Sky News reveals tomorrow’s Newspoll will show Labor leading 54-46; primary vote Labor 46 per cent (down two points), Coalition 41 per cent (up one). Details to follow.
UPDATE: Preliminary article at The Australian.
UPDATE 2: The Australian’s graphic here.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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Looks like Edward St John will the kind donor to this site.
the end is nigh …
It’s not getting worse.
Its not getting better
Primary vote fluctuations can prob be explained by increased Greens vote (I presume).
All in all, good news for ALP – status quo is brilliant for the ALP now.
If its 54-46 lads, it won’t be a seat by seat battle
Article up at the Oz:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22787076-601,00.html
But, most importantly, (according to Shamahan) Johnny has kept his lead on economic management.
Is Dennis a political advisor for the Liberals?
46 primary vote – bit low… would’ve liked it to hold at 47.
Love how Shanahan thiing the coalition vote has narrowed 53-55-54. Yes really narrowed.
Anyone for 51-49 on Saturdays Newspoll?
It’s the “Unmoving”.
Yehh! Line honours for the last Monday Newspoll thread before the election
woooooooooooo!
Seriously, as expected.
54-46 same as newspoll breakdowns from previous week, around about 90 seats isn’t it?
Anyone catch Dennis’ look at the end??? He is devestated…. poor didums.
So the tip wasn’t lying. 54 – 46 and a jump in the green primary.
Makes sense, the Green primary has been too low in Newspoll all year. As people near the election, they lock their actual vote.
This does not bode well for Team Rodent.
How do newspoll do their preferences? Is it on the basis of last election, or do they actually ask?
Yep, 54/46 = 90 seats for Labor
More of the same… for one more week.
And then ding-dong the witch is dead.
You would think that these blokes would know something about campaigns. Votes barely change!
Look at the trend all year – ALP 53-55 2PP – it hasn’t moved!
We tories only have to make up 2% and we can conceivably win, i wouldn’t be saying this is a good poll for either side.
on track for the mackerras 89 seat prediction
87-61 on Antony’s computer…..
i’d still prefer to see ACN before i acknowledge that the labor lead wont increase.
This blows out Possum’s prediction, looks like the pace of narrowing means that the Libs will be in sight of victory come 28 April 2008.
Glen, you’ve made up 2 points in the last 5 weeks – what makes you think the Libs can make up another 2 in the last 5 days?
54/46 is Ok at this stage. It is a 7% swing on 2004 on TPP.
18 Michael – its supposed to be based on 2004, but calculations from previous results have shown it fluctuating rather than being constant
I think a lot of labor voters noting that they are winning are tempted to jump to green in the primary..
God, Denis was such a Liberal party hack
crapping on about the economic management mumbo jumbo, he looked so pathetic
Absolutely consistent with the other national polls, and indicative of a comfortable Labor win.
But, of course, people could be lying to the pollsters. John Howard would be hoping that the liars will vote for him.
GP is really Dennis Shenanigan. Did you notice how GP went quiet just when Dennis went on air?
Pi. I hope you are right.
Still on track for my 95 seat prediction…
How much crap can you write about a statistically non-significant change in a sample by 1 or 2%?
Oh go on Glen, say its a good poll for the Tories. 8 points behind, 5 days to go, it doesn’t get any better does it?
# 33 John Hunt Is A Coward Says: November 19th, 2007 at 9:57 pm
That’s it alright. Nowhere to be seen all of a sudden.
Glen Says: “We tories only have to make up 2% and we can conceivably win, i wouldn’t be saying this is a good poll for either side.”
I come to this site for the humour…. oh the humanity!
Glen – you must be out of your mind. This is precisely (given the MOE) where the polls have been for TEN MONTHS. No movement whatsoever. None. Nothing at all. Anything resembling movement has just been statistical noise. The electorate hasn’t been coy, hasn’t been holding their cards close to their chests. They made up their minds a long time ago. And now it’s just the wait until polling day…
29 – Grooski – thanks. So how come a 3 point change in the primary vote doesn’t change the TPP?
Amongst the psephs, is it regarded as more accurate to ask for preferences or rely on the last election?
My concern is that this time a lot of the minor party voters will be protesting against howard but will preference liberal above labor
Whew!
My $200.00 on the Coalition still looks like a winner – consolation money for having these tools in power for three more years.
does anyone know of any election night gatherings happening in Griffith electorate? Feeling comfortable of a victory i think (cripes did i just let myself say that????)
Poor Dennis – was his hair dark at the start of the campaign?
He looked like he’d swallowed a bucket of nails.
It’s Time 36
Dead right!
All of the movements have been merely statistical noise. If it were a machine making stuff at 54 =/- 2mm there would be no need to adjust it – it would be described as being both in statistical control and capable.
Michale- why would you say that pref will go to Libs?
Morgan does one thing right, they ask about preferences and then publish both the “last election” and “stated preference intentions”
Hasn’t bee much difference actually
Does Lillian Frank do Denis’ hair? It was a great bouffant tonight…….
Michael @ 41,
The 3 point movement in primaries was reflected in a 2 point movement in TPP (from 55/45 to 54/46). The difference is probably due to rounding error or an increase in Greens vote.
On the economic management question Rod Cameron nailed it last Friday on Lateline. The question is pointless. The question should be “Will Kevin Rudd stuff up the economy?”
If the overwhelming answer is no, then economic management is largely irrelevant.
The problem last time for Latham was even a few ALP voters (inc me) had a fair idea he was a good chance to walk into cabinet and say “Well guys, I’ve sold the country to China!”
I wouldn’t quite say there’s no narrowing. And I must admit the Coalition has (so far) failed to fall apart in quite the way everyone expected at, say, the time of APEC.
If there is to be a Howard victory, though, the rabbit will need to be a huge one.
BBD – not sure. Just an instinctive feel that people might lodge their protest, but then be driven by fear to preference the govt
They talk about momentum in the last week and its all with Rudd. The lead stories seem to be
1. Debnam saying should have ratified Kyoto
2. Serfchoices FOI coverup
3. Turnbull’s $11M to a mate to make rain
4. Rodent saying Serfchoices will stay forever
5. RPP rorting
It’s all good as long as Peter Garrett shuts up!