Morgan phone poll: 56-44

Morgan has published results of a large-sample phone poll of 1670 respondents, “including 1,025 electors in 22 key L-NP marginal seats”. This has focused on seven such seats in New South Wales, pointing to a swing of 7.7 per cent, four in Victoria for 4.8 per cent, four in Queensland for 13.9 per cent, three in South Australia for 6.6 per cent, two in Tasmania for 9.9 per cent, and two in Western Australia for a swing of 3.1 per cent away from Labor. I am unsure on what basis Morgan has arrived at the conclusion that “the ALP looks set to win between 14 and 24 seats”. We are told without explanation that the swing in NSW is “not uniform” and that “the L-NP could still hold Bennelong, Dobell and Wentworth”, without any corresponding allowance for Labor gaining seats outside the range. Despite the swing in South Australia, it is apparently the case that Labor might not win Wakefield, which I find extremely difficult to believe. The overall result of the poll is a 46.5 per cent primary vote for Labor and 40 per cent for the Coalition, for a two-party preferred result of 56-44. It would require tremendous creativity to build a scenario from these figures that would only deliver Labor 14 seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

678 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 56-44”

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  1. This poll has some creditability as it does reflect the strong pro-labor feeling here on the ground here in Brisbane. It means overall on this poll that Labor can win up to 41 seats. Something that has indicative most of this year.

  2. Why do these pollsters insist on doing stupid things like provide running commentary on whether a seat will fall that’s on less than a 6% margin when the MoE on the seat results is at least 15%!

    The State by State MoE’s are between 5.5 and 10%!

  3. Why do all these pundits keep inventing scenarios in which Rudd wins 55-45 TPP but still loses the election? It’s almost a statistical impossibility. No Govt has ever been formed with less than 49%TPP.

  4. Hey Poss, why not ring Gazza Morgan up and ask him why he does these things? His mobile number is at the bottom of the main press release, while a glowing reference to your Marsupialness is at the very bottom.

    I’d do, but I’m too stupid to understand things like MoEs.

    Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
    Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093

  5. That’s right. With 51% it’s reasonably sure a seat majority will be achieved. Because the swing is never uniform. That’s the key.

  6. Now we are in the Kill Zone, so to speak, are we not into the process of product differentiation for those who conduct polls?

    A bit like Rudd, who struck out to claim his title last week, are we not now witnessing the various poll companies use similar marketing tactics to brand and identify themselves as the actuall poll draws near?

    A bit like a holding company, News has a number of businesses producing polls – newspoll and galaxy

    and under that great murdoch mantra of “creative tension” here we see them positioing themselves to be “credible” come the result…

    and either way, rupert has a horse to back come next time…

    I suspect that pollsters now are in the business of marketing their brand identity, and they are hoping that as the final numbers fall, they will have enough data to point to to show their prospective clients (ie, brand managers for commercial companies) that “they were right”

    and by the way, whoEVER the hell is david briggs or martin o’shaunessy other then a spruiker for a product….and not very good ones at that…

    australians sense a change is needed…whether they grab the future is another thing…

    and i still think hartcher is right: not since 1996 have the polls shown such consistent and DEADLY intent

    (don’t) sleep well john, janette, peter et al

  7. Lets be honest – Any system which allowed a 56% TPP NOT to win the election would be a fundamentally broken system. That would be a margin of more than 2 million australians not getting the party they voted for.

  8. Possum: posted this before, but more relevant here.

    “Roy Morgan, hang your head in shame.

    Making any comment on individual electorates is ridiculous as the MOE on each is 14%!!!!
    After choosing 50 from each of the 22 marginal electorates, they must have chosen an average of 5(!!) from the other 127. Even averaged out the MOE on this additional 600 is 4%
    The whole 1670 sample must be a very biassed sample skewed towards the heavily targetted marginals, making the 2% overall MOE meaningless.
    NB: all Maths Stats teachers and lecturers: save the comments accompaying this survey. What a great exam question or assignment!”

  9. Poss and other Psephs

    If I understand this, the examination of individual marginals makes no sense. The statement of seats to fall looks far too low for the overall swing. The samples must be tiny. Surely you can’t take the results seat by seat for this many marginals. Shouldn’t you apply the overall trend for each State to get any meaningful sample. Am I misunderstanding something?

  10. Now that I understand it, doesn’t this poll spell landslide against the coalition? If the overall swing is to 56/44 2PP, even subtracting MoE, it holds in the marginals, and the swing is trongest in Qld, NSW and SA, where the Coalitions most vulnerable seats are, surely they are going to lose at least 20 seats in those 3 States alone?

