Galaxy: 52-48 in “marginals”

The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Galaxy has conducted a poll for SBS’s Insight program showing Labor leading 52-48 across a sample of marginal electorates: Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Blair, Moreton, Deakin, Stirling and Wakefield. The average margin in these seats is 3.5 per cent, so this suggests a combined swing of 5.5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

911 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 in “marginals””

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  1. Which, at 81 seats to Labor, pretty much confirms what many people have been saying for the past few weeks. Very interesting…

  2. Here’s a link to the SBS Insight program page, though there are no more details on the poll, just that it’s covered by the program tonight:
    http://news.sbs.com.au/insight/the_deciders__part_2__135201

    Also on the website, the transcript & VOD for the program’s forum with young voters in Moreton (where I live):
    http://news.sbs.com.au/insight/my_vote_the_young_voters_of_moreton_132832

    Warning: anyone bothered by last week’s 4 Corners might find this depressing too!

  4. Malcom Fraser endorses the ALP in all but name 🙂 He doesn’t say ALP in the editorial but there isn’t one place where he says he likes what the Coaltion are doing. He says “The environment is a major issue. It has been significantly debated but I do not believe either party has set out a comprehensive plan to make sure that Australian water is used effectively” and that is about the only place where he points out that he differs from the ALP in his opinions. Everything else is scathing of the governments policies – “The new security laws have virtually turned ASIO into a secret police. That is not the Australia we know and love.”

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/voting-to-restore-the-values-we-once-held-dear/2007/11/19/1195321692334.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

  5. Latest news: PM to make sole campaign visit to northern Tasmania

    Prime Minister John Howard is making his first and only campaign visit to Tasmania today.

    Mr Howard had a full day of campaigning yesterday in Perth and the visit was one of the few times he has ventured into marginal Labor seats.

    Today he is headed to northern Tasmania, the first time he has hit the campaign trail in the state since the election was called five weeks ago.

    The Liberals cling to the electorate of Braddon with just a 1.1 per cent margin and the stalling of the Commonwealth takeover of the local Mersey Hospital has not helped the Coalition’s campaign.

    In neighbouring Bass, the approval of the Gunns pulp mill will be a key factor in the electoral outcome there.

    Despite the long anticipation over his visit, Mr Howard is only expected to remain in the state for the day.

    Federal Labor leader Kevin Rudd will start his day in Sydney.

    Nationals leader Mark Vaile will be in the central Queensland city of Gladstone, in his his fourth visit to the Flynn electorate since the campaign began.

  7. “6
    BrissyRod Says:
    November 20th, 2007 at 6:42 am
    God bless Malcolm Fraser.

    We’ll take him. The Libs can have Courtice. ”

    Funny – that’s virtually word-for-word (seriously) what I thought when I saw Fraser’s piece. I guess the only reason why he hasn’t explictly endorsed Rudd is that he doesn’t want to be expelled from the party, which is fair enough.

    It’s funny how things change. Yet I can’t imagine saying similar things about Howard in 30 years time.

  8. Thirty years ago I could not have imagined the warmth I feel for Malcolm Fraser these days … guess it’s the power of the rodent to bring (other) people together …

  10. Well the Rodent does make Fraser look like an enlightened, progressive individual, worthy of the praise of any decent social democrat….IMHO

  11. It’s funny how colition luminaries become reasonable people after they’ve left politics – Fraser, Chaney, McFee, Sinclair et al.

  14. BTW is it just me, or is this a really odd selection of seats. Average margin 3.5, yes, but ranges from 0.7 to 5.7. Does it really tell us anything except Labor is ahead, as always? I’d like to see some per-seat breakdown of some of these marginal polls though I suppose the samples would be too small to be meaningful.

    BTW in Moreton (oh what joy to be marginal!) I got the two-faced Lib glossy on the weekend; don’t know if anyone has pointed this out, but I can’t see any authorisation, even with my glasses on …

    Then Monday had a small leaflet “LABOR CAN’T MANAGE MONEY” in a fetching black & red scheme, with the “ANTI-BUSINESS UNION LABOR” map from the two-faced one – wish they wouldn’t shout so much …

    But also on Monday, a posted letter from Joe Ludwig along with a Labor tax plan leaflet with table of weekly savings. This is probably a smart pitch as “what’s in it for me” never seems to go out of fashion.

  15. The difference between Malcolm Fraser and the current sad lot is that Malcolm was a LIBERAL, the current incumbent is anything but. Hopefully the world will soon emerge from the nightmare of the neo-cons, Bush and Cheney will be impeached and sanity can return.

  18. Basil Fawlty Says:
    November 20th, 2007 at 7:11 am
    Hopefully the world will soon emerge from the nightmare of the neo-cons, Bush and Cheney will be impeached and sanity can return.

    Hopefully the neo-cons will be chucked out of the Liberal party and the liberals will once more take control.

  19. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/20/2095273.htm?section=justin

    “Joyce to cross floor on IR
    Posted 23 minutes ago

    Maverick Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce says he would vote for Labor’s industrial relations changes if Labor is elected to government in Saturday’s federal election.

    Senator Joyce is quoted in The Australian newspaper saying he sees little difference between Labor’s proposals and those of the Government.

    His vote would mean Labor could have its new IR laws introduced almost immediately, rather than waiting until the next intake of senators take their seats in July next year.”

