Newspoll: 54-46

Sky News reveals tomorrow’s Newspoll will show Labor leading 54-46; primary vote Labor 46 per cent (down two points), Coalition 41 per cent (up one). Details to follow.

UPDATE: Preliminary article at The Australian.

UPDATE 2: The Australian’s graphic here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

697 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46”

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  1. paul k 507

    [ crazy electric rain machine thing ]

    What, you mean you don’t believe they can make rain out of nothing?

    What makes me really really really angry, is that Thorbull feeds all our $10 mill bucks into the snake rain company, so he can get a reward of whatever towards his campaign, from Rupert’s nephew.

    The Howard doesn’t even believe in Rainbow Serpents.

    Okay, challenge. Libbies.

    Make it rain on Friday night. And tell me, how are they to turn off the tap?

  3. Was there ever a more inept bunch of greedy, divisive, unthinking f@#kwits running this country? I refer, for the sake of example, and in a limted way, to
    AWB; Iraq (froim beginning to end – apropos of which Hughsie’s remark about Howard’s consumption of GWB’s waste products last night was quite amusing); The regional rorts thing; Turnbull rain maker-gate; kids overboard; SIEV X; Haneef; WorkChoices; broadband (or the lack of it); Mersey hospital …

    Has it ever ocurred to any of the (admittedly few) tory types out there that the reason the Rattites are getting their arses kicked next Saturday is because they are incompetent, arrogant and totally out of touch? And that Howard looks more and more like a silly old bastard who can’t let go?

    Of course, I could be wrong …

  4. For those interested:

    ESJ is on an AWA with Liberal HQ and is doing 72hrs/week and no toilet breaks.

    Glen is on an AWA with Liberal HQ, but has a learning disability, so gets rest times without pay.

    Tabitha is on an AWA, but as she’s underage, and can only type two lines at a time, is not actually paid yet, but she’s been promised a milkshake if she keeps it up until Saturday.

  5. Fascinating to see people still lost in the materialist paradigms of the ninteenth century. If the projections about the effects of climate change are correct the assumptions underlying this whole debate about IR/ economic policy are about to be turned on their head (particularly the separation of economy and environment and the dream of continuous economic growth and ever[increasing material affluence). Perhaps the sustainability penny will drop eventually – perhaps??

  7. [Does anyone know if Tobin Brothers pay a spotters fee? I think they’re going to be busy Sunday]

    And in WA Bowra & O’Dea and Purslowe Funerals will be busy as well 🙂

  9. I think it is too generous to say the are “incompetant, arrogant and out of touch”.

    More a case of blatantly corrupt in the pursuit of power? Eg SEIV X, kids overboard, Haneef, rain making…

  10. Those Catholics in the LNP better start praying to St Thomas More that all the Howard govt’s corruption and mistakes might make their way home in time for Christmas….AWB, Kyoto, Children Overboard? Siev X? Manildra? Cash for Visas? Haneef? [common DPP let the cat out of the bag] – they might need to extend the election another week to fit it all in.

  13. Listen to the bitterness of these Tory Hacks,they know they’re finished,dead and buried.And,you know what really gets up their collective noses???
    They also know,given the current state of politics in Australia,Rudd will get more than one term.
    Yes,it does hurt these people and they are surely bleeding tonight.

    Come the 25/11/07,we’ll hear very little from them.
    Goodnight all!!(54-46,a lovely set of numbers)

  14. [ Fascinating to see people still lost in the materialist paradigms of the ninteenth century. ]

    Goodbye Mr T,

    You are wrong. Haven’t you heard? The Liberal Party have a machine that can make it rain. The drought is over and it won’t be long and Malcolm will banish Climate Change as well.

  15. I haven’t yet had the pleasure of reading about Comrade Malcolm T’s Incredible Rain Making Machine. Still, I wouldn’t knock it. Even blatant pseudo-science is one tiny step ahead of John Howard’s preferred answer to the drought, which was to form a bloc with the Exclusive Brethren and pray…

  20. And with that pic, I bid you goodnight – gotta be up by 5am to get crackin’ on a busy day – it was fun as always guys – only 5 days to go 🙂

  21. The Rodent dealt the unions back into the game with Serf Choices, as it’s just a declaration of ‘class war’, which is just what he accuses Labor of waging. The decline in the Coalition vote correlates very well with the introduction of Serf Choices in March 06 – the ALP started to gain ground from that point onward, even with Beazley still there. With higher interest rates and a bit of ‘fresh leadership’ from Kevvie, together with the Government’s leadership crisis, the rest will be history.
    Labor by at least 10 seats – 80 to 68, two independents – and I pledge $20 for every Labor seat above 80 to Mr Bowe, i.e. if it’s 90 for Labor then $200 for Mr Bowe, with a $100 bonus if both Bennelong and Wentworth fall!
    Watch out for the Greens to get Maxine and Georgie across the line, finishing the Rodent’s career and at least temporarily stalling Malcolm’s, until they find him a safe seat – he better switch to Vaucluse ( Debnam’s State seat) if he wants to live in his electorate and stay in the East! Poor Malcolm, just sold down the river by Howard on the pulp mill, losing both Bass and Braddon and his own seat to Greens prefs. Time to sleeeeeeeep. G’Night Bludgers.

  22. And, on Thorbull.

    I’ll give you ten, you give me five. Million.

    Same as that Queensland private hospital deal. And Mersey. And Boards.

    Quids pro Quo.

