Patterson: 53-47 to Labor in Eden-Monaro

The Sydney Morning Herald reports on a Patterson Market Research poll from Eden-Monaro showing Labor’s Mike Kelly leading Gary Nairn 53-47 on two-party preferred. The primary vote figures, absurdly given to one decimal place, are 43.3 per cent for Kelly and 42.3 per cent for Nairn. A similar poll a month ago gave Kelly a two party lead of 56-44, with the primary vote gap at 48 per cent to 41 per cent. The sample for the latest poll was 411.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

28 comments on “Patterson: 53-47 to Labor in Eden-Monaro”

  1. So thats a 6.3% swing, Newspoll ave NSW marg 6.5%, ave of newspoll/Galaxy/Morgan in NSW =7.2% (this sounds like the 1% Nairn’s personal vote/sitting member adv) ALP on target for 28 seats

  2. Yes IC More… I think I’ve seen somewhere else that Eden-Monaro tends to swing a fair bit less than the State swing.

  3. True, it has long had smaller swings, always gets lots of attention as the so called Litmus seat, which would probably be a bit like living in a constant tight marginal- well its that too, also yielding lower swings

  4. NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS NT
    Newspoll 6.5 8.5 8.5 8.0
    Galaxy 7.5 4.5 5.0 1.0 4.5
    Morgan 7.7 4.8 13.9 -3.1 6.6 9.9
    Ave 7.2 5.9 9.1 -0.7 6.4 3.3 Total
    ALP Gains 10 4 10 -1 4 2 1 30
    Parramatta (0.8) Deakin (5.0) Bonner (0.5) Swan (-0.08) Kingston (0.7) Braddon (1.1) Solomon (2.8)
    Lindsay (2.9) McMillan (5.0) Moreton (2.8) Makin (0.9) Bass (2.6)
    Eden-Monaro (3.3) Corangamite (5.7) Blair (5.7) Boothby (5.4)
    Page (5.5) La Trobe (5.8) Herbert (6.2)
    Paterson (6.3) Longman (6.7)
    Cowper (6.7) Petrie (7.5)
    Robertson (6.9) Flynn (7.7)
    Hinkler (8.3)
    Dickson (8.9)
    Bowman (8.9) 27
    Claimed in Doubt Wentworth (2.8) Wakefield (0.7) 4
    Bennelong (4.1)
    Dobell (4.8)
    In outer range McEwen (6.4) Dawson (10.0) Sturt (6.8) 11
    Gippsland (7.7) Leichhardt (10.3)
    Ryan (10.4)
    Fisher (11.0)
    Forde (11.5)
    Wide Bay (12.2)
    Fairfax (12.4)
    McPherson (13.9) Range 27-42 seats

  5. NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS NT
    Newspoll 6.5 8.5 8.5 8.0
    Galaxy 7.5 4.5 5.0 1.0 4.5
    Morgan 7.7 4.8 13.9 -3.1 6.6 9.9
    Ave 7.2 5.9 9.1 -0.7 6.4 3.3 Total
    ALP Gains 10 4 10 -1 4 2 1 30
    Parramatta (0.8) Deakin (5.0) Bonner (0.5) Swan (-0.08) Kingston (0.7) Braddon (1.1) Solomon (2.8)
    Lindsay (2.9) McMillan (5.0) Moreton (2.8) Makin (0.9) Bass (2.6)
    Eden-Monaro (3.3) Corangamite (5.7) Blair (5.7) Boothby (5.4)
    Page (5.5) La Trobe (5.8) Herbert (6.2)
    Paterson (6.3) Longman (6.7)
    Cowper (6.7) Petrie (7.5)
    Robertson (6.9) Flynn (7.7)
    Hinkler (8.3)
    Dickson (8.9)
    Bowman (8.9) 27
    Claimed in Doubt Wentworth (2.8) Wakefield (0.7) 4
    Bennelong (4.1)
    Dobell (4.8)
    In outer range McEwen (6.4) Dawson (10.0) Sturt (6.8) 11
    Gippsland (7.7) Leichhardt (10.3)
    Ryan (10.4)
    Fisher (11.0)
    Forde (11.5)
    Wide Bay (12.2)
    Fairfax (12.4)
    McPherson (13.9) Range 27-42 seats Landslide enough!

