Sky News reveals tomorrow’s Newspoll will show Labor leading 54-46; primary vote Labor 46 per cent (down two points), Coalition 41 per cent (up one). Details to follow.
UPDATE: Preliminary article at The Australian.
UPDATE 2: The Australian’s graphic here.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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This secret WorkChoices plan is going to hound Howard for his final days. He will get zero traction on anything till polling day. What a shame.
OK what does the message mean?
The 1300(odd) people sampled, giving a TPP result of 54-46, can be shown to demonstrate a national distribution of 51.3 to 56.7 ALP TPP in 95% of samples conducted.
What that means is that there is a chance of Labors national aggregated TPP vote being 51.3 That is not enough to secure victory.
I hear a word of hubris and the Can ‘o’ whupass will be opened.
So we have a 53/47 newspoll in the marginals and 54/46 overall – might be a few holes in the firewall
If History is a guide then next Saturday the ALP will come in with between 54.5-55.1 therefore the ALP should win between 85-95 seats.
My prediction ALP 54.6 – Lib/Nats 45.4
Could the Oz Newspoll article pump up the Tories anymore? Labors primary lowset since August, Tories primary near the high watermark, Howard faces a formidable challenge. Blah, blah, blah Crikey-how to polish a turd. (I wouldnt write Sri Lanka off just yet either).
WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN WHEN THE “SCARY UNION BOSSEZ” ADS HAVE TO STOP TOMORROW NIGHT???
P.S.
BOOOO!!!!
Authorised by B Loughnane, Liberal Party Canberra
Five more sleeps, five more sleeps, five more sleeps…..
Come on Kevvie……..
I was kinda hoping for a 59-41, but beggars can’t be choosers.
Why haven’t we had rogue poll in the Libs favour? We’ve had a 58-42 and a 59-41, but no 51-49 or 50-50
Swing Lowe – ta – for some reason I thought the last results was 54-46 also
Diogenes you left out the $200m spent on govt advertising… $1 mill per day!
Yup, they’r gawn, stuffed, not to be the next gov’t., individually and collectively buggered and gone to meet the 75 raisins in the sky.
I see Andrew is in from Upside-Downy-Down land…
Albert – the newspoll marginal poll was 54-46 as well
[What that means is that there is a chance of Labors national aggregated TPP vote being 51.3 That is not enough to secure victory.]
You are forgetting the 60 or so polls previous. You cannot take a single poll in isolation.
Can I say thanks to all the bludgers who gave that fantastic running commentary on the announcement of the Newspoll result some few minutes ago.
I tuned in for the delayed telecast and read all your comments about 15 minutes after the fact (not realising William had posted the final result in the meantime).
Particularly like the crazed frenetic posting towards the end and Swing Lowe who posted a “T-1 minute” reminder near the finish line.
In the end, an unspectacular finish, but it’s about the journey not the destination.
Love your work.
When do the political ads have to stop?
TC @ 57,
Actually I wouldn’t write off SL. Sangakkara’s an absolute champion.
Hard to really see the Libs doing it, though. If I had to guess I’d put the eventual Labor TPP between 53 and 54. Which will be enough.
Swing Lowe why the ‘narrowing’ of course lol!
2% is possible and let’s not forget that Newspoll had on the last day 50-50 and we romped home 53-47, if it goes our way we could win if that 3% goes your way we’re done and dusted.
At least it’s not 57-43 we aren’t screwed we can win but we’re behind.
Sets up the 24th as a squeaker and if Rudd doesn’t win the marginals campaign, he despite winning the 2PP may not get enough seats. Rather like Gore winning the vote but not the Electoral College. Rudd if he loses will be so pissed off it will be hilarious to watch him if we tories get out of jail 😉 .
Glad we have the Newspoll result. Now I can go to bed, as I have to start work early.
What has this website done to my life, that I have to stay up late just to find out an opinion poll result??
“i wouldn’t be saying this is a good poll for either side.”
Except that one side has 1 million more votes.
Grooski,
You should also note that there is a 68% chance that the true sample is between 52.65 and 55.35. So it’s more likely to be in the net positive position for Labor than not…
you’ve made up 2 points in the last 5 weeks – what makes you think the Libs can make up another 2 in the last 5 days?
The Budget bounce is due any day now…
Well this makes perfect sense doesn’t it? The past few days have been good for Labor, bad for the Coalition and yet it’s Labor who goes down in Primary Vote, 2PP and Preferred PM. Does this make sense to anyone? Labor’s vote should have increased, not decreased. Did you see the Sky News Election Agenda pundits? Howard can still win this, too close to call. Labor has 46% primary vote – and that’s bad for Labor considering it’s usually 48%. But it’s alot better than 41% you chumps. They were all talking up Howard and Costello’s Today Tonight love-in and how it’s a fairly good poll for the Govt. Apparently Dennis Shanahan has been giving them his pills. Disappointed in Labor’s primary vote but 54% 2PP – better than 46% ain’t it?.