  25. VoterBoy – as you would understand well, the electric rain thingy is a sort of investment vehicle which turns money into votes. It didn’t get a run on anything tonight (that I saw) other than the 7:30 show but it got a good run there. It reminds me a bit of the scene in that Indiana Jones movie where the ark turns into an elctric charge thingio and zaps the nazis. Which leads nicely back to the bunker analogies …

  26. We are surely missing a few things here that the Libs have done to themsleves to get into this mess havent we? Lets tally it, just the things from this election please.

    AWB
    Interest rates rise
    Inflation rise
    unemployment increase
    kyoto- internal bickering
    Rain Making
    Fraser endorses change
    Abottt late for debate
    Abott on workchoices
    Howard on workchoices never ending
    Workchoices exisiting in the firstplace
    Workplace authority report on rejections and backlog of AWAs
    UN enviro report
    Mersey Hospital stuffed up takeover
    Regional Rorts
    Advertising Spending
    Campaign Launch spending
    The debate over the worm
    The lady on the ground in the shops who Howard just pointed at and left.
    Costello to replace Howard

    Please add some if i have missed them

  27. George 566

    Workchoices, Iraq, AWB, Interest Rates Rise, Haneef, Rau, Climate Change, Regional Rorts etc are all good issues to be at the fore for the Libs as it puts the focus back on their core strengths: integrity, honesty, trust, decency and humility.

    Who can you trust with incompetence?
    Who can you trust with negligence?
    Who can you trust with pork barrel?
    Who can you trust these days?
    Vote Liberals, they need a soul, your soul, any soul.

  29. Big Blind Dave Says:
    November 20th, 2007 at 12:46 am

    The funniest part would be that the Lib HQ would have them all believe they should be grateful for it too

    No, the funniest part is that they do actually believe it.

  31. BBD @ 576 – yes, nice work.

    I’m feeling very happy with my 89 seat prediction of a few weeks back. Anyone care to revisit the list?

  32. Hahaha, VB, it is only one small step to suspending disbelief in both cases!

    I really think MT has pooped his pants publicly with this one: cronyism, pseudo-science, conflict of interest and probably corrupt use of public funds.

    Wait until the rabid hordes get their teeth into it over the next 24hrs, it will really cruel his chances for high office. Sydney loves a fall, and this little blooper has all the elements of a toffy-nosed knob getting sucked in with magic pills, slinging his mate a few bars, and thinking he wouldn’t get caught with his duds around his ankles and his hand on it.

    Malcolm, you’ve made my day!

  35. VBOW

    Story about rainman,

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Turnbull-denies-donor-influence/2007/11/19/1195321696517.html

    No connection between company getting $10 million government grant and same company making donations to Turnball election fund.

    No connection at all, none, nil nada.

    Company would have made the donations to the libs even if it had not recieved the funding.

    Though why it needed government funding when it had spare cash to donate to an election campaign is a question.

    Should government grants to companies be quarantined like Howard is suggesting with drug users.

    A strict monitoring of those that recieve government grants to ensure they spend the money wisely and don’t just blow it on things not related to the grant and the research.

  36. Re toby @ 150:

    That’s different to the word I’ve heard coming out of Liberal HQ – apparently they’ve pulled the money from Kingston and Richardson’s gone psycho. If you think they’ll win you should put some money on – at $8.50 or so. Also – the tiser has run three polls in kingston – 56%, 57% and 56%.

  37. [That’s different to the word I’ve heard coming out of Liberal HQ – apparently they’ve pulled the money from Kingston and Richardson’s gone psycho. If you think they’ll win you should put some money on – at $8.50 or so. Also – the tiser has run three polls in kingston – 56%, 57% and 56%.]

    The Liberals are only spending money in Boothby and Sturt.

  38. From Strewth in the GG.

    [The lady vanishes (again)

    LABOR’S disappearing celebrity candidate, Nicole Cornes will do it again on Friday, ducking a radio broadcast that will feature all other main candidates in the key Adelaide electorate of Boothby. Cornes was given two weeks’ notice of the appearance by ABC radio but has notified the broadcaster she will not be available because she’ll be out and about. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22786179-25090,00.html

  40. Has anyone else noticed that The Australia’s cover story is whatever Howard’s theme will be for the day?

    Even though bigger stories broke tonight – WorkChoices Mark II, Pseudo Science for Campaign Donations etc

  43. The more I hear about Turnbull, the more I believe no matter what he won’t be on the front bench, either in government or in opposition, or perhaps not even in parliament. Nice way to ruin his political career.

  46. [I think Tony Abott will top himself to try and enduce a sympathy vote]

    Or Janette will develop a Terminal illness for the same result.

  47. I should clarify, the donation did not come from the comapny it appears but from one of the owners of the company.

    THE initial meeting of the Wentworth Forum, the group established to financially back Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull in his battle to retain the federal seat of Wentworth, was shifted at the last minute on Wednesday night from Turnbull’s Point Piper mansion to rooms in nearby Double Bay to avoid media scrutiny. Strewth can report, however, that a veritable who’s who of Sydney’s eastern suburbs turned up — unaffected by the flagfall that ranged from $5500 to $55,000. John Howard opened the proceedings and was welcomed by former colleague Andrew Peacock, publisher Matt Handbury, Ros Packer, car importer Neville Crichton, businessman Charles Curran and investment gurus Peter Yates and Peter Ivany.

  48. Frank, Frank.

    The lady has not vanished.

    She was on 7.30 Report, tonight.

    Undoubtedly, she is choosing her venues.

    She left a card at a friend’s, today.

    ‘sorry I missed you’

Comments are closed.

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