The Fairfax broadsheets today carry an ACNielsen poll from Wentworth taken from an impressive sample of 900. It shows Labor’s George Newhouse leading Malcolm Turnbull 52-48 on two-party preferred, with primary votes of 45 per cent for Turnbull, 36 per cent for Newhouse and 17 per cent for Greens candidate Susan Jarnason. Minor party preferences favoured Labor over Liberal by 86-14, which seems a little much.
836 comments on “ACNielsen: 52-48 to Labor in Wentworth”
Now here is great news.
86% of prefs…pfffffffft
That’s looking quite positive it must be said for Labor!
And from a reliable source.
Pity. Turnbull would have made a good future leader of the Libs.
thats what i want to hear!
on another note, as i posted inthe last thread, has anyone seen the strange ‘focus on australia’ ads?, saw two on Ch10 adel, one seemed to be endorsing workchoices and attacking unions but the second one was about a green dodo or something?!?!
As I said on the other thread, it’s a very weird poll.
A 9 point lead on primaries gets overturned on minor party preferences, which flow 86-14 to Labor! I can understand why Grattan was skeptical about this poll.
6 jimmy Yeah, I commented on that one this afternoon, probably the mining industry, coal industry and creationalists.
Richmond 2004 is something of a precedent.
Preferences split 78-22 to overturn a 45.8 to 35.6 primary lead.
Whether accurate or not the fact that we are getting polls with Labor well in the race in Wentworth at all must be a big worry for the Libs.
[thats what i want to hear!
on another note, as i posted inthe last thread, has anyone seen the strange ‘focus on australia’ ads?, saw two on Ch10 adel, one seemed to be endorsing workchoices and attacking unions but the second one was about a green dodo or something?!?!]
Haven’t seen it. If it is promoting WorkChoices it could be Exclusive Brethren. They think Unions are all run by communists.
I saw the Dodo one in Melbourne.
I’d love to see a detailed analysis of the third party preferences here.
Btw, what is the past history of whether people vote according to how to vote slips or do their own thing?
I believe today’s Australian will features the final litre of bile from Glenn Milne before election day.
I assume it will be another Costello press release.
All these negative reports on AWA’s and still Hockey wont release his figures to debunk them!
WAGES in Victoria’s retail and hospitality industries are falling well below the norm under WorkChoices, a new study shows, as workplace power swings to employers.
And another study shows many small and medium employers think WorkChoices was designed to benefit big business, with a more complex industrial relations system resulting.
I saw it. Can’t find them (focus on australia foundation) on google or anything.
I for one would like to know who these jerks are ! (that is who is providing the $$)
Do we call this the revenge of the yapping minors?
It’s hard to believe, but as we’ve seen throughout this entire year, perceptions are what politics are about. It’s not good news for the conservatives, and although I’ve got mixed feelings about Turnbull (as a politician he’d make a good investment banker), I won’t feel any sympathy for him. Or maybe about as much as he felt for the poor guy he rolled to take the seat.
I’m not as quick to dismiss Labor’s chances in Wentworth as some people on here are. I think Turnbull’s not necessarily the most popular local member and I certainly don’t think much of him.
To be honest I wouldn’t be completely surprised if some of the right of the Liberal Party want Turnbull gone. I have a feeling he is extremely untrustworthy and will white-ant Costello through much of the next term to attempt to get the leadership. It would make sense for the right to white-ant Turnbull’s campaign in Wentworth… if it weren’t such a close election.
Anyhow, I think probably this seat will stay Liberal, given its history. I don’t think Labor will win it with such a low primary nor do I think the Greens will break the way the poll suggests it. Still, Turnbull to go to preferences.
DW @ 9,
That kind of makes sense in Wentworth as well. The western part of this electorate (Paddington, Darlinghurst, etc) are strong Green areas that would always preference Labor.
However, are the Greens issuing an open-ticket in Wentworth, after the pulp mill fiasco? Coz that could lower the preference flow to Labor by enough to deliver it to Turnbull…
Greens on 17% bull butter.
The Greens got 11% so magically they go up 6% what for?
That said Turnbull needs a primary of 47 to hold on, he needs just 2% to be a future leader of the Libs.
