Reuters has released a new Poll Trend result, a weighted aggregate of the past week’s Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen polls. It shows the first increase in Labor support since the campaign began, to 55.3-44.7 from 55.0-45.0 last week. Both parties are down on the primary vote, Labor from 47.4 per cent to 46.9 per cent and the Coalition from 40.8 per cent to 39.9 per cent.
593 [I resent your continual personal attacks.]
Toughen up GP you’ve got a decade of opposition in front of you yet.
I have been back and forth with 9 Sydney news department tonight to get a copy of the picture of Whitlam, Keatng and Hawke at the launch today. After much ado, it has been posted leading into this article. Anyone who wants a copy of it, you can hit the “save as” choice when you click on the picture :):):)
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/minisite/election_article.aspx?id=305448§ionid=6046§ionname=minisiteelection
LETP #574 Terrible thing to say, but most australians don’t think! (about the way the senate is elected anyway!)
Not that I would want to look at the worst PM in Australia’s history, so bad that he was dismissed from office.
Hey GP,
The reason why there are so few of you, is because there are so few of you.
Spot on Antonio re the “Queenslander” vote. The simple fact Rudd is from North of the border will mean a couple of percent, on top of what the normal swing will be. There really is no downplaying this and maybe a touch difficult for non Queenslanders to really appreciate, but there is much to be said for the banana benders sticking together… it’s the classic state of origin seige mantality. Further as the Queensland state election showed, the Brisbane metro seats have moved drastically to labor. I think the surprise the liberals are having is that this is flowing into the federal arena when it hasn’t done so for a long time. When booths in Carindale (Moreton /Bonner depending where) start to show labor getting even close to 50% the liberals are in all sorts across south east queensland..
[Turnbull is brilliant at putting Jones in his place on LL.]
Yeah, that’s a huge vote winner. No wonder he has such a huge lead in Wentworth.
Diogenes @ 600.
All I can say is, welcome to Poll Bludger. You’ll feel right at home; it’s just like a Labor branch meeting.
Did ya save the pik GP? Did ya?
Been There… I know. Less than 50% of Australians even know the Senate exists.
What I mean is, if you explained it to people not many would deny the importance of allowing a house to have equal representation for each state.
Just on the “wall to wall Labor governments” issue. And I hope there’s not to much of the h word in this (the one that rhymes with, er, shmubris).
Does the widespread success of Labor — state and now federally — suggest that the ALP could in fact be Australia’s natural party of government? Now, of course, the right had dominance for quite a few decades due to the reds-under-beds menace, not to mention widespread torymander. But much of that is in the past now. Rudd-willing, Labor will soon be more successful than at any time in history.
I like to think there is a little bit of substance in the idea that we *are*, a country that values egalitarianism and a fair go; and also that, historically, we are a country of collectivism rather than individualism. Therefore, it seems arguable that Australia is simply by its nature more likely to elect a social democratic party that values compassion/quality services/social-safety-net rather than a tory party that values individualism/shit services/stratified society.
Could this be the beginning of a new era of social democracy? Or are we simply stuck in a 3/4 terms in–3/4 terms out alternation? And does any of this matter any more thanks to the slow death of progressive labor values?
Labor has locked in 15, Libs pish polling in 20-30 seat swing category!!!!!
it’s wierd. In QLD wherever you went in 1996 you knew Keating was on the nose. It just doesn’t have the same feeling now yet the polls say it’s worse.
Hmm, just changed over to SBS who are showing Howard’s launch – note the lack of wide shots of the Liberal Audience, compared to the ALP launch who had people in the upper balcony.
604 [[Not that I would want to look at the worst PM in Australia’s history, so bad that he was dismissed from office.]
You tories have always told us that the job network works well. Come back in a fortnight and tell us how wonderful it is GP. No wonder you dislike the states being the wrong political colour and suddenly concerned about wall to wall Labor. How is the shredder going?
Pardon my ignorance .. but are there any surviving Liberal PMs apart from Fraser (who they have apparently disowned)?
#608
Except no need for a bucket in the corner to mop up the blood and gore afterwards.
Generic P, nobody died at war on his watch.
Pedant – it seems all children already have access to a computer!!
541
Possum Comitatus Says:
“If people get on your goat, ignore them ”
Amen.
” Latest on Qld, Ryan’s rooted, Gold Coast is interesting and composition shifts seem to be happening in the burbs. Have no idea what that last bit means, but it’s from the Libs and wasn’t said in a happy manner”
Too right Possum: the ‘composition shifts’ WILL reap Moreton, Bonner, Bowman, Ryan and Blair (dat makes 5 fer sure up here) and [so I am told] scare the Bee Gees [know your history ?] out of others including Flynn, Longman and (would you have thought so even a month ago ?) Dickson, IF they dont fall.
