Sturt and Paterson polls

Two local marginal seat polls have brought relatively good news for the Coalition, though it would probably not do to read too much into them. Yesterday the Newcastle Herald brought us a survey of 300 respondents from the Port Stephens area seat of Paterson, which showed Liberal member Bob Baldwin enjoying a counter-intuitive primary vote lead over Labor candidate Jim Arneman of 46 per cent to 32 per cent. The respective figures from the 2004 election were 52.0 per cent and 36.1 per cent. It also points to a similarly unlikely non-major party vote of 21 per cent, compared to 11.9 per cent in 2004. The accompanying article’s reference to a “0.1 per cent margin for error” raises serious questions about the paper’s statistical expertise. No such concerns with a poll of 297 respondents from the Adelaide seat of Sturt, conducted by the Adelaide University’s politics department and published on the ABC Adelaide website. Nonetheless, the result sounds a little unlikely: a 50 per cent primary vote for Liberal incumbent Christopher Pyne, down just slightly from 51.7 per cent from 2004, with Labor on 40 per cent, up from 34.5 per cent. This translates into a 55-45 win for Pyne and a two-party swing to Labor of around 2 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

184 comments on “Sturt and Paterson polls”

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  1. #
    31
    Phil Robins Says:
    November 15th, 2007 at 5:20 pm

    Don’t know wherr Day’s rally is, but bet it has links to the Paradise Assembly of God Church.

    Oh Phil now you are going down my road, GOOD ON YA!

  4. But Phil it seems the latest trend for both major parties to flirt with the AOG its happening in Kingston. Shows that politics and religion is joining together. Is this due to a anti Muslim feeling or just that these massive churches can swing seats and must be won?

  5. Just before or after the last election there was a report in Crikey (if I recall correctly) of a senior ALP apparatchik visiting Paterson during the campaign and getting the feeling that they were doomed because of the quality of the grass roots campaign that Bob Baldwin was running.

    Maybe he should be given credit for being a damn good campaigner.

  6. But Phil it seems the latest trend for both major parties to flirt with the AOG its happening in Kingston. Shows that politics and religion is joining together. Is this due to a anti other religous feeling or just that these massive churches can swing seats and must be won?

  7. [ 53 Lefty E Says:
    November 15th, 2007 at 5:37 pm
    Coalition c0rrupt, says national auditor. ]

    The allegations about the grants have been made for years and no one has cared. There’s no proof that Labor wouldn’t do the same so I don’t think this Report will mean much to the average voter.

  9. “Incidentally, I’ve seen more 12 year olds wearing “Bob Day – Makin’ it Happen” t-shirts to fill a life time.”

    Yes he has been paying people (95% of them 15 years old or younger) to wander round the electorate with the shirts.

    Check out his myspace site, http://www.myspace.com/bobdayformakin
    It is rather disturbing to see so many 15 year old girls posting “I love you Bob, even though I’m not old enough to vote yet”

  10. [Yes he has been paying people (95% of them 15 years old or younger) to wander round the electorate with the shirts.

    Check out his myspace site, http://www.myspace.com/bobdayformakin
    It is rather disturbing to see so many 15 year old girls posting “I love you Bob, even though I’m not old enough to vote yet”]

    I wish I was on his pay role. I’d pocket the cash and burn the shirt.

  11. Is there anybody else out there who is finding this election campaign excruciatingly boring? Bored to death with John Howard (along with the rest of the nation) and if I hear Kevin Rudd say ‘education revolution’ or ‘working families’ one more time I will kick the TV in or throw the radio at the wall.

  12. Paul K is correct the grants have been regional pork for yonks – Howard just parroted his standard response that he has used in parliament many times before.

    I’m feeling lazy – look it up on Hansard. It is stock answer #18037B.

  14. Yes blackburnpseph. I grew tired of the Rudd v Howard show about 4 or 5 months ago. Thank god it’s only a week and a bit to go.

  16. blackburnpseph Says:
    November 15th, 2007 at 5:47 pm

    Is there anybody else out there who is finding this election campaign excruciatingly boring? Bored to death with John Howard (along with the rest of the nation) and if I hear Kevin Rudd say ‘education revolution’ or ‘working families’ one more time I will kick the TV in or throw the radio at the wall.

    It has gone on for too long with two boring leaders with similar policies. People miss the personalities like Hawke and Keating.

