Morgan phone poll: 56-44

Morgan has published results of a large-sample phone poll of 1670 respondents, “including 1,025 electors in 22 key L-NP marginal seats”. This has focused on seven such seats in New South Wales, pointing to a swing of 7.7 per cent, four in Victoria for 4.8 per cent, four in Queensland for 13.9 per cent, three in South Australia for 6.6 per cent, two in Tasmania for 9.9 per cent, and two in Western Australia for a swing of 3.1 per cent away from Labor. I am unsure on what basis Morgan has arrived at the conclusion that “the ALP looks set to win between 14 and 24 seats”. We are told without explanation that the swing in NSW is “not uniform” and that “the L-NP could still hold Bennelong, Dobell and Wentworth”, without any corresponding allowance for Labor gaining seats outside the range. Despite the swing in South Australia, it is apparently the case that Labor might not win Wakefield, which I find extremely difficult to believe. The overall result of the poll is a 46.5 per cent primary vote for Labor and 40 per cent for the Coalition, for a two-party preferred result of 56-44. It would require tremendous creativity to build a scenario from these figures that would only deliver Labor 14 seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

678 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 56-44”

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  1. William says: “whose hobbies include sending me threatening emails”
    William, are you serious? Wasn’t he the guy collecting all the predictions?

  2. No 598

    The problem with Rove is that he’s not funny. Never has been, never will be.

    I’d rather him charged with treason and gaoled, then have him on the airwaves spruiking the awful Hughes, whose only claim to fame is to shout at the camera and hope that someone laughs. Despicable fool.

  3. @533:

    No no, I’ve bet $200.00 on the Coalition to hold on.

    I’m certain of it, and dreading the gloating that will ensue as a result of the massive comeback. It will be worse than 2004…

    Minchin, I’m looking at you!

    I can’t believe the universal belief in a Labor win. Hartcher, Megalogenis, GREEN! You should all know better!

    And Ramsey, poor Alan Ramsey – remember last time, his SMH piece on election day? Labor to win – “Believe it.” Then he went on holidays for a few months…

    Worse to come this time, mates.

  4. [lmao. Well I do feel magnificent wearing my new bespoke mediocre hacksuit. So much better than the parrot in a tweed waistcoat.]

    G.P. doesn’t need to practice, he was BORN TO RULE!

    Trust me – he’s on the way to a senate near you.

    [Still this is Howard he’s a old man let’s face it how many 68 year olds have been on Rove?]

    That’s why it would’ve been good Glen, something unexpected. I mean he’s tried everything else to reel Rudd in, but nothing has worked.

  5. It’s not anger paul k i just don’t approve of that type of ‘comedy’. I mean we all love a laugh but i hardly think calling another man’s wife a man is funny i hope you wouldn’t find that amusing either. Anyway Rove had far more things he could bring up that don’t include insulting his wife.

    Swing Lowe

    The Narrowing The Narrowing LOL BTW its just a poll of 411 but i suppose its got a small MOE considering it is an electorate poll i dunno.
    Still it’s probably due to Kelly saying the hit list was back in town and then retracting it.

    Kirribilli Removals

    You forgot to mention the Latin American housing financing Rudd touted about WA lol another WA Inc if you ask me lol!

  6. GP,

    I know I’ve asked it before but why are you so full of anger that you want to strike out at everyone who doesn’t agree with you? How can you possibly pretend to believe in democracy when you are constantly going on about walking all over people’s basic human rights.

    Proverbs: 25:28 – If you cannot control your anger, you are helpless…

  7. OK GP now that the Rove stuff is settled (remember there are other channels) what is your take on Wentworth 52-48 on a sampling size of 900?

  8. This fatuous bullshit is just another rope around his neck. It is obvious he is in full on panic mode. Blind Freddy could see it in his body language and general demeanor. Like many I really, really want them to take to each other though it may be a forlorn hope.