PS: For a few minutes today, when he was talking Workchoices, AWAs and giving puters to high school kids, K Rudd looked and sounded like a Prime Minister: about bloody time our library nerd showed abit of grunt and passion about something.
Good for u K Rudd: Very good press expected tomorrow on that one, even from {some} at the GG.
Don’t know whether anyone else watched the Chaser, but they showed Howard having one of his incoherent moments when trying to discuss economic indicators (couldn’t string too words together)..
He seems to be having more & more of these – he’s certainly not as sharp as he once was.
My wife generally doesn’t follow politics too much but she made the comment that he’s sounding more & more like Goerge Bush & should spend less time trying to mimic him.
Don’t you just love democracy. This powerful institution seems to scare the shit out of the Liberal trolls on this blog. Let’s never shy away from robust and healthy debate.
The main reason the many Liberal trolls are contributing here today is to hit out in anger against the other side. Their despair at the injustice of it all is palpable and in the end they blame the voters for daring to be so ungrateful.
How dare they throw out their hero? After all he has done for them? They do not even deserve to be lead by a leader with such amazing leadership abilities. The voters are not even worthy of Howard…the man of steel…the invincible…the Grandmaster…the Great Deceiver
Bring on the election…power back to the people
616 [are there any surviving Liberal PMs apart from Fraser (who they have apparently disowned)?]
There’s allegedly one from next weekend, Howard his name is.
No 611
I don’t think Australians are naturally collectivist and that’s part of the success of the Howard government whose fostered the idea of individualism and personal achievement.
But at the same time, Howard has maintained the traditional safety nets in health and welfare, which is why it is simply wrong to argue that Howard is a right wing nutter that lacks compassion.
Betamax @ 611
I’d love to think so mate, but I really don’t see much changing under Labor. Rudd is a clever politician, just like Howard, and while he is in charge my guess is that anything that is ever done will always have one eye on the next election. I feel as though the Labor Party may indeed act like a bunch of populists, just as the Coalition does. Think about it; if the “wets” dominated that Liberal Party, would there really be much difference from Labor? There is bugger all difference as it is.
Betamax
We are entering a new era, first time that governments of the same have all been in power together for a reasonable length of time. Bonus is that most are very competant and the remainder reasonably so.
But it is happening at a time of great challenges facing Australia, with inflation threatening to get out of control, even after 10 successive interest rate increases, and urgent action needed on health, education, housing and the water shortages.
Previous heads of government meetings have been a joke with Howard short changing the states on funding and ignoring their plans and ideas for the problems facing us.
This time will be different with the states and commonwealth meeting as equals and a wealth of talent and experience to tackle the problems.
Jake says: All I can say is, welcome to Poll Bludger. You’ll feel right at home; it’s just like a Labor branch meeting.”
Well, that’s right: The right-wingers hog the Chardy and bikkies; Centre faction whine about “no-one caring” that Sussex Street hasn’t answered that last letter about the bloke we put-up for pre-selection; And everyone throws stuff at that SL dude in the corner.
Not exactly, but like, very like.
No 626
Peter Beattie on yesterday’s Agenda, admitted that Howard has been a good PM.
Labor will win thus proving God is for Rudd and all Libs, esp. trolls, are heathens.
stu @ 613
That’s exactly what I said a week or two ago only to get screamed down by the ALP supporters on this website. I’m not detecting any difference in ’07 to ’04 really. It just doesn’t feel any different.
GP lost me way back when he/she/it claimed that
“ACOSS is virtually a mouthpiece for communists”.
At that point it is pretty obvious that engaging with this person is a complete waste of space. But knock yourself out people, distractions are always good if you don’t wake up with a hangover in the morning.
Evan @ 627
I have been to a few branch meetings (though I’m not a member), and thankfully they are boring as bat shit compared to this site.
Schadenfreude!
#621
Howard’s incoherent moments.
They are awful
I detest the man as the politician that has reversed this country into the dark ages, but I feel sorry ( as opposed to apologising) for anyone showing the signs of dementia.
[I don’t think Australians are naturally collectivist and that’s part of the success of the Howard government whose fostered the idea of individualism and personal achievement.]
WTF? The current mob have the biggest expenditure on transfer payments in government history.
Plus your rubbish about collectivism is bizarre. Australia had the first Labor government in the world. The Labor movement is part of Australian political history, the sooner your mob just realises it and gets over it the sooner it will return to government somewhere.
“it’s wierd. In QLD wherever you went in 1996 you knew Keating was on the nose. It just doesn’t have the same feeling now yet the polls say it’s worse.”
What? Polls say Keating is STILL on the nose in Qld?
