McNair: 50-50 in North Sydney

Laurie Oakes reports on the Channel Nine News that a McNair opinion poll has Joe Hockey and Labor’s Mike Bailey locked on 50-50 in North Sydney.

UPDATE: Sky News reveals the sample was 400.

UPDATE 2: Unsourced talk of primary vote figures of 44 per cent for Hockey and 41 per cent for Bailey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

260 comments on “McNair: 50-50 in North Sydney”

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  1. I am reminded of the public sacking by vote of Graham Kierath- the WA Minister who overlorded the WA Libs IR laws which Workchoices is closely based upon.

    The swing against him was significantly higher than the state wide swing.

    The reason was obvious- he had become the personal face of the most publically unpopular laws of the governemnet of the day.

  4. If one takes all these polls at face value, there would seem to be a great number of individual seats that will go right down to the wire on Saturday (and in the days to follow) …if one takes the polls at face value.

  5. Well, that was a little unexpected (although probably not completely unexpected).

    I expect the MOE will be big enough to show anything could happen on election night. Still, wouldn’t want to be Joe Hockey right about now.

    Who was it that got on at $7? Guess McNair just made their night LOL

  6. Wow! First time I’ve seen a poll for North Sydney. As I’ve said before, Mike Bailey has run a really impressive campaign and has been door-knocking for months now. It would be great to see him get up.

  8. Big Blind Dave – what made Kierath’s demise so good was that he was an election night commentator and lost his seat on TV.

    Hockey is also supposed to be on TV I think. Wouldn’t that be great to see.

  10. [I am reminded of the public sacking by vote of Graham Kierath- the WA Minister who overlorded the WA Libs IR laws which Workchoices is closely based upon.]

    And with Shrek on the Ch 7 cxoverage, he may just do a Kierath on screen as well 🙂

  11. Hence the movement in Mike Bailey’s odds?

    I’d love to see an event study done with betting and individual/national polls (Hello, Leigh and Wolfers?). The potential for ‘insider trading’ must be sizeable, and there’s no shortage of data. (And, thanks to places like the Poll Bludger, the question of ‘when is this info in the public domain?’ can be answered almost to the very minute).

  14. I wonder if this gives credence to the fact that the swing might not just be in the marginals but could also be in safe seats too. However we will have to look at the MOE to see how this goes.

  15. A note to Possum, your “Final Countdown” scenario seems to be now in paly with the Liberals and Nats starting to unravel big time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  16. red wombat Says:
    November 19th, 2007 at 8:15 pm
    Me thinks Joe better spend less time in the pie shop and more foot slogging.

    but joe loves pork pies!

  17. Skynews said: “The Government has shelved a NEW WAVE of industrial relation changes”. This should send shivers down the Government’s spine, as this is coming from a friend.

  18. Mike’s been working very hard. I saw him on Sunday and he is beetroot red with sunburn from tramping the streets and door knocking. He had a glint in his eye – daring to hope, I think. The campaign office is hopping and the place smells of sweat and optimism. Plenty of volunteers to go around, including blow-ins like me. Definitely one of the interesting ones to watch on the night.

    (Unless all this talk of tight contests in the real marginals is true, in which case we’ll all be biting our nails over Macquarie and Bonner.)

  21. You’re better off cos we’re squeezing you dry:

    “You have to love the Coalition’s spin on WorkChoices. The way they want to have it both ways. The way they try to tell us that WorkChoices is good for us because we can negotiate a better outcome for ourselves and on behalf of our kids. That the flexibility of AWAs is good for employers and employees.

    But then they try to tell us that they’re keeping inflation and interest rates low because WorkChoices is “keeping wages under control.”

    So which is it? Is it leading to people getting paid more or is it leading to people getting paid less? The overwhelming evidence seems to be it’s leading to people getting paid less and losing conditions – if you listen to Tony Abbott that is.”

    http://www.livenews.com.au/Articles/2007/11/19/Youre_better_off_cos_were_squeezing_you_dry

  22. Apparently channel 7 tried to FOI the new work choices reforms info from the department of PM & cabinet, and they put the kybosh on it.

    I’m sure that won’t amuse 7 much in the lead up to the big day, nor is it a good look for the govt.

  23. The speculation is great on this even without the document. What were they planning? They have been lying to us? Here comes the ACTU….

  25. Julie at earlier thread re Turnbull the Rainmaker on 7.30 Report …

    One correction to your report – the scheme he backed proposes to create rain – from a cloudless sky. Reminds me of Joh backing some shonk who said he could run cars on water.

  26. Jeez, William, you’re quick. Anyone else with a take on Turnbull ponying up $10 mill. of our hard earned for a fizzer? Anyone with a take on the NLP spending $290+ mill. of our hard earned on their advertising? Or will it all just go through to the keeper?

  27. Am I the only one thinking the challenge on Saturday will be to stay sober enough for long enough to see all the wonderful results?

  28. red wombat – “Me thinks Joe better spend less time in the pie shop and more foot slogging.”

