ACNielsen online poll: 56-44

The Age has published the third of ACNielsen’s online polls, which are taken from a representative sample of around 1400 volunteer market research subjects. It shows Labor leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, the same result as the previous such survey a fortnight ago. However, Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 45 per cent, with the Coalition also down a point to 40 per cent. John Howard has picked up three points on the preferred leader question directly at the expense of Kevin Rudd, whose lead is now 50 per cent to 42 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

574 comments on “ACNielsen online poll: 56-44”

Comments Page 9 of 12
1 … 8 9 10 … 12

  5. Mark 396
    Try using another email address, I got banned for suggesting warney and Pauline would do well in Germany together 😉 I gave another email address and got through fine.

  7. Actually, talking of WA polling, it seems that Westpoll is late with its
    November WA poll.

    http://www.marketresearch.com.au/our_services__flashpoll_dates.21.html

    The last few monthly ones seemed to come out in the West Australian
    on the Saturday after “reporting date”. So that would be today
    for the November poll.

    It is possible that the West Australian newspaper actually has the
    results on time but can’t think how to make them look good for the
    Liberals.

  8. JHIAC #405,

    What rot. The day that I vote, or even preference Liberal, is the day you need to check for electoral fraud. Never done it, never going to. I am fully aware of what a destructive force they are, and want nothing to do with them.

    Unfortunately, the average Joe Six-pack has disagreed with me time and time again. Gotta face it, Howard and his cronies are good at issuing bribes and barrels of pork.

  9. SeanofPerth 395

    Refer to #393.. Harden up lad! There was enough voters in WA to vote in a Labor state government for the last 2 occasions (even with the ultraconservative media here at work), therefore there must be enough people in WA that are willing to vote Labor in federal politics too. Stop letting people like Glen, Tabitha & Ave it 07 make you nervous.

  14. Election night I’ll be at the ALP party in Moreton – if there’s any reward for hard work, we’ll at least be celebrating the seat win. But hopefully it will be all over anyway by the time the polls close in Qld.

    The booth I’ll be working (Moorvale) went 52.6-47.4 to Labor in a losing campaign in 2004; so this time round it should be a good place to spend the day 😉

  16. JHIAC #413,

    Checking…..yep, got the balls. Faith – that’s another matter. When it comes to the intelligence of the average voter, I’m an atheist. If Labor wins this election with a clean campaign, I’ll start believing in God again (metaphorically speaking).

  18. The fact that you can now find journalists writing off the Liberals, barring a world catastophe of some sort, is proof to me that the Libs are in awful trouble. Those same journalists have not been game to predict anything up til now.

  21. Federal Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull is facing a strong challenge to his eastern Sydney seat of Wentworth, according to a new galaxy poll to be published tomorrow.

    The poll of 800 voters in the Sunday Telegraph shows Mr Turnbull leading Labor’s candidate George Newhouse by eight points on primary votes.

    But after preferences, the two parties are locked at 50 per cent each.

    In 106 years, Wentworth has never been held by Labor, but Mr Turnbull is trying to hold it with a margin of 2.5 per cent.

  23. Turnbull under a bit of pressure in Wentworth? Sounds good for Labor nationally, as one would think it’d be the seat with the least swing in Eastern seaboard states.

  24. The discussions on these online debates now shouldnt be whether Labor wins the election but more about which safe Exclusive Brethren & National Farmer Association seats will fall to Labor. We have reached that point I believe. Labor WILL win, its just a matter of which Ministers will get the arse. I wish you guys would stop falling for the tory propaganda that they are still in it when all the evidence shows THEY ARE CLEARLY NOT.

  25. I think Turnbull will hold Wentworth, but if he only holds it by >1%, it will kill his chances of being leader – unless they figure him being leader would give him a few votes (though after the Bennelong loss I doubt they’ll risk it)

  26. Just got back from the ALP arts launch at Parramatta. Garrett and McKew both there. Garrett spoke very well, and good support in the artistic community, but then again ther always is.

  28. David Spears almost gloats every time he mentions Howard’s name. I wonder when he’ll enter politics for the Liberal Party. Oh wait, I think he already has.

  30. If the polls hold or narrow only a little you’ll see our friend Rupert the walking corpse endorse Rudd before the 24th. Though he’ll each way bet it with commissioning some felching artlcles from Shanahan and Kelly.
    Though Kelly might be a 50-50%.

  34. ruawake 416

    Headingley 1981. Calcutta 2001. If your using cricket analogies, please realise that teams have won after following on (and Australia lost both times, bugger it)…… although very rarely. I’m sorry, I’m a cricket triiva buff, and I couldn’t let that one slide LOL 🙂

    BUT, I think that the Libs are headed for an innings defeat in cricket jargon.

    I am sick of the Laborites on this site with this attitude that JWH will pull something out. He hasn’t for 9 months (since the beginning of the campaign, yeah OK officiall it started 4 weeks ago, but who are we kidding).

    People, he has 2 weeks to pull back 4-5%, that’s a lot of votes.

    Positive thinking people……..

  35. Just a little comment on the campaign, can anyone remember what were the dominant features of week Two, Right thought not. Labour has won every state election for yonks, the tories have one one federal every 3 years, the ALP machine have been getting better at this stuff, one of my favourite saying is “Don’t skin the Bear until its Dead”

  36. hello folks , I had a call from the Daily Telegraph yesterday informing me that they were doing a promotion in my area and offering to sign me up for a subscription.
    Of course i politely told them what they could do with their liberal party rubbish!

  37. The only thing that might save him is a stock market crash. Wall St is very jittery, down another 2% or so last night. The chances of anything dramatic happening in the next two weeks is slim though. I guess even a ‘correction’ of 10-15% would be hyped up so much by the government and press that it could swing a few votes. It would have to be pretty dramatic to register with the average voter though.

  38. I had a sheep one time and his name was Max – well every morning I’d say “good morning max, had a good night?” He’d say Naaaaaaa “Did you like your food? he’d say naaaaaa – In the end I’d say do you like that fcker JWH and he’d say NAAAAAAAAA – smart sheep that

  41. Ofcourse there is the sleeping-dog matter of Iran….another military adventure might do the trick. Won’t be surprised by any dirty tricks.

  42. ruawake 440

    Yeah, but are there umpires prepared to give Harbajan some dodgy lb decisions among the voters

    I am the analogy king!!!!! LOL

  44. ‘There was a cunning old polly called Howard
    Whose nature painted him as a coward
    He wore sincerity as a mask
    Which the people saw through like glass
    And he ended up being totally shattered’

  46. Lindsay voter, thats true, but Labor has no big counter-punch in that week

    I’m sure at the ALP launch, there will be a big policy anouncement (im guessing something to do with unis or climate)

    That will take away the momentum of the Libs

    The Libs went well in week one becuase they just loaded pressure on Rudd to release his tax policy and thats all everyone crapped on about until the following week

  47. Did anyone see Ratty on the 10 news? Him and Mrs Rat were in a near empty basketball stadium out Penrith way. They were both bending down trying to accost the couple of dozen young kiddies that had been set up for a bit of politicing and the silly old buggy was going ‘click, click’ pretenting he was taking photos … well I think that was what he was up too! fark! I think he’s losing it… Oh and God he’s looking so ooooollllllddd!!!

  48. “The only thing that might save him is a stock market crash.”

    That will only give Labor the chance to talk up business with China… and planning for beyond the mining boom etc… ie. someone thinking and planning ahead, not just relying on the USA. Rudd’s Chinese ‘connection’ is quite a useful trick to have up his sleave.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 9 of 12
1 … 8 9 10 … 12