The Age has published the third of ACNielsen’s online polls, which are taken from a representative sample of around 1400 volunteer market research subjects. It shows Labor leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, the same result as the previous such survey a fortnight ago. However, Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 45 per cent, with the Coalition also down a point to 40 per cent. John Howard has picked up three points on the preferred leader question directly at the expense of Kevin Rudd, whose lead is now 50 per cent to 42 per cent.
Glen…
Go bet some money on Howard then and post a screen capture of the receipt to photobucket or summin.
Put you money where your mouth is son.
Glen stop tellin porkies it would have been 44.8 – 49.6 🙂
John Rocket @ 466 wrote:
This is exactly why I want this government to be wiped out down to a small rump so that the mere mention of Howard and his ideology causes future liberal’s to recoil in horror. Australia the way its become under Howard is not a country in which I wish to live. And the gods help PM Rudd if he doesn’t do something about it!
Derek Corbett asked:
My tip for the result or my plans for the night?
Tip: ALP 91 seats, Wish: ALP: 110+
Plans: Spending the evening at a mad Lib mate’s place hopefully giving him heaps all night. He’s in Kingston so there’s a good chance he’ll have to live with one of those {{UNION BOSS}} “thugs” for the next decade. Life can be such a b*tch! 😉 Don’t normally drink but intend to on the 24th! 😉
And if I awake to find that $#@#% is still PM then I’m moving to NZ asap!
500 Grog. Mea culpa. But its still true! Eden-Monaro will be the first to go and he’s the “Special Minister for State”.
Alan Amo missed much better years before 1995….I arrived in 1980 and despite high interest rates, thought life here was fantastic. Shame he credits one man, but he could be forgiven having lived in a dictatorship.
It seems Nielsen and Gallaxy results favour the Libs and Newpoll and Morgan results favour Labor. Maybe the reason Nielson and Gallaxy were closer to the 2004 result was because the Libs won. While when Labor Wins the coming Election, Newspoll and Morgan will be closer to the final result
Thank goodness I get to do htv’s in a couple of remote booths this week. Probably won’t be able to resist casting my own vote while there. No doubt will also get an idea just what percentage have been disenfranchised.
He won’t be missed Diogenes.
And Wakefield will go to the ALP as well.
A lot of the Hong Kong Chinese who have come out in the past 20 years have been Howard supporters because they generally believe in unfettered capitalism – in other words support business at all costs. I am involved with quite a large group of them (unavoidable) and have taken the opportunity to remind them of Howard’s stance on Asian immigration in the past. AND of course some still remember Hansen.
But anyway they were all quite chuffed to see Rudd speak Chinese and Rudd gets a good airing on the Chinese satellite tv channels here.
China is the future of business, they know it, thats where they look, that is where they visit (often) and, Rudd is a symbol of that future. Generally speaking the impression of him is quite good and wide-spread among my Cantonese, Mandarin and Indonesian friends.
There is also a Chinese movement in Bennelong to get rid of Howard – it was reported on the BBC web-site. Generally speaking I believe Rudd’s Chinese connection is quite a positive among the Asian community.
My wife was simply fascinated to see Rudd speaking Madanrin to Hu JianTao and thought he spoke quite well. It is of course a novelty but wont be in the future. Even dear Amanda Vanstone spent a bit trying to learn ‘ni hao’.
Alan H, that’s exactly my reasoning behind putting money on Maxine before the rate rise we had to have!
It’s really a perfect storm for the rodent, isn’t it? And even funnier when we hear that the Cheshire Smirk was telling people there wasn’t going to be a rate rise!
Holy Sheet Batman, now there’s someone with his finger on the economic pulse!
Glen is just trying to rally the troops. If all they read is bad here it’s not good for their moral. Give them something to grasp onto.
What have the unions ever done for us? Find out… 🙂
http://www.kevin07.com.au/myblog/super-spoof-friday-2.html
Way off topic, but aside from the leaders, who has been the most positive for either side in the campaign so far?
Here’;s a few grades from me (feel free to flay me – they’re mostly based on bias!)
ALP:
Gillard A- (been great on TV – LL and Today, not so fantastic on the debate)
Garrett C- (very bad week, but very solid debate)
Roxon B- (hardly been sighted, but got in the quip of the campaign so far)
Swan A (very solid, hasn’t slipped up, and did very well in the debate)
Tanner B+ (hardly sighted, but when he is he looks the goods)
Smith ??? (unseen – where’s the education man been??)
Wong B- (not used much, but doing well on ABC radio every Friday)
the others I can’t be bothered with but Judwig murdered Ruddock in their debate.
