Taverner: Labor leads among mortgage holders

The Sunday Fairfax papers (see here and here) carry a Taverner poll covering mortgage holders only from Sydney and Melbourne, showing a 57-43 lead to Labor. There was apparently a similar poll published during the 2004 campaign which had the Coalition leading 54-46 among this group, but I can’t find any record of it. Seats in which this looks like bad news for the Coalition include La Trobe, McMillan, Corangamite, Deakin and McEwen in and around Melbourne, and Lindsay, Parramatta, Dobell, Robertson and Macarthur in the Sydney area.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

617 comments on “Taverner: Labor leads among mortgage holders”

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  1. Do you have a reference to Hansard?

    I would v.surprised if Gary Nairn backgrounded the Tele on a story days after Combet was enthroned as the Lord of Charlton and Hoare was making noises about running as an independent. I think Sheahan summed up the facts nicely in the SMH last week.

  2. Gee, that Morgan marginal seat polling seems to be horribly under polled.

    “This latest telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on November 15-17, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,670 electors, including 1,025 electors in 22 key L-NP marginal seats.”

    Would that mean that
    (a) his overall Australia-wide sample was not random, and introduced bias into the results, and
    (b) that the 95% confidence interval on state polling (assuming ~50 responses per electorate) is 6-8%, making almost all the marginal figures meaningless?

  3. ShowsOn 521

    Sorry I missed your post before posting mine (slow typist with cricket on in the background) but I agree with every word.

    Really, if Howard goes down the US Republican religeous wedge path, he should be challenged by every journalist in the land. Just look where it leads. You can’t be for one exclusive religeous beleif and say you are also inclusive of all the rest. Its a lie.

    There has been a long standing tradition of not pursuing the personal and religeous beliefs of individuals in Australian politics, but if Howard goes down this road he is fair game. If he supports Christianity, who does he oppose? Does he intend to enshrine Christian beliefs in legislation? Does that mean an end to legal abortion, contraception and legal homosexuality?

    I trust, a la Bill Heffernan’s tactics, that it is still Ok to bear false witness against your neighbor, High Court judge or not. Or are we ppractising selective Christianity? Not suggesting Howard is a hypocrite.

    One more question, if Howard is a Christian, and thinks that is part of his politics, does that mean he obeys the commandments? What about thou shalt not lie? Are non-core promises OK with Howard’s Christian god?

    Australia 1/85, leading by 381

  4. “Western Australia: 3.1% swing away from the ALP in the two key marginal seats surveyed. The swing required to lose each is Hasluck 1.9% and Stirling 2.1%.

    In WA, the two key marginals of Hasluck and Stirling look set to be retained by the Liberal Party. While the ALP marginal seats of Swan and Cowan were not surveyed, if the swing is uniform, these seats could be lost to the Liberal Party.”

    Honestly, I know most of the people of Perth are not that bright (I should know I live here) but are they really that stupid?

  5. [There has been a long standing tradition of not pursuing the personal and religeous beliefs of individuals in Australian politics, but if Howard goes down this road he is fair game. If he supports Christianity, who does he oppose? Does he intend to enshrine Christian beliefs in legislation? Does that mean an end to legal abortion, contraception and legal homosexuality?]

    The fact he is rabbiting on about religion 120 hours from an election suggests he is just trying to appeal to the conservative part of the Liberal base.

    He has completely given up trying to appeal to swinging voters.

  6. 537 – I’m sure Jesus Christ would have been impressed with Howard’s boat people policy – presumably rodent misread the key passage and thought it said the meek shall inherit the detention centres.

  7. Morgan says that there is a 6.6% swing to Labor in SA, giving it Kingston & Makin, but it might not give them Wakefield.

    Wakefield needs 0.7%.

    What are they on!

  8. To use a Biblical term: The good people of Australia are gonna smite Team Rodent on the 24th.

    Forget about baseball and cricket bats. I predict there’ll be run on asses’ jawbones on ebay before the week is out.

    Luckily, I already have mine.

  9. Oh well, it worked for George, so Howard figures he’s now got nothing to lose, and he’s right, because he’s already lost it, in all senses.

    (Howard and his imaginary friend will turn the tide on those evil socialists! Ha!)

  10. ShowsOn 556
    “He has completely given up trying to appeal to swinging voters.”

    I’m sure you are right but even so, to me this path is so dangerous that it really ought to be stamped out hard. One of the big differences between Australia and the US was that traditionally Australia was not that religeous. Does Howard want to change that, making this an overtlly religeous land? He should be asked.

  11. ShowsON,

    I’ll bet you a $100 contribution to William and the upkeep of this blog if Newspoll is better than 53-47 for Labor on Tuesday? What do you say, should be easy pickings if you are that confident?

    Any other takers?

  12. Yes New Aussie 55-45 does seem out there and all year I have been expecting them to come in to 53-47 but just when this appears to happen something has happened sending the polls back to which they come.

  13. Greetings all,

    Have been up the bush for a week, sans broadband (or any other internet connection, for that matter – save the odd SMS when i climb a mountain …). Have had access to treeware but that is like looking at an inceberg … all tip, you know (although from what I gather there won’t be any left shortly …)

    Anyway, would any fellow PB be kind enough to give me a dot point summary of the week since Monday last?

