ACNielsen: 52-48 to Labor in Wentworth

The Fairfax broadsheets today carry an ACNielsen poll from Wentworth taken from an impressive sample of 900. It shows Labor’s George Newhouse leading Malcolm Turnbull 52-48 on two-party preferred, with primary votes of 45 per cent for Turnbull, 36 per cent for Newhouse and 17 per cent for Greens candidate Susan Jarnason. Minor party preferences favoured Labor over Liberal by 86-14, which seems a little much.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

836 comments on “ACNielsen: 52-48 to Labor in Wentworth”

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  1. Please, the WA lunch was full of fricking young Liberals, i know a few young libs who went.

    It was a speech to the party faithful

  2. It looks as if WA is a bad state for Labor, so Howard’s speaking to WA like that might not be such a bad idea. However, everywhere else that’s poison. Hope it gets national coverage.

  3. 761
    Edward StJohn Says:
    November 19th, 2007 at 4:53 pm …”….It will be a highly qualified mandate for Labor though if they do fall over the line…”

    Why highly qualified? A win is a win. You might like to understate the worth of winning a majority, but that will be neither here nor there.

  4. ruawake Says:
    November 19th, 2007 at 5:08 pm

    “during a speech to the local branch of the Liberal Party.”

    Sky News reported it was a speech to WA Business leaders?

    Same thing!

  5. Voted today in Parramatta. My seat is Bendigo, Victoria. Got the ballot paper and wasn’t sure where to direct prefs in Reps. Nine candidates. Parked the papers and checked downstairs and a very savvy worker consulted an electronic device and said: “It doesn’t matter – Steve won’t go to preferences.”

    I’ve done the deed! It was good! Anyway, put FF last.

  6. [“during a speech to the local branch of the Liberal Party.”

    Sky News reported it was a speech to WA Business leaders?]

    Same thing really

  7. Newspoll has WA at 50-50, which is a 5% swing to the ALP

    The ‘Westpoll’ which only surveyed 400 voters had 52-48 which is still a 3% swing

    The Libs are coming off a huge base in WA, so ALP will pick up a seat or two

    The West Australian and Sunday Times, which love John Howard will always continue to push the line thet JWH is the best thing since sliced bread.

    The reality is that the swing is on, even in WA

  8. Story about total of government advertising for 2006/07 is out on ABC. Between that and the Regional Programmes “Pork-gate” the government must have used a good $500 million+ in the last 3 years gettin itself relected. Someone should work out teh cost per Coalition member of parliament. It would probably be cheaper to just give them a million dollars each and go away.

  9. 90
    William Bowe Says:
    November 19th, 2007 at 1:08 am

    There is way too much crap on this thread, so I’m going to start deleting comments at whim. No correspondence about my decisions will be entered into.

    bravo william. i agree. ( melodious blogger starts humming…”please delete me, let me goooo..”)

  10. If the most important firewall for Howard to be spending time with is Cowan, Stirling, Hasluck, and is it Swan, at most a 2 seat gain for the Government they are pretty desperate, or pretty confident and the Johnny and Pete joint presser yesterday looked desperate (and IMHO pathetic, stick with an interest rates scare by all means bois it does worry me, but really all the iron ore in WA will magically dry up over night if Rudd is elected, even the most disengaged voter will see through something that stupid).

  11. Yes SeanofPerth, and as I noted earlier Westpoll overestimated the Coalition’s vote on average by over 6% in seat polling for the 2005 State election. I wouldn’t read a whole lot into their marginals polling.

  12. LindsayVoter,

    Could you please as well inform Vietnamese newspapers / communities on the perference of Howard on OneNation & PaulineHanson, please.

    Vietnamese in Australia are largely anti-Communist. Naturally, many of them favour Howard for that particular right-wing stance.

  13. By combining Howard’s tactical brilliance of late with Abbott’s smooth lines and sharp delivery, it seems that the Government has designed the ultimate campaign master stroke:

    Dressing up WorkChoices as “the sh!te-sandwitch we had to have”!!!


    He just pulled a rabbit out of his hat alright. This rabbit:

  14. Yes, Jim I wrote that but I wasn’t angry, I was just referring people to the article by Milne. Or do you mean you are still angry? By the way that was in October LAST YEAR. I’ve moved on, I suggest you do the same, after addressing the point I made that seemed to get under your skin earlier.

  15. WA statewide may be recording a 4 or 5% swing, but if the marginals don’t swing, Labor won’t pick up anything there. All the evidence is that the WA marginals are not swinging, or even swinging to Lib.

  16. JWH has no chance, period.

    I would imagine he is just trying to maintain the belief to the faithful that he can still win. Apprently he’s off to Tassie this afternoon

    I mean seriously, what was his big final pitch to WA? WorkChoices will stay!

    All this humbo jumbo about the mining boom ending under Rudd is ridiculous.

    Mind you, The West Australian newspaper is turning on Howard, callng him desperate etc.

    The Sunday Times endorsed to Coalition, no surprises there.

    The editor of The West is the biggest Liberal hack in the country, and they will endorse Howard i’m sure, even though the tone of the articles are changing.

  17. Ashley Says:
    Costello could be PM in a week

    Nah, Pete will find another seat for his good mate John to jump into so he can fulfil his dreams and retire with Menzies record. They’re part of a team after all and real caring folk.

  18. [The West Australian and Sunday Times, which love John Howard will always continue to push the line thet JWH is the best thing since sliced bread.]

    Oh and add 6PR to the mix as well, who btw only scored some 85 in the last radio ratings.

  19. All the evidence is that the WA marginals are not swinging, or even swinging to Lib.

    Labor will win Hasluck and hold Cowan and Swan. Stirling is 50/50 and I have $200 on SASman..WA is not going to let us down.

  20. Yeah, thats what I love about this site. Keeping it real! Id be lost if i was following the MSM on all this.

    Here’s my summary of fairly low risk assessments:

    – NSW and QLD will deliver a bag of seats, probably 10 minimum.
    – SA and Tas will certainly deliver 4, and most likely 5.
    – WA is unlikely to provide a net gain to the coalition.
    – That leaves the ALP needing one or two extra seats, with plenty of likely candidates in Vic, NT, and extras in NSW, QLD, SA
    – LNP could still win, but its highly unlikely. Will take an implosion from Rudd and a lot of plain, dumb, and improbably consistent luck in marginals.
    – better than 50/50 chance Howard wont be PM even if they do, having lost Bennelong
    – chances of a hostile senate past July next are rather slim.
    – the real toss-up is whether a landslide is on, or just a safe 4-5 seat margin.

  21. 826 Edward StJohn – Edward, it is news to me that I’m angry. Anger is not one of those emotions that I readily experience. Jim is an old sparring partner back in the “Bolt days”. Now I wouldn’t give you two cents for it. Might suit your tastes though Edward.

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