Newspoll: 54-46

Sky News reveals tomorrow’s Newspoll will show Labor leading 54-46; primary vote Labor 46 per cent (down two points), Coalition 41 per cent (up one). Details to follow.

UPDATE: Preliminary article at The Australian.

UPDATE 2: The Australian’s graphic here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

697 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46”

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  1. mad cow@646

    I agree, this concept being pushed that ALP can’t possibly be higher than 54 because it’s never happened before is just plain bollocks. On that reckoning Whitlam would never have won an election because the ALP hadn’t won since the war, just because it hasn’t happened doesn’t imply it can’t.

    So far I am confident of 22 seats which I believe will fall to ALP. I think ALP will get at least an additional 4 to give it 85 but can’t yet identify where they will come from. As always in a big swing some will be out of left field.

    NSW 8; Lindsay, Robertson, Dobell, Parramatta, Eden-Monaro, Page, Paterson, Bennelong
    Qld 5; Bonner, Moreton, Blair, Petrie, Longman
    Vic 2; Corangamite, Deakin
    TAS 2; Bass, Braddon
    SA 4; Kingston, Wakefield, Makin, Boothby
    WA 1; Hasluck

  4. And.

    I have observed, over time, Howard’s change of tailoring.

    Bit of a trip to Savile Row, whilst putting it on at the Ritz?

    And note the fine work on the sleeve, as it joins the rather beautiful cuff.

    Art.

    No expense.

    I’ll talk about his suits when I obtain a photo. Observed it mostly in Parliament. And on the way to the AWB hearing.

  8. Ah, beware a Labor/Green Axis!

    Would that be an Axis of Evil, or an Axis of Weasels? God, save us from anything with an Axis in front of it! Sh!t, maybe they’ve got WMD! Correction, they MUST have WMD, because they are indeed an A-X-I-S.

    Thank whatever diety you’ve been indoctrinated with that Kelly and Shambam have alerted us…be alert, and be VERY afraid! If that evil AXIS gets into government near you, then kiss your loved ones goodbye, kiss your A-hole goodbye, and curl up into a tight little ball, think of John Howard and you will verily walk into the land of the righteous and no evil will come unto you.

    Sweet Jeeeeeeeeeeeeesuz, these people are the pits!!!!!!!!!!!!

  11. mad cow @ 657

    I wouldn’t rule Hughes out by any means, it now includes ALP Liverpool and has a lot of young families on mortgages. Big swing required but once the first tier goes down Hughes will be in play.

    Crikey Whitey; What you drinking there girl?

  12. Howard says in GG:”There will be a return of political correctness” (if labor gets in)

    This is opposed to the curent regime of political corruptness.

  13. Ha, Ha. mad cow.

    Sartorial elegance.

    Not in the morning.

    Common touch on display.

    Not that too many deck themselves in Aussie trackies.

  16. Thank whatever diety you’ve been indoctrinated with that Kelly and Shambam have alerted us…be alert, and be VERY afraid! If that evil AXIS gets into government near you, then kiss your loved ones goodbye, kiss your A-hole goodbye, and curl up into a tight little ball, think of John Howard and you will verily walk into the land of the righteous and no evil will come unto you.

    Sweet Jeeeeeeeeeeeeesuz, these people are the pits!!!!!!!!!!!!

    These people are complete awnkers. Seems they don’t remember Hawke and Keating taking over from a Faser/Howard disaster; having their own disaster but fixing the whole thing once and for all, for all of us, including unions and IR.

    The Coalition can actually stiffle the Greens in anycase by voting with Labor on issues where Greens try to push issues further than Labor wants.

    AND really, the world is about to change in some significant ways because of peak oil, renewable energy and Climate Change issues not to mention evolving changes in dynamics between China, USA, Europe etc. WE will actually need some visionary thinking and a will to act.

    Howard’s answer is to circle the wagons and bring in some 19th century IR and security thinking.

  17. Oh yes Mark, as we all know….Labor governments can’t possibly be corrupt. Just ask any Western Australian or our very good mate Brian Burke.

