Reuters poll trend: 55.0-45.0

This week’s Reuters Poll Trend, a weighted aggregate of Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen, shows little change on the last result: Labor down 0.1 per cent on two-party preferred and 0.4 per cent on the primary vote, to 55.0 per cent and 46.3 per cent, and the Coalition up 0.1 per cent and 0.7 per cent, to 45.0 per cent and 40.6 per cent. Reuters’ James Grubel observes that this is the result of “Morgan going one way, and tightening in Newspoll and Nielsen”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

949 thoughts on “Reuters poll trend: 55.0-45.0”

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  1. John @ 49 I think you are right. You could also add in a swing by WA back to Labor. Mortgage stress and depleted housing stcks should be hitting them around then.

  2. Rudd looks so relaxed and at ease when he fronts the media now, his sense of humour has been coming through which makes him all the more human to the punters, i’ve certainly noticed a difference.

  3. Well Mark, now that we know you are the smartest person in the room I don’t think Hugh is showing ignorance at all.

    As we have been debating on this blog it is the polling in the vunerable Coalition seats that count. The rest means nothing. Nothing will change with a 10% swing in Parkes.

    I am nervous we won’t cross the line. Mathematically 16 seats is a big ask. I will be happy if we win the 16 to form Government outright and that is my prediction.

  4. Yer this incident in Indonesia is minor as it was only 16 people compared to 460 in the Tampa. In addition, i dont think the SAS can land on a small boat and any negative action would look petty. Its going to be close but remember one thing. LAst election, howard was warning against a protest vote, he threfore knew he would win. This time around, he is campaigning in safe coalition seats and the campaign is a shambles.

  5. “Hugh” is either the prizewinning nervous nellie or is the most egregious yet of the concern trolls. A loss with 53 percent plus of TPP? Get a grip and stop wasting bandwidth mate.

  6. Mark Vaile has an explanation for the flat polls. It’s the employers fault! Anyway he’s joined the Dead Parrots Society “Hall of Fame” today at ‘Labor View from Broome’. Click on my name for the link. Have fun!

  7. Still and all – I can’t get a good read on the “I just dunno” crowd as per SBS Insiders. “I just dunno” in the polling booth could shave the 90+ predictions – like to 88 🙂 (Although to be serious for 2 secs I dunno myself of the impact of undecideds.)

  8. DLP

    more and more commentators are saying when the swing is on, the swing is on. The polls have been solid on 55/45 for months. The 2004 election where Howard won 88 seats was an aberration, and a reaction against Latham. The pendulum is swinging back and all the indications are it will be a landslide. I feel confident, but if for some reason it doesn’t happen, I’ll deal with it.

  10. Great 🙂

    This is exactly why people shouldn’t get too focused on an eclectic collection of marginal seat polls, some of which can be chosen precisely because they might give the illusion of the Coalition doing better. I know results might vary from seat to seat but, overall, if the result is like this, there can be only one outcome.

    The only thing that bothers me is that it is the two I regard as accurate – AC Neilsen and Newspoll – that are tightening. Still, even at 54/46, Australia will still be rodent free next week. In fact, even Bennelong will be 🙂

    Also agree with everything said about Rudd. Nerd or not, he has campaigned pretty damn well.

  11. WHERE WILL THE SWINGS OCCUR?
    The ALP can score a comfortable win with a 4% national swing ie. ALP 51.3% 2PP, LNP 48.7% 2PP. Based on varying figures across the states (using Antony Green’s calculator): NSW swing 4.9%, Vic 0.8%, Qld 7.3%, SA 5.5%, WA 2 %, Tas 2.8%, NT 3.0%. Total seats won = 20 gives ALP 80, LNP 68, IND 2. Anything higher is a bonus. BUT bigger swings in Vic, Tas, ACT and NT and smaller swings in the other states could still reverse the election with ALP still achieving a 4% swing but LNP scraping in with 77 seats, IND 2 and ALP only 71 seats. THat’s why it’s so important in which states the swings occur (especially Qld and WA). The variation of 9 seats includes 2 in NSW, 3 in Qld, 3 in WA and 1 in SA. Even a 5% swing everywhere but WA (0%) would leave a hung parliament ALP 75 LNP 73 IND 2. ALP would have 51.8% 2PP to LNP 48.2% LNP. That’s what Howard’s hoping for!

  14. Rob

    I hope you are right. 1983 all over again would be nice but you have to admit that Kevin Rudd is no Bob Hawke and his opponent is more formidable than Fraser.

