McNair: 50-50 in North Sydney

Laurie Oakes reports on the Channel Nine News that a McNair opinion poll has Joe Hockey and Labor’s Mike Bailey locked on 50-50 in North Sydney.

UPDATE: Sky News reveals the sample was 400.

UPDATE 2: Unsourced talk of primary vote figures of 44 per cent for Hockey and 41 per cent for Bailey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

260 comments on “McNair: 50-50 in North Sydney”

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  1. Re: Nth Sydney….surely the GETUP campaign against Hockey would also help Mike Bailey, just as the ‘Not Happy John’ campaign was effective in reducing Howard’s margin in Bennelong last election?

  2. ShowsOn, he doesn’t give a specific prediction but he does say, “Barring something amazing in this last week, or a marginal seats miracle, Labor will win, and win comfortably.” Hope this helps 🙂

  3. The Armenians in the US seem to be heavily Republican. As in Australia, they tend to vote as a bloc and are *very* politically organized. I wonder why…

  4. Armenians are the archetypal small bizos, just behind the Jews. Armenians have also held a prominent place in Singapore and HK, punching above their weight.

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