Laurie Oakes reports on the Channel Nine News that a McNair opinion poll has Joe Hockey and Labor’s Mike Bailey locked on 50-50 in North Sydney.
UPDATE: Sky News reveals the sample was 400.
UPDATE 2: Unsourced talk of primary vote figures of 44 per cent for Hockey and 41 per cent for Bailey.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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Howard has narrowed the gap on Preferred PM! Noes!
Re: Nth Sydney….surely the GETUP campaign against Hockey would also help Mike Bailey, just as the ‘Not Happy John’ campaign was effective in reducing Howard’s margin in Bennelong last election?
Newspoll 54-46 ALP
Primary Labor 46 down 2, Liberal up 1
Bob Brown on LL. Didn’t waste a second. Masterly!!!!!
ShowsOn, he doesn’t give a specific prediction but he does say, “Barring something amazing in this last week, or a marginal seats miracle, Labor will win, and win comfortably.” Hope this helps 🙂
Is that the fat lady I hear singing
North Sydney is my dream result. A bit of money has gone on this one recently. I got $7 on Bailey, now it’s in to around $4.
The Armenians in the US seem to be heavily Republican. As in Australia, they tend to vote as a bloc and are *very* politically organized. I wonder why…
On another subject, does anyone know where I could find a live internet feed of the election?
Armenians are the archetypal small bizos, just behind the Jews. Armenians have also held a prominent place in Singapore and HK, punching above their weight.