    God Costello has fallen on his sword. What possessed the man to go down with the ship. I never voted for them cause I new they were mean and tricky bastards and really they are demonstrating gross stupidity supported by a number of journalist at the GG who are implicit in the downfall (Shanaham, Albrchtwatever, Overington, Kelly) with a smattering of others elsewhere Bolt (don’t believe the religious conversion) and that dumb idiot Akerman etc.

    By not being objective and keeping the conservatives honest they have directly contributed to the downfall. I certainly won’t give them the time of day after this lot. Oh sweet revenge.

  9. No 615

    One might ask the same question to you, and others, over your anger expressed toward John Howard, who by all measurements is the greatest prime minister in Australia’s parliamentary history.

    Secondly, I do not need a bible to guide my behaviour. Written by deluded prophets, it is a vehicle of mind control.

  10. [I know I’ve asked it before but why are you so full of anger that you want to strike out at everyone who doesn’t agree with you?]

    To be pre-selected for the Liberals in the senate you MUST have a law degree. G.P. is yet to complete his law degree because he keeps failing Tort law, and his minor subject on democratic theory. Ergo, G.P. is a frustrated person.

  11. Thanks ShowsOn @ 618.

    Btw, looking at the ‘undecided’ figure in the E-M poll (13%), the Libs would have to win over 73% of those undecideds in the last week in order to bring it back to 50-50 (if the poll numbers are correct).

    Unless the Libs have an incredible week of campaigning, this isn’t going to happen.

    Labor to win in E-M.

  12. [ your anger expressed toward John Howard, who by all measurements is the greatest prime minister in Australia’s parliamentary history. ]

    So that’s your excuse for wanting to end Australia’s democracy and jail anyone who doesn’t believe in your vision of what society should be like. John Howard is more important than democracy.

  13. No 617

    Newhouse really is an imbecile. I don’t believe he’ll win at all.

    For all the hatred toward John Howard, Malcolm is actually a talented person and is worthy of a seat in parliament.

    Newhouse is flat out turning up to the community debate. He’s afraid of the media. Bloody hell, if he’s such a whimp, why the hell would anyone vote for him?

  14. NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS NT
    Newspoll 6.5 8.5 8.5 8.0
    Galaxy 7.5 4.5 5.0 1.0 4.5
    Morgan 7.7 4.8 13.9 -3.1 6.6 9.9
    Ave 7.2 5.9 9.1 -0.7 6.4 3.3 Total
    ALP Gains 10 4 10 -1 4 2 1 30
    Parramatta (0.8) Deakin (5.0) Bonner (0.5) Swan (-0.08) Kingston (0.7) Braddon (1.1) Solomon (2.8)
    Lindsay (2.9) McMillan (5.0) Moreton (2.8) Makin (0.9) Bass (2.6)
    Eden-Monaro (3.3) Corangamite (5.7) Blair (5.7) Boothby (5.4)
    Page (5.5) La Trobe (5.8) Herbert (6.2)
    Paterson (6.3) Longman (6.7)
    Cowper (6.7) Petrie (7.5)
    Robertson (6.9) Flynn (7.7)
    Hinkler (8.3)
    Dickson (8.9)
    Bowman (8.9) 27
    Claimed in Doubt Wentworth (2.8) Wakefield (0.7) 4
    Bennelong (4.1)
    Dobell (4.8)
    In outer range McEwen (6.4) Dawson (10.0) Sturt (6.8) 11
    Gippsland (7.7) Leichhardt (10.3)
    Ryan (10.4)
    Fisher (11.0)
    Forde (11.5)
    Wide Bay (12.2)
    Fairfax (12.4)
    McPherson (13.9) Range 27-42 seats

  15. [One might ask the same question to you, and others, over your anger expressed toward John Howard, who by all measurements is the greatest prime minister in Australia’s parliamentary history.]

    The previous P.M. was – among other things – much taller.

    Stop telling lies.

  16. Generic Person don’t let the lefties get the better of you, trust me they can be a pain going up against 100 of them but still to the arguments and more often than not you’ll come out on top of the misguided. The problem is some of them dislike any opposition to their views on this blog, maybe we can provoke them but we don’t intend to, i guess our views provoke them more likely lol!.

