The Age has published the third of ACNielsen’s online polls, which are taken from a representative sample of around 1400 volunteer market research subjects. It shows Labor leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, the same result as the previous such survey a fortnight ago. However, Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 45 per cent, with the Coalition also down a point to 40 per cent. John Howard has picked up three points on the preferred leader question directly at the expense of Kevin Rudd, whose lead is now 50 per cent to 42 per cent.
Line honours?
I guess we can really only tell how good these online polls are after the election. They do seem to fit the general narrative and fall within the ranges of the other polls though.
Yay.
This poll certainly suggests to me that the narrowing in Newspoll is at the other end of an MOE around the 54-5 mark. In other words, nothing has happened since the beginning of the campaign.
Huge lead to Labor.
Just 2 more weeks.
Just 2 more weeks.
Night All,
GG – You wanted to play with the big dog, what can I say?
That means we have the morgan phone poll at 56/44
The Nielsen online @ 56/44
The Morgan F2F (which most people wanna discount 5 points) @ 62/38 adj to 57/43
Total sample works out to about 3000 voters
Narrowing is now at best an optical illusion caused by sitting to close to the computer screen
Narrowings exist. But the idea that they happen simply by virtue of the incumbent calling the election appears to be pure fantasy.
What can I say. Labor way ahead. Keep it going Kev. Don’t let up ever.
Umm.. someone please explain to me the difference between the regular ACN and the ACN online?
OMG the sky news online election coverage (linked from news ltd online sites) is only spruiking Howard Ministers!!!
The only thing narrowing for Howard is the time to Election day, when he can say I am sorry I didn’t win, but that is not an apology.
Blatant propaganda from Sky, but that is the nature of the beast. Lots of air time given to Labor bashing and little else
the buffer is holding. and this week has been a shocker for the coalition. this could possibly come off.
Same old same old, no change and no chance for Howie. Would be in everyone’s best interest to bring the election forward and get it over with. I don’t think I can stand another 14 days of watching the senile old fool bumbling around.
well, let’s think about this poll as if the results were reversed.
If the Coalition were up 56/44 2 weeks from an election, we’d all be crying into our beers. So why is it that some of us (including myself) still feel nervous about the election result?
let it end. i have to disagree with you there. i’m really quite enjoying it.
Funny Lathan was irrevelant to Libs last election, what has changed this time, maybe the Libs have something in common with Lathan, they are now irrevelant.
I took part in the ACN Online Poll. It’s conducted through their market research ‘Your Voice’ site and has questions at the beginning of the poll to get gender, age and location. Once their quota for each category is full you get a ‘thanks but no thanks’ message, so that side of the sampling is pretty good.
This Poll was pretty straight forward, with the only really interesting thing being that there were two preferred PM questions, one Howard vs Rudd and the second had the two front benches squaring off.
This research tool is mostly used for marketing stuff, so I guess if people are willing to pay for it the data mustn’t be too bad.
Swing @ 14
Tampa, children overboard, interest rates, Terrorists…Union Bosses
Howard strikes back.
http://davefromalbury.wordpress.com/2007/11/09/howard-has-a-bad-day-campaigning/
{OMG the sky news online election coverage (linked from news ltd online sites) is only spruiking Howard Ministers!!!}
This is Howard’s “rabbit out of the hat” his new “Tampa”.
Total media coverage for the Coalition and none for Labor.
Labor now reduced to myface and on-line blogs.
Now we get to the fun bit.
Will they tear each other apart, spontaneously self combust or carry on the narrowing mirage in a forlorn hope that planet delusional may just come true?
re 18
Did i mention they were all campaigns about a plan for the future?
Rudd now on sky
From the previous thread. Great picture.
Might see a bit of this on el;ection night.
{Drunken ‘ladettes’ boast of exploits online }
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=319457
In poker terms Howard has been blinded all-in (meaning run out of chips until he only had enough to post the compulsory blind/ante and not bet during the hand he was forced to play)
for poker players who visit this site check out more howard poker comparisons
http://www.texas-holdem-australia.com/?p=172
There isn’t a net feed of Sky?
mad cow
Try this link
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup
Augurs well, but the good fight is still being fought, back to the trenches. Rudds got to maintain the rage til election day. And we’ve got to tell ppl.
works 🙂
@ 11 Sinic Says:
Does anybody watch Sky News? Except shift workers I mean.
Re # 17 – I also took part in the ACN Online Poll via their Your Voice site. Voting intentions came early in the list of questions, so I played the ‘undecided’ card to see just where the poll would lead. As Dave from Albury said it was “relatively straightforward”. Quite credible in my view, apart from being slightly skewed by my unwillingness to declare my true colours.
A quick quizz.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/11/quick-quiz-whats-wrong-with-this-graph.html
Why should Skynooz get away with electioneering for the Liberal party? Doesn’t that make them corrupt?
50% of AWAs fail the fairness test:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22733701-601,00.html
“JOHN Howard’s industrial laws were branded a shambles last night, with the revelation that half of all wage deals checked by the Coalition’s workplace watchdog have failed the “fairness test” and been sent back to employers for correction.”
Rudd has got to go all out attack tomorrow over this.
“WorkChoices is bad for workers because it strips pay and conditions, bad for business because it is ridiculously complex, and bad for the government because it unnecessarily bloats the bureaucracy”
Rudd on Sky News
Try this link
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup
Will not be truly happy until the beast has a stake in the heart but this is good news. No narrowing.
