ACNielsen online poll: 56-44

The Age has published the third of ACNielsen’s online polls, which are taken from a representative sample of around 1400 volunteer market research subjects. It shows Labor leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, the same result as the previous such survey a fortnight ago. However, Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 45 per cent, with the Coalition also down a point to 40 per cent. John Howard has picked up three points on the preferred leader question directly at the expense of Kevin Rudd, whose lead is now 50 per cent to 42 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

574 comments on “ACNielsen online poll: 56-44”

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  2. As I understand it the Morgan F2F are conducted in the same way as elections. You’d think this would give a truer picture of people’s intention than polling which isn’t anonymous. So how can the F2F be so different? I appreciate that all the polls use a degree of weighing, but to create an 6-8% variation Morgan must be appying a lot to raw numbers that you’d think would more accurately reflect the participants true intentions and should therefore require less adjustment.

  6. I’m delighted to hear Gary Bruce and Dazzamack giving the troops a rev-up as three-quarter time approaches. I always think that the person who sustains the morale of the team (not just in sport, but in any activity which requires collective endeavour) whenever it’s shaky is a critical factor in ultimate success. When the other side scores, it’s imperative that everyone knuckles down to the task, redoubles their effort, and restores the conviction of the waverers that there will ultimately be a famous victory.
    That said, Labor supporters have been chastened by past disappointments, so I can understand Matthew Cole and others who daren’t assume that the win – which they badly want – is at hand. They’re like Geelong supporters awaiting this year’s AFL Grand Final, and then scacrely believing what they were seeing. Personally I’m in the Labor optimists’ camp. Bushfire Bill’s point that the Liberals haven’t won a poll for 15 months and have won 2 of the past 140 (?) is a clincher. Garry’s allusion to the journos willingness to make the call is also significant. It’s Imre Saluszinsky btw, and since he is very much a coalition supporter that adds something to his prediction. There are plenty of other straws in the wind as well. Note, the West – Labor’s problem State – is showing a swing of at least 4% away from the Government.
    I thought Rudd set the tone for the forthcoming two weeks in his interview with Tony Jones on Lateline on Thursday night. To use a cricket analogy, he played defensively to a couple of attempted yorkers from Jones, ignored the rubbish he bowled outside off stump, then played a couple of fine cover drives on his vision for the future, when the ball was pitched just right. I’m looking forward to the statement enlisting the co-operation of the States on the big service delivery areas – health, education, water, transport. Ultimately there will be plenty of difficulties in implementing this, but at least we’ll have a Federal Government that is trying, not one that wants merely to exploit and divide for its crude political advantage.
    Labor will win and it won’t be close!

  8. I am a life long Collingwood supporter so I am all too familiar with the “Collywobbles” ie having a game well won going into the final quarter but managing to find a way to lose, so I won’t believe Howard is gone until I hear his concession speech.
    However I do find reassuarance when I need it in the graphs at
    http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/elections/fed2007/polls2007/
    Ten months of polls consistently showing a Rudd win would need a monumental disaster to turn around in 2 weeks.
    Hanging out now for the next Newspoll.
    Although there might be quibbles about the methodolgy used in the AC Nielsen online poll the result was absolutely consistent with all of the other polls this year which I find reassuring. If it had shown the Libs well ahead then there would be reason to question its accuracy.

  10. Derek Corbett Says:

    Er. Ta. Thanks Charles. I’m off duty now.

    What are your plans for the party?

    I will listen to the count as I have many times before. I will listen to Howards concession speech. I will watch Labor celebrate from a distance and say to myself they deserve it, they got their act together and put in an electable leader , for the counties sake Howard had to go. I will hope for a Rudd government that is as good as the Keating government, but it will be a quite time for me, a time for reflection, I was once a rusted on Liberal party supporter.

    I think emotion ( liberal party) will replace cold hard logic ( labor has got to win this election).

    We are reaching the end game and really makes me sad to think about what Howard and the other right wing radicals have done to the Liberal party.

    Whitlam, Frazer, Hawk and Keating, all decent people in their own way. Howard; history will not treat him kindly.

  11. Mark @ 560

    We are all writers, Mark. I don’t know Peter and I am not aware of his works. Kindly inform me. If I have offended, I retract.

  12. 546
    judy

    Well done, the endless LIES about interest rates and one side being better economic managers have to be exposed, repeatedly if necessary.

    561
    charles Says:
    Howard; history will not treat him kindly.

    That is very true.

  15. I’m home from a good dinner aand am feeling much more sanguine than earlier. When Labor wins, if they win, the purges under the cloak of parliamentary privelege early in the new year will be rich and satisfying entertainment. I only hope Dolly Downer will be leading the shattered and humbled rump of the coalition to soak up all the righteous fury. I suspect Costello and Howard will be long gone, probaably sitting on the boards of big tobacco, big coal and various woodchippers.

  16. 546 Judy;

    Well done Judy, it annoys me how media types comment on things they know nothing about nor even bother investigating.

    For anyone wanting a simple and factual summary of Oz economic reform I recommend an article in the Age by Henry Haszler, research fellow in the School of Accounting, Economics and Finance at Deakin University.