  11. Are they just making claims it will be close to sustain interest? Is it a bit like the way sports commentators make claims that games might tighten up. Eg at AFL halftime “If Port get the first few goals they are right back in this”. Well I hope it is that close 🙂

  12. Spiros. Perhaps that is why Howard is playing the drug card. He has noticed what is going on in the campaign bunker when they read the latest polls. “The blue pills make our chances look better”.

  13. Spiros, you are spot on. I believe based on the evidence and all the stats available that Gary Morgan is hallucinating…

  14. I don’t understand why Morgan just doesn’t say the results in each seat.

    It’s possible the results in certain seats could be so huge to disguise lower results in other seats… but it seems unlikely. It really is a useless poll unless they state why they think the Coalition will hold certain seats.

    Do they mean the Coalition is in front in Bennelong, Wentworth and Dobell? Or are they just saying it’s close and the Coalition could fall over the line? How do they know the Queensland results are effected by the ‘halo effect’?

    Even if the bottom prediction of 14 seats arises, I’d predict Labor would form government with the help of Katter and Windsor.

  15. Jason Donovan is on Rove. Perhaps Howard could arrest him when Donovan talks about his drug use and quarantine his income? Seriously, the Rodent is gnawing his insides out now.

  16. Poss,

    Yes of course you are right. It is within MOE of the 54.5 average you calculated. That must be why I like it. Thanks 🙂

  17. What does this mean?

    8.8% swing to the ALP in the seven key marginal seats surveyed. The swing required to lose each is Parramatta 0.9%, Wentworth 2.5%, Lindsay 2.9%, Eden-Monaro 3.3%, Bennelong 4%, Dobell 4.8% and Page 5.5%.

    Despite the 7.7% swing to the ALP, the swing is not uniform and the L-NP could still hold Bennelong, Dobell and Wentworth.

    Is the swing 8.8% or 7.7% or am I missing something?

  18. “We are entering the decisive quarter. whoever wins this, wins the game…

    this is the most important moment in the entirety of eternity”

    Paul Kelly

  19. Gee the green vote in the 3 marginals is moving from an average of 3 to nearly 10. If that can swing so much due to who is conducting the poll, who is asked and what is asked then how big will the ALP win or will it loose yet again. this last week is crucial

  20. [Do they mean the Coalition is in front in Bennelong, Wentworth and Dobell? Or are they just saying it’s close and the Coalition could fall over the line? ]

    They don’t have a big enough sample in any individual electorate to say anything (intelligent)!

  21. BTW,

    I was just hoping that William can set up threads for the various:

    – woeful media coverage and/or story (sorry, I’ve banged on about this before)
    – hopeless quote
    – “representational quote”, ie the quote you have when the kelly;s and shanahans et al won’t actually own up to what they are on about or their own pretentiousness..

  22. I think it can be summed up in the words of a wise (and very rich) man “Your opinions are only as good as your information”. And when your information is crap…

  23. 35 – Kelly is really full of it isnt he. Just about on a par with his recent ‘in-depth’ analysis of the public intellectuals.

  24. I heard the gentleman from Galaxy this morning refer to the Kinnock versus Major election in the UK where the polls “All got it wrong.”
    i suggest we may hear more of this in the coming week. What might be useful to note for workplace discussion to counter the trolls regarding this exemplar is :
    1. non compulsory voting in UK meant that the group polled was not per se a sample of the group that voted.
    2.the first past the post system in uk meant that votes to third parties did not flow back to labour.
    3.Kinnock represented “Old Labour” perhaps more like Kim than Kev.
    4.And that the subsequent Blair win is arguably more akin to the current situation.

    Notably Kinnock has gone on to be a respected Euro politician and ambassador, i personally hope that Big Kim gets a chance to do something similar where he can make a contribution and enjoy a suitable reward for his many years of hard work.

  25. Just saw a Coalition individual add for David Fawcett (sitting Liberal, Wakefield, +0.7% margin) on the Adelaide Nine news. I am amazed they are still putting money into that. Would it be from the candidates own local funds?

  26. 41 Hugh Briss- I heard the reason the polls got that one wrong was that everyong polled was too ashamed to admit to a human being they would vote Tory but in the secrecy of the ballot box with no-one looking they snuck the little 1 next to Tory!

  27. Rove just did a Ting Fart parody ad for tonight’s show – quite funny

    Enough with those darn ads. They need to counter the interest rate ads with either Rudd and the monitor sitting on the desk “Another scare campaign from Mr Howard…” OR one of their dark and scary “But do you know who had the highest interest rates in the last 30 years?”

  28. What is interesting to note that the YR@W ( now blatantly ALP stooges) has decided to copy the ALP HTV card in Kingston which puts me at 3. A long way from the split ticket that they said was going to happen. It shows you have to be a union boss or a right wing SDA/ DLP candidate to get support. I will be sitting back and say told you so when the unions like the AMWU get shafted. At least i can hold my head up high and say i ran for principles not to screw the worker

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