86-14 even with the greens is bull butter, they’ll fall around 70-30 to Newhouse but enough for Malcolm to hold on.
Just one more time, this poll is Bull butter especially after the row over his eligibility
Don’t buy any thing good about M.Turnbull, hes a GRUB not a moderate. He supported work choices & all the other rubbish this Government came up with. If any thing he is more a power monger than Howard because he got untold millions to get by but is he satisfied with that? NO. He just wants more power thats all. The only good that could be said for him is that he is a republican so hes not a complete DICK!
Green preferences will flow very strongly to Labor, they will poll higher than in other years. In spite of any scare campaign.
William, why is the preference split “beyond plausible limits”? They are all anti-Turnbull candidates apart from FF and CDP, who won’t poll well in Wentworth. (FF got 0.4% in 2004 and CDP haven’t contested it for years.) I find the preference split entirely plausible.
If I was a betting man, Id say the Gunns mill decision will see Turnbull narrowly lose the seat. Even though Newhouse is a pillock.
And rightly so – there’s no economy worth a pinch of sh*t without environmental sustainability. I suspect voters will pick Turnbull to illustrate that major paradigm shift to the major parties.
Glen you just don’t get it. No 1 issue is what we’re not allowed to mention. The Liberals are on another planet. So they lose.
Adam, care to enlighten us about how you see the preferences going?
You might be right, Adam. Can anyone point to a real-world example of preferences splitting this widely?
[(FF got 0.4% in 2004 and CDP haven’t contested it for years.) I find the preference split entirely plausible.]
Turnbull is getting all of that, and 1% from the Greens.
Newhouse has got a 4% lead though. Even if Turnbull gets 4% from the Greens (24%) Newhouse could still probably win.
Turnbull should be pleading with Green voters to give him their second preferences.
I remain curious.
What was it about Newhouse not appearing on, for one Skye, after the strange case of the letter without a stamp?
Not, of course, that Wentworth should fall to any but Labor.
Turnbull will be returned without doubt.
Newhouse is a dunce.
The attack on Newhouse will work in his favour.
Both Wentworth and Bennelong are going.
How? He’s a bloody coward.
Nope. Not a chance.
You’re going to have to do a bit better than that from now on, GP.
Sorry GP,like it or not,the swing is on and it will take the big and the small,equally.Both Turnbull and Howard are gone.
and yet more scandalous behavior involving Johnny and his favorite far-right cult:
Couldn’t agree more Adam. The closet election with any environmental effect was the Franklin Dam. I can’t remember how the preferences went then. This time the issue is much bigger. Hence every time it starts up here William has to throw cold water on everyone.
I have to admit that it’s pretty amazing (and a tad surreal) that we’re all sitting here less than a week out from an election and we’re seriously contemplating Wentworth falling to Labor.
Who would have thought this (or even imagined this) a year ago? The fact that we’re concerned about a 53-47 poll in favour of Labor in Eden-Monaro highlights how much our expectations have changed over the past year.
All I’m saying is – a win is a win, whether by 1 seat or by 30. We shouldn’t be disappointed if Rudd “only” wins by a handful…
Just like to point out that the Liberals stink with the gay community:
Shanahan just doesn’t get it. Both sides have a vested interest in saying the election will be close. As if any Labor insider is going Dennis with valid information, given his penchant for the Liberal Party.
BHP-B C.O.O. dead.
Anyone want to offload their shares to me?
I live next to Wentworth. While I think Turnbull will scrape in, I think the vast majority of minor party preferences will go to Labor. 86-14 would sound implausible anywhere else in the country, excepting this part of dear old Syd. We’re weird over here.
If you look carefully you will see Howard, Costello, Toombull & his mates in this video. Its their DESTINY.
That should read “As if any Labor insider is going to supply Dennis with valid information, given his penchant for the Liberal Party.”
I bet you are going to be the fun of the party on Saturday night.
But not implausable limits William. Nobodys on the verandah yet, but I think Taverner is a hint that the fetching has kicked in, 3 irons and cricket bats, sucking in the follow through. It feels good apparently. 5 more sleeps.
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