberal Party. We will know the answer on Saturday.

  46. [Which is incorrect. It suggests a narrow ALP win.]

    OR (as has been pointed out many times) it might actually mean a big ALP win on seats, as the Newspoll and Galaxy polling in marginals has been showing the ALP also ahead 52-48. So, if the ALP win 52-48 in marginals and are 52-48 overall, they will also get 52-48 in a lot of other seats.

    There is an acute logic deficiency being experienced by many people at the moment.

    By all means tug on your rabbit’s feat and chant your incantations in the hope of your desired outcome, but please don’t attempt to bend the polling results to suit some contorted logic.

  47. I don’t really care Patrick Bateman. I base my vote on who I believe deserves it. Over the past few years I’ve grown to doubt the Greens and I don’t think the Democrats are running a candidate in my seat.

    I’m not just going to vote a particular way due to financial benefits to political parties.

  48. From the SMH article about the AC Neilsen poll:

    “A Galaxy Poll to be published in News Limited newspapers today shows the election to be a tight contest, with the two main parties tied on 42.5 per cent of the primary vote and Labor leading by 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.

    But sources from both main parties believed that the Herald poll more accurately reflected what their internal polling had found.”

  49. Just had a look the Galaxy poll primary figures which apparently show Family First on 2.5% after not registering anything in the previous Galaxy Polls, and the 2.5% seems to have come straight from the labor primary since the last poll!?

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