Galaxy: 52-48 in “marginals”

The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Galaxy has conducted a poll for SBS’s Insight program showing Labor leading 52-48 across a sample of marginal electorates: Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Blair, Moreton, Deakin, Stirling and Wakefield. The average margin in these seats is 3.5 per cent, so this suggests a combined swing of 5.5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

911 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 in “marginals””

Comments Page 17 of 19
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  1. [If she was Russian or Polish or Italian then you’d have problems but a Kiwi who gives a rats, it was a technical problem really.]

    Glen’s definition of “technical problem” – anything he disagrees with.

    With all due respect Glen, I trust our High Court to interpret the constitution more than you.

    [ShowsOn true but if the ALP had candidates who all knew the procedures then we wouldn’t be where we are. If by-elections are held it’s not our fault the ALP will have cost the taxpayers 1million each.]

    Incorrect. It would be the fault of the coalition for challenging their candidacy in courts.

    Face facts Glen, this is just symptoms of being sore losers. There policy is “vote for us, else we will take the other candidates to court”.

    This is straight out of the Republican Party’s Florida 2000 playbook.

  2. Put it to bed already with the rubbish about ineligible candidates this afternoon. I hasn’t happened before and it isn’t going to happen now, and leave Newhouse OUT of it. Read the following for so many who seem to have forgotten this from earlier in the last week and/or simply didn’t read it.

    (from the 19 November Age) “Reports surfaced last Wednesday that Mr Newhouse may have failed to resign as a paid member of the NSW Consumer, Trader and Tenancy Tribunal (CTTT) in time to run for Wentworth.

    Under electoral law, a candidate must not be receiving payment from any office of profit under the crown for at least 24 hours before the Australian Electoral Commission’s formal declaration of a nomination.

    But Mr Newhouse’s legal advice from John McCarthy QC was that from the moment he nominated as an election candidate, his resignation from the CTTT was in force.

    And, Mr Newhouse said, that under the Consumer Trader and Tenancy Tribunal Act resignation was automatic upon nominating to run as a candidate.”

  3. On Yvette D’ath (Petrie): she was or is on the board of the Qld Training and Employment Recognition Council. They meet once every 2 months. Though I’m not a lawyer, I can’t see how this would be an office of profit, according to the AEC guidelines. Cross her off the list. We could probably repeat this exercise with the others. I can’t be bothered as the story will disappear by tomorrow.

  4. LETP no no i was merely talking about the extremely close relationship between Australia and New Zealand, but yes you are correct.

    Maybe Zappia resigned as he should of then but not now?

  5. Last night we get the Costello and Howard love fest and today we are served up with this tripe from Andrew Robb. The Coalition’s election campaign has been nothing but a complete and utter shambles that has missed the mark completely.

  6. [LETP no no i was merely talking about the extremely close relationship between Australia and New Zealand, but yes you are correct.]

    Glen, Australia and New Zealand are two different countries.

  7. Yes, best to view it as the last pitiful act of desperadoes, and just laugh at them.

    I think we can all agree, left and right, that its effectively an admission of defeat. 🙂

    What a bunch of sore losers.

  8. Turlow

    Joe Hockey has become like the rest of them – he is up to all sorts of tricks with discrediting academics because he does not want the ramifications of the IR legislation known. Perhaps J Hockey was decent once but most of the former ones who aren’t as right wing have been coopted – Joe is playing some of the dirtiest games out. He has become deluded as the rest

  9. 799 Jim Says: November 20th, 2007 at 4:08 pm

    I never said the burden of proof was reversed. Just that you cant dismiss an allegation before any of the facts are known.

    You should look up the definition of libel some time.

  10. Can I just say that Sri Lanka put up a massive effort and were gallant in defeat?

    Unlike the Tories who will simply refuse to acknowledge the will of the people next Saturday.

  11. Kina, the newhouse thing has already been exposed as a crock. You know its just possible it was done as a toe dipping exercise. The Libs figured it didn’t backfire so they’d do their worst.