  15. Davo

    You doomsayer you. All things being equal, if Labor picks up 51.3% of the vote they’re in. No party has formed a government with less than 49% of the 2PP. Howard can hope all he wants but it just aint gonna happen.

  16. Ron Brown

    I agree. Boycotting the hacks is a good strategy. I only check News ltd websites occaisionally if it is relevant for a particular story. Rupert hasn’t actually gotten our money to buy a copy of the Australian, much less the Advertiser, for a long time. He won’t again, until he makes changes. We now get the SMH or Age, depending on when tehy arrive, and the Adelaide Independant on the weekend.

    Speaking of MSM, I hope this Reuters average gets reported by them. It will destroy the spin.

  17. Guys, just received two letters from Costello, after only having received on letter from him way back before the campaign was officially launched.

    Letter 1:

    – Not one mention of the Liberal Party, but says “Coalition”
    – Talks about the “future of our children” and “quality of Education”
    – outlines the Gov rebates for families with children

    Letter 2:

    – Nor one mention of the Liberal Party or Coalition – but mentions “our team”
    – talks about local issues
    – mentions “repaying Labor debt”
    – in bold “Recent turbulence in the world economy”
    – 70% of Labor front bench Union officials
    – came with brochure:
    – “Peter Costello’s 7 point action plan for Higgins”
    – “A stronger local economy and stronger community”
    – only mention of Liberal party on bottom back of brochure:
    – Vote Liberal = Economy Stability
    – Visit our website liberal.org.au

    Then we received a comic book from him also titled “Captain Smirk kills Union Man” and is all about how Captain Smirk from the planet Smirkoid will…. I’m kidding people…. 🙂

  20. Davo,

    I respect your caution in considering different possibilities by State, but I don’t see how we can expect a lower than average swing in SA and Qld – every poll suggests the opposite. Plus there has been a lot of campaign effort in both.

  21. “I have failed in vain on this blog to get ANY interest in bloggers boycotting these
    anti Labor newspapers in favor of evenhanded ones like Sydney Morning Herald/Age”

    Well you have my support. The thing about those headlines is that Rudd never actually used the words “dumb” or “dumber”. These were just inventions by the reporters. Rudd was simply making the point that Howard has failed to maintain the kinds of funding levels of education that many other countries have maintained, which does not not just include developed countries but also many developing countries.

    From this, News Ltd papers have turned Rudd’s important points into a smear where it is being hinted that Rudd thinks Australians are dumb. That is blatant bias and spin, not factual reporting. It seems to me that it is actually News Ltd who thinks that Australians are dumb by expecting us all to swallow this kind of rubbish.

  22. Instead of worrying about what constitutes a “landslide” all of you ALP staffers should be far more worried about extending your tenure beyond 2010!

    I predict the ALP will pick up between 22 and 26 seats – i.e. finishing up with between 82 and 86…fairly much in line with some of the other posts here.

    Assuming (my) worst-case scenario (for the Coalition) of 86 ALP seats plus Katter, Windsor and the independent who I think will win Forrest off the Liberals, that leaves the Coalition on 61 and 14 seats off victory in 2010 (or maybe even earlier).

    This is turn raises the issues of margins. If the (say) 14 seats to be won in 2010 are all under 1.5% that is a very different proposition to the 14th seats being at 4.0%.

    Above the dozen or so no-brainer gains (see Adam Carr’s blog), I just reckon that the second dozen seats will be razor thin margins. I predict this will be difference between this year’s “landlslide” and the landslides of 1966, 1975, 1977 and 1976

    On another issue, why do people even bother taking notice of Mad Macks any more. The guy has been wrong, sometimes spectacularly so, on so many occasions, he really ought to save his breath.

  24. For Hugh, unless the swing is huge in Tas, ACT and NT (or only in ALP safe seats on the mainland) once the swing gets above 5% (ie ALP 52.3% 2PP) seats will start to fall very quickly wherever the swing occurs. AT 6% 2PP swing (ALP 53.3%) the ALP +25 seats. At 6.7% (ALP 54%) ALP +30 seats!

  25. Further on Rudd and the comment that “he is no Hawke”. I agree, but that may not be a bad thing. I think it is a mistake when politicians try to reinvent their personality. Look at how insincere Howard’s huggs come across. I can’t believe that wins votes. Rudd is a nerd, admits it, then speaks clearly and well. To me that comes across fine – sincere and competent. He doesn’t have to be an orator, his opponent certainly isn’t.