LNP:
Costello B (all over the shop, good start, but his heart doesn’t look in it anymore; he looks like he has finally realised no one is listening)
Abbott D (he’s a QT headkicker, not a campaigner)
Turnbull C- (see Garrett)
Downer, Coonan, Minchin, Bishop, Brough, Truss, Nelson, Mcfarlane ??? (AWOL – though Downer has croped up and embarrassed himself a few times)
Andrews F (only seen once, never again)
Vale C (could have been a B, but the backwards baseball cap??)
Hockey C- (ok in the debate, but he’s selling a dog, and he knows it so umm… errr “Union Bosses!!”)
Have probably missed others, but that’s my quick review thus far.
If the list has gone, for the record …
89 seats to Labor
Classic Amaranthus
83 Seats to Labor
For the record,
red wombat at 271: “LUCY the sheep is behind bars after being arrested at a John Howard campaign event….”
The only sheep I want to see behind bars is Dolly, the cloned Member for Mayo, a dreadful genetic experiment gone wrong.
I’ve just put $75 on Maxine, y’all better be right!
It’s 7.22pm in Adelaide (7.52pm in Sydney/Tas?) , in 2 weeks at this time, what will be the case??? Very exciting.
ALP Yartz policy announced.
[LABOR pledged $34.6 million in new arts initiatives at a star-studded policy announcement in Sydney today.
If elected, Labor would spend $17 million over four years to set up an arts innovation centre, $10 million to promote the arts in Australian communities and $7.6 million to boost Aboriginal art centres.
Labor also said it would change visa requirements to encourage visiting international acts to use local artists as support.
Opposition arts spokesman Peter Garrett announced the initiatives at a live performance show at Parramatta in the city’s west.
A host of local talent turned out for the event, including actors Cate Blanchett and David Wenham, musician Sarah Blasko, former Hunters and Collectors frontman Mark Seymour and The Whitlams’ Tim Freedman – who all performed.
Mr Garrett, himself the former frontman of iconic Aussie band Midnight Oil, took aim at the Howard government over its treatment of the arts, saying it used the sector as a punching bag.
“Far and away the most pressing concern that has resonated through our arts community is the genuine lack of respect and support from the current government for artists,” he said.
Mr Garrett also singled out anti-terrorism laws, which have come under wide attack from the arts community for their impact on free speech, saying Labor would remove the term sedition from federal criminal law.
“A fundamental step in recognising the place of artists in our community is respecting the artistic voice and recognising the principle of artistic freedom of expression,” he said. ]
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22737052-5005361,00.html
Sean of Perth at 395 says: “I think at best the ALP will gain one seat in WA, and eat into the margins of others..”
Sean, maybe so, but I don’t think it’s gonna matter a flying f**k what a bunch of cashed-up mining-boom arrivistes in Perth do.
The entire Easten Seaboard has turned on Howard, and turned big-time.
We’re in for a once-in-a-generation massacre, whatever happens in the west.
If I have to wait for the WA results I will need to breathe into a paper bag.
All the ALP has to do is hold in WA.
I wouldn’t be surprised if by the time the polling shuts in WA Antony Green will be calling it for the ALP.
Sinic said:
But have you received one of her “begging letters”?
Apparently, she has sent a letter to (at least some of) her constituency, inviting
them to donate to keep the ALP forces as bay. She didn’t seem very happy when I saw her on the TV explaining how “above board” it all is.
#525
No, I didn’t receive that particular letter from her. But I spoke to her at a function last year, and she knows in no uncertain terms that I am not a Coalition supporter. Guess it would have been a waste of time sending me a letter. I got from her office the usual union bashing hate-mail though, which all electors would have received.
Does anyone actually know the answer to this from Peter Martin?
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/11/quick-quiz-whats-wrong-with-this-graph.html
Kina @ 510
Thanks for that report. Good luck.
When it comes to facts, I cannot rest easy in my bed at night knowing that the leader of our country is a racist.
What plan do you have for election night?
Julie,
So wish you were right about Abbott in Warringah-Labor’s Zochling’s profile not prominent around here,though a really good candidate.
Shame Peter Macdonald not standing this election as he would have raced home this time.
Grog Says:
November 10th, 2007 at 8:15 pm
Grog Says:
November 10th, 2007 at 8:15 pm
It doesn’t show the rates before labor came into power.
They peaked under the liberals ( howard was treasurer) fell through the Hawk/Keating years, have bottomed out in the Howard years and started to rise.
That still doesn’t give the full picture you need the international bank rate.
The difference was greatest under Howard as treasurer ( we had a closed economy) became 2% under Hawk/Keating who opened up the system and it has remained at about 2% since.
The full story is simple, Keating had the balls to open up the system.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007workplace/rudd-renews-ir-attack/2007/11/10/1194329550323.html
Well, is our public service that independent that they seriously released this data during the election, or has this been in Labors back pocket for the final run to the line?
wysiwyg Says:
November 10th, 2007 at 4:56 pm
The average IQ ( 100) is based on the US population. There is a small chance that the average IQ of Australian voters is higher. What worries me is the average IQ of the federal police is below 100 ( and I’m not making this up).
