Reuters poll trend: 55.0-45.0

This week’s Reuters Poll Trend, a weighted aggregate of Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen, shows little change on the last result: Labor down 0.1 per cent on two-party preferred and 0.4 per cent on the primary vote, to 55.0 per cent and 46.3 per cent, and the Coalition up 0.1 per cent and 0.7 per cent, to 45.0 per cent and 40.6 per cent. Reuters’ James Grubel observes that this is the result of “Morgan going one way, and tightening in Newspoll and Nielsen”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

949 comments on “Reuters poll trend: 55.0-45.0”

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  2. ASIC has just blown a huge hole in Howard housing plan for shared equity.

    “An investigation by Australia’s corporate watchdog has found home-owners taking out so-called “reverse mortgages” knew little about the high-risk credit product”

    http://news.smh.com.au/asic-warns-on-reverse-mortgages-risks/20071121-1by3.html

    The huge personal debt of over $600 billion is largely from people borrowing against the equity in their house.

    ASIC also said
    “Most people did not have tailored projections about the likely long-term cost of a reverse mortgage.” The report found a number of borrowers who said it had been difficult to resist the constant availability of credit. A small number of consumers were already expressing regrets about how they had used their reverse mortgage and how quickly they had exhausted the funds they had borrowed, the ASIC report found.”

    This credit became available when house prices soared following Howards tax reforms for investors, a fair part of the demand in the economy is due to this credit which came out of thin air, not from anything productive.

    ASIC and others are now calling for restriction on the way reverse mortgages are marketed and sold.

    We should have had a government that took an active interest in this part of the economy instead of one that sat back and watched, not wanting to overburden business with regulations is just an excuse for laziness and ineptness.

  3. Stephen,

    If you are going to tells fibs you need to try harder to make them believable. You honestly expect us to believe you have access to internal polls from BOTH sides? You are full of it.

    And yes I don’t believe your story on your site about the so-called “swinging” voters deciding to vote Lib due to what is happening in America. That’s the lamest reason I’ve heard so far for deciding how to vote. It’s straight from the Liberal Party propaganda handbook.

  4. One of the people named in the news stories is a Jeff Egan.
    You want irony, I got your irony right here:

    Jeff Egan understands how all levels of government operate and has the relationships and experience to assist clients to achieve their objectives and protect their interests.

    I wonder how long that bio will be up? Maybe he can claim that the Liberal party wasn’t actually one of his clients, he was helping out for free. Because I think it’s safe to say he’s not managed either of those 2 things listed.

    From the tagline of a piece he wrote in the SMH 8 months ago:
    Jeff Egan is a member of the Liberal Party’s NSW executive and a former adviser to Helen Coonan. He is the director of government relations at Flagship Communications.

    Whoops.

  5. [If you are going to tells fibs you need to try harder to make them believable. You honestly expect us to believe you have access to internal polls from BOTH sides? You are full of it.]

    It is TRUE! He is a member of both the Liberal and Labor parties!

  6. Labor would win this Saturday even without Work Choices.

    Housing affordability, health funding, the cost of living, education, interest rate increases and climate change and the water shortages are enough for a change of government.

    Australia has serious problems in all of these areas but we are fortunate in having the unique opportunity of having labor governments in control in all states and territories and now federally to confront these problems and work together on national wide basis to correct them.

    Voters are not dumb, they can see through the bull spun to them as has been shown in previous elections. Families have had it better than this and they deserve better than this.

    Housing is not affordable for the average Australian, Howard’s changes to tax laws has seen the investor share of housing move from 15% to over 34% in a short time and the libs blame game on state charges doesn’t cut it when people see that investors like Jackie Kelly and Debnams struggling mum and dad investors own eight houses. Yet we have kids staying at home with their parents into their late 20’s or longer because they can’t afford to buy. And Howard says there is no affordability crisis.

    The average family has seen health costs soar with a typical doctors visit costing $63 and simple procedures far more and the liberal blame game fell apart when Abbott admitted underfunding health.

    We see that inflation is low yet the cost of the most basic item food is soaring, we can go into the supermarket and buy the basics and the bargains yet still be down $220.00 and petrol prices gouge our wallets each time we fill up yet.

    A good education for our kids seems out of reach with university degrees hitting$100,000 and $200,000.

    We have had our tenth interest rate increase on the trot, yet when we complain we are told we shouldn’t have over extended ourselves and stop buying plasma TVs.

    Our gardens are dead and dying because of water restrictions and for years we had Howard denying climate change and refusing to talk to the states on funding for water.

    We are told the economy is booming, I can see record profits and share prices, but there are people struggling out there or seeing their kids struggling with no light on the hill.

    The thing is with all labor governments is it stops the blame game, people will expect them to work together to solve these problems and they can’t turn around blame the state or federal governments of a different colour in power. If they don’t provide good solutions they will be voted out one by one.

    This change is more than voting out Howard and the liberal party who as Amber and others have said have wasted the boom years, it is about voting for change for the better and a new age in state and federal cooperation.

    There are plenty of references to the light on the hill of Chifley in labor’s speeches so wave farewell to the liberals but also look forward to the future at the same time.

    I expect the result on Saturday will be 92 seats but a landslide of more than 100+ will send a message to all labor governments that a lot of trust is being put in them and that as they were brought in on landslide they can just as easy be voted out on one if they don’t perform.

  7. Ah, Hossen, a voice of reason re.WA. RBJ, a toss-up between you (ALP to win 4-5) and Glen (Libs to pick up 3) for the out-there award. I think you could have it, by a nose.

