Reuters has released a new Poll Trend result, a weighted aggregate of the past week’s Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen polls. It shows the first increase in Labor support since the campaign began, to 55.3-44.7 from 55.0-45.0 last week. Both parties are down on the primary vote, Labor from 47.4 per cent to 46.9 per cent and the Coalition from 40.8 per cent to 39.9 per cent.
630 LETP
I got the impression that Stu on 613 was saying that the anti-Keating feeling of 1966 had been transposed into anti-Howard feeling this time. But maybe that’s just my bias.
Julie Bishop v Stephen Smith on Lateline
Just saw that Courtice ad. What a joke – those clowns at Lib HQ have apparently mistaken us for some other English speaking democracy. Again, out of touch, out of time. The Lib campaign has been run by complete dolts.
Plus Courtice is ugly as batshit, and looks about as credible as the dodgy painter (and assorted other crims) who appeared in the Workchoices ads (remember those!).
ESJ- I know you take a keen interest in my local seat Boothby. I’ve been told by many sceptics in the last few days that Nicole is winning over the voters when she meets them in person. Evidently she is nice, charming, and a “genuine person”. I doubt that she will meet all the 80,000 sceptics in the electorate before the election but she just might get closer than earlier thought.
641 offline. True, but it again puts the economic arguement on the footing that the ALP wants – Rudd is going hard on being careful about listening to the RBA and easing interest rate pressures, so Howard defends that he is and then has to deal with the last 10 rate rises.
I have ordered the Moet and the Roquefort for the 24th!! hope the kevin07 balloons reach me in time as i have ordered the helium!!!!
624.
I agree, Unca Howie hasn’t completely dismantled the welfare state. And yes, he has maintained some key safety nets. But that’s part of his strategy. Decades ago, he used to proudly sing about his plans to destroy Medicare — and he was goddamn unelectable.
Then post-Fightback, he got wise. And he borrowed a battleplan from good old Quintus Fabius Maximus, qui vicit Hannibalem magnum (boy that university Latin is getting rustier by the year). Fabius didn’t face Hannibal head on, he ground him down, slowly, slowly, nibbling away at the edges — two lost grain wagons here, one dead elephant there. And eventually, only after he was weakened, he beat the holy crap out of him.
Same with Unca. He’s nibbled away at the edges of the compassionate state: not destroying Medicare and subsidised universities, but weakening them by creating a two-tier system of public and private.
[I got the impression that Stu on 613 was saying that the anti-Keating feeling of 1966 ]
Umm, don’t you mean 1996 ?
Bishop and Smith is boring. Honestly, not worth watching.
agreed RGee.
Dull issues.. oh geez, onto the Future Funds. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
J Bishop spewed forth about 96 billion debt, high inflation and high unemployment under previous Labor govt. Just can’t understand why current Labor MPs don’t know how to counter that! Or they don’t bother. S Smith not as polished as Gillard and Roxon.
Generic Person @ 628 – surely you don’t BELIEVE what Beattie (the spin meister) says?
ESJ @ 633 – Schadenfreude?! Is that what you really mean?
Centre @ 640 – I loathe party political sloganeering. I think the unions have abandoned their watch on under-privileged workers and only protect the well paid unionised workforce (read CFMEU, et al). Although there is much shame on the Liberal side (e.g. children overboard) there is also shame on the Labor side. I like Rudd and I do buy the ‘fresh ideas’ pitch (even though it sounds like a Woolies ad). But the proof of the pudding will be in the eating.
656 [Same with Unca. He’s nibbled away at the edges of the compassionate state: not destroying Medicare and subsidised universities, but weakening them by creating a two-tier system of public and private.]
And being the political genius that he is weakened himself at the same time. One more week and it is all complete; exit stage right.
[Just saw that Courtice ad. What a joke – those clowns at Lib HQ have apparently mistaken us for some other English speaking democracy. Again, out of touch, out of time. The Lib campaign has been run by complete dolts.]
And they’re running them in WA as well.
Pure Idiocy.
Oh and don’t expect the Kevin Reynolds ad to run either – Carps is moving to expel his wife from the Party cos she lied to an Upper House Inquiry, and the Libs Anthony Fels is also facing expulsion from the Libs as well.
And some people think Julie Bishop is the future of the Liberal Party????????
“Also Evan, I’d be in the Party if it was dominated by the SL, but we both know that isn’t the case, and isn’t likely to be the case for the foreseeable future…”
Yeah, it’s a real bummer when you’ve got to teach the words of the Internationale to a bunch of middle-aged Lawyers/Accountants, on the off chance that they may be called-upon to croak it out at some function or other.
