Newspoll: 54-46

Sky News reveals tomorrow’s Newspoll will show Labor leading 54-46; primary vote Labor 46 per cent (down two points), Coalition 41 per cent (up one). Details to follow.

UPDATE: Preliminary article at The Australian.

UPDATE 2: The Australian’s graphic here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

697 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46”

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  1. CL de F, nice segue! Raiders indeed! Raiders of the public purse more like it.

    God I love it when knobs like Turnbull do something so unbelievably stupid it takes your breath away. It confirms what you’ve always suspected, that ‘celebrity’ investment bankers are just as vain, ego maniacal, and daft as any other variety of celebrity.

  3. Alan H @ 360 , re preference allocations

    I thought about your argument re the impact that a small no of greens preferences could have on the overall MOE. But I’m not convinced.

    Suppose you did a survey of 800 people and just asked them “Given a choice between two parties, Liberal and Labor, which one would you vote for?”. The MOE would be about 3 1/2 per cent.

    Suppose you then did another survey, and asked another 800 people to choose, from a list of eight (or whatever) parties, the one they would give their first preference vote to, and then allocated their second preferences according to some formula based on electoral behaviour at the previous election. The MOE at would still be 3 1/2 per cent.

    Combining the two surveys into one, and asking the latter question first doesn’t in itself increase the MOE on the former question.

    And if the MOE on the former question was higher than on a 2PP estimate based on the latter question, then this should mean that the variance over time across surveys of the 2PP estimate based on the former question should be higher than the variance of the estimate based on the latter.

    But as I pointed out @ 308, this isn’t the case. The variance is if anything slightly higher on the latter than the former. (I haven’t tried to calculate the variance of the variance, so I don’t know if the difference is statistically significant.)

    I suspect that the fact that, at the last election, the polls tended to get better approximations of the primary thanthe 2PP votes was just the luck of the draw, MOE at work. (After all, we shouldn’t expect polls to get the election results exactly correct anyway, thanks to MOE.) In another election it could be the other way around.

    It would be interesting if someone went back and looked at whether the primary or the 2PP estimates of the polls were systematically closer to the eletion outcomes across all elections where such estimates have been made, or whether the closer estimate just varied from one election to the next. I imagine this has been done by someone.

  5. November 24, 2007

    Dennis Shanahan

    JOHN HOWARD has defied all polls and secured the most astonishing victory in Australian history.

  6. Most people will check what Sunrise or Today, so don’t worry about the opinions, it will depend on how the TV shows present things: blocked FOI on WorkChoices Mk II, Newspoll, Turnbull’s $10m for a useless project to make rain out of nothing.

  8. 605 – GP: Only five more sleeps, and then your pain will begin to end. Remember, the first step along the path to recovery is acceptance. Followed by resentment, drunkeness and hostility. It won’t be pleasant (for you). But it will be FUN (for us).

  9. [ Asked about the economy, Mr Howard said: “It is a watershed election…]

    And Howard has got the rain water machine to prove it’s a watershed election.

  10. [I think ESJ has left for the night.]

    I’ll pay that.

    I was actually amused at Kevin Rudd’s dog-whistle to Queensland residents.

  12. How was Rodent and Smirk? My god, there was the rodent annointing the drooling clown, and they are the best of mates,eh? Yep, they are joined at the hip, siamese clowns, and ho ho, don’t they hate that Mr Rudd, ooh, yes, yes they do.

    Almost as much as they hate each other.

  17. Yeah, there was a moment when I thought they’d ask each other “who would you turn gay for?” and then they’d titter, and go all coy.

    (In fact the Smirk’s being quite unfaithful, and gets pretty steamy about Kevin Rudd. I mean a guy who can roll his leader, hmmm, that’s so butch!)

  20. “#605
    Generic Person Says:
    November 20th, 2007 at 1:19 am

    November 24, 2007

    Dennis Shanahan

    JOHN HOWARD has defied all polls and secured the most astonishing victory in Australian history.”

