Morgan phone poll: 56-44

Morgan has published results of a large-sample phone poll of 1670 respondents, “including 1,025 electors in 22 key L-NP marginal seats”. This has focused on seven such seats in New South Wales, pointing to a swing of 7.7 per cent, four in Victoria for 4.8 per cent, four in Queensland for 13.9 per cent, three in South Australia for 6.6 per cent, two in Tasmania for 9.9 per cent, and two in Western Australia for a swing of 3.1 per cent away from Labor. I am unsure on what basis Morgan has arrived at the conclusion that “the ALP looks set to win between 14 and 24 seats”. We are told without explanation that the swing in NSW is “not uniform” and that “the L-NP could still hold Bennelong, Dobell and Wentworth”, without any corresponding allowance for Labor gaining seats outside the range. Despite the swing in South Australia, it is apparently the case that Labor might not win Wakefield, which I find extremely difficult to believe. The overall result of the poll is a 46.5 per cent primary vote for Labor and 40 per cent for the Coalition, for a two-party preferred result of 56-44. It would require tremendous creativity to build a scenario from these figures that would only deliver Labor 14 seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

678 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 56-44”

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  1. Socrates – No – I think he was trying to do some of his own product differentiation from the benighted boffins of the left.

  4. Morgan as always is the outlier’s outlier poll. I wonder if the 14-seat gain scenario excludes the so-called “soft Labor” support and the 24-seat gain scenario includes that “soft Labor” support?

  5. I don’t think the Port vs Libs analogy really quite works, since football is a 50/50 contest (theoretically at least) that is only contested on the day, whereas the election is really a long drawn out process, that very sees no significant shift between late campaign voter sentiments and actual election day results. Well, actually it’s mainly cause I’m a left-wing Port supporter and having my team compared to the Libs offends me!

    Also, as I said in the previous thread:
    “This latest telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on November 15-17, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,670 electors, including 1,025 electors in 22 key L-NP marginal seats.”

    Would that mean that
    (a) his overall Australia-wide sample was not random, and introduced bias into the results, and
    (b) that the 95% confidence interval on state polling (assuming ~50 responses per electorate) is 6-8%, making almost all the marginal figures meaningless?

  6. Gary Morgan says:

    “The latest marginal seat poll — the telephone Morgan Poll — conducted in 22 carefully selected Liberal marginal seats on November 15-17 (after the both parties launched their campaigns) shows the swing to the ALP is not uniform — it varies by seats and States. For this reason it is too early to call the election, although the ALP is well in front on a simple vote count.”

    Even if the swing were uniform in every seat, doing a sample of <50 in 22 marginal seats would produce major variations between seats anyway.

    Methinks this is Morgan’s way of covering his arse, after his poll has showed a higher ALP vote than all others for most of the year.

    I’m just surprised that Galaxy’s Briggs, whose poll has showed a higher Coalition vote than all others for most of the year, has not engaged in similar arse-covering by more explicitly acknowldeging the possibility of a landslide.

    Interesting also the diametrically opposed stories Morgan & Galaxy tell abt 4 Qld marginals, given that 3 of them are common to both polls.

  7. With sample sizes per marginal of only 50, nothing much can be taken on a seat by seat basis from this poll. The state results are also prone to big MoE’s, so once again not much can be taken from each state’s result. What can be taken from this poll is the overall marginal seat result, which shows Labor with 54% 2PP, as opposed to the 46.3% they received in 2004 in those 22 Coalition marginals. That’s a swing of around 7.5% to Labor in those seats, more than enough to deliver Labor the very clear majority of those 22 seats. Labor will be able to pinch seats not surveyed in the Eastern seaboard states, and so romp home. The 54% 2PP is very similar to Newspoll and Galaxy’s overall results for their marginal seat surveys.

  8. Whether the PM is on Rove or not the Libs have apparently taken over channel 10 advertising to the extent that there are at least 2 lib attack ads per break… Got to love the misleading ad on state governments with 80 billion in debt… wonder whether they believe infrastructure can be paid for by states with cash when they control the income stream. It is completely misleading and appalling. The majority of that 80 billion is over the next 10 years in Qld building long term infrastructure projects.

  9. 50 bill weller-Perhaps you could ask Overington to get them to change their preferences if you promise to sleep with her. Would make a great front page!

