Reuters poll trend: 55.0-45.0

This week’s Reuters Poll Trend, a weighted aggregate of Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen, shows little change on the last result: Labor down 0.1 per cent on two-party preferred and 0.4 per cent on the primary vote, to 55.0 per cent and 46.3 per cent, and the Coalition up 0.1 per cent and 0.7 per cent, to 45.0 per cent and 40.6 per cent. Reuters’ James Grubel observes that this is the result of “Morgan going one way, and tightening in Newspoll and Nielsen”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

949 comments on “Reuters poll trend: 55.0-45.0”

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  1. Big Blind Dave:

    Where was Henry at the station ? The new Smartrider Barriers would’ve stopped him doing anything on the platform proper and there is hardly any room in the foyer.

    Oh and this Lindsay thing is the 2007 version of Ralph Willis 🙂

  2. Nothing immoral or unethical ESJ, if Voter Boy was revealing personal stuff then it’s another matter. If we want to discuss morals, what about I R A Q, C H I L D R E N O V E R B O A R D, A W B, Lib pamphlets in Lindsay etc

  3. Yeah whatever VB,

    I think you will find last nights “discussions” were commenced by generic person and nath. I cant remember the first discussion and my most recent reference was about index patients not homosexuality per se, but name call if it makes you feel better!

  4. Will @ 841. If he does, he hasn’t said anything. But as Big Blind Dave correctly points out, I don’t think he’s said anything to me that’s top secret – it’s just a sense of how some people in the Lib camp are feeling, which is no more special that what we read in background briefings in the papers everyday.

  5. [Frank- Henry was in the bus tremnal just below the stairs up to the foyer.]

    And it’s the only entrance to the palkace as well – poor passengers, and all those school kids as well – he would’ve love seeing Hoons in the flesh – especially those from Guildford Grammer and Perth College 🙂

  6. Has any major party ever had such an extraordinary run of good fortune in an election campaign?

    Interest rate rise; RBA follow-up warning; Auditor General’s report, Tony Abbott’s mid-life crisis; climate change IPCC report; Lindsay racism scandal.. There are plenty I have forgotten too.


    Whomever it was who coined that, certainly the first time I had ever heard of it was on this site.

    Compliments, featured on the Chasers.

  8. Good to see Channel 9 Nightline is holding up the fort – no story regarding the Liberal leaflets in Lindsay. But what do they run first as the headline – “Not another Tampa?”. Laughable.

  9. Hmmm, driving around Subi/Leederville tonite in search of a bottle shop open beyond 8pm. Noticed a few servos had jacked their petrol prices up from $1.25 to $1.40 per litre.

    Now, who was it who said that high fuel prices were his worst political nightmare? Imagine if Saturday’s poll is really going to be on a knife edge, and how many mortagees will be filling their tanks Thurs/Fri, just after getting a letter from the bank passing on the interest rate rise?

    Actually, that comment revealed Howard’s complacency. His worst nightmare SHOULD have been, “A half-decent Opposition Leader coming along and showing my party room up for the motley crew of place-fillers, ideologues and borderline lunatics we really are,” but the petrol price remark was made when Beazley was still in charge, IIRC.

  10. Sportingbet now has two new better options: the percentage level of Labor’s two-party preferred vote, and which seat will be Australia’s most marginal post-election, in percentage terms.

    For instance, you can get $3.75 on Labor 2PP of 54 to 55.99 per cent.

  11. What the Pipers Say. Delroy.

    Rudd, meat axe Public Service.
    Keeping in touch with Ozz all over. Roadshow. Cabinet.
    Indonesians. West Timor. Tampa not 2. Luckily.

    SMH. Even baby’s can work it out.

    FIN. Open Government, Rudd, program objectives and implementation timetable.

  12. Flash @ 872

    Both Liberal and Labor phone polls are suggesting a vote less than 52% for Labor. $3.75 is a hopeless bet for Labor at 54%-56%. If you wish to make a good bet look at 50%-52%.

  13. Big Blind Dave
    Many thanks for your objective insight to WA @ 837. I’ve found most reports on WA very confusing but you have now clarified much for me. Thanks again.

  14. Crikey Whitey @866

    T’was moi, actually, before I changed my nic to KR (nice intials, eh?). Also my nic was too close to Crispy’s, it was Chrispydog.

    I did a little Melbourne Cup thing, and then some journo also picked it up a few days later, and now it’s part of the political lexicon.