    Anyway just think of all the quotes we can use on Sunday should we win, it will be hilarious.

  17. No 625

    I did not advocate gaoling anyone who disagreed with my vision. I merely said that Rove should be gaoled for his rabid imbecility.

  18. Andrew I know where you’re coming from… but personally I’ve never managed to be able to bring myself to bet on the Coalition to win. It just feels wrong.

    I find it amazing some people think Howard is the best PM. But then some people think Gough was the best.

  19. #620

    “Written by deluded prophets, it is a vehicle of mind control.”, Says GP about the bible.

    It has also formed the basis of Westminster Law that is used in out nation. One should not be so quick as to write of a text which provides moral and ethical guidelines on various aspects of life, that a large number of people still respect. How, pray tell, is it a tool of mind control? Telling people to love their neighbour, or not be obsessed with materialism etc?

  20. So much for Shannon Noll’s support for the Nats.

    [SINGER Shannon Noll epitomises country life, but he and his family have been forced to leave the land because of the drought.

    Australian Idol’s biggest star comes from five generations of farmers who spent more than 100 years on the land.

    But the drought crisis has forced Noll and his brothers, Damian and Adam, to leave the land permanently.

    They have sold the family farm in Condobolin, NSW, and desperate efforts at share farming and contracting will be their last.]

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22778758-5012990,00.html

  21. [Newhouse really is an imbecile. I don’t believe he’ll win at all.]

    I wish Newhouse was even more stupid, because it would just make his victory all the more sweeter.

  22. I agree with the others, if Howard/Costello win I am emigrating as well.

    What has happened to this country over the last decade has been highly disturbing on many levels.

    Australia used to be a fair and just society. But now, now there is a real mean spirited undercurrent to the place.

    We have become a fearful, divided, self-centered society that has lost its compassion. As some have said, it’s not a society anymore, it’s an economy.

    But I believe many have woken up to this fact now, and many now look to Rudd to steer this country back on the right course.

    This time next week, we will be living in a new era:)

  23. BTW was it a good idea for Rudd to say he’ll consult over Dec and Jan on political issues with former Labor PMs like Whitlam, Hawke and Keating???

    I hardly think it’s a good move to say your political confidant will be Paul J Keating!

    It justs gives us tories more ammo to use against Kev.

    Generic Person, we all know Newhouse is a stooge even the Laborites dislike him, did you see him on the 7:30 Report refusing to say whether he backed the pulp mill and he just said Malcolm made the decision, what a party hack.

  24. ShowsOn Says: “I wish Newhouse was even more stupid, because it would just make his victory all the more sweeter.”

    ha ha ha ha 🙂

  25. Rove asks Rudd if that means his wife is a man (and every viewer in Oz understands the joke, including Kevin Rudd) and he gets a laugh.

    OR:

    Rove asks Rudd if that means his wife is a man, and Kevin leans over and decks him.

    Now, which one of those is a fantasy from someone with a little aggression problem?

  26. 620 Generic Person Says: November 19th, 2007 at 12:22 am

    One might ask the same question to you, and others, over your anger expressed toward John Howard, who by all measurements is the greatest prime minister in Australia’s parliamentary history.

    One does not become great by knowingly demonizing helpless people.

  27. 608 JHIAC. Anyone with your sig shouldn’t talk about drivel. People mentioned Rove as related to how it may help him win votes. I pointed out what he has to put up with to do that. I’ll leave it at that.

  28. [ I merely said that Rove should be gaoled for his rabid imbecility. ]

    GP,

    Perhaps you would like to let me know how that would work in a democracy?

  29. [Generic Person, we all know Newhouse is a stooge even the Laborites dislike him, did you see him on the 7:30 Report refusing to say whether he backed the pulp mill and he just said Malcolm made the decision, what a party hack.]

    No, that was perfect, the message was clear – Turnbull made the decision, so he can take all the blame for it.

  30. Samuel K,

    The overround on each market is different. How many decimal places do you want to go to adjust the odds.

    My 470 comment is based on principle. Just do the opposite with Liberal and then adjust both seat totals back to equal 150.

Comments are closed.

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