[Why haven’t we had rogue poll in the Libs favour? We’ve had a 58-42 and a 59-41, but no 51-49 or 50-50]
Yeah, I was wondering that myself yesterday. I guess it’s because the ‘real’ number has probably been floating around 55-56, and we’ve only seen 53’s as the lower rougues.
This is a good result for the Coalition. At this stage of the cycle you want to be the underdog and had their poll increased, it would have been peaking too early.
A little like premature ej…you know.
If interest rate had gone down, it would also have gazumped the underdog narrative. So all in all everything is on track for a coalition victory according to the great MASTER PLAN.
No no, not from Upside-Downy-Down land at all. From Grayndler, actually.
I wish that Labor would win the election.
But, they won’t. They’ll make up ground and be within striking distance for next time.
Grooski @ 54
How is that even possible? We’re not talking about one poll. We’re talking about nearly EVERY SINGLE POLL from the last TEN MONTHS. This isn’t about the MOE anymore. We have more than enough soundings – far, far more – to be able to have an accurate read of the electorate. It isn’t even remotely possible that it’ll be 51-point-anything. No other recent poll comes close to suggesting that.
Damn, I wanted at the very least 55/45. Have to wait for ACN now.
so this is consistent with Jackman’s pooling forecast
If the Greens primary is up, that’ll be better than 54-46. Newspoll uses aggregate prefs from the minor parties for the last election, so they always give Labor 61% of minor parties’ votes. However, if the Greens are up, Labor’s 2PP will be better than Newspoll’s estimate.
Don’t forget that this was taken before Rove!
LOL, it’s all over for Howard. Crushing morale result for lib campaign workers. Only possible movement from here is towards the ALP as the libs implode with recriminations and cat fighting over the remainder of the week.
Does me just fine, 54/46 will provide the ALP with the 85 seats I’ve predicted and enable me to drink my full celebratory allocation Sat night. 🙂
amen to that Antonio.
I went grocery shopping tonight at 7:40pm (had to wait to first see if anything was on the 7:30 Report), and while waiting in the queue I wondered how could all these people not be freaking out about the newspoll comming out tonight.
And then I remembered. They have a life.
[Don’t forget that this was taken before Rove!]
Rudd is already on about 60 / 40 for the 18 – 34 age group. I can’t see how it could go any higher.
Despite what the polls say Labor supporters should not be complacent. The PM is evil and of course evil is powerful. He may yet pull some wizardry from his book of black spells.
But then again maybe not…………..
[Well this makes perfect sense doesn’t it? The past few days have been good for Labor, bad for the Coalition and yet it’s Labor who goes down in Primary Vote, 2PP and Preferred PM. Does this make sense to anyone?]
Yes, it’s called a random sample. Trying to extrapolate a week’s political happenings to a random poll of 1000 or so people that week is about as silly as playing golf in a lightning storm.
Dyno-Im half serious if Kumar and Sanath get going and MacGill bowls more pies like he did today it could get very very close.260 off 90 overs very gettable.Then again one of those guys go early and its all over. Logic tells me the Tories cant win but Im still traumatised by 1998 although theres no 1 Nation this time.
I will stick with my prediction of 4 weeks ago: Labor 89 (TPP 53.9%). Interestingly Possum has also predicted Labor 89. SA will provide two additional highly talented young females to Canberra- that will raise both the average IQ and beauty in ACT.
bryce 71
Good point.
In elections, it always a lot more helpful if about 1 million more people vote for your party than the other mob.
3 iron found; Rain Co leapfrogs EB in Wentworth; TT hubris ‘I will decide’…farce on. Sham-I-am farred on sky…oh dear oh dear. Ok to laugh.
Glen @ 67,
One thing I forgot to mention was that 3 weeks ago, the Newspoll was also 54/46. So effectively, the Libs campaign has flatlined after the “Narrowing” of 2 points in the first 2 weeks. Just makes the Libs’ job that much harder (particularly after the ad blackout on Wednesday).
Told ya yesterday folks 😉 Anybody wanna know some interesting Coalition internal polling?
Chris in London @ 47 – Where did you see Dennis on TV? Can I access it here too?
Damn is that right Bryce @ 71? Only a 1 million vote lead?
I’m sure Glen will tell us how the Libs will win those back in four days (and forget to mention how they might lose 500,000 more)
[Anybody wanna know some interesting Coalition internal polling?]
Sure. Why not?
Yes, Toby, we would…
yes please Toby
Burgey #44
Wrong!
He looked like he had just passed them.
bring it on toby!
Go Ruddstar! 54-46 is a great result and this Saturday I think Labor will do considerably better than that in reality.
These are exactly the kind of numbers I was hoping for. If the Labor 2PP was any higher, the talk of a Coalition wipe out might result in people trying to balance things out by voting against Labor. And if it was lower than 53, then Labor might start losing the all-important “win expectations”.
For me, this poll sits in just the right place. And with momentum currently going Labor’s way, it will be difficult for Howard to claw back much support in the dying days of this campaign.