Galaxy: 52-48 in “marginals”

The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Galaxy has conducted a poll for SBS’s Insight program showing Labor leading 52-48 across a sample of marginal electorates: Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Blair, Moreton, Deakin, Stirling and Wakefield. The average margin in these seats is 3.5 per cent, so this suggests a combined swing of 5.5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

911 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 in “marginals””

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  1. 889,

    I have more education than you have probably seen in your lifetime. The lawyer was REPEATING what the written law already stated and what Ms. Burney had already said as well. Give it a rest already.

  2. There’s nothing in this ineligibility story. It broke two hours ago and already two of the candidates have said there’s nothing in it. Just smear and obfuscation.

  3. Richard Glover talking to Annabel Crabb just now on 702 raised the “Robb 13” but she wasn’t much interested. Glover said one possible take is that LNP is expecting to lose those seats.

  4. Election 2007 Play List (In no particular order)

    Express yourself, Eric B and Rakim
    Another one bites the dust, Queen
    The final countdown, Europe
    Wont get fooled again, The Who
    Blue sky mine, Midnight Oil
    Should I stay or should I go, The Clash
    Changes, David Bowie
    Gone daddy gone, Violent Femes
    One angry dwarf and 200 solemn faces, Ben Folds Five
    Power in a union, Billy Bragg
    Killing in the name, Rage Against the Machine
    Bottom Line, Big Audio Dynamite
    From little things big things grow, Paul Kelly
    Beautiful day, U2
    Am I ever gonna see your face again, The Angels (including the extra lyrics)

    And finally….

    Non, je ne regrette rien, The immortal Edith Piaf

  5. These claims of invalid enrollments will turn out to be a furphy, no doubt. That the Liberals think such claims could help them only serve to demonstrate how out of touch they really are. People are sick to the back teeth of gamesmanship, point-scoring, innuendo, malice and slur. The Liberals may think this will help them shore up support among their true-believers. But among the rest of the electorate, it is just more dirty play and yet another reason to ignore the dismal spectacle that passes for politics, coalition-style. The coalition really must think the public are idiots – a fatally wrong assumption on their part, as they will soon discover.

  6. Possum got it in one – as usual

    If you have any poo – fling it now
    Filed under: smear — Possum Comitatus @ 3:00 pm

    I was wondering when it would come to this.

    Forget the usual suspects talking about the closeness of the election result, when a party pulls a high risk play like alleging 13 Labor candidates are ineligible to stand for Parliament, and foreshadow legal challenges after the election – you know things are looking bleak.

  7. The natur of the story is that Robb is merely saying that up to 13 candidates could be ineligible. He means that in the sense 13 of them previously held “offices of profit under the Crown”, but he has no knowledge of whether or not they had resigned beforehand.

    Deliberately intended to mislead obviously by suggesting that there was some evidence when there clearly is not.

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