ACNielsen: 52-48 to Labor in Wentworth

The Fairfax broadsheets today carry an ACNielsen poll from Wentworth taken from an impressive sample of 900. It shows Labor’s George Newhouse leading Malcolm Turnbull 52-48 on two-party preferred, with primary votes of 45 per cent for Turnbull, 36 per cent for Newhouse and 17 per cent for Greens candidate Susan Jarnason. Minor party preferences favoured Labor over Liberal by 86-14, which seems a little much.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

836 comments on “ACNielsen: 52-48 to Labor in Wentworth”

Comments Page 16 of 17
1 15 16 17
  1. Speaking of JHo and the “Elusive Brethren” this today in the Age.
    [JOHN Howard has exchanged letters five times with the Exclusive Brethren since 2003, but after 14 months of stalling on a simple freedom-of-information request, his office will not release the correspondence until well after election day.

    The Age was informed last week that it was authorised to receive edited copies of four letters from members of the secretive sect to the Prime Minister, and one from the Prime Minister to the Brethren sent as recently as September last year.]

  2. From Simon Jackman’s blog (

    So its the last week of the campaign, perhaps high time to roll out some pooling of the polls, as I did in 2004 (here and here).The bottom line: yes, there is a trend back to the government, or at least there was early in the campaign, but its too little, too late. Labor is headed for about 54% 2PP nationally. So barring something spectacular this last week (and we will get a couple more national polls before the weekend), or the Coalition pulling off the greatest marginal seat “run-of-the-table” in Australian electoral history, Labor will win, and win comfortably.Thumbail of one of several graphs appearing below the fold, along with much more detail.


    ALP Expected Seat Count: 80.73 out of 150 seats. Computed as the sum of the 3-agency-average seat-by-seat ALP win probabilities.

  3. Sorry some of my table got truncated so here it is in its complee form-

    Wins (= $1.30)
    Cosaition – 19
    Labor – 9

    Total if current betting leaders get up
    Coaltion – 68
    Labor – 80
    Ind – 2

  4. Paul K,

    Of course the scenario works for the ALP, as does the possibility that they could win with 48%, or 47% or 46% or whatever. Unfortunatley, not many people acknowledge this.

    I was merely identifying that the pessism of people is bounded only by a 75% 2PP and that peoplr can go on hypothesising about Labor defeat within that bound. It is only when the ALP 2PP preferred vote hits 75% that the pessimists will have nothing to work with and the old ‘swing not being uniform’ gets put to bed.

    By the way, you might want to work on your tact, cause it sucks at the moment.

  5. Lindsay voter

    Is it too late to remind people of Howard’s statements on Asian immigration back in the late 1980s? I know this might seem like ancient history, but the point is his euro-centric prejudice is long standing and personal, not just a recent counter to Hansonism. Some recent immigrants may not realise that.

  6. I understand the call has gone out for as many Liberals as possible to particpate on these sort of blogs. It is recognised that blogs are increasingly informing opinion and the Liberals want to combat this in the last week.

    Makes sense as this arvos contributions seem to be straight from Liberal Party central casting.

    BTW, just watched Agenda on Sky, David Speers is a disgrace to journalism.

  7. I think Rudd sees himself right in the grain of a long line of Labor leaders: trying to give practical expression to a desire to improve the lot of ordinary people.

    He obviously doesn’t use the rhetoric of class rivalry or conflict, most probably because he doesn’t subscribe to it and certainly because it is counter-productive to the task of winning power.

    But he clearly has a sense of the historical mission of his party. Labor is the unifying political force that tries to advance the material and social interests of ordinary people, while keeping the country pragmatically engaged and responding to the changes of the times. This has been the essential modernising role played by Labor for a century – a role that he seems to me to be most well-fitted.

  8. Also I’m surpised at people putting family first or one nation lower than the CEC.

    Though I lolled when I was voting on the weekend and saw the libs in my electorate put the CEC above labor.

  9. 746 Jim – So that’s your argument is it Jim? How about addressing what I actually said and explain where my logic is wrong. Oh, that right, it isn’t hence the crap you’ve written.

  10. StanS

    Yes, exactly why I pointed out previously the irrelevance of some individuals continually inventing obscure statistical arguments that the Liberals might still win with 48% or 49% of the vote.

    Really, isn’t it pathetic for the Liberals to be hoping that you can win a democratic election with a minority of the votes? Shame on them.

  11. StanS

    Yes the Senator was most insistent as Twilight of the Gods played in the background – more bloggers.

    Probable Labor win doesnt mean certain Labor win comrades.