  18. I’ve just been off to vote at the Embassy in Paris, which is quite an adventure because there’s a metro strike so everyone has to walk to get there. I talked to one women who walked three hours to vote! That’s a commitment to democracy.

    Anyway, you’ll be pleased to know there were two people outside in Kevin 07 t-shirts, helping people work out what electorates they’re in and handing out how to vote booklets, and they’ll be there everyday. Remember, it’s only about 5 degrees here, so they’re doing it a bit tough. They told me there’d been no Liberal volunteers and that they thought about 80% of people are voting Labor, based on their comments.

    I helped two young women who were voting for the first time and wanted to vote Labor, but didn’t realise you had no number every box. So, I saved two Labor votes from informal oblivion.

    Paris is a bit crazy because of the transport strike and it will mean that there’ll be some people who don’t get arond to voting. But you really feel your vote means something when you have to walk a couple of hours to make it.

  22. mad cow and kina, thanks for your kind words, I’ve calmed down by leaving a less than complimentary response to the Sham on the GG, (even if they don’t publish it!)

    Wayyyyy past my bedtime and must away. Five more sleeps, and this vile thing will have passed.

    Sweet dreams.

    Oh yes, the real work begins on the 25th, in a world that’s anything but ‘relaxed and comfortable’, no thanks to the rodent!

  23. Liz at 668.

    Great effort, there. At least there is transport to strike over.

    Seems that only Labor voters prepared to do the hard yards.

    Chris at 669.

    Is that where Howard incurred a $10,000 late check out fee?

    Door stopping or waiting on the bespoke?

  25. John 667 then vote the b*stards out. You now appear to be defending corruption by citing another example of corruption. I suggest you pop yourself back into the political wilderness for a while and cool down.

  26. ‘Oh yes, the real work begins on the 25th, in a world that’s anything but ‘relaxed and comfortable’, no thanks to the rodent’!

    As I remarked to Glen. The Party’s over.

    In more ways than one.

    So speaking of cuffs and sleeves, we’ll be rolling them up.

  29. The so-called right-wing government in France would be called left-wing in Oz. An interesting thing they’re doing here is free bikes that you just pick up and drop off anywhere in the city. It’s going absolute gangbusters and I wish I was brave enough to ride a bike here, but I’m not.

  30. Don’t get too complacent. While it is too late for the Tories to win back the hearts and minds of Middle Australia and surf in on a wave of popular sentiment, it’s not too late for them to score a dirty victory with a minority of votes, distributed across the right marginals. Labor stalling in Victoria points to that being a possibility, and their mates the Exclusive Brethren will undoubtedly be going to bat for them in key marginals with bogus flyers, misleading how-to-vote cards and such. With all the tricks they can muster (and if anyone knows tricks it’s Howard), they might just make it back.

    I certainly wouldn’t open the champagne just yet. The fight is far from over.

  31. Liz@679: the free bikes are the works of Bertrand Delanoë, the left-wing mayor of Paris, not of Sarkozy, the right-wing president of France (who got elected after they came about).

    Sarkozy is in some ways a right-winger in the Reagan/Thatcher mould, only not committed to the full extent of the “Anglo-Saxon model” (privatisation, free markets, &c.), presumably due to pragmatism.

  33. acb, fortunately the Labor party campaign (at least publicly) are still saying it’s going to be close and it’ll go down to the wire etc.

    The punters in the betting markets are giving an interesting verdict thus far. In the space of just over a week the number of seats which the punters reckon Labor is favoured to win (50%+ chance of winning) has gone from 75 to 79 with around 8-10 seats having a 40 – 49% chance (according to punters) of being won by Labor. It’s going to be an interesting week following the election betting!

  34. Another good result for the ALP. The polls have been remarkably consistant all campaign regardless of what spin people might try and put on it.

    However, its virtually useless if we don’t know where the swing is happening. It’s still within the realm of possibility the seats could be swinging closer to a Labor win but not getting over the line. People might not wish to acknowledge this, but results can defy conventional wisdom.