  18. [It has gone on for too long with two boring leaders with similar policies. People miss the personalities like Hawke and Keating.]

    I think it is interesting that if Howard loses the Republic and Reconciliation are back on the agenda – two issues Keating promoted 10 – 15 years ago. We have been on pause for that long, but surely the next Liberal leader will be a Republican, and genuinely committed to reconciliation. Howard himself has conceded that someone his age couldn’t deal with it. While I think that is wrong, Howard getting out of the way will surely move things forward in ways Howard couldn’t achieve.

  21. Living in Sturt I also found the poll strange for two reasons. Firstly, even if the primary vote is correct, assuming a 50/50 flow of preferences to Pyne seemed odd. With the Democrat vote collapsing, most of those voters will have picked between Liberal and Labor, or switched to green. Why would you expect 50% of Green preferences to go to the Liberal candidate? To me the preference allocation looks wrong.

    Second, as someone who lives in Sturt I perceived there woudl be a stronger swing. The seat boundaries have shifted north, including a much larger mortgage belt area in Tea Tree Gully. That should favour Labor. The local candidate (Handshin) is good – young but not niave, energetic, intelligent and getting good media coverage. Plus to my perception Chris Pyne is not very visible locally. So why would the swing here be any less than in the rest of Adelaide? IF it is teh same, Sturt should be 50/50.

    Last, and purely anecdotally, last weekend my wife and I were in Norwood shopping centre and there was a Liberal campaigner there. We noticed that all the people in front of us studiously avoided her glance as they walked around her. Not very encouraging.

  23. There was a lot of talk in the US before 2006 that the Republicans had a firewall strategy that would hold the swing in the marginals, they did hold some under the swing but then lost those above. Flynn, Bowman etc. will make up for any under the swing. Note also that Rudd has been in Mackay. I am bit amused by Liberal supporters imagining ways in which Howard could be re-elected against the will of the people

  25. KT wrote: “I don’t know the geography of Paterson well and couldn’t find Port Stephens on Adam’s map – which party does this area lean towards?”

    Port Stephens is that big inlet in the extreme south east of the electorate, KT.

    Think retirees and sea changers on the north and north east sides, some workers on the west end and a mix on the south, but still generally “voters with a water view” – check out the “Nelson’s Bay” inset on Adam’s map for a clearer picture.

    Outside of Port Stephens, think of grape growers and coal miners, dairy farmers, coastal retirees, bush greenies, large numbers of workers around East Maitland, timber workers, fishermen, etc etc. Paterson has huge internal variation. Probably not a bad reflection of the diversity of Oz, in fact.

    I hadn’t noticed the “Port Stephens” reference in the original post. It is a bit like picking the Sydney Harbourside suburbs out of Wentworth or Bennelong and assuming that it is a good reflection of the electorate (only even more dramatically selective).

  26. [Second, as someone who lives in Sturt I perceived there woudl be a stronger swing. The seat boundaries have shifted north, including a much larger mortgage belt area in Tea Tree Gully. That should favour Labor. The local candidate (Handshin) is good – young but not niave, energetic, intelligent and getting good media coverage. Plus to my perception Chris Pyne is not very visible locally. So why would the swing here be any less than in the rest of Adelaide? IF it is teh same, Sturt should be 50/50.]

    I’m a fellow Sturtian, and I agree with the points you make.

    The Advertiser poll isn’t believable because it had only a 0.5% primary vote swing to Labor.
    The Adelaide uni poll isn’t believable because it says 90% of voters are voting either Labor or Liberal, even though last time Family First got 4 and the Greens got 6.
    It is doubtful that the Green vote has gone from 6 to 1, with that 5% going over to Labor. Surely some of the extra Labor vote has come off the Liberals, and the Green vote is still 6, or even higher.

    If Handshin can keep Pyne’s primary vote below 46, she will win.

  29. Shows On, a friend in Sturt tells me that Pyne is very visible, seen everywhere in his marked marauder (haven’t seen it, myself) particularly local (not Burnside) shopping centres.

    Still, Mia still has a good chance. If not this time, the next.

  31. I’ve just heard that the AEC has CALLED OFF the election in Sturt.

    Apparantly a newspaper by the name of the Newcastle Herald has discovered a new way of working out the vote count which is more effecient then their polling booth system!

