Reuters poll trend: 55.0-45.0

This week’s Reuters Poll Trend, a weighted aggregate of Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen, shows little change on the last result: Labor down 0.1 per cent on two-party preferred and 0.4 per cent on the primary vote, to 55.0 per cent and 46.3 per cent, and the Coalition up 0.1 per cent and 0.7 per cent, to 45.0 per cent and 40.6 per cent. Reuters’ James Grubel observes that this is the result of “Morgan going one way, and tightening in Newspoll and Nielsen”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

949 comments on “Reuters poll trend: 55.0-45.0”

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  1. Realistically, is there a chance for a net gain in WA? I think I agree with Mike – net zero at best, minus 1 possible, ALP gains less possible. What is the evidence otherwise?

  2. 784 Mike- WA seats

    Hasluck is a loss for the Libs, they know it and ALP knows it.

    Swan will not move, probably much like Stirling only stirling will have an ALP swing but by how much is unclear.

    Cowan is the blurry one.

    result in WA will be

    a) ALP gain of two (Hasluck and Stirling, cowan holds)
    b) ALP gain of one (hasluck changes only or Hasluck and Stuirling change and Cowan falls)
    c) no net outcome (hasluck changes, Stirling stays and Cowan falls)

    No realistic scenario has a Lib gain at the moment.

    Morgan included Brand in their margainl poll result because the swing to lib due to Beazley retirement will not lose the seat but will make other marginals look closer when combined.

    Morgan need to sell thier stuff cause they are not sponsored like newspoll or ACN. Think about it- why add Brand? every other polling company havent bothered.

  3. Damien id have to say Stirling is looking safe for the tories, Hasluck hummmmm anything could happen there (Labor should of put a new candidate up instead of a reject) and Cowan and Swan could be the bolters not to mention Brand. If the tories win seats in WA and its a close election Howie might flop over the line.

  4. The A Robb on LL. This is the first time I have had any exposure to him. Is he for real? Why didn’t TJ ask him “Since you know that two Libs were expelled, did you not ask who they were?”

  5. “792
    Big Blind Dave Says:
    November 21st, 2007 at 11:04 pm ”

    What you’ve said sounds absolutely correct. I think we make a mistake when we assume that our insider info is completely reliable (unless it’s the actual documentation from Textor Crosby). But it’s interesting, nonetheless!!!

  6. Re: WA, I still find it hard to reconcile the following:

    a) That the worst of the polls has WA at 52/48 to the Libs, which represents a 3% 2PP preferred swing to the ALP based on 2004 when in it was 55-45.

    &

    b) The ALP is going to lose 2+ seats in WA and gain none, according to many.

    Counterintuitive doesn’t even begin to explain things…

  7. Yeah, its a sea change.

    And dont forget the satisfaction of noting:

    At then end of the day, the Libs only managed 11.5 years and four terms, in easy times.

    Compared with the ALPs previous 13 years and 5 terms, in harder times.

    WHy? no renewal.

    That, and a lot of smug coasting. Very little reform. And a lot of nasty, ugly wedge bullshit that finally came home to roost.

    I wonder if Rodent’s concession will be as gracious and tasteful as the last week of the LIB campaign?

  8. “801
    Glen Says:
    November 21st, 2007 at 11:10 pm
    The funny thing is most of what it said was true lol!”

    What are you referring to here, Glen?

  9. ND,

    There is nothing intuitive about the WA situation.

    Every betting market has Labor comfortably retaining all its WA seats plus winning Hasluck, the worst Westpoll represents a 3% swing to the ALP on TPP basis, yet there seem to be several reports that WA could be a net zero or negative for Labor…

    My only way of judging this is to go by the betting markets – if the seat by seat markets were closer, I would say it would be more likely to be a net zero – however, as Labor is leading by a considerable margin in Brand, Cowan, Swan and Hasluck on all betting markets, it seems reasonable to consider them as Labor wins on Saturday…

  10. Swing Lowe- dont believe the betting markets on seat by seat if you can help it.

    Compare Canning with the WA margnials and you will see what i mean.

    Cowan Lib may be the best value odds in the whole market at the moment.

    Let me repeat this people- SWAN IS SAFE

  11. It was as well the ALP had their ears to the ground and picked up what was going on in Lindsay for the sad thing is that a lot of the receipients would have thought it was not only genuine but factual.

    Never forget the AAFI does well out this way.

  12. Julie 513

    Welcome to our little plot. Get yourself a place well away from the centre of town and enjoy the Bush Capital – high rise is coming to the inner bits.

    Some say we’re a cold town but, unless you’re unlucky your neighbours will welcome you – lots of street parties and progressive dinners (I know, sixties, but great bonders).

  13. I want to read the details of the ALP sting team. I better someone was handed a flyer and quickly rang campaign staff and it went from there.

  14. 803 BBD

    hope you’re right mate… fair point on Hasluck… but from what i have been told Cowan is gone… and Swan is not far off being taken… of course if it plays out like that crazy things could happen in Kalgoorlie because their will be a swing towards labor across WA, so the votes have to pop up somewhere… I hope they do in cowan… because i feel if we have a net 0 result in WA we surely win overall…. anyway this Qlder will trust you on WA

  15. VoterBoy of Over the Water about the Grand Mufti and PJK.

    The money is on Keenan to hold Stirling i don’t know how Henry is doing in the betting markets but why oh why did Labor put its rejected candidate surely there’s some other union boss to fill that vacancy?