  6. Wide Bay, Fairfax and Fisher?

    I grew up on the Sunshine Coast. The Ruddslide is on, but we’re not winning Wide Bay or Fairfax, surely. I’m from Noosa originally, formerly in Fairfax and now in Wide Bay – lots of young hospitality workers affected by WorkChoices, but it won’t be enough to sway the seat. Too many Liberal heartland suburbs and Wide Bay has Gympie in it, aka One Nation/National party heartland. Gympie is redneck country. (No offense to any non right wing lunatics who happen to live there, of course)

    It would make my night though to see the end of Somlyay and Truss. Possibly even more than seeing Howard and Turnbull lose their seats ­čÖé

  7. Yes dont worry only on Morgans crazy 13.9% swing prediction would these seats come accross- highly unlikely, still it would be good

  8. Sample of 411 comprises three separate sub-samples to represent the different sections of the electorate.
    ?
    what does this do to the MOE which is nowhere quoted?

  9. William, could you show Patterson how to make their polls more accurate by changing their calculators to three decimal places?
    43.333%—much better.

  10. Rally round Mike Kelly folks, Nairn is tainted by the rorts and his Chief of staff is a liability.
    My spouce and I shall be travelling over 200k just to hand out how to vote cards in the Alps on the day, only 5 more sleeps. The last time I did this in Eden Monaro was when the silver budgie won, some kind of omen I hope

  11. I have been working fulltime on the election trail in Eden Monaro, and the feeling on the ground is good. These numbers are good, and seem fairly accurate, however Nairn is still quite popular in some of the conservative (almost redneck) parts of the electorate.
    He has all but given up on Queanbeyan and Cooma, and appears to be focussing on Tumut etc (the new parts of teh electorate). In the redistribution he picked up Tumut and lifted his margin from 2.2% (at 2004 election) to 3.3%.
    The YRAW campaign in Tumut is strong though, and is getting some great feedback, but not necessarily against Nairn. Making the link between WorkChoices and Nairn has proved difficult.

    My thoughts from on the ground:
    Despite all this, I think Nairn will win Eden Monaro (albeit with a tiny margin) due to the fact that he capitalises on peoples lack of interest (his pitch is all about just getting on with the job and not worrying too much about the politics of it). As a result of this lack of interest from a lot (and certainly not everyone) of people in the electorate nobody is really swayed by the rorts stuff, however the Nazi blunder from his chief of Staff is STILL resonating here, and the YRAW Campaign is strong, so there may be a saving grace there.
    If Nairn does win EM though, I still tip that it will be a break of the bellweather tradition, and we will still see a Rudd Labor Govt.

  12. Well done, Bilko and spouse. I shall be doing the HTV at Berridale for half a day, attempting to whittle down the Coalitions 60% plus there at the last election. A 5% gain there would be nice!

  13. Re 21

    If Labor does not win E-M I doubt they will win government. Just overheard a workmate discussing Kelly. She’s previously said it’s time for a change… but I heard her referring to Kelly as a slime and that she doesn’t like him. When prodded a little bit on it by other workmates she was adamant that she doesn’t like him. Well there’s one vote gone.

  14. No ND, it was just some photos she’d seen of him. A lot of voters base their decisions on very minor and trivial things. Welcome to the world of swinging voters.

  15. Perhaps she thought his moutache was a little porn starish….

    LTEP, it could be that this colleague of yours is actually a fairly solid Tory voter and that it was the ‘time for a change’ comment that was the exception rather than the rule. People like her are probably the difference between a 55% ALP 2PP and a 60% ALP 2PP.

    Another case in point, my Grandmother says she doesn’t like Rudd because he licks his lips too much and that she likes Kerry Bartlett because he ‘has a nice face’. The fact of the matter however is that she is a life long Tory and her ‘reasons’ are nothing more than lame justifications for doing something she would always do anyway. Just because in a moment of weakness once upon a time she suggested that John Howard should retire does not meen she will ever bring herself to help him on his way. And I wouldn’t expect her to. She did after all vote for Billy McMahon, Billy Snedden, Malcolm Fraser and Andrew Peacock, and no doubt would have voted for Dolly Downer if he had lasted long enough.

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