  10. Yes Lukas, you’d assume the launch halo would’ve been there for Galaxy too. It’s all very confusing… but all 3 polling companies picked up similar swings in the marginals to their regular national poll results.

  11. [Whether the PM is on Rove or not the Libs have apparently taken over channel 10 advertising to the extent that there are at least 2 lib attack ads per break…]

    Labor is running a lot of ads on 10 Adelaide.

  12. Was just wondering on the polls etc. At this stage where the leaders go would be based mostly on internal polling, and there would be little point doing any push polling, as that might have them campaigning in the wrong areas.

    So wouldn’t tracking Howard and Rudd be a good indicator of the real marginal polling?

  13. LTEP, Galaxy was taken last Sat-Thur, Newspoll Mon-Thur, Morgan Thur-Sat. Morgan’s the most recent one, and the only one that was taken after Rudd’s campaign launch. Only 200 marginal voters in Qld, so not much to be taken out of it. However, if there was a 13.9% swing to Labor in Qld, Labor would gain enough seats in Qld alone.

  14. Wow, 80 billion in “debt”?

    Infrastructure SHOULD be paid for with debt, because the benefit is accrued over many years, and therefore the cost should be spread over the generations, and not put on those who initiate it.

    Howard is a lying mendacious little rodent who’s misinformed the people of Australia at every opportunity for his own selfish power hungry reasons.

    Check the credit rating of Victoria for example. This is good governance, and it’s just plain wrong to say otherwise.

    Disgraceful creature…good riddance.

  15. I think we can safely assume a 13.9% swing in QLD is overstating the case a tad.

    But let’s have a look
    Galazy 2%
    Morgan – 13.9%
    Newspoll – 8.6%

    8.2% is a nice average.

    pick up 8 seats? A big ask.

  16. What all of these marginal seat polls have shown is that we really have no idea what the swing is like in the marginal seats is.

    I guess that keeps the intrigue in this election…

  18. Am i mistaken in saying Morgan phone polls usually have a pro-Labor bias which is quite large compared with the other polls?

    And am I also right in saying that of all the pollsters, Morgan’s press releases/ websites make by far the least sense?

  19. Galaxy – 2%
    Morgan – 13.9%

    How crazy is that discrepancy?

    But what all the polls are telling us is that ALP is 54 – 56. Others say 52 – 53. But they all look good to me.

  20. You know any pollster who doesn’t put out a national poll on Monday or Tuesday, and instead lamely waits till Friday is not worth spit.

    Anybody can call the result of a footy game at the 20 minute mark of the final quarter, but if the polls can’t pick the winner 5-6 days out, they may as well bugger off up their collective margins of error.

  21. My emotions in regards to these marginal seat polls:

    Newspoll – pleased
    Galaxy – concerned
    Morgan – frustrated (at all 3 of them for being so useless!)

  22. I’m just checking my Galaxy swing – I think’s actually 5% – I’m getting confused!!!!
    THERE ARE TOO MANY POLLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    either way, still yet to see a poll predicting a LNP win.

  23. I think that from all the marginal seat polls we have had that the pollsters have no friggin clue on a seat by seat basis.

    Except to say Labor will win most of the marginals.

    Channel your inner C/T or H/B this is a “different” election.

    Some Qld seats will swing by 13.9% some will swing 4%. The big swings are not in “marginal” seats. 😉

  24. Re: 67

    Has Labor run out of $$$ – what the hell is going on?

    Can we be so confident that we don’t need to counter the interest rate ad bombardment. I wouldn’t be so sure. Not responding implies Labor are not willing to tackle the issue doesn’t it?

  25. AM @ 67,

    The “Whingeing Wendy” Ads are running on reasonable rotation here in Sydney. Expect some more to run after or during Rove on Ch 10.

  28. William: I posted the last post on the thread that has just died or lapsed:

    “ESJ #562:

    I’ll take you on for a $100 donation to PB so long as you promise to shut up until William confirms you’ve paid the $100. 53.00-47.00 ALP TPP = draw (and we both give William $20. ALP 53.01% TPP and you pay William $100.”

    This was to do with Newspoll national poll Tuesday (or Monday)

  29. The polls, the polls!

    Number of polls showing LNP ahead on TPP basis since 1st January 2007: Nil

    Number of polls showing ALP ahead by a minimum of 53/47 since 1st January 2007: Every single poll

    Feeling better already.