By the way, this has actually happened to me. Sheesh.
The Party sure ain’t the place it used to be, that’s for sure.
Curse you Mexican with your hour up your sleeve!
LOOK at the centre of her eyes…..ahahahah
omg! I just saw that Brian Courtice thinks we shouldn’t risk Rudd!!
err who?
Geez 10 days out, you’d think the big guns would be firing by now.
Not sure about the latest ALP ad. But I have to admit I keep looking up when I hear the “buzz” and “ding”.
apart from some 911 event it is all over. it is more over than than my sex life which is saying something.
newspoll monday 55/45 all over wil cause even a greater landslide as people hope on board
My girlfriend asked me who the woman was with the creepy eyes and crappy clothes! LOL!
656 JC-I think caviar would go better with the Moet than Roquefort. I bought a Rockford Black Shiraz for election night on the weekend. God I’m looking forward to it.
She looks like “CHUCKY”.!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Libs have gone to bed. I guess they have school in the morning.
628 GP
He also said he was old & he should’ve gone last year
Diogenes – thinking of a 97 grange – only $495 a bargain.
Diogenes,
I think one of the few interesting things about this election will be the fate of Labor’s “non-traditional candidates” like Nicole Cornes.
I am always wary of comments like the ones you have reported because they sound like party spin.
The point is it does seem somebody in Labor wised up earlier this year that they needed to get good candidates in marginal seats and you have seen some quite good ones come forward, Cocks, Kelly, Cobran etc in place of some appalling hacks.
I’d be interested how some of these people will survive in Labor’s factional culture. The only recent experiment of a “star” recruit was Cheryl Kernot and that didnt end well. How will Labor’s caucus assimilate half a dozen people who have not been born and bred in a union/faction culture? I dont think Peter Garrett will even crack Cabinet if they win – suspect Combet will get his spot.
Is it snobbery that Cornes doesnt come from this culture which has caused this reaction? Is it jealously ? I dare say some of the Labor women would hate a good looking woman running who is not married/partnered to a Labor powerbroker?
I guess in politics generally you have to be doubly suspicious of any story about female candidates – they are either accused of sleeping around (falsely) or tend to hide behind a feminist veil when they are “sponsored” by a male powerbroker.
I know it’s off topic but DAMN YOU WILLIAM! I’m supposed to be cramming for a Constitutional Law exam tomorrow, but every few minutes I’m back here refreshing. That is terrible for productivity.
Rgee 671 –
Do they sell talking dolls now?
Views of a First Time Voter in Ms Bishop’s seat of Curtin.
http://www.postnewspapers.com.au/20071110/news/018.shtml
LOL I actually forgot to tune into Lateline. Was watching the Chaser online. Oh well, no great loss.
674 [The Libs have gone to bed. I guess they have school in the morning.]
They were told to go and do the shredding this morning and got sidetracked into shredding all on this site instead of the secret documents.
Jake just remember the Australia Act 1986
ESJ – Yeah, her name is Tabitha 😉
Damn that suit of Bishop’s is bad on TV.
There we go “blackhole!!!”
Only a matter of time.
643 @ Graeme-
Labor people tell me plainly that Newhouse will be in the out-house IF he wins in Wentworth. The seat will have to be contested again. I think by that time Turnbull will have wrangled a retirement out of someone like Ruddock and shifted to a safe Liberal seat for next time in a seat where he can shake off any residue ‘pulp mill’ dust hanging around by 2010.
I would be surprised (unlike our eternal pessimist or realist, LTEP) to find Labor needed Wentworth to govern given that my ‘feeling’ up here in Brisvegas is that there is an ‘Its Time’ feel about the place and this is going to be boosted ironically by Rudd copying Fraser’s mantra of the 70s, you cant just “Spend, Spend, Spend” today.
324 and 334
He also announced a sizeable barrell of pork = $20mil for the upgrade of our white elephant mall which nobody visits.
Colbran ALP pumps heaps of money into the local sports clubs and runs a Ronald Mcdonald house for assisting kids from out of town for medical stopovers etc.
He has the local franchises for the Macas shops and local polling has him at round 52/48 somewhere like that.
Thats $30mil of pork here today but we are still waiting for the $80mil of pork to flood proof the highway to cairns. The $80 mil was porked in the 98 election.
Funny you should say that, that act is not of relevance in this exam…
#72
“I prefer to think of him as 18th century man, holding onto the sides of the rickety tumbrel as it makes its way to the Place de la Revolution, the masses are laughing and shouting out insults, the guillotine is silhouetted against the sky, it is the end.”
Can we live in hope that retrospective laws might be passed that prevent multi-billion dollar jobs at MacBank etc.,. for an ex-PM ? Or will JWH be duly rewarded for workchoices ?