    It will be a highly qualified mandate for Labor though if they do fall over the line – about 80 seats as Jackman is saying. I think we will have the most risk adverse and cautious Labor government in history. Something like a de facto Howard fifth term.

  12. This discussion about being under enough scrutiny by the media is virtually meaningless.

    The media themselves are virtually meaningless, when it comes to determining the outcome of elections. They think they are all important, but it’s rubbish.

    The majority of the voters, vote on impressions.

    All the “scrutiny” doesn’t mount to a hill of beans. The ALP made this accusation of Howard in 1996, if only he’d been put under scrutiny, the ALP would have won. The truth is it would have made no difference to the result. The same applies here, if Rudd is put under more scrutiny………it too will make no difference to the result.

    The voters are given too little credit and too much credit simultaneously. Too little credit in not being able to see through the “frauds”, and too much credit for understanding and digesting policies.

    They draw broad impression on the parties, the leaders, and the policies, and that’s it.

  13. The real irony for KR might be that like his mentor Goss he ends a record winning run and then ends up out in record time too!

  14. Good work Lindsay voter. Spread the word 🙂

    The Libs have so many lies up in the air at the moment, its important to bust their lies as often as possible to the electorate.

    Socrates: It is definitely not ancient history to me.

    Howard’s support and stealing of policies from the xenophobic One Nation party will forever go down as one of the many stains in Howard’s abysmal legacy.

  15. ESJ – ‘It will be a highly qualified mandate for Labor though if they do fall over the line – about 80 seats as Jackman is saying.’

    That is not Jackman’s prediction. It is the current probability he has extrapolated from looking at the three main betting agencies. It has been moving upwards from about 74 a couple of weeks ago. Two days ago it was 78. It is not a stable number, or Jackman’s personal prediction.

  16. Poor Gary is working on a peptic ulcer. He’s been angry since he made a fool of himself in Andrew Bolt’s blog last year. Bittle it up, Gary.

  17. Patrick

    I agree with a lot that you’re saying. There’s two realities of modern politics though – one is about substance and the other is about tactics. Rudd is playing a chess game with Howard in the pressure cooker of an election campaign in the face of a media which is almost without exception petty, nasty, prejudiced and mediocre .

    As has been mentioned elsewhere the tories always get an easy ride from the establishment/msm cos essentially they do the bidding of the big end of town. Those partys (ostensibly) of the left – which nowadays means those that don’t launch pogroms on the union movement – are always up against it in terms of proving their legitimacy. Labor have to play a very smart game to avoid the traps that are set. A legacy of the Howard years is that a lot of those traps unfortunately are to do with anything vaguely out of the left wing song book – social equity like schools funding, excessive pandering to minorities etc. Politics is increasingly becoming the art of saying nothing, offending no one. This is particularly the case when you’ve been given the golden fleece of workchoices. Really it all becomes about defence – holding off the hyienas in the press and the liberal party long enough in order to get across the line.

    With regard to politics Ive always been able to reconcile my pragmatic side with my principals and I think a lot of Labor Supporters are the same. Sometimes it goes wrong and you get the dogs breakfast that is the NSW Labor party. But you just have to accept that Rudd is not going to pour forth his feelings and thoughts on all the matters near and dear to labor supporters. He cant afford to . Change when it comes will be incremental.

    If you want to see something of what Rudd stands for though, read the essay he wrote for the quarterly magazine last year (or 2005). In it he talks about social democracy, social justice and how neo-liberalism has pushed the market line to the point where humans get left behind. Its pretty impressive. Take it from me, Rudd has oodles of intellectual substance and I think you’ll see that in the longer term. Hopefully. At the very least you won’t have to endure the rodent any longer.

  18. LTEP isn’t a Liberal but what kind of system would we have that allowed one party to get 54% TPP and still lose? Fortunately it has never happened, although I reckon Bjelke – Peterson and Payford in SA probably won a couple of elections with well under 50% TPP with their gerrymanders.

  19. To do that ESJ, he’d need to invent a time machine and travel back to 1963 and defeat Mr Menzies. Kevin ’63 shirts would go down pretty well.

    Speaking of which. I’ve seen lots of people wearing Kevin ’07 shirts down at the local Woolworths recently.

  20. Lindsay vote:

    The Asian vote is interesting. I imagine many asians wouldn’t participate in polling, and most would vote against Howard. So potentially the swing in Bennelong is even higher.

    Having said that though, I do know a fair few Asians who are voting Liberal based on the ‘why change what’s working system’, ‘interest rates’ and ‘school fee bribes’ and just don’t pay attention to politics. Showing that the Liberal bribes and scare tactics is having some effect.