  12. Arbie Jay 906

    No reason to disagree, except that:

    Workchoices, the implication of ‘don’t care’ for the people, is definitely the key.

    It is the reason for unlocking whatever ‘mesmerised’ minds, to which Howard referred, with reference to Kevin’s appeal, has caused many, many to take stock and focus.

    Bring that along with ownership of the Senate, as well as the Reps.

    Howard is puzzled, I am sure, that the minds are not responding to his his stock in trade.

    Hypnotism, and high wire acts.

    An interesting term, on his part. Mesmerised.

  13. Can someone please make sense of ShameAham for me!
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22801439-5013945,00.html

    First he makes this statement;

    Although the Coalition’s support has improved slightly in the home states of John Howard and Kevin Rudd since the election campaign began,

    OK so I expect to read a slight drop for ALP but then he gives the figures;

    Labor’s primary vote in NSW, the Prime Minister’s home base, rose from 45per cent to 47per cent in the two weeks to November 18, while the Coalition’s fell from 43per cent to 39per cent.

    Primary support for Labor in Queensland was unchanged at 49 per cent, while the Coalition’s primary vote was down to 41 per cent.

    What is this idiot on about?

  14. For sure, ShowsOn, 611.

    One of the Libs showed up here a couple of days ago. Mmm. The one who joined the old Libs not so long ago.

    Asserted that Nicole had no chance. Too many meetings, already.

    Laughed. Again.

  16. I enjoyed the part about Howard`s strength in the west, which has him at a giddy 50% 2pp. Cop that! ALP gain 2 – as I`ve been saying for bloody weeks. AHHHH

  17. Stephen Says:
    November 22nd, 2007 at 12:55 am

    Paul K @ 884

    I really don’t care if you believe me or not. This is going to be close. 5 seat either way with the Coalition at an advanatge, just. Have both polls because my father is an ex politician.

    ROFLMFAO, Just because current serving ministers of either side don’t get shown internal polls doesn’t mean you can’t hand them out to ex members so their sons can post them all over the net. That’s a crackup!

  18. Not to mention Queensland, where the ALP on 49% primary is apparently targetting 3, I repeat , 3 marginal seats. A little closer to 10 seats, complete carnage on those figures Denis. Don`t let the facts get in the way of another page of tripe though

  20. I think poor Shameahams cube is well and truly broken Crikey.

    But if those figures he published are anywhere near correct my 85 seat prediction will go in the first 1/2 hour of counting. Even Shanahan is predicting total annihilation.

  25. McKew now at $2.25 on portlandbet. I wonder how long they’ll maintain these odds on this seat. My guess is it’ll tip on Friday arvo.

  26. My 80 seat prediction is looking lame 😉
    Qld still bothers me even with primary of 49%. Still only 3% Green, there’s a big “other” of 7%. Still must be 6 seats at the least, surely.

  27. Ignore Shanahan’s article in today’s ‘oz’ . It is based on the last 2 News Poll Polls for the 2 PREVIOUS weekends. ie. The oz is filling up space with old info

  28. The ‘oz’ is saying the News poll figures are NEW cumulative poll results. They are not ! If you read the ‘PDF’ you will the interviews were conducted on 9/11-10/11 AND 16/11-17/11. All the ‘cumulative poll’ does is add the 2 News poll figures together !
    It is OUTDATED Polling info

  30. Yes Ron, they have been publishing these 2-week aggregates for 4 weeks now, takes out the Newspoll bumpiness, and makes a great trend line – basically 55-45 all the way …

  31. Just put those Newspoll numbers in Antony Green’s calculator – or at least tried to – the swing was too big in Queensland.

    All I can say is that at least Hitler got to kill himself. On these numbers, it looks as though the Russian tanks are already in the Bunker and about to batter the bedroom door down.

  35. I have no knowledge or information on the issue, but given the high executive level at which the Liberals have been implicated in the “Ala-gate” scandal in Lindsay, I wonder what other, more extensive enquiries have been conducted by the ALP to see how widespread these tentacles have reached.

    It is possible that similar scams have or are being conducted in other seats with small but significant Moslem communities, to feed off ethnic and religious fears?

    After all, the Libs have a proven track record in that regard (Tampa, Children Overboard etc.), and it might pay for Labor to put out a public call, not only denying the implications, but seeking public assistance in sending in any suss flyers from the Liberals which land in their letterboxes. They may get inundated!

    Yeah, yeah, of course I’m taking the proverbial, but isn’t it great to be able to do so, knowing the Libs can only gnash their teeth and have absolutely no defence or response?

  40. A 5% swing against Labor in 1996 was characterised as voters waiting their their baseball bats. Given these polls indicate a 7.9% swing against the Libs, what are voters waiting with now? Gatling guns?

    What the hell is going on over there?

  42. Glen

    Whatever else you are, you are an honest Tory supporter. You articulate the reasons that you plan to vote for the Howard Government. I disagree with them, but I respect your views. This site will be the poorer if you decide to abandon it on polling night.

  43. Howard & Co should be trialled for this disgusting race / hate crime.
    For long, fear mongering and race / hate stirring are common practice of Liberal / Coalition.
    Unfortunate for Howard, this time he has been caught pants-down.

  46. A similar coffee bean poll in the Canberra Centre showed a comfortable Senate win for the Greens in the ACT, for what that’s worth.

    But surely, glen, the WA coffee poll underestimates the National vote?

  48. (750) I can not believe that this stuff is coming from the adult division of the LP if it was from the Young Liberals I could understand.

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