Galaxy: 52-48 in “marginals”

The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Galaxy has conducted a poll for SBS’s Insight program showing Labor leading 52-48 across a sample of marginal electorates: Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Blair, Moreton, Deakin, Stirling and Wakefield. The average margin in these seats is 3.5 per cent, so this suggests a combined swing of 5.5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

911 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 in “marginals””

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  1. [Glen and ShowsOn: Didn’t the ONP Senator initially elected actually have dual citizenship with England? She was declared ineligible because of that. So Glen saying if she was a kiwi then who gives a rats ar$e then you you really are a tool.]

    That’s what he seems to be saying!? He doesn’t understand why Australian politicians should only be Australians!

    Bizarre.

  2. Lawyer are you Pi?

    Maybe you would know the first thing about “defamation”, and then you would know that no of the elements exist here.

    Idiot hour at the bludger….

  3. Jim, don’t let the door hit you in the arse on the way out. You should be fine on the way back to power…in ten years time there will probably be sliding sensor doors everywhere powered by windfarms run by highly educated union bosses.

  4. I ran the 1992 Wills By-Election (22 candidates) won by Phil Cleary. He was challenged on the same grounds as this and the result was over turned in the Federal Court.

    In the light of that well documented precedent, if Labor has fallen for the same three card trick, I will be very disappointed. It’s almost inexcusable.

    But it shouldn’t make any difference in the long run. The same candidates will be eligible to run again in any by-elections that result and in my opinion would be just as likely to increase their majority. The general public will rightly see it as just a technicality and will probably be pissed off at the unnecessary inconvenience and expense a defeated Howard government is prepared to put them through to try and cling on.

    But it’s the distraction that’s so annoying, at a time when Labor has all the running and the wheels are really coming off for Howard. And you never quite know how the slimy little bastard will try to spin it. There’s also the possibility that whether Labor has won or not might not be finalised on Saturday night. A real pain in the arse.

  5. This is the long awaited rabbit folks.

    I am with LTEP and Andrew on this blog but this just prove we are all doomed regardless of the outcome of this election.

    Unless every ALP candidate can satisfy Andrew Robb that he or she is eligible, then they are cactus. It is Andrew’s way or the highway in 21st Century Australia.

  6. 837 Jim,

    It is WRITTEN into the Consumer Agency by-laws for the department he worked at. Since it is codefied in written word, it is very easy to take that for face value.

  7. Of course what this shows is the extent to which the Liberals will go to pursue a candidate standing against them. If you own a company they will obtain your company returns and trawl through them, they will hire private investigators to follow you, I expect they will access your ASIO profile, they will access any Centrelink records, they will access all available records.

    In the eyes of the Liberal Party it is a crime to exercise your right in this democracy to stand for Public Office, unless of course you’re a Liberal.

  8. ShowsOn i don’t remember disputing the fact that those standing for seats in the Parliament of Australia need to be Australian citizens for obvious reasons so i don’t know why you’re slandering me?

    I merely said that though separate the differences between Australia and New Zealand are minute. This does not mean Kelly was eligible she wasn’t and she fought the decision and the by election and won.

  9. More Liberal dirty tricks now they are using ‘Your Rights at Work’

    The Australian Electoral Commission is investigating a pro-Liberal Party advertisement which used the union slogan “your rights at work”.

    Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry vice-president John White authorised the advertisement which appeared in both the Launceston Examiner and Burnie Advocate last week.

    The ad uses the same font and colour employed by the ACTU in its anti-Work Choices advertising.

    “A complaint has been lodged and an investigation is underway,” a spokeswoman for the electoral commission said.

    http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/aec-investigating-proliberal-ads-in-tas/20071120-1bl3.html

  10. C’mon. New topic people. This issue will provoke a net vote change of pretty close to zero in the wider community. It will get a mention on the news tonight, but only politics junkies will give a sh*t because it’s just politicians squabbling again.

  11. Meanwhile, at the ranch, Rudd has announced he would seek 4-yr fixed terms (I’d vote against it just because the last 3 years of Howard was too long). He is also announcing he would release his own ministerial code of conduct before the election (I’m guessing tomorrow so he can use it with his Opposition Leader’s address and on the 7:30 Report).

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Rudd-would-seek-fouryear-fixed-terms/2007/11/20/1195321764907.html

  12. 856 John Hunt, it does rather remind you of the ‘free and fair’ elections in Iran, where all the moderate candidates were struck off the list by the body that assesses their ‘virtue’.

    something like 8000 candidates were removed like this in order to guarantee the hard liners would cling to power.