    Yeah thats what he will write after John Howard loses the election but keeps his seat. Always the optimist our Dennis!

  22. 458
    Generic Person Says:
    The world has always been about survival of the fittest.

    Quite apart from the fact that this view is utterly wrong, it has always amused me that those holding this view seem to implicitly believe that they will never be one of the losers under such a scenario. And are always the first to run bleating to authority when they do get unfairly shafted by a more powerful player.

    592
    Big Blind Dave Says:
    FOI on Workchoices Mk II

    And the government’s reason for not allowing that request is that it is not in the public interest to know. Oh really? It is certainly isn’t in the government’s interest, I grant them that.

    608
    CL de Footscray
    Remember, the first step along the path to recovery is acceptance. Followed by resentment, drunkeness and hostility.

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha…

  24. Fittest doesn’t mean strongest and most powerful – that only works for individuals within groups, to an extent. The most recent research showed the ‘fittest’ groups that survive are the most altruistic. Which makes sense of course.

  27. NERVOUS LABOR VOTERS

    POSSUM what do you think (info I drew from pollsters web sites)

    2004 Pollsters results: 5/10/04 1week before election VS actual 2004 12/10 result

    error % on major parties and error % on all parties is listed respectively

    Galaxy 0.6% / 0.4%

    Newspoll 1.1% / 0.6%

    Morgan 0.6% / hopeless (overstated Greens by 2.5 % !! AND
    understated Family first by 2 % )

    Nielsen unknown

    CONCLUSION ON 2 PP:

    Galaxy the most accurate (other elections has overstated Liberal vote)
    News Poll close behind
    Morgan ignore them (other elections has overstated Labor vote)
    Nielsen no 2004 info to compare

    Therefore , when the 4 pollsters give their final poll , suggest :
    take Galaxy poll as the worst Labor scenario BUT
    take an average of Galaxy and News Poll as the likely 2 PP actual result

    Any comments ??

  29. Red Wombat (508) Could we actually see Malcolm Fraser (the architect of the 1975 dismissal) voting Labor this time? This election is seriously weird – but I like it.

    (PS – Good to see Isabella has cleaned up her act a bit. She needed to).

  30. “Fittest” is an adaption made by social Darwinists. Darwin was speaking about the survival of the most appropriate. This involves mass extinctions and many genetic wrong turns. Evolution is a cumbersome and highly inefficient method of adaptation. When humans evolved an advanced neo-cortex and developed complex speech we really took off. We were able to develop a method that short-circuited the process of genetic mutation. In short instead of us adapting to our environment we are able to adapt our environment to us.

  31. Ron, there’s a dozen ways to slice and dice that.

    The last result before a poll is still subject to the same sampling error as all the results before it, so the bragging rights tends to be a lottery.

    The other problem is that the pollsters make their living out of accuracy so if their poll trend was wrong last time, chances are they’ve factored what they’ve learnt in to their current methodology.

    I wouldn’t rush to completely write off Morgan either. Chances are they’re measuring *something* interesting.

    And besides like I said before on this thread. My bet is when the dust is settled the pollsters will be discovering they missed some groups of people completely.

  32. Come to think of it, I wouldn’t mind betting that in the final poll this year, the pollsters are busy looking over each other’s shoulders and also factoring in their own ‘best guess’ of their own trend 🙂 (you know.. raw data.. cooked data.. spaghetti)

  33. Ron Brown Says:
    November 20th, 2007 at 2:04 am

    Any comments ??

    Morgan was actually the closest. Their TPP result was due to them erroneously using the respondents stated second preference. All other pollsters split the preference based on 2001 actual results. If Morgan had used this method in 2004, as they do now, they would have been the most accurate.

