Reuters poll trend: 55.3-44.7

Reuters has released a new Poll Trend result, a weighted aggregate of the past week’s Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen polls. It shows the first increase in Labor support since the campaign began, to 55.3-44.7 from 55.0-45.0 last week. Both parties are down on the primary vote, Labor from 47.4 per cent to 46.9 per cent and the Coalition from 40.8 per cent to 39.9 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

760 comments on “Reuters poll trend: 55.3-44.7”

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  2. I think we will have an AC Nielson and Morgan on Friday, and then one more Newspoll on Monday. The trend all years has basically been 55-45 ALP. The Coalition need something or they are dead.

  6. “I still think the polls will be much tighter on November 24th than they [current] appear.” – Dennis Shanahan

    Teh Narrowing si back!!1!11111111!!111!11!1

  8. Howard isn’t going to get much more airtime, the cricket will start up again on Friday. Inertia is such a b*tch, especially when you’re way behind and no force in the world can give you the acceleration you need.

  9. The Lib hacks at the news.com.au comments are going feral, I sense a fair degree of desperation in the air.

    Know I shouldn’t dignify them this this post is hilarious:

    ‘Where did Rudd get the Education Revolution idea, most likely from Chairman Mao. Communists have one of those and wrecked China, Russia, Cambodia and other previously commie countries for years. Rudd should call it “an Education Revolution by Unions” in Australia, they are all commies anyway.’

    HA HA HA HA HA HA

  10. 2
    sondeo Says:
    November 14th, 2007 at 3:53 pm
    I think we will have an AC Nielson and Morgan on Friday, and then one more Newspoll on Monday. The trend all years has basically been 55-45 ALP. The Coalition need something or they are dead.

    “Need” something? Sorry, rigormortis is setting in. Can’t you hear the funeral dirge at Kirribilli?

  11. Coalition at 39.9% primary. libs on about 34% – basically one-third. A fitting epitaph to the Howard years, that none but the rusted on remained.

  12. They could have just used Possum’s graph from last month…

    Would love to see these numbers on 24 Nov, but I would be just as happy with 54/46!!

  14. Not sure if anyone has noticed this already, but Labor has firmed to $1.32 (from $1.35 this morning) on Sportingbet, with the Coalition out to $3.55.

    Is this a reaction from the campaign launch?

  15. [Is this a reaction from the campaign launch?]

    Yeah, Howard got the department of Prime Minister and Cabinet to put his entire super pay out on Labor.

  16. This is ridiculous. If the Coalition win I will smash my head through this monitor in disbelief. They’ve got nothing surely. It would take a miracle right? Then why am I still worrying?

  19. [This is ridiculous. If the Coalition win I will smash my head through this monitor in disbelief. They’ve got nothing surely. It would take a miracle right? Then why am I still worrying?]

    Relax your eyes with this graph:

    2007 looks a lot like the inverse of 1996.

  22. #16 remember that’s primary votes as well Jake. It’s tough enough for the ALP when they dip under 40%, for the coalition it’s a slaughter.

  23. If these numbers aren’t reflected on election day and we have a Coalition win, then all 4 polling companies will have to question their worth as election pollsters.

    As will said @ 17, why am I still worried. Bring on the 24th of November 9PM!!

  24. [#16 remember that’s primary votes as well Jake. It’s tough enough for the ALP when they dip under 40%, for the coalition it’s a slaughter.]

    I’m still hoping the Liberals will get less than latham – below 37.4%

    But my guess is they’ll get about 40

  26. As for Shanahan, he’s just been ridiculous this year, but I think the election will be closer than 55-45.

    I am, however, hoping it isn’t.

    I posted ont eh previous thread that Rudd can simply say Howards $800 for fees will just be passed on, whereas his gives benefits in other tangible areas of education, not just laptops, but books and other things as well.

    I also think he really needs to emphasise that you still get Labor’s rebate if your kid goes to a private school. We all know that this is the case, but a fair few undecideds may not.

  27. I liked this line from Bolt’s blog

    …the takeaway image most viewers will have is of the fresh face of a nice, conservative young man, clearly intelligent, speaking passionately about the future. That should be enough to deal with Howard.

  28. The only potential reason I can see for a different outcome on election day is the “David Duke” effect – people wanting to vote for a noxious candidate but not wanting to admit it. The short man may be noxious, but he’s no KKK grand dragon and Australia isn’t the Deep South. It may have a small impact, but not 10%!

  29. Its not exactly going out on a limb to suggest the poll is going to be closer than the current 55-45-more insightful analysis from Spanahan.

  31. 16 Jake Says: “Then why am I still worrying?” – I know that feeling, that little grain of doubt, it’s insidious, but it’s just an artefact of 11 looooong years of Ratocracy, rest easy Jake, and get ready for the mother of all hangovers on the 25th.

  37. Did anyone find any policy by the Libs in this campaign in regards to Higher Education? That could be very bad for them if they’ve left it out. Not that I’m complaining, but it will look very bad when there are parents trying to work out how to get their kids through uni, and also those voting age uni students wanting to go in to postgrad studies.

  40. Well, if this poll is anything to go by in 10 days’ time then the result would be 54 Coalition seats to Labor’s 94. A very ugly result, indeed for Mr Howard.

  42. Poll on SMH – who had the better launch? lol, here are results so far 🙂

    Reader Poll

    Campaign launches
    Which party’s launch was the best?

    Labor – 80%

    Liberal – 20%

  45. I think we’re all getting a bit ahead of ourselves. I think the launch went well – there was nothing there that should cause a late swing back to the govt… unless we over-estimate our fellow Australians – something I think I’ve done in the past.
    What if they look at each party’s policies and say: “Who’s gunna give me the most money?”
    I think it’s unlikely, I just think we need to see how the launches play out in the polls.

  46. Hi,

    It would be interesting if someone could collate all of the pro-Howard/Coalition comments/predictions by the MSM (especially by say Dennis at the GG, Piers Arkerman, etc).

    It would serve as a useful source of political bias/commentary/analysis – particularly for some pseph’s & political science types!!

    Regards,

    Paul

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