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/imbalanced-accounts/2007/11/07/1194329315407.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

  17. charles, it’s very sad what Howard has done to your party. I’ll be frank, it’s not mine, nor would I claim Labor as mine these days, even though I will vote for them in the HoR, For two reasons, firstly, Howard’s dominance has produced a truly evil diminution of democracy across any number of domains, which, in my view, requires those who profess to be Liberal to go take a good long hard look at themselves, and figure out how to re-group; secondly, even though Rudd is clearly a control freak (I think I’m going to call him Rain Man), for now, he’s our control freak.

  18. Latest from Milne.

    [If Kevin Rudd is elected PM in two weeks, he’ll owe his high office in no small part to the effectiveness of his campaign to “ease the household squeeze”.

    Rudd has successfully left the impression with voters that he is the only political leader who’s been listening to their concerns about cost-of-living pressures. He’s also left the impression that, unlike John Howard, he’ll do something about these pressures.

    But will he? Or more importantly, can he?

    Certainly Siobhan Turney thinks so. Siobhan and her husband Brad were interviewed on the ABC’s AM program on the morning the Reserve Bank announced the sixth interest rate rise under the Howard Government since 2004.

    Siobhan agreed she’d have interest rates on her mind on November 24: “For sure,” she said. “While I understand that the Government isn’t solely responsible for the increase in mortgages, I do believe that Labor may well have an impact on some of those extra expenses . . . and make some strategic differences so that the average person’s cost of living is reduced.”]

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22737895-5005374,00.html

  19. Mark,
    That’s not me. I fear the Peter Fullers are proliferating, and I suppose I should apologise to my namesake, as he probably won’t want to be associated with my idiosyncratic views.
    Derek, I’m not offended, I am inclined to be a windbag, so the criticism is fair enough. In any case, if one leads with the chin……

  20. “554
    SeanofPerth Says:
    November 10th, 2007 at 10:27 pm
    Anyone seen this article?

    http://www.wsws.org/articles/2007/nov2007/rudd-n10.shtml

    “A Rudd Labor government is shaping up to be the most right wing in post World War II history.” ”

    Yes… This was from a Trotskist grouplet whose main claim to fame is that its one-time world leader, the late Gerry Healy, was the ugliest Trot thug ever, and yet managed to sh*g his way through the young female membership by telling them it was all for the revolution.

    http://www.whatnextjournal.co.uk/Pages/Healy/Contents.html

    One might have thought that these lefty parasites had thus excelled themselves in betraying the working classes, but Healy was replaced by an every more wretched character, whose main claim to fame is this:

    http://community.livejournal.com/trotskyism/3890.html

    Urrrhhhh…

  21. It’s late. It’s Saturday night, and everyone’s still waiting for more ‘news’, more numbers, more polls. more gaffes, more priceless pics of our illustrious PM standing over a woman on a shopping centre floor before he scurries away, but what the heck, this is important, so here goes!

    Throughout the day I got to read Paul Kelly’s piece in the GG today. It’s titled “The boom that got away” and for anyone interested it’s here: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22732678-28737,00.html

    Oddly enough I didn’t see any commentary about it here or elsewhere in the blogosphere, which is a pity because it really is a ‘must read’ piece. Kelly points out that the country is being lead by cowboys who gambled that they could ride back into power by throwing the surpluses of the last few electoral cycles into middle class welfare and endless tax cuts and not create inflation if their much heralded “Work Choices” could somehow drive up productivity (presumably by making unit labour costs lower, but I’ll leave that to the economically numerate to debate.) They gambled and they lost. But that’s not the worst of it, because they’ve now bequethed us such a corrupted political process, based on ignorance and greed, that this can go on forever. It can’t.

    Of course we all know that once Howard charged out of the gate with thirty something billion to spray around Rudd had no choice but to do the same, or get wedged with ‘high taxing’ Labor. So puff, up it went in smoke, more plasma screens than we know what to do with, and p!ss the surplus up against the proverbial wall.

    There are some of the best lines of newsprint in this entire campaign in Kelly’s piece today, and they bear thinking about:

    “The core Howard-Costello strategic misjudgment this term looks stark. They fuelled too much demand with too little supply-side reform. They misjudged the strength of the boom (like many chief executives) and redistributed too much income from the surplus into households while relying on Work Choices to act as a productivity-raising and anti-inflation weapon. It never came together, and this miscalculation may prove fatal. ”

    Of course Rudd gets tarred with the same brush, and I for one can only hope that he really (yes really!) is a fiscal conservative. Maybe we wake up on the 25th and he tells us we’ve been dreamin’ if we thought we’d be getting off with just spending our way to nirvhana.

    It’s worth thinking about.

  22. Sorry to all you K Rudd fans out there but i can’t trust him and don’t like him.
    I was only young when Labour were last in but i think they are a waste of time they only support the doll bludgers and who pays for it i do the low wage taxpayer.
    I am a employee and i have no problems with these new IR Laws GO JOHNNY your our number 1 leader.

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