Morgan phone poll: 56-44

Morgan has published results of a large-sample phone poll of 1670 respondents, “including 1,025 electors in 22 key L-NP marginal seats”. This has focused on seven such seats in New South Wales, pointing to a swing of 7.7 per cent, four in Victoria for 4.8 per cent, four in Queensland for 13.9 per cent, three in South Australia for 6.6 per cent, two in Tasmania for 9.9 per cent, and two in Western Australia for a swing of 3.1 per cent away from Labor. I am unsure on what basis Morgan has arrived at the conclusion that “the ALP looks set to win between 14 and 24 seats”. We are told without explanation that the swing in NSW is “not uniform” and that “the L-NP could still hold Bennelong, Dobell and Wentworth”, without any corresponding allowance for Labor gaining seats outside the range. Despite the swing in South Australia, it is apparently the case that Labor might not win Wakefield, which I find extremely difficult to believe. The overall result of the poll is a 46.5 per cent primary vote for Labor and 40 per cent for the Coalition, for a two-party preferred result of 56-44. It would require tremendous creativity to build a scenario from these figures that would only deliver Labor 14 seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

678 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 56-44”

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  1. I’m not sure you’re really getting it, wpc, as Rove is about levity and taking the p!ss. Rudd wouldn’t name a bloke or else the Dear Leader would be running the clip with the line: Would you vote for gay?

    There’s no way, so Rudd said the only thing he could and Rove had to dump a quip on him. It’s really all about nothing, and to claim that means anything is really saying a lot about yourself. It was not an insult to his wife, but of course, you would no doubt hit the first bloke that made a joke to you? Go on, tell us!

  2. Well, the waters are well and truly muddied now. People might actually think their vote matters. The question is, who is doing the muddying?

  3. Don’t worry LTEP you’ve convinced me over these last few months that you really are just a very worried ALP supporter and not a troll. A valued contributor actually. You keep our feet on the ground.

  4. kirribilli is right. copping it on the chin is what its all about. dont you think howard would like to lash out at the people who call him as asshole when he’s out walking. the fact that a tv personality can call the future pm’s wife a ‘man’ is a sign of our freedom.

  5. [Don’t worry LTEP you’ve convinced me over these last few months that you really are just a very worried ALP supporter and not a troll. A valued contributor actually. You keep our feet on the ground.]

    I agree. I have no idea why he cops so much crap.

  6. George, Sweet dreams & hallelujah to that! That would be the most Earth shattering win Australian politics next to “PIP’ losing Bennelong. Pip ‘n Tip out on their asses! Have mercy!

    Maybe the Greens will help us get over the line!

  7. Bit of an odd poll in Wentworth:

    Primaries have Turnbull 45, Newhouse 36, Greens 17!

    And then the minor party preference favour Newhouse 86-14!!!

    MOE is 3% btw

  8. the ACN seems to support my theory that Turnbull leaked the doubt about his candidacy: most likely knowing full well that the 1918 amendment meant that Newhouse was eligible.

  9. [Generic Person says “I would have Rove charged and put in gaol.”

    Then you good sir, are a fascist.]

    I wouldn’t go that far. He just has a hatred for democracy. 😛

  10. 546
    Generic Person Says:
    November 18th, 2007 at 11:57 pm
    No 539 “….a petulant…dunce.”

    Awesome rhetoric, GP. Do you have to practice this generic malice? or does it come involuntarily?

  11. Some of you guys need a little faith. Poss holds the line and holds the numbers. They are too consistent for too long. Ain’t gonna swing 750,000 people cause that’s what is needed. This guy is the stats freak from hell and all the posts are positive Labor is going to win. Murder is the only other solution. Stop the ”if only” counter factuals and get with the program. The Rodenty little scumbag, swill monger is going down. Up to now have been reasonably controlled but his latest attack on drug users is just another low act from a dirty sleazy little creep. Off to church this morning and beat up the addicts in the afternoon.

    Oh! and I thought we all need to panic because the banana republic is on its way. Little Johny says so and if God says so it must be the case. I am saving up banana leaves for my grass hut. Boogolly boogolly Boo! Gotta keep the dumb plebs in fear. Little Johnny’s tip and the iceberg have sunk into the deep reaches of hell. Araldite ain’t gonna do it this time.

  12. Labor bloggers need to be consistent !!

    Some have taken Morgan’s OVERALL seat result of 54% 2 PP of the 22 marginals etc combined AGAINST 2004 Labor’s 46.3% 2PP to say there is a 7.7% swing showing. OK

    BUT Galaxy’s Poll NATIONAL average of the 20 seats of 4,000 voters that they DID poll PRODUCES A NATIONAL AVERAGE OF THOSE 20 SEATS of Labor 2PP of 50.8%

    Galaxy’s 4,000 voters is a bigger sample than Morgan’s 1670 voters polled

    I’m getting the feeling ALL of the ‘marginal’ seat Poll results do not even give an answer on the NATIONAL 2PP simply because even Morgan’s and Galaxy’s NATIONAL totals are too far apart from each other

    Has anyone any feedback

  13. [ Prime Minister John Howard, who will campaign in Perth today, accused Labor leader Kevin Rudd of softening up Western Australians for the end of the mining boom if Labor was elected. ]

    WTF. Now Howard is saying the Chinese will stop buying our ore if Labor is elected. What a load of crap.

  14. [Bit of an odd poll in Wentworth:

    Primaries have Turnbull 45, Newhouse 36, Greens 17!