    Ta muchly!

  14. Re Howards’ “War on Drugs” ( a bit like that other roaring sucess, the War on Error!): so he’s going to have the government running its own football team?

  15. CL:

    Dot point: Game over (fiscal conservatism card played at Labor launching by spending a quarter of Howard’s pledges at his launch two days earlier).

  16. Watching Channel 10 news here in Adelaide (for want of anything better to do) and the stupid interest rates under Labor ad showing Whitlam, Keating and Hawke just played twice in a row, back to back. So, is the new Liberal tactic to annoy people into voting for them on Saturday?! Sheesh.

  17. 552

    Well spotted. Roy Morgan, hang your head in shame.

    Making any comment on individual electorates is ridiculous as the MOE on each is 14%!!!!
    After choosing 50 from each of the 22 marginal electorates, they must have chosen an average of 5(!!) from the other 127. Even averaged out the MOE on this additional 600 is 4%
    The whole 1670 sample must be a very biassed sample skewed towards the heavily targetted marginals, making the 2% overall MOE meaningless.
    NB: all Maths Stats teachers and lecturers: save the comments accompaying this survey. What a great exam question or assignment!

  18. @565 well the AFL will seek a 17th licence should the Kangas stay put, the Libs could apply through the Regional Partnerships Program for a grant.

    They might have enough MPs left to field a team – should be able to scrape together an AFL list of 40 players.

  19. 554,

    Long range forcast for Liverpool, NSW has 27-29 and no precip in sight ….. I am going straight away after breakfast and just get it out of the way.

  20. Feeding Morgan into Antony’s machine I get 87 ALP to 61 LNP seats. Thats with the addition of 3.1% NT and status quo ACT. (and max 10% Qld instead of Morgan’s 13 something %)

  21. Re 560,

    Kirribilli Removals Says:

    November 18th, 2007 at 5:51 pm
    Oh well, it worked for George, so Howard figures he’s now got nothing to lose, and he’s right, because he’s already lost it, in all senses.

    (Howard and his imaginary friend will turn the tide on those evil socialists! Ha!)

    Maybe that is why his campaign has been so horrid, he borrowed best mate GB campaign strategists. 😉

  22. Here in Forrest the signs are great, the poles are standing up well. (in my yard anyway) Had ’em 4 weeks now – they don’t usually last more than a few nights.
    No animus, just plenty of apathy me thinks. Thanks to Brian Mc @ 474. More
    signage poll input anyone? It’s certainly different this time – go kevvviii !!!

  23. i,ll take you on esj. as long as william agrees to confirm the money was paid and the bet is 53 or higher for lab. and 47 or lower for libs.

  24. 564 CL de Footscray ,

    Libs campaign launch on Monday. Lands like a lead balloon, and an expensive one at that. Labor campaign launch on Wednesday. Goes over like a treat, spends less at his launch by 25% compared to Howard. Hawke, Whitlam and Keating there in unison to cheer him on. Abbott has another case of foot in mouth disease mid week regarding Work Choices. Gov. Auditor General department releases scathing report on government handling of a major grants funds type program. Re. last item – a real scandal brewing there. Potential problems with Newhouse in Wentworth (legal nomination?) put to rest when NSW govt. official said his resignation was in order. Don’t think I forgot anything.

  25. ESJ

    I hope that is a core-promise of yours to pay on Labour having 54+ 2PP. You can understand why I would ask. For William’s sake.

  26. 576 Libsrok

    I said better than 53-47 for Labor on Newspoll and I’l stand by that. With respect 53 or better for Labor and 47 or better for Liberal doesnt make sense.

    I am happy for William to confirm and validate if its acceptable to him.

    Given 8 months of solid polls surely its an easy way of bleeding me of $100 and contributing to the Poll Bludger community service, surely?

    What say you comrade?

  27. All the marginal seat polls are going in different directions. Really, we can only rely on the nation-wide polls, which are all very consistent and looking good for Labor.

    The message probably is that election night is going to be very exciting. There’s no expectation that, because one state swings, the next will, or because one marginal seat swings, the next will. And because the Qld, NT and WA results will come in later, no-one will be claiming victory or conceding defeat till very late at night.

    Speaking of TV advertising tonight, there have been a few Labor ads on Channel 9 this evening during the cricket and the news. I think the “I won’t” Labor ad is pretty good.

    And a bit of subliminal advertising on the cricket – they interviewed Brett Lee, who said he always put family first!

  28. The following list are seats which if as I suspect may happen and that is next Saturday follows the past decade of state results, now this list includes some very safe seats which may explain why the marginal seat polling isn’t as impressive as the national TPP polling looks to be, and no I don’t expect the ALP to win all these seats

    I will point out I have put no research into it so it should be seen as a rough overlay of federal and state results at the height of ALP’s state domominat, which means Carr 99, Bracks 02 etc.