Betamax and GP (I know you talk crap for a living but on behalf of those with worthwhile lives I’ll respond anyway)
Yes a PM who lives in a multimillion dollar mansion on Sydney Harbour, tax-free at our expense, really cares about the welfare of others. LOL
Howard is just Joh-era Queensland transferred to the national stage – pure nepotism. Instead of looking after the needy, he looks after his friends, or at least fellow oldies who vote for him. No means tests on benefits means not just middle class welfare, but millionaire class welfare. Howard robs from the average and gives to the wealthy. Private school fees, capital gains tax breaks, retiree tax breaks, superannuation tax breaks, farm welfare, small business handouts, diesel subsidies for farmers and miners, while promises of company tax reform are quietly forgotten. Howard has his own piggery, its called our taxes.
Jame what the final removal of the privy council and all !!!
Jake
Out of interests sake what would happen if Howard was returned.
Inflation, continue running out of control, especially with Howards election promises, we would most likely get our 11th, 12th, 13, 14th and 15th succesive interest rate increase in a row, but Howard would just blame the states.
Health, a total shambles, the libs could not even handle one hospital, Mersey, without underestimating the costs by 35%, and totally stuffing up the administration, but Howard would blame the states.
Industrial relations, the Fairness Test would have to go, 50% of AWAs rejected, massive backlog and a huge administative nightmare for businesses. But Howard would just blame the unions.
Water, still shortages, probably commonwealth take over of water resources and then privatisation. No answer just the usual blame the states.
Housing, repossessions increasing for the battlers hit hard by rising interest rates and falling wages from Work Choices Mark III. But house prices soaring as investors take advantage of Howards new tax rorts to include their kiddies in the first home scheme.
Education, further tax rebates to help out the welthy private schools, no need for skills training as thousand more brought in from overseas under the 457 visas.
Climate change, no action as George is still agin it, 25 sites identified for the Nukes to tackle global warming. 2 in the ACT, 2 in Kingston, Badgerys Creek, Kurnell , Darwin, Jervis Bay, Bribie Island and probably sites where Howard had promised to release land for housing but decides is better used for Nukes.
ESJ @ 677 – I think you are on to something. But what we are seeing in the ALP is the continued move away from the union movement. If Rudd and others can pull this off it will strengthen the party. It is now time for the some of the Libs to look at their ties with far right moral and politcal ideals. Let’s face it – those ideas are not now or have never been part of the political mainstream in Oz.
Will anyone in the media investigate whether some sort of inducements were offered to Brian Courtice, maybe a plum job if the Rodent is reelected?
Isn’t it true Hockey has been in contact with Courtice lately?
Julie Trout was smiley on lateline. Something she knows that we don’t, or is she just getting excited about a fast-track to the Liberal leadership…
[And some people think Julie Bishop is the future of the Liberal Party????????]
Not much of a future hey.
Well, I think the worm has turned. I was at a small western NSW regional airport today, waiting to come home when the campaign launch came on. All the airport workers sort of lingered near the TV or wandered past several times. Maybe the airport boss recently tried to work some AWA magic on them. Within about 20 minutes, half the waiting passengers were openly interested. Rudd looked and sounded good. The mood in the terminal was tangibly positive. Someone chuckled derisively at the water policy, but it’s dry out there. Something’s happening here – and it’s getting clearer.
No 689
Typical class-warfare drivel.
I still wake up each morning and turn on sunrise dreading some absoulte extreme out of the bag “interest rate raising aboriginal terrorists have infiltrated unions and are throwing children off the tampa” type situation.
It has worked in the past so I dont see why not again.
Being a unionist myself I just find it so hard to believe the best they can do this time around is to put photos of the scary Bill Shorten in black and white and act like he is your worst nightmare.
It comforts me greatly to see the overwhelming majority of support the ALP is getting in response.
662 Elninio-
The workers hit hardest buy workchoices are the workers you claim have been abandoned by workchoices. The laws prevent union access to these workers more than in other industries because the workers dont have any bargaining power to get the boss to allow the union in. Specific examples include making it illegal to visit a workplace where people reside i.e. clothing industry outworkers.
The unions which have grown in membership and outcomes over the last 5 years against the trend actually include the retail workes, child care workers, aged care workers and hospitality workers unions. Employers in these categories have become increasingly national and international in thios time and therefore more interested in accessing unfair laws like workchoices. Unions in that area however have doubled their efforts with members to win on the ground.
Dont mistake the workers being hit hardest by workchoices to mean these workers have been abandoned by unions. You are laying the blame in the wrong direction.