Reuters poll trend: 55.3-44.7

Reuters has released a new Poll Trend result, a weighted aggregate of the past week’s Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen polls. It shows the first increase in Labor support since the campaign began, to 55.3-44.7 from 55.0-45.0 last week. Both parties are down on the primary vote, Labor from 47.4 per cent to 46.9 per cent and the Coalition from 40.8 per cent to 39.9 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

760 comments on “Reuters poll trend: 55.3-44.7”

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  1. The money thing is crud. Labor cut tax cuts to over $180,000 and made education rebates targeted and means tested.

    It will not lose a single vote – but it shows Howard’s $7 billion of pork.

  2. All but gone for the Rodent.

    Today’s Morgan poll showing state splits is enough evidence of that, with even WA showing a Primary swing to labor of 7.4% since the 04 Election

    The Age Of Kevin Is Upon Us

  3. “Who the bloody hell is Brian Courtice?”

    A former member for Hinkler who is pissed off that his wife lost endorsement for a State seat.

  4. I too worry a little, but I think it’s the result of 11 years and 4 election losses.

    Looking at it objectively, from a stats point of view, it’s hard to see how 4 major polling companies – who have a commercial interest in being accurate – could be so far out of whack with the final result.

    There’d have to be a disconnect between polling and true intentions. Furthermore, this disconnect would have to be (a) massive (ie hundreds of thousands of individuals), and (b) widespread across the nation. Such a volte face would be unprecedented in electoral history, that I’m aware of. I also struggle to think of any rational reason for such a disconnect to occur, except for some kind of ‘protest’. But even that is obviated by the consistency of polling over an extended period of time (11 months!).

    My heart is still praying, my head is already celebrating..

  5. Did anybody else notice David Speers in his summary of Labors campaign launch continually refered to Howards educational rebate as being of momentous significance as compared to Rudds rebate based on computer and other related costs– even though for the lower income earners the difference would only be $25 and $50 respectively.

    In addition he made much of the Libs decision to pay child rebates up front even though labor will pay 50% of costs as against 30%– a real bonus for those involved. Has he joined the Shanahan school of political journalism and reverted to his childhood where if you wished hard enough for something you might just get it.

    If however he is right and you can buy enough votes for a paltry sum then we as a nation are truly rooted.

  6. #45 Michael –
    the “who’s gonna give me more $’s?” vote explains most of the 40% rusted on conservative vote.
    And the rest is made up of those still hanging out for a return of The White Australia policy.

  7. @47

    You’re right. And the one thing Howard might have been hoping to do in the last week was announce some more spending. Something, if the does it, will only sink him further.

  8. Gus,

    I think Speers was concentrating more on the fact that the money will be going directly to people’s wallets under Howard’s plan, but will be invested directly in schools under Rudd’s – the whole theme of the analysis is that will people be bought over by the money going into their pocket rather than having it go directly to the schools.

    I don’t really think he was saying that the quantum of money offered by either party in regards to the education rebate was that big a factor…

  9. Just read Bolt’s article – did you see the tory bloggers hammering him – you dont see that everday – the arch conservative Andrew Bolt being shat on by his own side of politics!! However, I think he’s hit the nail on the head – its all over red rover!

  10. yes, how to rid oneself of that niggling bit of fear? i’m going to try behavioural therapy – every time i get panicky about labor maybe not winning, i’ll just resort to being rational. i’ll pore over the polls. i’ll look at william’s lovely graphs.
    kirribilli removals, do your chaps-with-straps need any help on sunday week?

  11. Well, I am looking forward to this election being over. Only 10 days to go. Those who want a change of government have the best reasons in a long time to feel confident – great and consistent polls, government kicking lots of own goals, and Howard running around like a headless chook throwing cash at anything that moves.

    But this is not over. There are still 10 days for stuff-ups. And Labor does need a pretty big swing to get all the seats it needs, plus this swing needs to be in the RIGHT seats and in the RIGHT parts of the country. I have also seen people become taken in with the union scare campaign by the government – it happens more easily than you think.

    I suggest that anyone who REALLY wants a change of government, then contact the party you plan to vote for and offer some help. Hand out how-to-vote cards on election day. Or offer to do some leaflet dropping. Or at the very least, write some blog comments on major newspaper sites where the general public are more likely to view them.

  12. Got to love this from Vaile. He was talking at the NPC and responding to Joyce’s annihilation comments.

    But Mr Vaile defended the Coalition’s approach.

    “Can I suggest to all my colleagues that they all need to keep working very, very hard between now and 6:00pm of the 24th of November to get every vote they can, because Australia’s future depends on it,” he said.

    Doesn’t that smell of being defeated and it’s the firewall approach? Like save as much as we can and just hope to fall over the line?

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/14/2090964.htm

  13. I like Andrew Bolt’s conlusion remark on Labor launched campaign:

    “… Very good speech overall, with fine imagery, a good slogan and hard hitting of Howard where it will hurt. The headlines will be positive, especially on education (that “future” image again).
    …That’s Rudd’s last big challenge out of the way. Play it safe from here on, and Labor has won.”

    hooray! 🙂 no hubris, I swear 🙂

  14. I did see a reference to JWH being like the old family labrador, arthritic and nearly blind, being led to the car for the last trip to the vet….

    I prefer to think of him as 18th century man, holding onto the sides of the rickety tumbrel as it makes its way to the Place de la Revolution, the masses are laughing and shouting out insults, the guillotine is silhouetted against the sky, it is the end.

