Two local marginal seat polls have brought relatively good news for the Coalition, though it would probably not do to read too much into them. Yesterday the Newcastle Herald brought us a survey of 300 respondents from the Port Stephens area seat of Paterson, which showed Liberal member Bob Baldwin enjoying a counter-intuitive primary vote lead over Labor candidate Jim Arneman of 46 per cent to 32 per cent. The respective figures from the 2004 election were 52.0 per cent and 36.1 per cent. It also points to a similarly unlikely non-major party vote of 21 per cent, compared to 11.9 per cent in 2004. The accompanying article’s reference to a “0.1 per cent margin for error” raises serious questions about the paper’s statistical expertise. No such concerns with a poll of 297 respondents from the Adelaide seat of Sturt, conducted by the Adelaide University’s politics department and published on the ABC Adelaide website. Nonetheless, the result sounds a little unlikely: a 50 per cent primary vote for Liberal incumbent Christopher Pyne, down just slightly from 51.7 per cent from 2004, with Labor on 40 per cent, up from 34.5 per cent. This translates into a 55-45 win for Pyne and a two-party swing to Labor of around 2 per cent.
There may be something to the argument that in a low intensity election (people don’t hate Howard but they like Rudd more) sitting MPs might have more a chance defying the swing than in a polarising election, pre-election marginal seat polls in 1984 showed this pattern at a time when Labor was way ahead in the national polls. Still both results seem odd. Were respondents asked the name of who they were voting for?
That isn’t the information I am getting from the people on the ground in SA, but Chris Pyne is a much better MP than Southcott in Boothby, so i guess it is n
ot impossible.
Just like the ALP with its 47%or 48% primary nationally, I dont see how Pyne could lose with a similar or better primary in Sturt.
With the amount of TV advertising Bob Baldwin is getting, I’m surprised he isn’t sitting on about 75% atm
I rang the Newky Herald and told them about the 0.1% MoE. I asked if they would publish a correction. No, not likely.
Pyne is obviously calling in a favour or two to get this nonsense published. After all he did learn a few tips from his master – and is clearly reading out of the Libs “dirty tricks” playbook. The Minister for Kindergartens is a gonner – big time – and he knows it. It’s hilarious to watch.
“0.1 per cent margin for error”
Ha!
Hi,
If anyone’s interested in helping me out by doing an academic survey on internet politics, here is a link:
http://um.com.au/civic/
Thanks,
Luke
Does anyone know who the 21% ‘others’ were in that Paterson poll? Is it the Greens or an independent causing it, or just a lot of undecided Labor leaners?
Just goes to show that the election is much closer than most people think and the swing is not really on in the marginals that count. We could end up seeing the lowest 2pp ever for a Coalition win.
9 -yes i am already nervous
Pyne may not lose Sturt, but by hell if he doesn’t he will be the member for one of the nation’s most marginal seats, I can assure you of that.
9 – Nostra
Yes – 45%TPP winning margin. You are as good as your namesake at making crap predictions!
Sturt is probably closer than that poll suggests, but never underestimate the effect of incumbency + pork.
The same poll gives two senators each to Liberal and Labor, with one to Nick Xenophon and a fight for the sixth between Xenophon’s partner Roger Bryson and the Greens.
wentworth, sturt etc etc – how many of these marginals that we were counting on do we write off before the alp is back to being in opposition?
The Sturt poll has a sample size of around 280. I’ve just tossed a coin ten times to see who would win (Heads majority Pyne, tails Handshin). Handshin came out on top 7/3. Just about the same level of accuracy, I reckon! 😉
[“0.1 per cent margin for error” raises serious questions about the paper’s statistical expertise.]
Beautifully understated, William. What we have here is a textbook example of jailbird psephology.
Michael @ 14,
Neither Sturt nor Wentworth are seats the ALP need to win in order to win government. Already, both Portlandbet and Sportingbet have Labor winning 19 seats from the Coalition from their marginal seat betting, with neither Sturt or Wentworth forming part of that 19.
Sturt and Wentworth are likely to be seats that fall if Labor ends up with 90 seats (not 80)….
#3: Much agreed. Baldwin’s running probably the best marginal seat campaign in the state on the Coalition’s side, doing independent fundraising so effectively he’s channelled some of it off into other seats and his name recognition is in the high 90s. He won’t lose Paterson.