    Haha… I agree. Methinks that the ‘Widening’ of big Joe’s girth lends weight to charges that he hasn’t been campaigning as hard as he ought to, resulting in a ‘Narrowing’ of the polls in Labor’s favour. Perhaps there is a direct correlation between Joe’s waistline and the swing to Labor.

  29. Who was it that got on at $7? Guess McNair just made their night LOL

    C’est moi, c’est moi, I’m forced to admit,
    I’m far too noble to lie…”

  30. Sorry if off topic 4 a minute but we are an hour and a half behind everybody else here so TDT just finished.

    Is Anna Coren actually Mike Moore in drag.

    That was possibly the weakest “puff piece” I have ever seen for either party, in watching 35 years of politics in Australia.

  31. If polls like this can be believed it gives some credence to the idea that the Libs could just possibly hang on against a 53:47 type vote by playing all of their seats down to the wire.

    Of course it is also a very risky strategy that could end in a wipe-out.

  32. So, we need an add for the ALP with:

    Rattus; We will never ever take WorkChoices further!

    Followed by;

    Rattus: We will never ever have a GST!

    If anything will affect this campaign, this will. The Rattus Crew must be squirming.

    Bring on Saturday.

    Oh, and can we have some insightful comment from Tabitha on this matter please?

  33. Bailey has worked hard for this and he owes a bit to his supporters including those on this site that get out there and help as well as blogging.

    But Bailey would not have done this as a whim, he gave up a good career and job for something he thought he had more than a chance at and where he could make a difference.

    I think any swing in North Sydney will be as a result of Bailey and his supporters hard work and not indicitive of the swing overall.

  34. Hmm,

    Methinks Perth won’t get the Coren love in with Howie& Pete – lead story on our TT is an interview with Lloyd Raney, Husband and Chief suspect of Murder Victin Corrin Raney.

  35. ABC TV News still doing its best for the coalition. Second item on the 8.30 summary bulletin was the TT fluff piece interview with Dear Leader and smirk.
    So these two do an interview and this is news? WTF?

  36. Ofcourse we don’t know any of the fundamentals of this poll yet but lets assume for a moment that its right… it would give aid to the theory that a large portion of the swing is coming from leafy liberal suburbs. Ofcourse if the poll is correct it would also mean certain defeat for Howard in neighbouring Bennelong.

  37. Just watched 7.30 report. What a bunch of namby pamby butter boys the 2 members for SA are? Is every liberal a clone of Dolly.
    Sorry but people voted for these 2 ? Are SA’s really that deficient? And the Labor candidates, not only is Mia drop dead gorgeous but she is electrocharged. Nicole seems timid but don’t right her off. Pyne is gooooooooooooooonnn!

    Oh and one of the kinder committee mums is a metereoligist. According to her we are f#$ked already. Absolutely nothing has been done to date.

  40. This shouldn’t be a surprise. People on here have been trying to say for weeks now (including Possum’s Pollycide papers months ago) that Liberal safe seats are going to swing like they’ve never swung before.

    It is only LTEP’s and other “Labor pessimists” who have dismissed this as ‘fantasy’. It may be a fantasy, but it’s not a baseless fantasy. Nth Sydney, Wentworth, Bennelong and the like are just as likely to fall as the “classic” marginals.

    This is of course where the 30+ seats will come from. The 55% TPP average hasn’t come out of thin air for 10 months……..

    It’s bullsh-t that high profile MPs like Turnbull and Hockey will hold on because their profile. They will loose because of (and not in spite of) their profile. The government is on the nose, and the Ministers are hated far more than J’Ho himself.

    Keep an eye on Higgins too!

  43. Is it just me, or does Simon Jackman have the most unreliable webpage of all time?

    It seems to only work for me between 4 and 6 AM on Thursdays after a full moon.

  45. [On another note i heard tonight that labor polling in Boothby earlier in the campaign was showing a swing of 8%.]

    Only the carp themselves would know what’s at the bottom of the river.

  47. 42 NGK – Sorry to repeat a joke I posted earlier
    Q-What were General Custer’s famous last words?
    A- Where the f*ck did all those indians come from?

  48. Woah! This gives credence to landslide theories. If Bailey even comes close, the Libs are in for the mother of all electoral shitstorms on Saturday.

    By the way, I say 730 report too.

    I hadnt noticed before. Nicole Cornes is a gobsmackingly beautiful woman.

  50. John Ryan, I’ve never dismissed any of it as fantasy. Not once. I think Wentworth, Bennelong and North Sydney will be tight. The Coalition will need luck to hold onto all 3. Which is possible.

    I’ve actually posted evidence that it’s possible Turnbull could be out on the primaries given in the ACN. Comparatively to Richmond in the ’04 election they’re very similar. I think its wrong to assume seats like these will stay just because of high profile members. You can’t dismiss some polls and embrace others, which is exactly what some people are doing. My modus operandi is to treat all the polls with caution, and to look at repeat polls. Bennelong, Wentworth and North Sydney have produced at least 2 polls each showing the Coalition in danger. You can’t ignore that.

    Still… you’d have to admit that these seats are additionials and not ones that Labor will be banking on to win the election.

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