  12. “Mr Robb said the Liberal Party had not informed the AEC of its findings but said the issue of eligibility could be easily resolved if candidates produced the relevant documentation. ”

    If this is a storm in a teacup the I imgaine the Labor candidates can produce clear evidence exonerating them. If not, then you have to wonder.

    Unlike that ridiculous fool Newhouse, who produces a, wait for it,

    “undated letter….”

  13. This Rove Florida tactic looks terrible for the Libs and if ppl think that Labor will be in trouble because of it – youre wrong, it will just make ppl more inclined to vote labor so that there is NO question of the result.

    It’s OVER GLEN, Own it.

  14. The Libs have been pretty damn slack 😉 Mark Vaile complained about the lack of clarity about regarding “office of profit under the crown” back in 1993. The Libs have had 14 years to fix the situation, and haven’t done a thing:

    From Mark Vailes first speech to parliament:
    http://www.aph.gov.au/house/members/firstspeech.asp?id=SU5

    “I have had the honour of serving my local community as a member of the Greater Taree City Council for the past eight years, three of which I served as deputy mayor. During this period I became acutely aware of the desperate situation of our arterial roads and in particular the Pacific Highway. I have therefore developed a strong affinity with local government, and I believe it has a definite and important role to play in the structure of Australian politics. I believe that local government should be given constitutional recognition.

    Because of my membership of local government at the time the recent Federal election was called, I was put in a position of having to resign that position because of an ambiguity under section 44 of the Constitution; that is, the lack of a clear description as to who holds an office of profit under the Crown. I can tell you, Mr Deputy Speaker, that being an alderman in local government would be better described as being an office of loss under the Crown, not one of profit.

    As a result of this ambiguity, and so as not to jeopardise my candidature for the Federal election, I and seven other members of local government in New South Wales resigned our positions causing expensive by elections which ratepayers everywhere cannot afford. I note that five of us have attained seats in this House. I know my fellow members share my concerns on this issue and I urge the Attorney General (Mr Lavarch) to clarify the ambiguous nature of section 44 of the Constitution, as I believe its current interpretation to be quite discriminatory.

    The ambiguous nature of section 44 was emphasised last week with the Australian Electoral Commission now being challenged on a series of grounds relating to section 44. One of these included a possible breach of that section by a paid councillor of the city of Coburg which the petitioner claims to be an office of profit under the Crown. This area of the Constitution urgently needs to be clarified.

    My own council by election was held last Saturday at great cost to ratepayers who should not have had to bear this unnecessary expense when the situation should have been clarified by the Attorney General immediately following the High Court decision on 25 November 1992. I therefore call on the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Community Services (Mr Howe) to consider reimbursement to all local councils which have had the costly burden of this ambiguity.”

  15. I’m still surprised Labor is taking this long to respond. They need to respond fast and crushingly. They need to belittle the attempt, and starve it of oxygen. Rudd’s been good at this all year, he needs to do it fast, whether it’s true or not.

  16. The US 2000 election was one of the turning points in history. If that utter halfwit Cheney and his hand puppet Bush had not been appointed the world would be a far far far far far far better place now. IN inumerable ways.

  17. Spongiform
    my point is if you did a google search saying “Rudd the Onanistic Sack of Excrement” do you expect the search engine to generate positive stories?

  18. [I’m still surprised Labor is taking this long to respond. They need to respond fast and crushingly. They need to belittle the attempt, and starve it of oxygen. Rudd’s been good at this all year, he needs to do it fast, whether it’s true or not.]

    To me this just shows how desperate the Liberals wanted to knock out the story of WorkChoices Mark II. They must’ve worried that it had the greatest potential to turn a loss into a landslide.

  19. Glen and ShowsOn: Didn’t the ONP Senator initially elected actually have dual citizenship with England? She was declared ineligible because of that. So Glen saying if she was a kiwi then who gives a rats ar$e then you you really are a tool.