  13. Julie
    laws are WRITTEN also. I suppose there is no such think as statutory interetation.
    The laws just mean what they say, right.
    My god, how simple life is.

  14. As an aside, I see no reason why, in a globalised world, when a large percentage of the population holds dual citizenship, that MPs should have to adhere to this rule.

  15. Glen keep stirring things up.

    You have got a real feeding frenzy going on here.

    Let’s hope the Labor party stays on message tonight.

    Pi, I am enjoying your glib comments too

  16. People, what do you expect from a party where over 70% of the front bench is run by lawyers? It’s no wonder lawyers and politicians aren’t held in high regard, a failed lawyer become a politician.

  17. From the 15 November The Australian:

    Note:

    1. Linda Burney is the Fair Trading Minister so in charge of this department. She knows the rules and laws. Buck stops with the boss.
    2. McCarthy is the lawyer but has done nothing else other than repeat what the law already states.

    ********

    LABOR recruit George Newhouse says he has legal advice that unequivocally proves he is a valid candidate for the federal Sydney seat of Wentworth.

    Mr Newhouse has been at the centre of controversy over the legitimacy of his candidacy for the federal election.

    Allegations arose on Wednesday that he may have failed to resign as a paid member of the NSW Consumer, Trader and Tenancy Tribunal (CTTT) in time to run for Wentworth.

    Under electoral law, a candidate must not be receiving payment from any office of profit under the crown for at least 24 hours before the Australian Electoral Commission’s formal declaration of a nomination.

    The commission declared the nominations on November 2.

    Fair Trading Minister Linda Burney’s office has said Mr Newhouse’s resignation letter was date stamped by the office on November 2, but the resignation was effective from October 22.

    Mr Newhouse said today that advice obtained from John McCarthy QC showed that the moment he nominated, his resignation from the CTTT was in force.

    He also said his resignation letter was no longer an issue.

    “That letter is absolutely irrelevant,” Mr Newhouse said.

    A memorandum of the legal advice from Mr McCarthy states Mr Newhouse resigned from the CTTT before October 30.

    Mr McCarthy also expressed in the memo that state legislation provided that a government employee’s position became vacant if the person was nominated for election as a member of parliament of the commonwealth.

    “In other words, by force of statute law alone, Mr Newhouse forfeited both those offices as soon as he was nominated,” the memo states.

    “In the facts and circumstances briefed to me, I can firmly state that the nomination of Mr Newhouse is legally valid pursuant to the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 as amended.”

    Mr Newhouse said the advice given to him proved that his candidacy for the seat of Wentworth had been valid since he nominated in October.

    “That opinion is unqualified, so I think it answers all questions on this matter,” Mr Newhouse said.

  18. “849
    mad cow Says:
    November 20th, 2007 at 4:22 pm
    kina, when this is all said and done, the anti-workchoices movement will have to find a new goal. How bout expose news limited?

    I have wonderded if the only way to stop murdoch papers being flag wavers for the Liberal party (epescially at election times) is for Labor voters to simply to punish them in the hip pocket and dump them both on-line and dead-tree version.
    I guess a slogan ‘Labor voters don’t by murdoch papers’ or some such could get some momentum – especially if they were identified as attempt to stop Labor wining the election. Probably lots of Labor supporters are observing the behaviour of murdoch papers.

  19. There is quite a bit of interesting reading material on the “office of profit” issue online. I’m no expert but from reading the Research Note no.21 it seems that the Libs might have their work cut out if they attempt to challenge Zappia on this basis. Don’t know what else they have dug up but you can bet it’s going to be tenuous at best…

    Research Note no. 21 2002-03
    Candidacy of Local Councillors for Federal Office
    http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rn/2002-03/03rn21.htm

    Section 44 of the Constitution
    E-Brief: Online Only issued March 2004;
    http://www.aph.gov.au/library/intguide/POL/Section44.htm

  20. Well looks like Neale and Zappia have evidence to show they resigned ahead of the 2 November deadline:

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22791352-601,00.html

    ALP is already running the ‘desperate to hold onto power line’ judging by Neale’s comments.

    Seriously, this is a high risk roll of the dice by the Libs – Aussies don’t tend to be fond of anyone who tries to win on a technicality rather than in a good clean fight. Regardless of whether they have a case under the Constitution, it still looks like a ‘trick’ by the Libs and does reinforce the tricky image.