    (Actually, the very first time I used it was in an email to my wife, a satire on various biographies, and Costello’s was under that name. )

  15. Crickey Whitey @ 874

    I agree I am a Liberal voter but would vote for Keating any day. The problem is Rudd is coming more and more across as Keating rather than Keating. Bring back Keating and you have my vote!!!!!

  16. More nasties, Exclusive Bretheren. Greens. Hobart. What the papers, say.

    Well, apologies for recollection, Kirribilli Removals.

    A most useful device. It suddenly occurred to me to test it against the poster.

    And, yeah!

    KR, is great. Nic, as in Boothby, too!

    Sorry that you have to work so early Sunday.

  17. Darn,

    According to Stephen voters are deserting Rudd due to the sub-prime lending market problems in the US. If anybody believes that one I guess they could also believe he has access to Labor and Liberal polls and also owns a bridge in Sydney Harbour he’d like to sell them.

  18. Oh no problem about working early on Sunday morning Crikey Whitey, as we will just party through the night, and then all the lads will head down to Kirribilli House about 5.30am, and shoo old Johnny out of the kitchen and make him do his ‘victory’ lap around the streets where children will be waiting to chuck old fruit at him.

    We may be a bit rough on some of the more delicate furnishings, but we’ll try not to get side-tracked by the wine cellar! Should be a real good day, actually.

  19. The Age has tomorrow’s stories up including one on the Lindsey slime. It appears from the website to be the top story – they don’t have the image of the front page yet. I’m guessing this story may be more than a one-day wonder, and might end up screwing up the remainder of the campaign for the Libs.

    There must be some pretty impressively deep skull-shaped dints in the desks at Liberal HQ after the last 6 weeks. I know that had I had a campaign like there’s I’d be up on the roof screaming abuse at whatever god or gods might be listening.

  20. anthony B, they couldn’t screw up anything more badly than they’ve already done, could they?

    It’s already waaay beyond my wildest imaginings, and I’m almost sad it will end so soon. Watching this rabble falling down and eating dirt is simply the greatest show on earth.

  21. Having read through the entire thread, there is so much to comment on and I’ve been drinking along the way. I can’t do quotes, so indents. . .

    [Is it just me or has anyone else got the hots for Miss Wong?]

    She is so so cute, no surprise she’s being pushed front and centre.

    Is she wearing a men’s Pierre Cardin suit?

    You mean the grey? it’s a Pierre Cardin (I’ve got the fat ugly man’s version)

    I often see her walking around in Adelaide in one.

    Hey, you’re stalking her, not me. . . If it’s the grey, it’s Cardin.

    Voter boy over the water at 601. Sounds real to me, but don’t believe the insiders know what they are talking about.

    Big Blind Bill, yes discipline is why you/we will win. Go Kevvie.

    Off to see if I can get on the Saturday night party thread.

  22. Paul K @ 884

    I really don’t care if you believe me or not. This is going to be close. 5 seat either way with the Coalition at an advanatge, just. Have both polls because my father is an ex politician.

  23. Stephen, ex-politicians get given internal polling? If so, why would you be discussing it on this website, surely it would be best to just let everyone assume Labor’s cruising to victory.

  24. I really don’t care if you believe me or not. This is going to be close. 5 seat either way with the Coalition at an advanatge, just. Have both polls because my father is an ex politician.

    That wouldn’t explain why you have both sets of polls. Party machines are super tight with internal polling data (unless they are leaking it on purpose), they’d be hesitant to give it to an ex-pollie on their own side let alone one from the other side.

  25. OMG, the ALP is going all out on the online ads. My MSN chat windows have a text link below them: Kevin Rudd: Protecting your rights at work. It seems the Libs are out of cash,as I haven’t seen a single Coalition ad online today (in the MSM anyway).

  26. [ I haven’t seen a single Coalition ad online today ]

    If you live in a marginal seat you may be getting a taped phone call from JWH. The Libs seem to think everyone is dying to get a call from Johnnie.

  27. ALP to pick up 2 seats in WA and hold onto its marginal seeats. Canning will be close and may be a third seat to fall.

    Forrest will be won by the Liberals. The Independent candidate (Noel Brunning) is not as popular as many commentators have made him out to be, he is actually hated by many in Bunbury. There are many reports that he treats his staff at his restaurant very badly, this ties in with his pro workchoices stance. He has refused to doorknock and hasn’t done any major events for weeks. He has no chance

    Liberals by around 3% with ALP second.

    Nb: Labor has put $355 million into Forrest, Lib’s have given $6 million for the Busselton jetty refit and two old tanks fro local RSL halls.

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