Newspoll will be interesting, Shanahan can’t rort that can he?
Fun way of getting back at any enemies you have who happen to vote Labor
1. Visit public computer.
2. Complete form here:
http://www.liberal.org.au/contact/volunteer.php
Result: Victim’s ire directed at Liberal Party.
spot on showson!
More proof that not everybody is coping well under Howard.
“The study revealed that NSW accounted for the greatest proportion of insolvencies in the six months, with close to 50 per cent, with Victoria at 25 per cent. It also showed that companies with fewer than 20 employees accounted for 74.4 per cent of insolvencies in the first half of 2007, an increase of 6.9 per cent on the previous corresponding period.
A number of sectors have also seen an increase in insolvency numbers in the half-year, with agriculture, mining, construction, financial services, retail trade and wholesale trade all up.
The financial services sector accounted for the greatest proportion of insolvencies at 38.2 per cent, some 26.5 per cent ahead of the wholesale sector, which had the second-highest proportion of insolvencies in the first half.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22732427-643,00.html
Umm.. ahhh.. so.. when’s the next polls coming? 🙂
[Umm.. ahhh.. so.. when’s the next polls coming?]
Newspoll Tuesday.
Maybe an AC Nielsen phone-poll on Monday.
So 3 more newspolls and 2 more ACNs?
Even Bloomberg has tagged Howard as a potential casualty:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aVY1uFR0DGvw&refer=home
You know I think David Speers from Sky is really not too bad. I know a few people here can’t stand him, but he does a pretty good job considering the conservative audience that would watch Sky news (esp. the oldies).
Secondly : What’s this line from the Coalition that Labor has no plan to manage inflation? Rudd has been pretty clear in addressing the skills shortage and investing in infrastructure. Surely they can’t expect to get away with this line?
Morgan made an interesting point. Maybe the coalition is just playing into the hands of the Your Rights at Work Campaign when it tries to swing the debate back onto the economy.
“The renewed focus on finance and the economy would reinstate the industrial relations debate in voters’ minds, Mr Morgan said.”
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22733408-29277,00.html
Matt
I agree the coalition line on managing inflation is nonsense, but they aren’t “getting away with it” The poll result shows that most people see through it.
To me this poll is gold – much better than the 62/38 Morgan F2F, because I have worked with A C Neilsen and think they have a pretty good reputation for both being unbiased and accurate. Plug this one into Antony Green’s calculator and you won’t be far wrong.
Liberals, beat the rush and go there now – seek.com
Hi Shows On
just rang the Aus and spoke to quite a young journo and mentioned that the headline for this story totally misrepresented Brad Norringtons work:
“Red Tape strangling AWAs”
give me a break
the story is about the fact that 50% of deals are failing the “fairness test” ie,
“JOHN Howard’s industrial laws were branded a shambles last night, with the revelation that half of all wage deals checked by the Coalition’s workplace watchdog have failed the “fairness test” and been sent back to employers for correction.
The Workplace Authority confirmed 26,833 agreements had been knocked back for failing to comply with minimum standards since the Prime Minister introduced the fairness test in May.”
So how does a sub get to write the headline about red tape?
what a pathetic excuse for journalism this is
even the poor person i spoke too had no answer, except “the journalist doesn’t write the headline” – we know
I said that brad norrington is a good journalist and doesn’t deserve to have his work misrepresented by such a misleading headline (as we know that most punters don’t actually read articles)
and I asked this poor young journalist how she would feel if her work was marketed by such a misleading headline?
sorry to say but i asked her to read the story and if she could justify the headline she was quite entitled to stay at the aus, but otherwise she should find herself a job as a real journalist…
and then i mentioned shanahan’s nonsense…
its time these journos took accountability…
their work is being mediated and they should come over to the free world of the blogs….
but then they wouldn’t be paid to toe the party line…
bon nuit
Well, I’ve been a sceptic for a while, not believing that Labor can win, hoping for all I’m worth that I’m wrong, but today I’m calling it.
Howard can’t win from here. Full stop, End.
Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay!!!
[Morgan made an interesting point. Maybe the coalition is just playing into the hands of the Your Rights at Work Campaign when it tries to swing the debate back onto the economy.]
Rudd needs to go harder on that point that Howard says WorkChoices will limit wage increases to the most productive areas of the economy.
This is an admission that WorkChoices will (in real terms) cut wages for low and middle income earners.
Looking at the last series of polls for the Liberal party primary:
Morgan……..36.5,37,37,38,36.5,31.5,36
the Galaxy……37,37,34,36,39,37
AC Neilsen……39,41,39,37,40,42,41,41,40 [not seperate from Nats]
Newspolls…….36,34,37,36,36,34,38,37
Together they seem to show the Liberal primary tailing off – There is a little hint here that three weeks into the campaign we have reached ‘peak’ Liberal party primary. They got a little boost when the election was called and nothing else.
They only disturbing thing is the drop in Labor primary by 2% gone to probably the Greens. Hopefully just a sample variation – better to have the primary firmly attached.
Howard looks to me looks like he hasn’t had a good week – cannot see any reason why anybody would decided to move to the LNP. Unless it is because Skynews, ABC and the GG electioneering for Howard.