  21. BV @ 18 – Barnaby Joyce is not to be trusted to cross any floor on any matter. He’s just a mouthful of say anything and do nothing. When the time came for him to put his money where his mouth is, you can bet your last dollar he’ll find some little difference to vote against Labor’s new IR laws.

  23. What with Joyce and Fraser, the forced love in between Howard and Costello (see Michelle Grattan for a devastating appraisal of this http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/bmichelle-grattanb/2007/11/19/1195321694821.html) and the back story about dissent in the ranks towards Turnbull, this has the feel of a campaign where the wheels are well and truly coming off in the last days. One can hardly imagine what pratfall will occur next.

  27. …… and in a trend of continued bad news for the coalition after yesterday (Turnbull exposed on the 7:30 report) Downer has been exposed this morning in regards to the AWB scandal …

    I wouldn’t get too excited about this.

    The guy who’s “blown the whistle” is an ex-DFAT official, who left the PS to work for the mystrerious car fuel additive company Firepower (itself a beneficiary of much DFAT largesse in the form of grants), but who was sacked after child sex allegations (which he vehemently denies) were levelled against him.

    It’s all allegation and innuendo of course, nothing proved and mostl likely nothing will be, but to add another allegation – about AWB and Downer’s knowledge – on top of this steaming heap of unsubstiantiated charge and counter charge stretches one’s capacity to follow any story through to its conclusion without getting diverted from the main point at any of about a thousand possible exit points..

  28. “23
    wysiwyg Says:
    November 20th, 2007 at 7:44 am
    VBOTW: true one can hardly imagine, but Tony Abbott will probably have something to do with it”

    Well if he feels compelled to once more insult a dying man, he’s always got Howard.

  30. I’ve given up Radio National, because I can’t stand Fran Kelly’s blatant pro Howard bias, or that smarmy git James Carlton who does the newspaper segment.

  31. Sez Charles at 17: “Hopefully the neo-cons will be chucked out of the Liberal party and the liberals will once more take control.”

    Not if Pal Gerry has got anything to do with it, Charles. Here is El Rodente’s backdoor mouthpiece’s impassioned plea concerning the civil liberties of ASIO functionaries. If only ordinary Australians would understand that Secret Police are people too! Under current Australian Law, spying upon and forcefully depriving innocents of their liberty is just part of their job.

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/what-about-civil-liberties-of-police/2007/11/19/1195321695078.html

  32. … and where are the breathless reports on the daily colors of the leaders’ ties?

    I tell you… this isn’t a proper election until journalists can look at the serious issues confronting the country.

  33. Fran Kelly is an absolute disgrace! I have written an email expressing my anger and after her flunky performance this morning will be making it a formal complaint.

  34. Go Barnaby! If the Nationals are to survive they actually need to reassess who their core constituency are. I’d like to see a progressive rural party in Australia because the ALP still don’t understand rural areas particularly well.

  35. Hey all I received a letter from Petro, but it was from his office and it was purely election crap. It was dated Nov 14, so it was after the Libs launch. Is he allowed to do that at this late stage? If not who do I send this to?

  36. Enemy Combatant Says:
    November 20th, 2007 at 7:54 am

    Not if Pal Gerry has got anything to do with it, Charles. Here is El Rodente’s backdoor

    I see little hops also. It labor do a reasonable job of running the economy ( and I think they will), then most of the Liberal funds will come from the exclusive brethren, god help the Liberal party.

  41. “Business is Rudd-ready”

    “My soundings of business leaders and financial market players over the past six weeks suggests there is no fear over a Kevin Rudd victory this week, which is confirmed by the total lack of interest in the election from the sharemarket.

    In fact if anything there is a growing view that a Labor victory would be the best way to kick-start economic reform, an idea supported by Rupert Murdoch.”

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Business-is-Rudd-ready-94R4N?OpenDocument

  42. 34 Will, I’ve received 2 letters from Gary Hardgrave on parliamentiary letterhead and with no authorisation (1 just before, 1 just after, the launch). However this seems to be legal from what I can dredge up from the AEC website (not necessarily right, of course).

    But you can always hand it in to Ken Harvey’s campaign office and see what they make of it…

  45. Replace Fran Kelly with Geraldine Doogue, and you’d have a much more balanced, intelligent breakfast program. Send Fran off to Sky News, she’d be right at home there.

  47. “43
    Ave it 07 Says:
    November 20th, 2007 at 8:18 am
    Coalition 4% behind on a Tuesday
    4% ahead on election day!”

    Ah, I see the pubs have closed early in Loserville, and so you’re back home once more…

    Removed your ASBO tagging device yet?

  48. Ave it 07 – so how would you like to deliver your ‘we were wrong’ statement on Sunday? Or for a higher amusement factor, please explain why 10 months of polling will be reversed in 4 days.
    It’s a fickle straw of hope you’re clinging to. I held it tightly myself in 1996. “Oh yes, no worries, Keating can pull this off, he did in 1993 after all…”
    Sounds like where you are about now!

  49. Interesting that this bag of seat includes Stirling where mythology, or was it Galaxy, has given Labor little chance lately. If we take that out, it’s a healthy swing of 6%. Or maybe the pundits and the polls have WA wrong.
    ‘Labor View from Broome’

  50. “Fran Kelly is an absolute disgrace! I have written an email expressing my anger and after her flunky performance this morning will be making it a formal complaint.”

    That really is Sad BV….do you have nothing better to do?? There are plenty of left leaning journos did you email them as well??

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