    Braddon, Bass, Deakin, McMillan, Corrangamitte, Lt Trobe, McEwen, Higgins, Dunkley, Goldstein, Casey, Parramatta, Lindsay, Edan Monaro, Bennenlong, Dobell, Paterson, Roberton, Hughes, Gilmore, Macarthur, Kingston, Wakefield, Makin, Stuart, Hasluck, Striling, Kalgoorlie, Canning, Pearce, Bonner, Moreton, Blair, Herbert, Longman, Petrie, Hinkler, Bowman, Dickson, Dawson, Leichhart, Wide Bay, Fairfax, McPherson, Moncrief

    giving the ALP 105, extremely unlikely but the ALP only need half of them.

    Howard now attempting to use God, this tells me that the cupboard is empty and wont work for Kevin Rudd is a committed Christan, I think those who see this as about the Senate are right for Australians don’t like their Polly’s inciting God.

  29. OK subject to William’s approval lock it in Libsrok.

    Socrates are you game? Any other takers? I’ll check back in at 730 to finalise.

    I think naming and shaming is sufficient for those who welch, subject to William’s OK of course?

  30. ESJ

    Do your own research, or get one of your slaves to do it. Nairn was the one who released ComCar info.

    How else does a Deptmental enquiry become public. 🙂

  31. Working on the premise that most about these parts are Kevin07 types, when it comes to election night would you prefer:

    A: Early indications from the tally room that the Coalition, against all odds, is going to be returned to government. Followed by a virtual concession by one of the Labor commentators. Followed by shocks results from WA which seal a narrow Labor victory.


    B: A clear victory by Labor by 15 seats, called early and clean by Anthony Green about 8.10pm, without any roller-coaster ride to add excitement and “memorability” to the night.

  32. Can’t see God intervening to save the Liberal Party when he was apparently less than interested in responding to Howard’ prayers for rain (which was a much more worthwhile cause).

  33. Kirribillii Removals

    thankyou for your sanity. trust you will be outside el hacienda hyacynthe and rodent, sunday am 25 november and we shall play bad tracks like YOu’re moving out today” and “eve of destruction” AND “Bye,bye baby, baby bye bye”…..

    and my favourite:

    “turn on the lights” by coleen hewitt

    and Psephos

    well spotted…time roy got a new press release writer…same our journos aren’t so acute

    and can anyone tell me what el rodente was doing baning on about “banan republics” today…something about latin american funds…ie, david murray of Future Fund fame is probably investing in them Peter

    and by the way, didn’t Peter sell $3 billion of gold a few years ago when selling gold was in fashion

    that should help us when the tsunami strikes

    And did Paul Kelly, Barry Cassidy, Laurie Oakes, Mark Reilly, et al ask any questions about this issue…

    me thinks the “economic credibility” question is for our august press gallery to answer….

  34. The Channel 9, 6pm news had howard and Constello attacking Rudd for not mentioning the economy in his first five things.

    The drugs policy got a mention, Rudd dissmissed it for the cr*p it is. (no mention of the Greens for those looking for a wedge…)

    Second story was on the climate change report – unfortunately didn’t have Howard saying the world won’t end tomorrow.

  35. i’m up for it of course depending on william if he is not comfy with it i’ll happily agree to swap emails and be prepared to post them and have a private bet. it goes to a worthy cause anyway.

  36. re post 583
    would take out…… Higgins, Moncrief, Hinkler, Wide bay, pearce, Fairfax
    add : Ryan, Flynn,Fisher, North Sydney , Solomon
    ADD: calare & forrest …… INDEPENDENT
    But basically you are talking about approx 40 extra seats that are possible

  37. @ 510 Grog Says:

    On centrebet the LNP has come in to $4.35 – I’m guessing a few found the $4.50-$5.00 too big to resist.

    @ 126 Hr 42 Min Sportsbet offer ALP $1.20 Coalition $4.50

  38. OK, I’m as much of a Kevvie cheerleader as the next one here, but something really puzzles me.

    As far as I can work out, Rudd has matched the Howard-Abbott line on junk food advertising.

    Surely to GOD — the Labor one — this would have been a fantastic election campaign policy. Howard and Abbott are clearly in the pocket of the big food companies, their pro-business policy is playing a role in giving tens of thousands of kids obesity, diabetes, and down the track, heart disease.

    Why is it not Labor policy to ban junk food advertising, or at least restrict it more heavily? Is it a campaign donation thing, or what? Surely this would be hugely popular with anyone who has kids (it might put off that important demographic of multinational fast food company board directors, but hey…)

  39. Bob Brown responds to the drug “wedge”

    Greens leader Bob Brown says the Coalition’s plan targets users instead of drug traffickers.

    “This seems to be [going to] cut them off, leave them isolated, leave them more desperate,” he said.

    But Senator Brown has backed another part of the Coalition’s proposed drug crackdown, which would see extra employment assistance for those with substance abuse problems and a federal push for nationally consistent penalties for drug offences.

  40. Had my $100 free bet at sportingbet on Maxine @ $2.40 and got $1.28 for $30.00 on Rudd.

    Should be a good night Saturday and if the result is known early, I will enjoy the rest of the night watching the lead increase.

    I won’t feel that it is an anti-climax waiting for WA to see just how big the win is.

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