Given that Patterson would be the 98th seat to fall to Labor on a uniform swing don’t get your hopes up Nostrils. 😛
Geoff at 1
I reckon the way pollsters ask questions like that, in terms of either candidates name or party is worth about 3% difference in the polling outcomes.
One of the more interesting things on election night will be to see whether the power of local candidature is greater than the rally to the ALP in a number of seats with prominent Coalition candidates.
I’m betting that the power of a prominent candidate will make a number of seats fall on the side of Coalition in close contests- which is why my “election prediction” for what it’s worth is 89, even though the swing I reckon will occur suggests a larger number of seats falling.
The margin of error in the Sturt poll is I think 6.2%.
Young voters seem to be embracing the ALP in pre-poll voting – a change from last time.
Liberal multi-millionaire Bob Day has a big rally in Makin on Sunday. Wish him luck in the middle of our heatwave!
Is there a national poll due Friday ie tomorrow?
Neither of them will fall. Let’s hope there is no swing in Sturt, that way, when SA does swing as much as it still will state wide, all that extra swing can be concentrated in Lord Downer’s seat. Now that would make the 24th really fun…
[Liberal multi-millionaire Bob Day has a big rally in Makin on Sunday. Wish him luck in the middle of our heatwave!]
Where is the rally? I’ve got some rotten lemons that I need a use for.
I posted this in the previous thread:
A Melbourne green businessman, Bill McHarg, set to spent $200K to run a campaign against Howard in Bennelong. He is taking out full page ads in the SMH and DT.
Apparently there will be a news conference outside Howard’s campaign office tomorrow. And there is supposed to be something on YouTube, to attract the younger generation.
All I can say, that’s not going to do Johnnie any good at all.
BTW, does the SMH or DT print a Chinese version and distribute it in Bennelong, as that could add to the punch too.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/green-businessman-bids-to-oust-howard/2007/11/14/1194766771843.html
[[Liberal multi-millionaire Bob Day has a big rally in Makin on Sunday. Wish him luck in the middle of our heatwave!]
Where is the rally? I’ve got some rotten lemons that I need a use for.]
Incidentally, I’ve seen more 12 year olds wearing “Bob Day – Makin’ it Happen” t-shirts to fill a life time.
Where exactly do they find the parents willing to have their children brain washed into wearing such t-shirts? Surely they could do the right thing and let the kids reach the age of 18 and decide their political allegiances for themselves.
Mike @ 23,
Let me say that I would rather that Sturt falls rather than Mayo.
The reason is simple – if Mayo falls without Sturt, the cannon fodder candidate that Labor put up in Mayo would be elected to Parliament whilst the eminently capable Mia Hanshin would not – a shame for the parliamentary Labor party in every regard…
PJK @ 12
Before you start questioning Nostros predictions cast your mind back to the 1983 election when we won with 46.77% of the TPP (noted that there were 125 seats in parliament).
This Election is close and we will need to fight every step of the way to win
Speaking of namesake your PJK gave us the worst seat loss after EGW in the history of the party so, who is talking crap now?
DLP, what are you smoking?
Labor got 53.2% of the TPP vote in 1983 – it was the Coalition that got 46.77%.
Even if some of the marginals in the southern states hang on (and I still believe that a landslide is the best bet), I cant see a worse result than 12 seats to Labor from southern states and Qld is going to swing big time. Labor’s vote was at rock bottom in 04 and just a normal correction would net it 3-5 seats but the polls have been consistent in the 9-10% range and I cant see anything under 6 and really believe that it will be closer to 10!
Don’t know wherr Day’s rally is, but bet it has links to the Paradise Assembly of God Church.
SW @ 29
I stand corrected (i must remeber to not inhale).
Must look at my stats again. Sorry
Looking at last time’s booth results in Paterson (see http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2007maps/patersonbig.shtml ) it is hard not to come to the conclusion that it is a desperately difficult seat to poll accurately.
It has got strong, populous, Labor sectors around east Maitland. It has got lots of “sea changers” and “retirees” on the coast. It has got farmers and grape growers and miners and uncle tom cobley and all. Miss any sector in your polling by just a little and the results could vary wildly.
