Time for a new thread. Here’s a chart showing state-level swings to Labor as recorded by Newspoll throughout the campaign. Note that the most recent result seems to indicate a mild Coalition recovery in Victoria being offset by worsening results elsewhere.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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Coota, got a source?
Either it was 52TPP and 46 primary (doubtful), or 52-48TPP (probable).
We have our first ingredient for tonight’s poll cocktail, it is slightly bitter, the sweet stuff to follow!
I don’t think that the DT would jump in the Labor pool if they thought they were going to drown.
Coota Bulldog,
Where did you get that info from?
52-48 is as rouge as they come. No doubt Galaxy will try and explain away the different on Sunday as it being down to the Kelly race-smear leaflet…
“Are we sure it wasn’t 50 to 46 on primaries?”
RA, VERY unlikely. That would only leave 4% for minor parties and undecideds.
547 – Coota Bulldog: How can the primary vote be TIED? No chance. Surely…?
Source?
Toby — could be 44 each.
It could be 52-46 on primaries which leaves 2% for others – and a 53-47 TPP.
If it is a hung parliament will Bob Katter favour Coalition or Labor he was a former National was he not?
Have we covered that the Daily Telegraph is advocating Rudd?
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22803410-5001021,00.html
551 Ashley
I called the newsroom and they acknowledged it was a mistake, said they would correct it later in the bulletin.
NB so what are the real figures?
Very bad reporting from a dare i say poorly conducted network
The upshot of it all is that the tortoise gets ever nearer to the hare, and the tortoise will win the race. We shouldn’t forget that the Coalition will probably win the election with 52% of the two party preferred.
NB 563 — Right. I thought you meant the reporter had made a mistake and it was actually 52-46 (which obviously doesn’t make sense, cause that’s what the reporter said).
John of Melb:
we don’t know yet! that’s the whole point.
Ten News said it incorrectly as “52-46”
They can’t add up so we’re waiting to have this clarified.
54-46 follows logic. 52-48 follows Galaxy rouge logic to suit Coalition timing…
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Again.
Rofl Jim, same here.
Ten are fantastic aren’t they?
What are they doing on Sat night – three hours of Big Brother highlights, followed by a 30 second update at 10.30 that says Kevin Howard has been elected prime minister?
ACN’s gotta be 54-46 (no, I don’t actually know, this is a *prediction*).
Is anyone actually watching the TV?
Or are we all just killing William’s hosting bandwidth clicking refresh on this site?
Thats a truly useless performance from 10.
569, 570;
here too 🙂 🙂 ……
btw, Spears was very fair on Rudd and not hard nosed at all, but I must admit that I was distracted by hitting the refresh button on the laptop 🙂
Well if she sad 50 to 46
then i would say she got the 1st part wrong
so my guess would be the real result would be
54 to 46
[are we all just killing William’s hosting bandwidth clicking refresh on this site?]
pretty much
Who was closest to getting the actual result last time? Galaxy or AC Neilsen? I know Newspoll were way off due to their preference distribution.
10 News is on in 5 minutes in Adelaide – will let ya know when they mention it.
the narrowing!
*thank god for bogangate
If its 52:48 then it could go to the wire.
Earlier post showed how polls have been wrong for the last several elections.
All talk of a landslide is wishful ‘bull butter’ in the absence of more compelling evidence IMHBCO
[Is anyone actually watching the TV?
Or are we all just killing William’s hosting bandwidth clicking refresh on this site?]
LOL. I hope someone is actually watching.
Anyway, seems we know 52 is the minimum Galaxy, and ACN is higher.
All good!
Galaxy was the closest to the actual results last time, underestimating their result by one point for the Coalition. Their final poll was 48 Labor 52 Coalition.
Dyno I think there will be a simpsons marathon on saturday night
Toby, do you get it live or is it delayed? you might get the same boo-boo ….
LeftyE: If Labor get 52% of the 2pp they will probably lose the election.
Patrick, lol. I think were all watching the bludger, and the correction might slip us by 😉
Maybe Ten are trying to get all of us to watch them.
Sneaky.
simpsons marathon hey, now that’s tempting.
[If Labor get 52% of the 2pp they will probably lose the election.]
Remember what they say about polls. Never take them in isolation…
586 Nostradamus – keep dreaming.
howard on 10?
Ten News still hasn’t corrected in Sydney.
It’ll probably be a footnote before the last weather update, if at all now…
I thuoght all the Libs were saying that there was only 1 poll that mattered 😛
Now they care about Galaxy.
Nostradamus @ 587 – “If Labor get 52% of the 2pp they will probably lose the election.”
Nonsense. Npone has ever lost from 52%. That’s just talking points to shore up Liberal MPs.
Not if it’s uniform:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=4.7&nsw=7.9&vic=7&qld=11.1&wa=5.4&sa=9.4&tas=5&act=5&nt=5&retiringfactor=1
and all the reasearch we’ve seen suggest it’s stronger in marginals and liberal seats
Was it said during the bulletin, or on a pre-recorded story/montage?
Main effect of 52-48 would be to get the Liberal HTV brandishers out of bed on Sat morning. Which they might not have done otherwise, after today.
[If Labor get 52% of the 2pp they will probably lose the election.]
Bollocks. 😉
If you average the coming polls you will probably get the true picture.