    Makes me quite teary…not.

  15. BK: it stands for Government Gazette, because the Australian is a well known mouthpiece for the Liberals.

    It will soon need a new acronym 🙂

  16. Sky has opened the 5pm news with Howards rebuttal. Howard is claiming Rudd is “dishonest”.

    Must ……… resist ……… urge ……… to …….. throw …… remote …. at ….. the …. tv ……

    10 more days 10 more days 10 more days ….. just keep counting down the numbers

  17. Stephen Merchant’s character in The Office is called the Oggmonster. Maybe that could be borrowed – Opposition Government Gazette?

    Or will people just go back to Murdoch Mouthpiece?

  18. Here’s my take on the respective launches:

    Howard just got reverse Latham-forrest-policied! They circled each other, Howard launched first, spent up big and then Rudd could just waltz in and appear more economically conservative. Nice work Brian Loughnane!!!!

  19. “It shows the first increase in Labor support since the campaign began, to 55.3-44.7 from 55.0-45.0 last week”

    That’s a brave call given the sample sizes even of aggregated polls.

  20. 78 – The trouble with that analogy is that “the owner of Yeller….agrees to trade the dog to Arliss in exchange for a horny toad and a home-cooked meal”. I’m not sure JWH would be worth that! Yeller get rabies and is shot by the lad….nice.

  21. I mentioned in another thread that I don’t have Sky. I watched the stream today after the launch and couldn’t believe David Speers’ reporting. He was third rate at best.

    The polls will put these sorry illiberal apologists out with their trashy heroes. Goodbye rodent.

  22. Let’s understand something about form and momentum. WE saw it with the 2 football codes this year (sorry, not soccer). All season the Cats and Storm were the form teams, and in the week before the grand final I read volumes of talking up of Port and Manly, saying how close it was going to be. In my wildest imaginings I could see that both games could be close, but my gut instinct told me both games would not be close and, taking the double on Centrebet (Cats > 49 and Storm > 13) gave me a nice little earner.

    I am here to say I have the same feeling about 24/11 and, although I’m not shouting it from the rooftops, this ain’t gunna be close.

    Bring on the grand final.

  23. Well, it looks like the claims that George Newhouse’s candidature is invalid was a heap of lies. Another dirty trick from the government’s dirt unit? Or has Turnbull picked up some tips from the old master, Howard?

    “NSW Fair Trading Minister Linda Burney says George Newhouse resigned as a paid member of the NSW Consumer, Trader and Tenancy Tribunal days before he nominated to run for federal parliament.”

    “Our nomination and my nomination is totally in order and this is just simply a dirty tricks campaign by my opponent. It’s obvious that people are throwing up sand.”

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/newhouse-quit-days-before-deadline/2007/11/14/1194766732458.html

  24. http://www.theherald.com.au/articles/2007/11/14/1194766715508.html

    Result of a local newspaper poll for the marginal/relatively safe Liberal seat of Paterson.

    “VOTERS in the Hunter’s most marginal seat, Paterson, have provided a boost to the Coalition Government with a Herald poll showing the Liberals opening up a big lead over Labor.

    The poll, taken between November 5 and 12 and allowing a 0.1 per cent margin for error, gave sitting member Bob Baldwin 46.3 per cent of the primary vote with Labor’s Jim Arneman on 32.3 per cent.

    The remaining 21.3 per cent of voters indicated a primary vote for one of the minor parties or independents, meaning preference flows will be vital to any chance of a Labor victory.

    The Paterson voters also provided solid support for Prime Minister John Howard who, while out of favour nationally, leads Labor leader Kevin Rudd as preferred prime minister by more than 11 percentage points in the seat.

    The poll results reflect little of the marginal status granted to the seat of Paterson for most of the past decade. Moreover, the poll was taken in the same week the Reserve Bank lifted official interest rates, adding more pressure on the Howard Government’s election chances.”

    No sample size given and margin of error quoted seems a bit difficult to believe. Also appears to be against the trend in NSW. However, the Libs have been pumping a mozza of advertising out up here and Baldwin has been going around claiming credit for just about everything.

  25. Chris Ulmana-try-to-throw-a-spana on PM doing his level best to make the ALP sound arrogant and talk down their lower spending.

    The bias is unrelenting!!!

  26. This is classic Howard lies and spin.

    In that account, the Coalition had spent $11.7 billion and and Labor $12 billion so far during the campaign.
    To go around suggesting the Labor had pledged a quarter of the Coalition’s election commitments was dishonest: “Well that’s deceitful, Mr Rudd.”

    Howard links Rudd’s statement about 25% to the whole campaign, while Rudd was referring to the policy launch comparison. Absolutely classic Howard.

  27. While waqiting for “Deal, No Deal” The 7 News promo says the lead story is “Rudd’s Cut Price Election Launch”. There is no way of turning the MSM

  28. I bet Howard is not counting the Utilities Allowance for Carers and DSP recipients – this was pre election but not announced till the campaign.

    But of course he will cost it as a Labor election promise. 🙁

  29. BV Says:
    November 14th, 2007 at 5:22 pm
    Chris Ulmana-try-to-throw-a-spana

    No one listens to PM. The figures are tiny. At least AM can half get something up for the day. Chris ILL will hopefully be razor ganged, go and be a copying boy for dapper AJ.

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