On a related issue, someone commented earlier about Keating and Hawke raising arms together at the ALP launch, and saying Costello and Howard would never ever do that. Well, I don’t know. I would have said, back in ’93, that Hawke and Keating would never raise arms together, never ever. I would also have refused to believe that Whitlam and Fraser would one day be writing joint letters to the media.
Time heals a lot of wounds.
It was a long time ago now but i saw what the poster in 355 talks about as well.
David Speers on Sky election channel says they are going to an ad but the cameras keep rolling. He is talking to the next guest and says something along the lines of ‘they’ve all been giving it the thumbs up, i hope you have something scathing to say’ was said in a jocular way for mine but i’d love to see it again if anyone was taping it.
Happened just before 8pm when i switched over to watch the 7.30 report.
ESJ – What did you think of the Labor launch..? We can’t get any sense out of your other tory mates.
Quote for the day
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” H. L. Mencken 1880-1956
His ghost must have had a quiet chuckle in 2000.
I’ll conclude my last post for the night by saying; the reason that there are hardly any conservatives on this site, or any site on politics for that matter, is because THEY HAVE NO SUBSTANCE therefore always get their butt kicked.
My tip for ACN tomorrow night, hmmm, why not – 57/43.
595 Grog Says: (re: Howard’s attack on Mr Rudd’s ‘total spending commitments’)
[I thought it a rather odd comment given all the “pork metres” on every site]
Yes, but the tactic is about punching through with the right sound bite – even if it sounds nonsensical to many.
Example:
On four corners this week, one couple thought that Labor had back-flipped on their promise to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. Presumably this was based on the earlier attack on Mr Garrett’s comments re: signing a new protcol without some major emitters. By confusing the issue, the Coalition were able to take the advantage.
611 [why it is simply wrong to argue that Howard is a right wing nutter that lacks compassion.]
It is correct to argue that after 12 years of Howard that is what we have encountered and it is part of the reason he will lose both his seat and the election. .
From what I was briefed by a journo, the Newhouse nomination is not a Lib ‘dirty trick’.
An undated letter, possibly received late, allegedly back-dating a resignation, is going to be very problematic if he wins.
If he had resigned orally on the date in question, why not say so now? And why use a letter, not a fax?
It smells more to me like a possible cock-up. It’s a silly rule that qualifications have to be in order on nomination day, rather than by the declaration of the poll.
That said, Turnbull could petition, win in Court, and still lose in a re-election by a larger margin. On the other hand, if it were the seat needed for government…
Jake at 632: “I have been to a few branch meetings (though I’m not a member), and thankfully they are boring as bat shit compared to this site…”
True, unless, like me, you happen to be the SL dude in the corner.
In an earlier post someone said that the coalition hasn’t really lost this election, the ALP has won it.
I’d love to believe that, however I still believe that good governments don’t lose elections no matter what. Bad governments do lose elections, but only if the electorate believes the opposition could form a good government.
I think this is pecisely the situation we see before us.
– A bad government is about to lose an election, probably in a landslide.
– A majority of the electors believe that the opposition (and particularly its leader) can for a good government.
Game over, and I’m sticking with my prediction of 55/45 TPP with the ALP getting around 92 seats.
No Antonio, the guys you mentioned all got to be PM. Poor baby Cossie, ohhh!
Night all.
628 [Peter Beattie on yesterday’s Agenda, admitted that Howard has been a good PM]
If I was Peter Beattie and knew Howard has just over a week to go, I’d taunt him with that too.
From Possum’s blog by “Huckle”
It seems the Banks are already passing on the Interest Rate rise to their customers.
The Landslide may become a tidal wave.
[Nice suprise in the mail this morning – a letter from the bank passing on the recent interest rate to my home loan repayments. I thought of the Rodent and smiled.
Comment by Huckle — November 14, 2007 @ 9:20 pm ]
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/11/14/hi-i%e2%80%99m-kevin-and-i%e2%80%99m-here-to-make-your-kids-a-nerd-like-me/#comment-4539
Just saw coveage of the Labor campaign on Channel ten late night news. Overall pretty positive. Commentator Paul Bongiorno pointed out the connection between rising inflation and the Reserve Bank Governor’s warning on excessive spending promises, so Rudd’s position looked more responsible than Howard’s.
Been There @ 645
That was actually me. I tend to agree with you on second thought; it would have to be as you say. People wouldn’t get rid of a good government, and they wouldn’t get rid of a crap one either unless they felt safe in a change.
My argument is that to most punters this Government isn’t that bad, but they like the alternative and want to give it a stab. In this case it is not necessarily that the Government in entirely at fault for (possibly) losing the election. Get me?
Also Evan, I’d be in the Party if it was dominated by the SL, but we both know that isn’t the case, and isn’t likely to be the case for the foreseeable future.