Am sure Sidonis saw the writing on the wall…am astute operator.Wonder if he tried to dissuade JWH from running again, but that Hyacinth prevailed,not wanting him underfoot?
Thanks Charles but I was wondering if there was anything actually wrong with the graph itself (aside from the political bias or cutting off at 83) eg the rates are wrong under the ALP, or the scale is skewed etc
#535
Redraw the graph starting at zero on the bottom left instead of 5 [I think thats the starting point I couldn’t see clearly] and see what difference it makes visually.
By starting at 5 and filling the paper up you create a visual impression that the contrast is much greater.
It exaggerates a small difference.
It’s shonky.
How to lie [ or create false impressions] with graphs 101.
Megan
Indeed. No doubt the history will spell it out, but by the vibe it appears Hyacinth er, … to put it this way … poked her nose into … into the job at hand … and is much miffed.
On the graph, the y axis is not zeroed. Accentuates the extent of the changes over time.
You reckon Jannette wanted John in the house 24/7?
Grog Says:
November 10th, 2007 at 9:04 pm
From a technical point of view I don’t think so. Chopping of the bottom bit off is legal.
There are lies, dam lies and graphs, I think that his is point. With that graph the lie is the missing bit at the start not the missing bit at the bottom.
I’ll try to explain in words.
Say you have 2 things/values, one worth 6 and one worth 10.
Starting at zero you can draw 2 graphs.
One is 6 cms high [for argument’s sake].
And the other is 10 cms high. Which APPEARS/LOOKS about twice the size of the other.
Now redraw them starting at 5.
The first is now 1 cm high.
The second is now 5 cms high.
It APPEARS/LOOKS 5 times bigger than the other.
But it isn’t.
Appearances [designed to] deceive.
Sully Says:
If the polls for the last 8 months point to 55% two party preferred and you got 62%, what would you do?
I think it shows integrity just to report it. I’d do another sample of 800.
Did anybody think Agenda on Sky today was biased?
Just today? How about EVERYDAY!
SkyNews LOVES Howard
I have a theory about the Morgan poll. A very long time ago, while I was at Uni, I had a part time job taking them. So did several of my mates. At the end of the last year we were at Uni, just before Stu Vac, some of these mates decided it would be a hoot to just fill out all of their polls in the Union, since it was the last one they would ever do (they hoped). I suspect that the results of that poll were a bit skewed as well!
cheers,
Alan H
i just got my two bits worth on talkback radio 5AA tonight, i’m used to giving interviews on radio and telly so i’m not shy or withdrawn under those circumstances,{ i press the switch and go into robot mode}
there were two political commentators with Aly the hostess and she bought up the Keating 17% interest rates, so yours truly rang and talked about the 22% rates and stagflation under Howard as treasurer, the commentators said i was quite correct and complimented me on how clearly i put it to them, Aly was stunned she remembered nothing of it at all, she was only a schoolie at that time, i told her about the basket case that Howard bequeathed Hawke and Keating and the way they pulled OZ out of the doo doo and how they set up the economy we have now, the commentators agreed with me and said people tended to forget that, others rang afterwards to confirm what i said– so i guess guys i dont feel quite so useless here now lol.
So, gentlemen. Which bit went where and what does it mean – in simple terms, please! Where is the missing bit? Has it been swifted away to other parts … seems to me the chook is dead and the giblets now stink.
Dam lies. The dam lies under water. Er, Damn you, Sir …
Sorry. Water. Dam.
Signed
Smartarse
Spelling police
Lot of people complaining the Labor adverts haven’t started.
I thought the first rule of politics was: If the other team is eating itself don’t get in the way. Why would labor want to do anything but let people watch the blood bath?
#
547
Derek Corbett Says:
#
547
Derek Corbett Says:
Ok
Lies, damn lies and graphs.
The missing bit is lying ( the spelling police said, don’t play with words you spelling criminal, and knocked me to the ground) on the cutting room floor.
548: That may be the case, but I subscribe to that horror movie cliche, no matter how dead the bad guy looks – shoot him again.
It’s funny hearing all of the moaning about the ads, down here in Sophie and Susie country we don’t get any meaningful amount of advertising from either side. Of course that may have something to do with the fact that even if the latest morgan face to face gave a uniform swing these two still wouldn’t be thrown overboard.
I spent last weekend in Jervis Bay, Joanna Gash territory, and couldn’t believe how many coalition ads there were on the telly. There were quite a few of the CFMEU ones and also the ‘how many times xxxx voted for workchoices’ one, but they were outnumbered by the illiberals at least two to one.