    The AEC when questioned responded: “From now on all future elections will be called off as the Newcastle Herald can work out the entire vote of the nation with just 300 polled with only a 0.1% error margin!”

  32. Mia Handshin certainly is an excellent candidate. She even got the nod from the male chauvinist Hagar Club, which is philosophically opposite to Emily’s List and as part of its charter raises modest funds for a male Labor candidate in a marginal seat. This time Hagar declared Mia to be an honorary male – she doesn’t fit that part in any way – and gave her the funds.

  33. #77 I think we’ll see a Westpoll in next couple of days either Fri/Sat/Mon. All the political news seems to be centred around a mate of Burke’s quitting the ALP because his missus got up to no good in the Legislative Council.

    My local Liberal Don Randall doing plenty at the moment. He’s on 9%, but he never really takes the place for granted.

  34. I went to visit the Arneman office today. Offered (for the third time) to host a sign. They said someone would ring me back. They said that before.

    I asked whether they would be running some TV ads. The response I got was something like ‘oh we cant compete with the kind of funding baldwin has.’

    I asked if Rudd might show up sometime. Haven’t a clue, was the response.

    I don’t know what is going on here. Paterson is winnable. the Labor party abandoned it last time. It *looks* like they are doing it again.

    Abotu the only positive was I asked about the Herald poll. I was told “they did a random phone poll of 300 people and it was done during the day.” so in other words, it’s a waste of newsprint.

    If there is anyone out there who had the ear of someone in ALP headquarters, can you ask them what is going on or plead with them to do something here.

    My hope is that they are going to run a last week letterbox drop directly disputing the Baldwin and Liberal ads.

    And for pity sake, Baldwin is just sitting here loving the perks of office and engaging in continual self promotion. It doesn’t surprise me he has good brand recognition, even some cult followers, but if you’ve heard the ads “bob baldwin works hard for Paterson”… well.. nuff said.

  36. [There’s a rumour that a new Advertiser Poll is about to be released & apparently shows Mia within 2 points of winning the seat.]

    I was about to post this!

    So as I suspected, this electorate is within margin of error territory, it could go either way.

    In fact Simon Jackman thinks it could be one of the last seats to fall.

  37. Howard was asked today what web site he liked. One he mentioned was “Baggy Green” unfortunately BG has not been around for over 3 years it is now aus.cricinfo.com.

    Pants on Fire 😉

  39. [Howard was asked today what web site he liked. One he mentioned was “Baggy Green” unfortunately BG has not been around for over 3 years it is now aus.cricinfo.com.

    Pants on Fire]

    No, he simply meant he likes Baggy Green caps – it’s the senility setting in, it results in weird answers to straight forward questions.

  40. [ Howard was asked today what web site he liked. ]

    Lucky they didn’t ask me. I’d only be able to remember the names of the porn ones.

  41. Patterson: yes, I get the impression the Labor Party isn’t too bothered about winning this seat. Rudd has concentrated more on Dobell and Robertson.
    I have to wonder about the wisdom of choosing a failed state election candidate.
    However, it’s astonishing the bookies have Belinda Neale favourite to win Robertson. I thought she was meant to be a complete dud. Is there that much anti Howard feeling in that electorate?
    Sturt: By all accounts, Mia Handslin is an outstanding candidate. If she doesn’t win this time, I’m sure the Labor Party will have something else for her in future.
    Any leaks yet on tomorrow’s AC Nielsen? Nothing on Nine news, indeed another negative report for the Rodent.

  44. There should have been a Westpoll of WA published last weekend but
    it has disappeared. I think that this is because the West Australian
    newspaper can not work out how to make it a positive for the coalition.

  48. [43
    Grog Says:
    November 15th, 2007 at 5:32 pm
    Howard is starting to get a little bit odd:

    “Howard’s my name, Howard,” the Prime Minister said.

    “This is Abbott and this McKillop,” he said pointing to Health Minister Tony Abbott and local Liberal candidate for Leichhardt Charlie McKillop on either side of him.

    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22764137-29277,00.html ]

    As a young boy, El Rodentino enjoyed lining up his toy soldiers before battle, taking great pride in remembering all their names.

  50. There was an early Newspoll that supposedly disappeared in the the year that was rumored to show 58-42, couple of weeks later one came out showing 58-42.

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