    And then the minor party preference favour Newhouse 86-14!!!

    MOE is 3% btw]

    Looks like Rudd is trying to lock in those Green’s preference flows:

    I thought a lot of the green vote in wentworth would be Liberals casting a protest vote that would end up with the libs anyway.

  15. nath either that or a sign of Rove’s lack of candor or humour.

    You don’t call the man who would be king’s wife a man that’s just not cool. Humour and free speech is one thing calling a man’s wife a man is another.

  16. 552 KR. You say my wife is a man in front of me, and you will be sitting on your arse (unless you are woman). Make jokes about me all you want, but the wife and family are not negotiable. There was a time when all men would have said the same, but that time is obviously long gone. Now we are the nation of SNAGS.

    I understand, and approve of the answer Rudd gave. Rove could have said “But she looks like a woman to me” which would have been fine. Instead he was a rude jerk.

    But the point is, Rudd couldn’t even defend his wife verbally (and you could tell he was upset) for fear of losing votes.

  17. Glen, Im not saying it was tasteful. I wouldn’t have done it. but the fact that he did do it and will go about his business tomorrow is a good thing. Or do you think people should be charged for making unmannerly comment?

  18. [nath either that or a sign of Rove’s lack of candor or humour.

    You don’t call the man who would be king’s wife a man that’s just not cool. Humour and free speech is one thing calling a man’s wife a man is another.]

    It was a JOKE.

    We take the piss, we are Australians, that’s our go.

    But Dr, why didn’t “Howie” go on the show? It was all pretty harmless really. He may of said something funny and pulled a few votes. He’s trailing by ~750,000 in the 18 – 34 demographic, which means there’s lots of votes he could pick up.

    Preaching only to the converted becomes a self defeating exercise during elections.

  19. Ron Brown, the 50.8% 2PP is what’s being suggested if the swings in the marginals are exactly the swings nationally. Note that on a uniform swing on this level (plugging in the state by states) it would suggest a narrow ALP victory. But if we factor in seats that are unlikely to fall into the equation I’d say it would result in a narrow Coalition win.

    Now, this is only if you believe the swing will be restricted to the seats polled. It’s possible some seats that weren’t polled could be swinging enough to go Labor. In fact, it’s even likely that at least one or two seats outside the seats polled will go to Labor.

    I still don’t think it’s going to be the 100+ victory that a handful of people here have predicted though.

  20. Aussieguru01 Says: “Maybe the Greens will help us get over the line!”

    That’s another factor too. Either way I’ll have fun handing out how-to-vote cards in one of the most Liberal booth in Higgins 😉

  21. So despite all the negatives thrown at Newhouse, despite Turnbull’s buckets of money, despite his desperate pandering to the gay community and the Jewish community, Newhouse is still ahead, and in fact is further ahead than in the last Wentworth poll! This is VERY bad news for the NSW Libs. If they are trailing in Wentworth, despite all Turnbull’s advantaged and all Labor’s campaign stuffups, they must be heading for a smashing in the other NSW seats.

  22. paul k, I think it’s Howard line that Rudd’s IR changes will supposedly kill the mining boom.

    Ah, pray tell, how?

    Further, Rudd was saying that instead of leaving WA looking like Nauru, (and as destitute), it may be a good idea for Perth to become a financial centre that handles Chinese and SE Asian investment funds. OK, you’d think someone like Turnbull would applaud such a notion?

    Nup? He slagged Rudd for even suggesting such a ‘bizarre notion’. How’s that, coming from an investment banker? Politics makes people say strange things.

  23. No no Nath not when they say stuff like that. Sedition is one thing, ‘comedy’ is another. Despite that Rove’s comments were a shame. Perhaps if Howard didn’t want to go on Rove he could of appeared on Antiques Roadshow to sure up the oldies. Still this is Howard he’s a old man let’s face it how many 68 year olds have been on Rove?

    Let’s not be too hard on old Howie he’s the PM and he doesn’t need to sell himself like Rudd has to. People already know Howard can do the job, people are considering Labor despite not knowing a lot about Rudd.

  24. has anyone else seen these ‘focus on australia’ group adds

    something about a green dodo and not wasting your vote.

    I swear im not stoned… (i want my welfare :P)

  25. 577
    Generic Person Says:
    November 19th, 2007 at 12:06 am
    No 572….”I don’t need practice when it comes to criticising leftist hacks, so resplendent in their mediocrity.”
    lmao. Well I do feel magnificent wearing my new bespoke mediocre hacksuit. So much better than the parrot in a tweed waistcoat.

  26. Glen and GP,

    I can’t believe you guys are now attacking Rove. Do you guys hate everyone? GP has always been full of anger, but Glen you at least used to be reasonable.

  27. mad cow Says: “George, looks like you’re gonna be the first guy to notice Smirky going down. Do be sure to report on what you see”

    MC, I’m at the booth early morning, then I’ll be home organising for a party later. We’ll have the ABC on the TV, on the web (on the first 24″ LCD) and this blog on another. It’ll be fun 🙂

  28. From the Age article:

    “The Coalition hopes to win two seats from Labor in Western Australia, while ceding five in South Australia and Tasmania and holding station in Victoria. This would require Labor to snare 15 seats in NSW and Queensland.”

    Now lets do some maths here. -2 + 5 = 3

    3 + 15 = 18.

    Where are they getting the 18 seats from? It’s even a step up from the Australian’s 17.

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