  27. A national 55/45 two party preferred sounds pretty right to me, at worst 54/46, a swing of 7% to 8% on 2004, but these swings won’t be uniform across the nation, so we will surely see a few Coalition seats on less than 5% margins being retained, but a lot more on above 5% to go to the ALP.

    86 seats to the ALP, 62 to the Coalition and 2 independents, an almost mirror image of the current parliament.

  28. Lassiters betting have said on Agenda that JWH with the odds as they stand has NO precedent to take back his seat of Bennrlong 2 days out from an election.

  29. Ron Brown said, “I have failed in vain on this blog to get ANY interest in bloggers boycotting these
    anti Labor newspapers ”

    ‘Failing in vain’ is certainly an interesting concept however…..

    Give it a rest! Do you think we’re all stupid? Murdoch hasn’t had a red razoo off me for 10 years and never will again.

    Just stop buying his rags, stop subscribing to his TV and give us a break.

  30. Someone above mentined ’72 as a landslide election. It wasn’t, it was really only 8 seats changing hands, which I’d hardly call a landslide.

    Forecast: Likely ALP win, but not certain.

  31. #27 Brian Costar’s prediction is worth noting. He is cautious and fairly conservative, and not given to rash forecasts. He does a lot of his own research, and is somewhat of an expert on the roles of the National Party and Independents.
    If he says it will be a landslide, he must be confident of that. And the reasons he gives are all the same reasons that poll-readers have given here.

  32. DLP @ 68 spot-on mate! Antony’s calculator is a lot of fun. Its true utility is when you break it down state-by-state. But even then the pendulum has serious limitations. I cannot think of an election where so many trend-bucking results are on the cards or certain…think Ryan (which could be won by ALP), Boothby (which will be a barbie-doll induced oasis of support for the Liberals in SA) and Wentworth (I still reckon the result on Saturday night will make it look like a WA seat). The bottom line is that the bookies remain the best guide

  33. Ron Brown. Perhaps theres been no response because no one here buys them anyway? I know I don’t (although I always check the headline in the newsagent to maintain my rage).

  36. “I’m not sure this is a once in a generation result for the ALP.”

    I agree. I don’t think we will be seeing the Libs getting “smashed” this time around, but presuming they lose, it will be the next election that will be the big one. By then, and especially after the Coalition loses control of the senate in July next year, the Liberal Party will be too busy with in-fighting to develop any cohesive policy plans for the future. The federal party will become similar to the state parties, that is, hopeless and unelectable.

    Also, by that stage, Rudd will have had 3 years to demolish the record of the previous government, especially after the real facts about the effects of WorkChoices are exposed. In particular, this nasty piece of legislation will haunt the Liberals for years. There will be a lot of fear in the community about putting them back in power in case they ever try to bring back WorkChoices.

    Anyway, for what it is worth, I think Labor have the best chance in a very long time of winning, but I am nervous. It is hard to get past the fact that Australians are fearful of changing governments. It almost seems pathological. European friends of mine are often shocked and appalled when they hear that Australia has only changed the federal government four times in little under 60 years.

    But I do think that Howard will be losing his seat. I certainly hope so because I bet $100 on it!

  38. ruawake, I’m not changing my prediction as I put it at that time, it’s far too late for that. But on Friday I’ll probably sit down and look at it seat-by-seat and predict what I really think will happen. I still think it’ll be extremely tight, but I think going on the current evidence it’s hard to put together a scenario where the ALP fails to win a net of 14 seats unless you conclude the polls are wrong.

  43. 86- Nooncat

    By then, and especially after the Coalition loses control of the senate in July next year, the Liberal Party will be too busy with in-fighting to develop any cohesive policy plans for the future.

    so what makes that different to now?

  46. Ofcourse, Newspoll would be tightening in favour of the Coalition. Rupert would be on the phone from New York. All of those arch -conservative journalists that dominate the Australian media are in a mass panic that they wont be able to force feed the Australian people and tell us how lucky we have been under the rule of the Almighty God John Howard!!!!!!

  47. Hey Guys,

    When does the ad blackout kick in? I just saw a ding buzz ad on the cricket on Fox Sports 3?

    I thought it was midnight last night?

    Are the ALP being naughty?

  49. @82 Chris from Edgecliff

    I have noticed today that Wentowrth has reappeared on Centrebet (at least I could’nt find it last night).

    Newhouse is at $2.90, I got on him at $3.05 a couple of weeks back.

    Roll on Saturday night !

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