  20. Ratfink says no ones complained to him about Workchoices on the campaign trail. Thats a bit like Lord Nelson putting the telescope to his blind eye. Nelson however was performing an act of bravery whilst the Ratfink is a coward of the highest order.

  21. 799 Jim

    We can dismiss the allegation because:
    1. The Libs have a history of making up this lying bull*%$t in the last week of an election.
    2. 13 candidates being ineligible is not credible.
    3. It is obvious to everyone here (including I suspect Glen) that this is a slander/diversionary tactic and nothing more. There can be no other rational reason for bringing it up before the election considering that it can’t be tested until after the vote.

    Get over it.

  22. 819
    ShowsOn Says:
    November 20th, 2007 at 4:13 pm
    [It worked in 2000 for the Republicans ShowsOn ;)]

    Democracy is more important than winning all the time.

    I lived in the US and had to live under the results of that horrible decision. One of the many reasons I left that country and moved here. The Libs aren’t going to pull something like this and get away with it here. Right wing parties aren’t BORN to rule folks, the other parties get in too sometimes. Will the right wingers get out of the mud already? Sheeessh …..

  23. Jim, read back. I did just that (different rude words) and when I looked into the relevant hits (the ones that had anything to do with aus politics), the rude words were being applied to Howard.

    btw.. I’m not attacking you. If you persist in being personal I’ll simply ignore you.

  24. I did a Google search on “Sandy Street”, the SC who has provided the libs with legal advice on this issue. Nothing comes up other than the Newhouse matter. It is extraordinary that a case of his has never been quoted somewhere on the net.

    There is something really dodgy about this claim. I hope the ALP has the ruthlessness to go after the libs on this.

  25. “790
    Swing Lowe Says:
    November 20th, 2007 at 4:06 pm
    It’s odd – both Sky News and the SMH are focusing on the Newhouse questions without talking much (or at all in regards to Sky) about the 12 other candidates. It’s only the Herald Sun and the News Ltd papers that are talking about the 12 others.”

    I wonder then if this was a pre-arranged Liberal party – Murdoch papers attempt at wining back votes for the Liberal party? We will know by the way News Ltd play it out. It should be obvious by the way they try to play it out.

    (AND if so – I got news for News Ltd – no more users or buyers who are Labor supporters across Australia. A movement is not far from being formed ‘Labor votes don’t buy murdoch papers’. Depending on their behaviour in this election’)

  26. Julie

    I’m glad you are taking Newhouse’s lawyer’s word for it. Must be true then, huh.

    I cannot believe that any lawyer (well versed in how critical such things are) could inadvertently not date a letter of resignation.

    I mean, how many more important letters would this tool write in his lifetime?

  27. It is unclear and untested whether either of holding a paid local council position or being employed by a university consitutes an “office of profit”.

    Ths not only would the Libs need to mount legal challenges to try and overturn a democratic election, they would need to mount speculative test cases to do so.

  28. The Libs campaign has been ‘awful’ and since the great campagin laucnh the libs have been in damage control. Everyday there is something else. This Robb distraction is a pretty poor attempt to grab a headline. Unfortunately the libs are gone and they just cant bring themselves to accept it.

  29. Forget the polls – this confirms the Libs are in trouble.

    Still Rudd has to respond, which is all the Libs want – they need to take away the headlines from the Work Choices II story.

    Geez, when did Australia become part of Florida?

  30. NB @ 800
    hahahahh, sorry for teasing you and all 🙂
    On a positvie note, BetFair has slashed Labor’s odd futher 1.25 / 4.8 from
    1.28 / 4.3 this morning.
    For now, this $1.25 is the highest (across the markets) we can get on Labor.
    $4.8 is the highest the Libs can get.

  31. keep pecking away there Jim… i reckon there’s an extra 2PP percentage point for the ALP in this.

    The smear campaign of the liberals is the last thing people are going to be thinking about when they head into the ballot box.

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