    Also, appropos to a few comments: the AEC never investigates whether candidates are eligible to run under s44 of the Constitution, they ask candidates to declare that they are eligible and accept this on face value.

  21. 865
    Will Says:
    November 20th, 2007 at 4:29 pm
    Meanwhile, at the ranch, Rudd has announced he would seek 4-yr fixed terms (I’d vote against it just because the last 3 years of Howard was too long). He is also announcing he would release his own ministerial code of conduct before the election (I’m guessing tomorrow so he can use it with his Opposition Leader’s address and on the 7:30 Report).

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Rudd-would-seek-fouryear-fixed-terms/2007/11/20/1195321764907.html

    GOOD on Rudd, release positive polices and have constructive things to say rather than smear and mud, I will be so glad to see the backside of Saturday and the rodent, I will proudly wear my Kevin07 shirt the rest of the week even though that means handwashing it each evening …….. Liberals make my blood boil

  22. Is Robb gone mad? Doesn’t he remember what happened to Lindsay?

    As Poll Bludger says:

    Jackie Kelly unseating Labor’s Ross Free with an 11.9 per cent swing. Free secured a re-match on a technicality and was rewarded for his petulance with a further 6.8 per cent drop in his primary vote and another 5 per cent swing to Kelly.

  23. @877

    Yes this whole intentional disraction doesn’t matter, if anythihng it will make ppl make SURE that Labor gets in with a big majority. Anyway all in all, given the polls and the palpable feeling the community it seems that anything up to 13 seats would not alter fate.

  24. Wow, this thread’s gotten pretty bitchy while I was away…I’m with Aswhley, new topic quickly, we’re wasting William’s precious bandwidth. Rudd’s Ministerial Accountability policy is something we can all look forward to in the next couple of days.

  25. John Hunt Is A Coward @868,
    I bet Howard’s cabinet will whisper:
    “Good riddance! It take you a year or so to do the right thing for the Coalition”
    🙂

  26. Julie,

    your ignorance is nothing short of astounding. Do a google search of John McCarthy QC . Do some reading and then tell me us why McCarthy, in an unbiased impartial way should be believed without challenge.

    Just stick to giving us those little smily emoticons. They better reveal the inner ‘workings’ of your mind.

  27. I see that the Libs are using websites are their source of evidence. So damn anyone who’s previous employer hadn’t gotten around to updating the website. I guess that when your resign because your plan to run for parliament, you need to put in your resignation letter that ‘please remove me immediately from the website’.

  28. No Guido @ 884, desperate. He’s hoping to dissuade people from voting for these ALP candidates at all by scaring them into thinking there’ll be a by-election. I’m not sure if in Jackie Kelly’s case her ineligibility was known prior to the elction or only uncovered afterwards.

  29. Betfair ALP price at an all time low with $100,000 on ALP looking for someone to take the other side.

    97.3 hours until counting starts.

  30. Guido at #884 is right – there will be no by elections because if the electorate has installed an ALP candidate once they will do it again in a heartbeat to punish a sore loser. The technicalities are irrelevant.

  31. My take on this latest trick is that’s it is likely to swing a lot of educated Liberal leaning types across to the ALP (in seats like North Sydney) but that it will net lose the ALP votes in the battler type suburbs because they’ll accept the “it shows how incompetent the Labor Party is” spin from the Libs.

  32. Ruddock missing? No, he is working on a new law which will make it illegal for union members to stand for parliament. That’ll teach those Union bosses who the real boss is…

  33. (Geez, when I left things were cruising along…Last time I take my daughter to the doctors!!!)

    love this from Neal (I mean if Neal can put this down easily..geez!)

    One of the twelve candidates named, Belinda Neal, who is running with against road minister Jim Lloyd in the NSW seat of Robertson, (margin 6.9 per cent) said she had resigned long ago.

    “I resigned well before nominations,” she told The Australian.

    “All this demonstrates is how desperate Jim Lloyd and John Howard are to hang on to power.

    “This is not going to stop me working with Kevin Rudd to stop Peter Costello bring on another round of industrial relation changes ’’

    A second candidate, Tony Zappia who is running in Makin where the sitting Liberal is retiring with a 1 per cent margin also refuted the claims.

    A spokesman said the Mr Zappia wrote the South Australian Government on October 18, the letter was received on the Oct 22, the resignation took effect on Oct 26 and Mr Zappia submitted his nomination on Oct 29

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