Reuters poll trend: 55.0-45.0

This week’s Reuters Poll Trend, a weighted aggregate of Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen, shows little change on the last result: Labor down 0.1 per cent on two-party preferred and 0.4 per cent on the primary vote, to 55.0 per cent and 46.3 per cent, and the Coalition up 0.1 per cent and 0.7 per cent, to 45.0 per cent and 40.6 per cent. Reuters’ James Grubel observes that this is the result of “Morgan going one way, and tightening in Newspoll and Nielsen”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

949 comments on “Reuters poll trend: 55.0-45.0”

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  1. 1,2,3 & 4. This is not a new poll. This tracks the polls over the last 6 months, and measures trends over time. Situation normal, which is a landslide for labor.

  2. All you lot assuring people of a landslide are going to give Labour supporters nightmares if the Libs pull off victory. I will stick to being paranoid so the pain will be lessened when Himmler and co are re-elected.

  3. Hmm, great chart, but there is something missing:

    Imagine you are looking down at some squashed roadkill, draw two eyes at the front, (add some whiskers for extra detail) a tail between the sprawled out legs on the right, and then place large title underneath:

    Dead Rodent found squashed under Ruddmobile.

    (Print out and place on fridge for reminder about what the mythical ‘narrowing’ looks like!)

  4. Galaxy IS NOT INCLUDED WHICH MAKES IT USELESS

    Galaxy has been the least favourable to Labor

    Worse still , Morgan is included and Morgan has recorded the MOST favourable to Labor

    Do these pollsters think the public would miss such a blatant error

    I want a Labor win , but lets be realistic and include ALL 4 polls , which on a pure guess would average 53.5 to 54 2PP

  5. I want rid of the rodent as much as the next person but 55 v 45. I think not!
    52.5 v 47.5 is more likely and we still the rodent run out of town.

  6. 10 kirribilli removals
    I thought, reading your post, that you might have meant Possum Comitatus. I mean, I know the marsupial has made some bold projections, but I don’t think the LNP would go after him/her like that! ๐Ÿ˜‰

  7. The Barrie Cassidy show (which is a laugh a minuite, especially when he pouts) has a poll of the polls and it is exactly the same as this and has been for weeks. There is no narrowing. There is only the gulf, or if you’re a rodent, the abyss. Into which rodent now gazes, and which, as we know, gazes also …

    Sorry about that.

    Anyway, business as usual, cruise mode, steady as she goes, or whatever other cliche you can think of.

    BTW – Possum has had a look at the WA marginal Roy Morgan thing and concludes that the disposition of preferences has been modified using Roy Morgan magic dust. He reckons the 2PP is about 51:49 in favour of the ALP. Sounds fine to me!

  8. What will constitute a โ€œlandslideโ€???????? How many seats? How big will the swing have to be? Who decides this?

    Whitlam in 72 81 seats
    Hawke in 83 90 seats
    Howard in 96 95 seats
    Fraser in 75 108 seats

    From AG’s calculator an ALP TPP of 55.0 will give Rudd 92 seats so right in the middle there. AG’s calculator assumes 2 indies, but Mackeras said recently there’ll be 3 indies, so that would leave 91 for Rudd.

  9. Galaxy seems to be poll lite, they seem to use smaller samples, poll less regularly and havent to me established any real credibility, I dont pay much heed to anything other then AC Neilson since they have a long history of predicting the closest to actual result.

  10. Keeping a Lid @ 15

    Oh, no dear, the Possum is a marsupial, and a very fine animal. The Rodent is very much an entirely different beast altogether!

  11. Brian Costar is predicting 96 seats

    What will happen? Labor will poll just in excess of 54 per cent of the two-party preferred vote โ€“ a swing of 7 per cent since 2004 โ€“ and will win about 36 additional seats to give it 96 House of Representatives members. If you think this is far-fetched remember the Coalition currently holds 88 seats.

    in this article http://www.apo.org.au/webboard/comment_results.chtml?filename_num=181224 .