  30. This is why I don’t trust Morgan, nor believe anything they say, because they produce such an incomplete, rubbish analysis. Statements without explanation (e.g. Labor perhaps not winning Wakefield) and vague or dubious concepts such as the “soft vote” idea, leave them open to ridicule.

    Just present the numbers, Roy, and let others interpret.

  32. 78 Paul Hodgson- how does ESJ know that Paul Hodgson isn’t really William just making sure someone takes ESJ up on the bet? He can’t lose then. They don’t call be Diogenes the Cynic for nothing (although William does seem very honest).

  35. Morgan’s 56 to 44 2 PP does NOT transform into a landslide.
    IF this massive swing to labor is in VERY safe Labor AND VERY safe Liberal seats

    Both Galaxy & Morgan SHOULD BE disclosing the 2 PP vote FOR EACH seat polled
    so the Public can make their own judgement.

    Both Galaxy & Morgan have this info. and are keeping it secret are they not ??

  36. With the recent Morgan, Newspoll and Galaxy marginal seats polls all over the place, I’d rather focus on the individual seat betting and polls done exclusively for each seat.

    According to Simon Jackman’s analysis (based on the average individual seat odds in Centrebet, Portlandbet and Sportingbet) the 19 Coalition seats where Labor is the favourite (ie. 50%+ probability of winning) are:

    NSW: Lindsay, Macquarie, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Robertson, Page
    Vic: La Trobe
    Qld: Bonner, Moreton, Blair, Herbert, Bowman
    WA: Hasluck
    SA: Wakefield, Kingston, Makin
    Tas: Bass, Braddon
    NT: Solomon

    No current Labor seats in those betting markets are favourites for the Coalition to win. To me punters would only bet on a seat if they reasonably think they’ll win, so to me these look like seats that Labor has a reasonable chance of winning off the Coalition.

    To these 19 seats could be added:
    Deakin (Vic) where Portlandbet has Labor as the favourite
    Bennelong (NSW) where all the polls in that seat have shown Labor ahead – although this is not reflected in the betting market

    Plus there are 9 further seats, which according to individual seat betting or polls, are either too close to call or look like moving into favouritism for Labor:
    Corangamite (Vic)
    Petrie (Qld)
    Leichhardt (Qld)
    McMillan (Vic)
    Wentworth (NSW) – based on recent opinion polling but not betting on that seat
    McEwen (Vic)
    Sturt (SA)
    Paterson (NSW)
    Stirling (WA)

    So that’s 19 to 30 seats Labor could win – meaning to Labor:

    Worst case scenario: Lab = 79, Coa = 69, Ind = 2 (8-seat Lab majority)
    Best case scenario: Lab = 90, Coa = 58, Ind = 2 (30-seat Lab majority)

    That’s my take on what the election result could be, I’m sure there’ll be plenty of you disagreeing with me -either that I’m being too optimistic or too pessimistic.

  37. Friends , Do not underestimate the swing that is on here in Brisbane. Bonner is moving over hard ‘n fast . Moreton the same & expect some surprises… Ryan. Yes Ryan is ON & look out for Fisher too. Many more too!

    I will be vindicated next Saturday night.

  41. 85 Kiwipundit – would agree with your methodology, but favour the optimistic end of the spectrum (ALP majority of >24)

    To see anything other than a comfortable win for the ALP requires some uncomfortable contortions.

  44. Onimod,

    No idea what the limits are, but if you want to bet big, go to either Centrebet or Sportingbet. They’re the two biggest in terms of amounts bet, so they’re likely to give you the best odds if you’re betting big money…

  45. For info next Saturday the polls close @ (AEDT)

    NSW,Vic,ACT, Tas: 6pm
    SA: 6:30pm
    QLD: 7pm
    NT: 7:30pm
    WA: 8pm

    A result declared at???

  49. re post 85 the range I think is a little broader from plus 14 labor (most unlikely)
    to about plus 45 which also would be equally unlikely
    Many yrs ago I did a uni course on sampling which i failed from reading this
    blog I have learned a great deal … thank you
    marginal seat surveys unless they have a large properly chosen
    sample mean very little… due large moe….. but the total figures can be quite accurate ie 2pp

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