  21. StanS @ 756 [BTW, just watched Agenda on Sky, David Speers is a disgrace to journalism.]

    And it’s absolute partisan clowns like Speers that validates Rudd’s policy of denying them fuel to burn. Speers is the TV version of Piers.

  22. 769 Jim – I have no idea what you are talking about Jim. You still haven’t refuted my argument. Says it all really. Are you one of those Liberals that has been sent out to “Liberalise” the blogs? Why have you left the safe confines of Andrew Bolt’s blog?

  23. Jackman’s model is predicting a 54-46 result based upon published polling (which shouldn’t be too surprising, since the polls have hardly moved).

    The 80 seat figure is a separate number which simply reflects the number of seats the betting markets are currently expecting Labor will win.

  24. Re 750,

    Lindsay voter Says:

    November 19th, 2007 at 4:41 pm
    #747 I emailed Rudd but will forward to MMcKew. Have just found out the Korean Daily’s fax. Now for the Chinese paper.

    Good on you 🙂 🙂 🙂

  25. Socrates @ 721 said: “Bruce Baird was one of the last good ones IMHO.”

    Soc, I’ve always thought this as well, but he went the mongrel on Penny Wong this morning on Skynews Agenda ’07 with Helen Dailey (08:30 to 9:00 am).
    Not only did he spout every vile Team Howard fear and smear, but hogged at least 2/3 of the time, then attempted repeatedly to interrupt and talk over Penny Wong. When Wong rebutted his wild claims with the same tough, cool arguments that Julia Gillard dealt with Barry Cassidy yesterday, Baird grew increasingly agitated and red-faced. It was very sad to see Baird doing an Abbott.

    Haven’t got a clue whether he really believes what he was saying (and none of it was within cooee of small-l liberal) or whether there’s some lucrative board of director slots awaiting him to join with his old boss, Greiner (e.g. a major tobacco company, L. and M.). Then again, Greiner was far more composed and cogent on Skynews Agenda ’07 last week, and how about John Debnam’s Kyoto comment today? Curiouser and curiouser!

    Whatever the reason, for me that leaves John Fahey as one of the few last good ones (until I’m given information to the contrary from one of my fellow posters here).

  26. People, Higgins is NOT IN PLAY. If Labor win Higgins, I’ll agree to spend the day mowing the concrete at Gary’s Blackburn squat.

  27. [BTW, just watched Agenda on Sky, David Speers is a disgrace to journalism.]

    Helen ‘Dill’y is worse. She interrupts the person she is interviewing every freaking time they try to answer. I mean why bother asking a question in the first place if you are just going to talk over them anyway?


    WorkChoices here for good if Coalition wins: PM
    Posted 48 minutes ago
    Updated 34 minutes ago

    Mr Howard says returning a Coalition government is crucial to keep the country’s workplace reforms in place. (AAP: Paul Miller)

    Prime Minister John Howard says if the Coalition wins Saturday’s federal election a future Labor government would never be able to repeal the Government’s controversial WorkChoices legislation.

    Mr Howard has delivered his final pitch for votes in Western Australia, during a speech to the local branch of the Liberal Party.

    He says returning a Coalition government is crucial to keep the country’s workplace reforms in place.

    “If we win on Saturday then the reforms that we have brought about will never be reversed by a future federal Labor government,” he said.

    “They will become part of the furniture. They will become so embedded in our business and workplace culture that no future Labor government would be able to reverse them.”
    What a pitch that is!!!

  29. Ashley, on last nights thread I had Diogenes trying to be smart telling me that Simon Jackman does the seat count properly according to the betting market.

    So I will return serve and say that it is completely impractical to average out odds offered by bookmakers.

    Also, Burgey maybe punters thought the coalition were overs at the 1.60. Tonights poll may change the market again.

  30. DEO @ 747, do you still have Penny Wong’s press release?

    Can you either post the link or fax it to Singtao Chinese daily @ 0292671474 and the Korean Daily at 02-98041855? Ta.

  31. Jim.

    How can you say that? Marginal swings of circa 7.5% are being reported all over NSW and VIC

    Higgins is currently on low 8%s.

    Higgins is in play, be definition.

  32. Yeah, give Rudd a break. He’s in a tussle with the most unprincipled, and rankly populist politician in a generation.

    Every misstep, or even careless admission of complexity in an issue would be exploited by Rodent, with some regrettably effective piece of prize idiocy like “that means Rudd is soft on baby-eating!” / “Cat out of teh bag!” etc.

  33. 796 Lefty E

    I agree –

    Witness the reaction to the eminently reasonable suggestion that WA plan for moving past the resources boom by moving into financial services.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 16 of 17
1 15 16 17