Given the way these sorts of things often run “in the provinces” I reckon the Newcastle Herald copy editor has probably actually become confused about the difference between “.1” and “.1%” when it comes to margins of error. Try 10% MOE and we are probably closer to the mark!
DLP@28
In 1983 it was the coalition that got 46.77% of the TPP.
Labor got 53.23% and won in a landslide.
Paterson is not on my list of Labor gains. I live in Hunter and Baldwin is running at least 10 ads an hour between 6-8pm, and I have seen nothing from Arneman. The ALP are not really trying to win Paterson, as big Bob is too popular, unlike Ticehurst and Lloyd in Dobell and Robertson
27
Fair point Swing… although I would rather see Big Bird in parliament than have to suffer through another 3 years of Downer as foreign minister. Let’s both agree that we would rather both to fall then.
On Qld I am a little surprised there is so little marginal polling that has been released. Particularly in seats like Petrie, Page, Moreton and even down on the goldie. There seems to be a new wentworth or Bennalong poll every weekend, but if they go then 10 will go in Queensland….
[ 9Nostradamus Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 4:46 pm
Just goes to show that the election is much closer than most people think and the swing is not really on in the marginals that count. We could end up seeing the lowest 2pp ever for a Coalition win. ]
Nostie,
No matter how bad things get on election night I’m betting you’ll get up and say: “It’s not over yet, they haven’t counted the postals yet”.
You have answered your own question..geez..
I think it only takes one or two dodgy regional polls to scare the horses and arouse visions of a triumphant rat on election night. Those who need reassuring should read the Geoff Lambert piece that William posted on his last thread.
Labor can win this election with less than 50% tpp. So lets not get carried away with a Liberal win on 48% it will not happen.
If you care to look at the polls – all we have to base reasoned opinion on – there is a 10% swing to Labor in Qld on PRIMARIES.
Beattie was elected last Sept with 54.9% tpp – so there are many people who are happy to vote Labor given the right circumstances. Since then the State polls have hit 61% tpp for Labor.
Qld will give Rudd a win by itself. 😛
BenC you have to wonder whether Baldwin would bother running that many ads if he’s so comfortably in front.
[Labor can win this election with less than 50% tpp. So lets not get carried away with a Liberal win on 48% it will not happen.]
I don’t think the Liberals can win with 48, they could possibly win with 49, but even that would be unlikely.
Howard is starting to get a little bit odd:
“Howard’s my name, Howard,” the Prime Minister said.
“This is Abbott and this McKillop,” he said pointing to Health Minister Tony Abbott and local Liberal candidate for Leichhardt Charlie McKillop on either side of him.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22764137-29277,00.html
I don’t know the geography of Paterson well and couldn’t find Port Stephens on Adam’s map – which party does this area lean towards?
I suppose saturation advertising works well to an extent, but could it work in reverse? I know I’d get annoyed after a while, but I know I am not exactly indicative of a swinging voter.
LTEP,
You may be right he could be worried, but I would like to see some TV spots for Arneman. The mayors of Maitland, Port Stephens and Dungog are all on TV supporting Baldwin.
[I don’t know the geography of Paterson well and couldn’t find Port Stephens on Adam’s map – which party does this area lean towards?]
To me that implies Paterson takes in the ENTIRE Port Stephens area.
From what I have seen on the ground the Sturt result is a little inflated for the liberals. Sturt is quite an asymmetrical seat with a strong Liberal vote in the south and a strong Labor vote in the north, if a pollster wasn’t careful to get an even spread geographically they could very easily get a skewed sample, even while controlling for income, age and gender.
Nevertheless I think Pyne will win, just not by that much.
Swing Lowe, I met the Labor candidate for Mayo on the weekend at a street corner meeting. I have previously seen her at a candidates forum, she is certainly not the best public speaker in the world, but speaking to her one to one I was actually quite impressed.
KT,
Port Stephens is in the north of the electorate on the coast. Its a retiree haven and booths favor the coalition. If this is where the polling was I am not suprised about the numbers.
Port Stephens is the most marginal seat in NSW (on a state level at least).
The Libs won it off the Labor party earlier this year by something like 64 votes on TPP. However, that was after a 12% swing to the Libs, where the original Labor candidate had got caught up in some form of scandal (can’t remember what though…)
Yeah sorry, misread the blog post! Interesting that there isn’t a Port Stephens booth though.