    Cowan should turn blue after the election, had Andrew Peter Murfin not made gaffes in 2004 he’d have won Swan so Swan could go either way really.

  16. I remember when AIDS happened the index patient was a French Canadian flight attendant who supposedly had sex with 10,000 men.

    I wonder if there is an equivalent index patient for this election. It seems to me we all form our opinions on:

    1) Betting markets
    2) Polls
    3) Our own prejudices

    I believe these are all unreliable now, largely because the smarties are onto 1&2. Is there an archetypal voter?

  17. What do you mean ESJ? The ‘smarties’? It’s not some silly idea about telling the pollsters fibs so you can get money is it? Because people have been arguing that for a long long time.

  18. 825 Glen

    Hasluck is blowing out in the betting market, has been around $1.75 to $1.95 for most of the campaign. Stuart “BGC Brickworks” Henry is now as likely to win as Don Randal is likely to lose Canning on 9.5% according to betting markets

  19. Doesn’t matter what the next polls say, after the Lindsay scandal they’ll all be wrong. The question is by how much. And what else is to come out. This is a pollsters dream. They can now blame their inaccuracies on this late scandal.

  20. God Andrew Robb is a blowhard. It isn’t a misdemeanor distributed unauthorised election campaign material, it is UNLAWFUL. There is a HUGE difference.

  21. I am saying LTEP we use things like polls and markets to tell us what is happening, but it seems to me that people do to some extent act counterintuitively to these things.

    On the “feel” of individual seats I do feel there is a shaman element. Certain people from both parties are meant to have the ability to feel the pulse of the individual electorate, like Bennelong is looking good for us or Lilley is going to be alright. What qualifies someone for Shaman status?

  22. Voter Boy – If you’re still with us. I believe you are being fair dinkum with us about you insider friend. It rings true. And apart from that, I can’t think of any reason why anybody would go to all that trouble just to bullshit to us.

    I’m a little curious about one aspect of it though . You reported a lot of things in a lot of detail, far more than I could have done myself just from memory of a conversation. Did you take notes while he was speaking to you, or did you perhaps record the conversation? Or do you just have a much better memory than average?

    Whatever, I hope you’ll keep the good oil coming.

  23. “826
    Edward StJohn Says:
    November 21st, 2007 at 11:22 pm
    I remember when AIDS happened the index patient was a French Canadian flight attendant who supposedly had sex with 10,000 men.”

    The Patient Zero story was a myth. http://www.nybooks.com/articles/4227
    The numbers were not 10,000. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ga%C3%ABtan_Dugas

    But I salute your valiant attempt to once again introduce homosexuality into a totally unrelated discussion.

    Get your fixations seen to, Eddie

  24. The allocation of campaign resources is a very clear indication of what internal party polling is saying.

    Today Stuart Henry was at the Midland train station for peak hour this morning- it is the biggest train station in the electorate- serving thousands a day.

    There was him and one other helper only. I managed to tie the helper up for 20 minutes as hundreds if not thousands walked past- they were grateful for the attention from me it seemed.

    At the start of the campaign you couldn’t move in the electorate for young Libs.

    Swan is almost exactly the same story. There hasn’t even been a campaign by either party in Brand. In fact much more activity has occured in Canning.

    I am telling you it’s over in Hasluck and Stirling for the Lib campaigns.

  25. Darn at 835. I took notes. And I slowed him down at certain points (laughter was a handy device) so I could get down the best bits. In fact he said much more than what I had, but the quotes are authentic word-for-word and overall they’re an accurate precis of what he said.

    I must say I felt a frisson of delight when he mentioned the stuff about Howard and Bennelong…

  26. Interesting to see how the Tele online valiantly tries to equate damage done to election posters (no doubt by hoons) with this election’s equivilent of the Reichstag fire. Leading Liberal party members caught redhanded with their vile text plagiarised from Der Stürmer

  27. People are too pessimistic on the potential result in WA. I live here and get the feeling there has been a strong move to the ALP compared to the last election. The polls we have seen for WA are suss given the small sample size and anything originating out of that rag the West Australian needs to be taken with a ton of salt. I’m predicticting a net gain to the ALP of 4.

  28. Besides which if your fantasy was true Voter Boy,
    what does it say about the morality/ethics of someone who would record a conversation and post it on a blog, do you video your “friends” too and post that on the internet?

  29. Edward @ 843

    Three times now, to my knowledge, you’ve gone off on unrelated riffs about homosexuality. A while back you asked me whether you could ask a ‘personal question’ – it was some bizarre thing about why men loathed the idea of male-male sexual activity but not female-female. Yesterday or the day before you again came up with one of these coy ‘can I ask a personal question’ formulations – this time it was why gay men were so witty but lesbians so humourless. This latest foray is just as tendentious. You know what I’m getting at. Your behaviour is creepy. Stop it.

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