  34. Talk about ‘adapting to our environment’ how’s this for parallel evolution: Paul Kelly and Dennis Shanahan exchange gametes and come up with this effusive creature called Rodentus Mortis, in this stunning bit of ‘journalism’. (Commonly referred to as ‘blowing your boss’):

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22788091-601,00.html

    …my god, it’s nauseating claptrap, but hey, it’s the GG.

    Whaddya expect?

  36. Good poll for labor, anyone here from the sutherland shire?, according to a reliable source in cook liberal party polling is reporting a 10% + swing to labor, i guess thats wat happens when you install a candiate from the hills district into the shire, im still holding my breath for a surprise win by mark buttigieg. it would be the sweetest victory

  37. mad cow Says: [Let It End, ya gotta admit though, the Morgan face to face poll is off doing its own thing?]

    Not really mad cow, it must be picking up something. Either it’s a good measure of the shame people feel voting lib or it picks up more of the younger voters who don’t get polled in the phone surveys.

    Considering young voters have swung so heavily behind the ALP maybe it’s just a case that pollsters haven’t allowed for this in their weightings. If they haven’t the F2F may just end up closer than you think.

  38. Yep Zander you’re right I spoke to a campaigner today, he thinks we are in with a real chance (He actually thinks it’s “in the bag”). But I’m not so sure, but there is definitely a big swing on.

  39. Generic Person, that would be amazing indeed – if that were the headline. And I guess current polling and pollsters would be consigned to the dust bins of history.

  40. 634 Kirribilli:

    Interesting piece there by Kelly and Sham-a-ham. So Rudd PM is going to push drugs on our kiddies. This isn’t Crosby-Textor any more. This is straight from the Billy McMahon playbook of 1972.

    Tomorrow: Vote Labor and your daughters will end up whoring themselves to buy bread, while your sons end up the smacked-out playthings of sodomitical foreigners.

  41. The only thing that’ll condemn Labor to the political wilderness for another decade is a win this Saturday – if they diverge from their new found “economic conservative” agenda. Which they surly will.

  42. Why is that the Newspoll release features a pic of Howard?

    Grasping that poor girl.

    It’s pretty ugly, so why bother, but what?

    Think this is the second instance of Newspoll featuring Howard, if I am not mistaken. And the second (only?) instance of a photo being included.

    Not that such has any place.

    Can Newspoll be taken seriously?

    Really.

    Or is to make Dennis feel better as he weeps over the numbers.

  43. thanks mark 638

    who ever you talked to sounds really optimistic, where do you live in the shire? im the cronulla-sutherland young labor president and have been helping mark b out campagining, the people we have met are very friendly, many people commenting along the lines of ” ive never voted labor but i will at this election” i think cook could be a real wild card at this election.are you a party member or a supporter?

  44. VBot W
    ‘your sons end up the smacked-out playthings of sodomitical foreigners’
    – that’s what happened to me – can’t say I’ve been that unhappy with my lifestyle choice 😉

  46. Let It End @637, as I’ve said before, the f2f poll is measuring *something* interesting. I also asked before if there are any reasons or hunches people have about the election actually going *higher* than 55.

    If it does, they’ll be talking about what f2f is actually measuring.

    -moo

  47. “644
    Chris in LDN Says:
    November 20th, 2007 at 2:40 am
    VBot W
    ‘your sons end up the smacked-out playthings of sodomitical foreigners’
    – that’s what happened to me – can’t say I’ve been that unhappy with my lifestyle choice ”

    Yeah, on balance even I have to admit it sounds much better than working the Cross for a few slices of Sunigrain.

  49. John at 641 said:

    “The only thing that’ll condemn Labor to the political wilderness for another decade is a win this Saturday – if they diverge from their new found “economic conservative” agenda. Which they surly (sic) will.”

    This appears to be a nonsensical statement. It seems you are implying that by winning government Federal Labor will be entering the political wilderness.

    Zander: no I am not a member of the ALP; I will be helping the Greens on Saturday; I understand that Labor has all booths covered. I live in Gymea.
    The margin is 13.3% so it is a HUGE ask.

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