    This election to me looks like 1996 in reverse, so I’m going to stick my neck out and say 95.

  12. The last week has been a shocker for Howard. I think there is a chance of a real blow-out in the last couple of days. No mistakes from Rudd, a PM who has announced his retirement ( and captured well by ALP ads) – the punters will say:why not give the new bloke a go? It could get close to 95 seats – a once in a generation result.

  13. A few of things for all of us who are becoming more nervous by the minute.

    The ’13 ineligible candidate’ story is well and true collapsed. Even the Herald Sun has written an article titled Web smear falls to pieces

    To assuage you anxiety read this article by Brian Costar (thanks Mumble for the link).

    The Boat People are Indonesian So not really coming from a country where refugee come from. I expect them to be repatriated soon.

    Rudd made a joke about ‘earwaxgate’ See it here in all its hilarity.

  14. This is a โ€œnarrowingโ€ ๐Ÿ™‚

    I willing to wager that the only thing narrowing is the coalitions collective colons as they sh** themsleves.

  15. Agree, Alpal, thats possible.

    There’s really only two possible results after Team Rodent’s shockingly inept campaign capitulation to the better side:

    1. Safe ALP victory 80-85 seats
    2. Landslide 90+

  16. Yes, what is it with Galaxy? They seem to be moving about a bit. They are measuring a high green vote in marginals as well. AC Neilson seems to be the most consistent. I’m also impressed whenever I see Stirton interviewed or quoted. He comes across as “just the facts” John and leaves the fanciful to amatuers like us.

  17. “I think there is a chance of a real blow-out in the last couple of days. No mistakes from Rudd, a PM who has announced his retirement ( and captured well by ALP ads) – the punters will say:why not give the new bloke a go? It could get close to 95 seats – a once in a generation result.”

    glad to see i’m not the only person who thinks this. if there is any movement, has the coalition done anything to deserve it in their direction.

  18. Kirribilli Removals @ 11

    And I thought poll interpretation was like reading entrails – now you’ve proven it! It looks good on my partition.

  19. I remain to be convinced. Only Saturday night, when I will drink either scotch (rodent) or champagne, will I be convinced… is there any chance that the result will be a 54-55 to 46-47 total, but that the libs still win enough seats?

    discuss

  20. Looks like Coonan is learning Republican tricks.
    [The Communications Minister, Helen Coonan, continues to deny Tom “hacked” the software filters, saying he bypassed them by gaining access to the administrator account on his computer.

    Senator Coonan then sought to discredit Tom, who lives with his parents in Melbourne, saying he “continued to seek notoriety using any means possible”.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/news/web/schoolboy-whiz-helps-draft-labor-cyber-policy/2007/11/21/1195321833867.html

  21. LATEST HEADLINES :

    We are getting dumber : Rudd (HeraldSun)

    OZ dumber under Howard : Rudd (Daily Telegraph)

    Howardโ€™s education failure : Rudd (Adelaide Advertiser)

    The first 2 headlines BIASELY but cleverly paint Rudd calling Aussies dumb

    The 3rd headline tells the TRUTH of what Rudd said

    I have failed in vain on this blog to get ANY interest in bloggers boycotting these
    anti Labor newspapers in favor of evenhanded ones like Sydney Morning Herald/Age

  22. I’m not sure this is a once in a generation result for the ALP. I reackon after a comfortable victory this Saturday (85 seats) Kevin Rudd will lead a centrist, middle of the road government, and provided that there is no global economic meltdown, he will retain his immense personal popularity.

    This, combined with the electortae’s general willingness to give a new government an extended go will see the 2010 election record the highest ever ALP vote in Australian history. (The template is the Victorian 2003 election where Steve Bracks – popular, nice guy, centrist – won the ALP’s biggest vote in Victorian history.)

    If you want once in a generation, just wait three years.

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