    In the lists I’ve seen people posting I can usually name at least 3-4 seats I don’t think will fall. I still think there’s a good chance Labor will lose Cowan and Swan, although I certainly wouldn’t be writing them off just based on those dodgy Westpolls.

    To me, it’s not over til it’s over and we won’t know until election night the true story. I still think it’s very close.

  36. William: On Sunday, under Morgan phone poll 56-44 at 7.54pm I posted the following:

    “William: I posted the last post on the thread that has just died or lapsed:

    ESJ #562:

    I’ll take you on for a $100 donation to PB so long as you promise to shut up until William confirms you’ve paid the $100. 53.00-47.00 ALP TPP = draw (and we both give William $20. ALP 53.01% TPP and you pay William $100.”

    This was to do with Newspoll national poll Tuesday (or Monday)”

    I hope he’s paid

  37. From the GG:
    “Work Choices will be thrown out, unfair dismissal will come back, pattern bargaining will come back. In effect, compulsory arbitration will come back, because under Fair Work Australia you can have one person being represented by a trade union in a bargaining process and if the union disagrees with the offer, it has to be resolved by Fair Work Australia. That’s compulsory arbitration in my language.”

    All I can say to that is “WHOOPEE”

  39. Well what happy news to wake up to. With four days to go the Liberals cannot possibly claw this back. I thought that theorising about projecting from marginal seat samples was rubbish, and so it has turned out to be.

    I agree with the comments about ESJ – he should pay up. If he doesn’t, its just another warning not to vote for Liberals – they can’t be trused to keep ANY promise. Its against their nature.

    Liberals =scorpions
    Liberal voters = frogs carrying them across a stream

  42. No Gerr. She had a panel of experts. One was that Textor guy from the Liberal Party, the other was Micheal Costello (who while Labor, he’s still pissed off that Beazley did not get a chance to lead the ALP to the election) and an ex-advisor from the Greens.

    Kelly was saying to Textor what a good poll this was for the Coalition, and that it gave them a chance to win because there are lots of undecided voters etc.

    It is not on the Berakfast site yet, but may be later.

  43. Re Fran,

    I think many are confusing a lack of knowledge with bias. Ignorance is not bias.
    I don’t detect any major bias and as I posted before she got into a lot of trouble in 93 for appearing pro Labor so I think she bends over backwards not to appear biased towards labor. Maybe that is what you are seeing.

    Of more concern are her viewing habits. 🙂

  44. Good grief – what a bunch of tragics! Bit sleepy today? Well done Liz in Paris.
    Well done whoever pointed out that a smallish number of union members gains good conditions for twice their number.

    Bob Brown was excellent on LL – good points about the impossibility of mandated emission levels for sovereign states, the need for visionary, determined and moral leadership, and his points about the Senate and democracy were terrific.

    We’ll be doing our bit in Tassie for the 16 seats.

  45. Just posted this on shanners blog in response to their front page; bet it wont get published.

    Your front page today was full length pro-liberal propoganda. you may as well have just reprinted a liberal party press release. did the journalists actually ask john howard any tough questions, rather than simply give him a platform to launch into every dubious scare about labor he could think of?
    also interesting that the interview was published on tuesday, resulting in the burying of the newspoll results. in the final week of the election, this was a particularly crucial poll and shows a diabolical result for the coalition.
    as much as i dont want to promote even more diabolical journalism, will kevin rudd be given equal space – ie, his own front page rant to spout his talking points between now and saturday?

  46. I don’t detect bias in Fran Kelly – just the inevitable superficiality of being “across everything” at 6am. On a program like this, guest selection is critical. Michelle Grattan is always thorough and fair, but rarely outspoken (though she copped a serve from JWH today), Henderson detailed, biased and boring, Urhlmann boorish, Lebovic “can’t be called yet”.

    The ABC certainly seems very cautious generally. While the Chaser’s stunts are often outrageous, they are not into political satire as often as they were in times past. Hopefully this will change tomorrow night!

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