Reuters poll trend: 55.0-45.0

This week’s Reuters Poll Trend, a weighted aggregate of Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen, shows little change on the last result: Labor down 0.1 per cent on two-party preferred and 0.4 per cent on the primary vote, to 55.0 per cent and 46.3 per cent, and the Coalition up 0.1 per cent and 0.7 per cent, to 45.0 per cent and 40.6 per cent. Reuters’ James Grubel observes that this is the result of “Morgan going one way, and tightening in Newspoll and Nielsen”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

949 thoughts on “Reuters poll trend: 55.0-45.0”

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  1. more good headlines for the coalition once again. the last time they had a positive headline was the day after Howards launch…. and it lasted less than 24 hours.

  2. is Robb like one of those skits on Conan or Rove where they only have the lips moving of a person they are impersonating …. only his lips move … the rest of his face doesn’t move!!!

  3. Will someone please tell Robb that he has had a stroke (his facial palsy is worse than last time he was on LL). He needs to have a long rest.

  4. As for Parra? I stand by what I said earlier: Lib – gain.

    Ross Cameron’s stuff-up caused an aberration, but all in all, they’re the same kind of people who live in Lindsay – office workers too proud to be “working class”, deluded into thinking they ought to vote for the boss’s party.

    If I had any sort of paper betting stub (online punt of $200.00 on Lib victory) in my pocket, I’d be patting it.

    Money in the bank, comrades.

  5. Andrew

    The booths in the west of Parra that came from Greenway went 50/50 in 2004 but were an ALP landslide in State 2007

    Robinson has been a non event.

  6. It’s hard to bring myself to even think of owning a copy of the Tele… I live next door to the building where it (and the GG) are produced, so I’m constantly having to shower after rubbing shoulders with those journos when I pop out for a cuppa at the local cafe. Shudder, shudder.

  7. Did anyone see or hear Tony Jones’ 2 minute listing of the litany of blunders and errors that have occurred in the Liberal campaign? He started with the worm going south in the debate and then reeled them all off one by one in a staggeringly long question put to Andrew Robb, who looked totally bewildered in response. It was pure gold and one of the best moments of the campaign, for me. 🙂

  8. 750 / 716

    I hear Cowan and Swan are looking extremely shaky… Stirling will stay where it is… so that leaves Hasluck as the only gain against two losses…. and on the present polling that is no cert… I would LOVE to say differently so I hope my information is wrong…

  9. Is it just me or has anyone else got the hots for Miss Wong?

    Is she wearing a men’s Pierre Cardin suit?

    I often see her walking around in Adelaide in one.

  10. Are the Liberal Party merely the Australian branch of the Republican Party?

    They have been for quite a while.

    In an earlier thread someone reported that Americans were even handing out HTV cards at a prepoll booth. Didn’t say where but guessing in Sydney.

  11. VB story travells to him down an established path

    The firend he trusts is no doubt trustworthy, but would not have access to the polling in question or even a direct desription of it.

    These people do however spend much time in Canberra with thier member of parliament and build relationships with other “minders” as they are known.

    If Howard is having a tizzy about a Benelong poll, that will be known on a personal level by the minder. but also related to thier friends- usually in other states so as not too close to the source.

    This information is passed down well trodden and reliable paths and is supported by other stories and annecdotal evidence along the way e.g. actually I heard my minister discussing that with the other minster and they said XYZ.

    Staffers, particularly those not doing the constituent work form a sort of cooperative or union in many ways and information is power.

    I trust the information provided by VB at 601 to a greater extent than I distrust it.

    I could give the story as it stands within ALP, but disciple is a key to why we are flogging the piss outta the Libs at the moment if you haven’t noticed.

  12. 545
    Glen Says:
    Perhaps a Victorian leader is what the Libs need…

    A few of the Leading Lib Lights in Victoria:
    Aston: Chris Pearce. Secured $25000 for upgrade of cricket practice nets at Knox Gardens Reserve

    Corangamite: Stewart McArthur. 70-year-old former cocky who frightens electorate by circulating photographs of self in running shorts.

    Deakin: Phil Barresi. Monstered by 100-year-old when he turned up to hand over her certificate. ‘Who are you?’ she asked him, ‘and why are you speaking to me?’

    Dunkley: Bruce Billson. Minister for Veterans’ Affairs. Yawn.

    Goldstein: Andrew Robb. Master strategist.

    Higgins: Smirk.

    Indi: Sophie Mirabella. Arch-monarchist. Marriage in 2006 was military-themed.
    http://www.bordermail.com.au/news/bm/local/271868.html

    La Trobe: Jason Wood. Keen for Puffing Billy to be included on National Heritage List.

    McMillan. Russell Broadbent. Sang with the True Tones. In politics since 1984, has never won two consecutive elections.

    Menzies. Kevin Andrews. Minister for Mean. Mouth like a letterbox.

    Wannon. David Hawker. Sterling service as Speaker.

  13. IT is rubbish that “there is consensus across global markets that there will be a world wide recession” .. or whatever that fool Robb just said… really… might want to talk to the central bank in the UK who only this week said the economy would continue to slow… but would not go into recession…. please… anyone who does M & A, private equity or general securities work knows there is still heaps going on and whether or not the leveraged debt market picks up in the next 6-12 months there is enough in the equity markets to keep things rolling along… there is enough money floating around in just the alternative inestment markets from the growing pensions funds to overcome the next 6 months of slower debt market work

  14. Classic Joke

    A woman in a hot air balloon realizes she is lost. She lowers her altitude and spots a man fishing from a boat below.
    She shouts to him, “Excuse me, can you help me? I promised a friend I would meet him an hour ago, but I don’t know where I am.”
    The man consults his portable GPS and replies, “You’re in a hot air balloon, approximately 30 feet above a ground elevation of 2346 feet above sea level. You are at 31 degrees, 14.97 minutes north latitude and 100 degrees, 49.09 minutes west longitude.
    She rolls her eyes and says, “You must be a Liberal voter!”
    “I am,” replies the man. “How did you know?”
    “Well,” answers the balloonist, “everything you tell me is technically correct, but I have no idea what to do with your information, and I’m still lost. Frankly, you’re not much help to me.”
    The man smiles and responds, “You must be a Labour voter.”
    “I am,” replies the balloonist. “How did you know?”
    “Well,” says the man, “You don’t know where you are or where you’re going. You’ve risen to where you are, due to a large quantity of hot air. You made a promise that you have no idea how to keep, and now you expect me to solve your problem. You’re in exactly the same position you were in before we met but, somehow, now it’s my fault.”

  15. Ah, the sweet justice of it all. The liberals drowning in their own racist vomit in the dying days of the election campaign. Couldnt think of a more fitting end to this abysmal regime.

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